Thursday, December 1, 2016

Global SITREP E2-16: Red Lines Are Red Lines

Russian S-400 Triumf (NATO Name SA-21 Growler)  at Khmeimim Air Base, Syria
1 December 2016: Early yesterday morning Israel time a pair of IAF strikes occurred on both a Syrian military target near Damascus, and on the Damascus-Beirut Highway against a Hezbollah-bound weapons convoy. Most reports indicate these strikes were launched while the IAF's F-15I 'Ra'am' strike aircraft were in Lebanese air space. This is likely due to an existing and very explicit understanding between Russia and Israel; had the IAF aircraft launched the strikes while in Syrian airspace the Russian S-400 air defense system at Khmeimim Air Base would have been obliged to fire upon the Israeli aircraft. The long and short of it is that Israel's red-line on the transfer of advanced weaponry to Hezbollah in Lebanon from Syria remains intact, as does the Russian commitment to defend Bashar al-Assad's military forces from airstrikes launched in Syrian airspace.

IAF F-15I Ra'am strike aircraft

My only technical analysis note is that the image at the top clearly illustrates a pair of radar emitters (Kasta 2E radar on the left and PRV-13 altimeter on the right) seen between the vertically deployed missile TELARs are not normally known to be associated with a foreign deployed S-400 system. They indicate a possible reduced capability to detect targets between 20 and 65 miles distant at altitudes between 328 and 3,280 feet in altitude. These two systems may be only for point defense of the Khmeimim Air Base against low flying fixed or rotary wing aircraft and/or cruise missiles.

Details on these pre-dawn strikes strongly indicate that the main arsenal for the elite Syrian 4th Division in As-Saboura was struck simultaneously with the Hezbollah weapons convoy. One could very reasonably assume that the 4th Division arsenal was the source of the weapons transfer and the convoy the enroute weapons themselves.  As is normal the Israel Ministry of Defense will neither confirm or deny the strikes took place. Nevertheless, the Israeli-Russian understanding contains no illusions as to what Israel's very real red-lines are or the fact that direct military action will be immediate when those lines are crossed. Wednesday morning's IAF action proves this beyond question. 

It is also apparent to Eschatology Today that the lessons Israel gave the Syrian dictator in early 2013 have been ignored by his regime and Iranian/Hezbollah allies, who, not coincidentally, have been actually running things in Syria for quite some time now. This type of military action guarantees the greater conflagration Israel's ancient prophets tell us is soon to arrive (Isaiah 17, Jeremiah 49:23-27). These are appointments of the Lord's prophetic calendar. Of particular note right now are the very similar circumstances in Wednesday's strikes and those that occurred a mile or two away in Damascus' suburb Qudssaya in late January 2013 which came to mind immediately once As Saboura was located on the map. For reference details see the contents found in: The "Morton Salt Scenario" (When It Rains, It Pours) and Global SITREP A11-13: No 'Game Changer' for Hezbollah/IRGC .

14 comments:

Anonymous said...

Our thanx Sean for once again your rapid and deep analysis on this breaking event development in Syria.

I maybe way "downunder" here near the ends of the earth, but Messiah Jesus often seems to have us two on a similar frequency in thinking about strategic events occuring in the mid east etc.

May Messiah Jesus bless us all, His truely born again people, and more importantly PREPARE US ALL FOR HIS IMMANENT RETURN VERY SOON 😅 , amen.

Darrin Crouch said...

Sean, my commiserations for your family's loss, but the blessing is your mother suffers no more and indeed has her health and wellbeing restored to levels no man alive has known.

As for your latest update, it reminds us of the daily risks that Israel must guard against. I'm gathering that it might well expect a return to the cooperation under Trump's watch that is detailed in your Hezbollah Game Changer post. The troubling signs that I'm hearing about from Caroline Glick etc is that Obama might well pull a final act of betrayal through the UN Security Council before Jan 20, by restoring the 1967 borders. Is that what you're hearing over Stateside?

Darrin

Sean Osborne said...

Obama had better watch he's p's and q's for the next 50 days. 'Nuff said about that.

Not even sworn in yet and the Trump presidency is already making its presence manifest in several areas. Our troops will get the pay raise that Zero long denied them in January. Across the board our armed forces will be regenerating serious combat power, and to top it all off, General James "Mad Dog" Mattis will be the new U.S. SECDEF.

Jihadists of any sect of Islam, particularly the apocalyptic Shi'ite mullahs of Iran, had better sit upright and take very close and careful notice - their life expectancy will very soon depend upon it.

Sean Osborne said...

Keeping one eye open on the constitutional referendum vote tomorrow in Italy as it will almost certainly have prophetic implications, and PM Matteo Renzi is an important figure to watch also. If "yes" votes win Renzi will likely achieve almost dictatorial powers.

jmoll106 said...

Sean, with the past is prologue theme, Rome, Italy was reigning during the destruction of Jerusalem, is it possible for the Dan 9 prince who is to come to come from there.

Also, I hope you and your family have felt the comfort of the Lord these past few days.

Sean Osborne said...

"And the people of the prince who is to come shall destroy the city and the sanctuary." Daniel 9:26

It was a handful of Roman legions, specifically, Legio X Fretensis (10th Legion) which besieged and destroyed Jerusalem and the 2nd Temple.

Shall we or anyone else parse the prophetic Word of God delivered by the angel Gabriel?

No.

Miriam said...

Thought I'd share this article and video about the pillar of cloud that appeared along the Golan border to protect Israel from Isis: https://www.breakingisraelnews.com/79560/biblical-pillar-cloud-appears-golan-proving-hand-god-protects-israel-isis/#xooic0emwYfkdg3d.97

My deepest sympathies on the loss of your mother. I too lost my 89 year old mother suddenly and unexpectedly in October. I held her hand in the ICU as she passed. Her heart was restarted and she was rescuscitated several times before we were advised that it was only the medications and machines that were keeping her alive and she had undoubtedly sustained significant brain damage due to lack of oxygen. I was in prayer throughout that traumatic experience that Jesus would reveal Himself to her during that time. My husband was on his knees in our house praying the same. My faith is in God that His will has been done.

jmoll106 said...

The video was amazing, you could tell the IMF soldiers were amazed at what they were seeing.

Great Grany 5 said...

Sean and Miriam,

20 years ago, on 11 Dec, 2006 my precious mother passed also into the cherished presence of her Savior and it is still a great big I MISS HER SO MUCH every day. I know where she determined she wanted to spend eternity and it was a glorious home going that evening. I say that to let you know I feel for all that say goodby to cherished loved ones but this season is especially difficult if we let it rob us of our God given Joy.

I kinda hope that Jesus just might step out on that gorgeous cloud to shout all of us who believe, out of here! But then I also have to remember that God has a work to complete in each and everyone of us before HE gives that command. One thing about it and then I will be quiet for a little while; this season is so alive with big time questions from the unbelieving world that I think the harvest is more than ripe and ready for harvesting.

Don't fail to share no matter how silly you might think your response or the timing is! God has assigned his Heavenly Hosts to assist in getting the saved into the Gates and none of us are ever going to be perfect while our feet are planted on on terra firma earth.

GG5/Shalom

Sean Osborne said...

The Italian "Io Dico No" (I Say No) side to the referendum (populists) have won. Italian PM Matteo Renzi has resigned.

First came Brexit, then the Trump revolution, now the Italians have joined in. France and Germany are coming along soon.

This is incredible, (no pun intended) but, don't blink or you might miss something.

Lance said...

Sure seems like the feet of iron & clay are reaching critical mass.

Lance

Anonymous said...

FYI: Eschatology Today was quoted in a recent Daymond Duck column on Rapture Ready's web site:

Good News
http://www.raptureready.com/featured/duck/dd255.html

- Brian from Florida

Sean Osborne said...

Good News - By Daymond Duck

The input into my keyboard was as the Holy Spirit led in the quoted excerpt of Global SITREP D12-16...

"One of the first things this group should advise and act upon is the establishment of a National Day of Prayer in Repentance. They should also meet in the Oval Office and dedicate through prayer to God that room as being the point where the Lord's will be done in our country. America must get on its knees and we must lead the prayers for national repentance."


Sean Osborne said...

Yesterday at Hezbollah's camp in the abandoned city of Zabadani and early this morning at the Mezze military airport west of Damascus very significant precision attacks have taken place.

I surmise that only Israel possesses this kind of precision ordnance.

The Hezbollah camp was obliterated through a series of very powerful missile strikes, and secondary detonations at Mezze Airport indicate a major weapons depot was struck in additional missile strikes, likely from orbiting aircraft.