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| Image capture: Masyaf, Syria 13MAY22 |
2nd Update Below 16 May 2022: Turning a watchman's gaze to Syria... again.
This past Friday the IAF repeatedly struck an underground bunker and tunnel complex is the vicinity of Masyaf, Hama Province, Syria. This facility struck was constructed after previous IAF strikes destroyed similar structures in this area.
These strike completely obliterated the newly constructed bunker and tunnel complex. Initial reports are of several dead and many wounded in the Friday strikes. The nine dead and dozen wounded in the strikes are presumed to be Syrian, Iranian/IRGC and Iraqi Shi'a militia and Lebanese Hezbollah. A Pantsir air defense system and its crew which were targeting inbound IAF missiles and aircraft was also annihilated.
The assessment is that retaliation is a certainty.
17 MAY 2022: The war alert level is higher than assessed previously.
In the past week intelligence collection has discovered that Iran has successfully transferred a number of Kh-55 Granat (Soumar) cruise missiles to Hezbollah in Lebanon. These cruise missiles we've noted previously, were reverse engineered from their original nuclear-capable Russian design.
Hezbollah, or IRGC troops in Lebanon, can utilize these weapons to strike as Israel's off-shore oil and gas platforms or any other strategic target in Israel that would fit in their determined Order of Battle (OOB).
This intelligence discovery immediately preceded the series of strikes at the now eliminated underground facilities and tunnel complex around Masyaf, Hama Province in Syria last on 13 May. Locating the surviving Kh-55s is certainly a very high priority for the IDF. Additional strikes are a certainty, and one of which could ignite the expected fulfillment of the parallel Isaiah 17 and Jeremiah 49:23-27 prophecies.
UPDATE 18 MAY 2022: Reports have begun to emerge that Russia fired an S-300 (NATO Name: SA-10 GRUMBLE) air defense missile at an IAF F16I Sufa strike aircraft during its attack on the underground bunker complex at Masyaf on 13 MAY.
The SA-10 missed its intended target for one of two possible reasons. Either the Russian's radar lock-on was never achieved (indicating possible Syrian operation of the battery), or the F-16I Sufa's Electronic Warfare Counter-Measures (EWCM) sent the Russian missile off chasing phantom ghosts. The second reason seems the most plausible.
The bottom line here is two-fold: The F-16I Sufa returned to base safely and the Russian S300/SA-10 Grumble battery at Hmeimim has finally fired upon Israeli aircraft striking Iranian targets in Syria in anger. A secondary outcome is also likely to present itself shortly, and that is Israel's practice of informing Russia in advance when its aircraft will strike Iranian targets in Syria will be abandoned thereby increasing the risks of a direct Israel-Russia military clash in Syrian skies.
