Wednesday, February 8, 2012

Exercise Bold Alligator 2012

In this AP Photo taken on the beach at Camp Lejeuene, N.C. by Steve Helber, Private Deepak Shrestha, a native of Nepal serving in the French Foreign Legion, talks with U.S. Marine Lance Corporal Eric Leyda of Byers, Colorado in front of his M1A2 Abrams main battle tank. Also pictured is 1st private Felix Malvez, a native of Colombia, also a French Foreign Legionnaire.






08 February 2012: Sure looks to me like we're witnessing the first operational stages of the literal fulfillment of Jeremiah 49:34-39. In preparation for seaborne combat in that region of the world Exercise Bold Alligator 2012 went into execution this week. Here are a couple of Israeli reports on this exercise.

DEBKAfile: "Bold Alligator 2012" drills 20,000 troops on US East Coast for Persian Gulf action

Key excerpt:







Some 20,000 marines, seamen and air crews from half a dozen countries, a US nuclear aircraft carrier strike group and three US Marine gunship carriers are practicing an attack on a fictitious mechanized enemy division which has invaded its neighbor. It is the largest amphibian exercise seen in the West for a decade, staged to simulate a potential Iranian invasion of an allied Persian Gulf country and a marine landing on the Iranian coast. Based largely on US personnel and hardware, French, British, Italian, Dutch, Australian and New Zealand military elements are integrated in the drill.

The Arutz Sheva (INN) report: Is Bold Alligator Eyeing Tehran?

Key excerpt:





The exercise scenario takes place in a fictional region known as “Treasure Coast,” with a country called Garnet, a theocracy, invading its neighbor to the north, Amberland, which calls for international help to repel the attack. While commanders say the scenario is not based on any particular country, observers note it includes the threat of mines, anti-ship missiles and small boats in coastal waters. Military analysts say such a scenario and foe bears a striking resemblance to Iran and its naval forces, as well as its likely strategy should Tehran move to close the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz. When asked by reporters last week, Harvey (Admiral John Harvey, Commander, U.S. Fleet Forces Command) acknowledged that the exercise scenario was “certainly informed by recent history” and that it was “applicable” to the Strait of Hormuz, as well as other areas.
And this from the Navy Times "Scoop Deck": Operation Bold Alligator 2012 underway





Conceptually, the forces at sea are currently in the early stages of planning an attack on enemy forces from the fictional country of Garnet, a common enemy in what military officers call the “Treasure Coast” scenario. A mechanized Garnetian division has invaded the neighboring country of Amber, and is pushing north toward Amberland, which has asked for coalition assistance to stop advance. Garnet already has mined several harbors and established anti-ship missiles on the coastline, military officials said.





Analysis: If you ask me, the fictional country Garnet most definitely is the Islamic Republic of Iran and the fictional country Amber/Amberland that has been invaded - and please refer to the map I included above - is the Musandam Peninsula, also known as the Al Batinah coast on the Gulf of Oman, which is shared by both the UAE and Oman. Iran's military forces would need to take and hold that strategic peninsula in order to effectively have any chance of closing the Straits of Hormuz as they have repeatedly threatened. A coalition of nations led by the United States is currently conducting anexercise known as "Bold Alligator" on the Virginia/North Carolina coastline. This exercise features precisely the type of force that would be required to put an end to an Iranian invasion of that peninsula and to re-open the Strait of Hormuz.



Directly related previous "work-in-progress" blog item: Jeremiah 49: Will a Coalition of Nations Move Against Iran? (Updated)

13 comments:

Sparrow said...

I'm getting excited! Things really seem to be heating up now! We're living in very strange,unusual, and interesting times.

hartdawg said...

It is my belief that Jeremiah 49 explains why iran is not in psalm 83. Is this the beginning of Jeremiah 49? I dont know. perhaps it is. if so then we really need to start getting busy with the Lord's work. keep us posted sean. When these things start happening people will know longer be able to deny God's word as truth.

Anonymous said...

Sean,

Could you elaborate a bit on the passage from Jeremiah? How do you see this passage about to be fulfilled? How do you understand it being fulfilled in relation to Ezekiel 38,39? How do you see the captivity and eventual return aspect happening?

SeanOsborne said...

Anon wrote:

"Could you elaborate a bit on the passage from Jeremiah?"

My bad Anon. I assumed that most visitors to this blog were already aware of the original "work-in-progress" exegetical blog item of 15 September 2010 as well as the update from this past October, Jeremiah 49: Will a Coalition of Nations Move Against Iran? (Updated)

Thanks for giving me a reminder to create the direct link between them. That was my original intent, but I got busy with other things instead. I'll get that link up immediately.

Great Grany 5 said...

Sean,
In that Jeremiah passage of chapter 49 it states: "2. Against Elam I will bring the four winds from the four quarters of heaven, And scatter them toward all those winds;
There shall be no nations where the outcasts of Elam will not go.
37 For I will cause Elam to be dismayed before their enemies And before those who seek their life."
I noticed that 'heaven' was not capitalized and assume it means earth's heavens. Will do more searching but if I am reading this correctly, God will bring the nations together for this assult on Elam. Elam is now Bushehr isn't it? The very location of the cyberattack on Iran's nuclear manufacturing plant.

If all of this is foretold in Jeremiah 49, that would mean that Israel does not go it alone on Iran.
Now you have my interest whetted and it is very much needed that all of us get serious about interceding for all concerned. Timing and being in the perfect will of God is so very important.

GG5

hartdawg said...

Hey sean...i just deleted a comment because it came out all wrong and sounded more like fear mongering. i just wanted to ask about the probability of the straight of hormez being shut down and how long that would last and could are military prevent it from happening? there's a lot of fear mongering in the media these days.

SeanOsborne said...

hartdawg asks:

"i just wanted to ask about the probability of the straight of hormez being shut down"

In my opinion Iran will be more likely to make a token attempt to shut down the Strait of Hormuz and it would last for a few hours, perhaps a single day at most. Most of that closure time would be due to Coalition air and naval forces executing the process of neutering Iran's ability to threaten commercial shipping.

Of course, if a real world 'Bold Alligator' amphibious operation on the Oman and the UAE's Musandam Peninsula became necessary then a partial closure of a few days or a week might be possible. It would depend on how large of a force Iran landed and how quickly we could counter it. I believe we have the forces in position to do just that.

Remember, in the article above I wrote, "Iran's military forces would need to take and hold that strategic peninsula in order to effectively have any chance of closing the Straits of Hormuz." Iran might temporarily take it, but holding it is out of the question.

Anonymous said...

Thank you Sean.

So do you understand the inhabitants of "Elam" to be taken en masse to nations as captives?

SeanOsborne said...

Anon,

No, that is not the interpretation I agree with. I read the KJV and the YLT versions.

The KJV of verse 39 reads:

"But it shall come to pass in the latter days, [that] I will bring again the captivity of Elam, saith the LORD."

The YLT version of verse 39:

"And it hath come to pass, in the latter end of the days, I turn back [to] the captivity of Elam, An affirmation of Jehovah!'"

I take these two verses literally.

Anonymous said...

Let me try to understand this. How do you understand the latter portion of verse 36? Thanks in advance:

Jer 49:36 And upon Elam will I bring the four winds from the four quarters of heaven, and will scatter them toward all those winds; and there shall be no nation whither the outcasts of Elam shall not come...

Jer 49:39 But it shall come to pass in the latter days, [that] I will bring again the captivity of Elam, saith the LORD.

SeanOsborne said...

Anonymous said...

"Let me try to understand this."

Read the original post in full, it is all there in plain English.

If you were somebody other than "Anonymous" I might work with you differently. As it is, do your homework.

Anonymous said...

Hi

Very interesting your blog. I'm 1CL F.Malvez (colombian) and in the picture of the 2 legionnaires and the USMC marine you switched the names of the 2 legionnaires. Actually I'm watching while the two others are talking.
Thank you.

F. Malvez

SeanOsborne said...

Hi Felix,

Ok, I'll take your word for it. The caption under the photo is directly from the Associated Press report, but I'll revere the order of the names on your say-so. Thanks.