Global SITREP D10-19: IRAN

PMU Kata'ib Hezbollah Vehicle-mounted
Katyusha rocket launcher.

UPDATED 30 December 2019: "We must also use this opportunity to remind Iran's leaders that any attacks by them, or their proxies of any identity, that harm Americans, our allies, or our interests will be answered with a decisivie US response,"  This was the statement made by US SECSTATE Mike Pompeo on Friday, 13DEC19.

Following weeks of smaller yet consistent attacks on US-led CJTF-OIR forces based in Iraq, the Kata'ib Hezbollah (an Iranian PMU proxy militia of Shi's Iraqis) launched a much larger attack on the joint US-Iraqi CJTF-OIR K1 base northwest of Mosul. This weekend's attack involved a volley of two to three dozen Katyusha artillery rockets. The image above is the actual launch vehicle captured after the attack. In the attack one US civilian contractor was killed and several US Army soldiers were wounded. The Iranian enemy and it's PMU proxy forces should have heeded the SECSTATE'S explicit warning.

USAF F-15E Strike Eagle

Within 24-hours of the K1 attack the US response occurred against five Kata'ib Hezbollah rocket, command and control (C2) and munitions depot bases. Three of the bases were located near Al-Qaim in the western Anbar Province of Iraq, and the other two were in Deir Ezzor province in eastern Syria. A group of USAF F-15E 'Strike Eagles' obliterated those Kata'ib Hezbollah bases, killing more than two-dozen militiamen, and wounding forty others. The dead included three IRGC-QF rocket artillery officers who almost certainly planned the K1 Katyusha attack.

SECSTATE Pompeo and SECDEF Esper both briefed President Trump last night in Mar-A-Lago, Florida on the strike and the U.S. military planning should additional enemy strikes occur. Reports this morning from Iraq indicate that a mobilization of IRGC-QF-led PMU forces in Iraq and Syria is underway. With just two days left in 2019, this SITREP will likely continue into 2020 as "Global SITREP A1-20: IRAN - PART II." 

08 December 2019: This morning PM Netanyahu began his Cabinet meeting by discussing the threat posed by Iran. The Arutz Sheva (INN) report is linked here. The official Government of Israel report is here. 

To recap, the PM said that this past week's discussions with both US and Russian leaders (Trump, SECSTATE Pompeo and Putin) the topic of the Iranian threat was the central issue addressed. He also reiterated that Israel, with or without the consent of others powers (i.e. the EU) "Israel will not allow Iran - at any stage - to develop nuclear weapons." This position is 100 percent in agreement with President Trump's policy. 

PM Netanyahu also addressed the renewed rocket fire into Israel yesterday, and for which the IAF pummeled multiple locations inside Gaza. Netanyahu said the previous retaliatory bombing and artillery attacks into Gaza against HAMAS and the PIJ (Operation Black Belt) "were just for starters. I have instructed the Defense Minister and the IDF to prepare accordingly." 

The U.S. this past week launched an immediate and deadly counter-fire operation against the Iranian'led PMU forces which attacked Balad Air Base in Iraq with rockets. Those rocket launchers no logner exist.  

02 December 2019: The Shi'a Twelver regime in Iran appears to be ready to commence with mass public executions, many of them by hanging. Those to be executed number in the hundreds to a thousand or more. Independent word smuggled out of Iran puts the number of protestors taken prisoner by the regime all over the country at 12,000. 

The NCRI and MEK opposition groups are claiming to be a significant factor in this uprising against the Ayatollah and his totalitarian theocracy. On the 15 November 2019 the regime enacted gasoline price increase with the instantaneous response from the people being rioting in over 187 cities across the country. A map posted within SITREP D8-19:The Quickening illustrated the nationwide nature of these protests. The protests became a full-scale anti-regime uprising when regime forces began shooting protestors in the streets, some by head shot sniper fire.

Yesterday PM Netanyahu and President Trump spoke by telephone specifically about the unrest in Iran. There appears to be agreement that the Iranian attack on Saudi Aramco oil processing facilities in September was an attempt by the regime to draw attention away from the severe difficulties in the country caused by the ongoing collapse of the JCPOA, US withdrawal from it and the dire economic situation the re-imposing of sanctions have caused. 

At 02:50 EST this morning, the Prime Ministers Office released this video. It is a very strong indication of the discussion that took place between President Trump and PM Netanyahu. Mention of Iran's race to breakout a nuclear weapons capability highlights the principle concern; the warning to "stop now" is an imperative.

To be continued...

Global SITREP E1-19: Conflict in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea

TOP Image: Greek and Internationally recognized East Med EEZs
Bottom Image: Turkish unilaterally imposed East Med EEZs

UPDATE 28 December 2019: As noted in the last paragraph of theoriginal 3 December posting, there are significant issues to be addressed and they grow more critical day by day. 

On the front lines in the outskirts of Tripoli there are Turkish soldiers (supporting the GNA) in urban combat against Russian mercenaries of the ChVK Wagner Group (supporting the LNA). The Russians are the spearhead of the LNA offensive. 

The fighting has escalated in Tripoli and Misrata with the news that new deployments of Turkish Army troops, Turkomen militia from northwestern Syria, and ships of the Turkish Navy are enroute to join the battle. There they will oppose the Haftar-led LNA that has been buttressed by more Russian mercenaries, counter-drone technology, Egyptian armor and UAE UCAV aircraft. The Turkish military deployments are in response to the slow but steady advance of LNA forces westward. 

20 December 2019: Egyptian Navy has conducted exercises in the Mediterranean Sea that include submarine-launched Harpoon cruise missiles. The exercises simulate naval warfare against the Turkish Navy.

Egypt has also deployed T-72 tanks to Haftar's LNA Army for their offensive to liberate Tripoli and Sirte from GNA militias. The LNA has given a 72-hour ultimatum for the militias to withdraw from both cities. 

8 December 2019: On the sidelines of the NATO Summit in London last week, direct talks between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Greek President Kyriakos Mitsotakis failed to find a resolution to the Eastern Mediterranean Sea exclusive economic zone (EEZ) crisis. No great surprise here, as the Greeks have noted to the international community, there isn't a neighboring country on any Turkish border that is not in a bilateral conflict with Turkey. 

By way of publication in the Turkish Government's Official Gazette and ratification by the Turkish Parliament, the Istanbul Accord, a maritime exclusive economic zone agreement between Turkey and Libya's internationally recognized GNA government in Tripoli, Libya went into effect yesterday to divide the Eastern Mediterranean Sea between them. Erdogan also announced yesterday that accord has been delivered to the United Nations by Turkey.

Greece, which views the Accord as a violation of its sovereign rights and having no legal standing in international law, expelled the Libyan GNA Ambassador Mohamed Menfi. Ambassador Menfi has until Monday to depart from Greece. 

For his part, Greek President Mitsotakis said the Turkish move in denying Greek sovereignty over its many islands has placed Turkey in "unprecedented diplomatic isolation." Greece has announced it will use military force to immediately halt any Turkish oil or gas drilling in the sea southeast of Crete. The application of a European Union sanctions regime against Turkey is also imminent.

3 December 2019: Last week Turkey and the Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli, Libya signed a military pact that essentially divides the whole Eastern Mediterranean Sea between them. Eschatology Today will refer to this pact as the 'Istanbul Accord.' 

As if the Middle East didn't need another point of conflict that could spark a war between two supposed NATO allies (Greece and Turkey), the Turkish government of Recep Tayyip Erdogan with a single stroke of their pen annexed a massive swath of the Greek economic zone. For their part the Greeks describe the Istanbul Accord as being "ridiculous." 

The Turkish action is noted in the Eschatology Today map above (click to enlarge). It is in the stripped fluorescent yellow portion. This map is based upon initial reports of the Istanbul Accord as none has as yet been published by Turkey or the GNA. The Turks claim their maritime border now extends from southwestern Turkey all the way across the Eastern Mediterranean Sea to the Libyan coast line of Derna (Darnah) and Tobruk (i.e. all of the Libyan coast to the Egyptian border).

The Istanbul Accord pretends as if the Greek island of Crete and hundreds of other Greek islands going back into antiquity simply no longer exist. Greek citizens inhabit all of those sovereign Greek islands. Eschatology Today would liken Erdogan's Istanbul Accord to that of Adolf Hitler's 1938 military annexation (invasion) of the Czechoslovakian Sudetenland. 

The Istanbul Accord also involves Israel and Cyprus who are, as we've discussed here before, in a military alliance with Greece. The Turkish move directly threatens the proposed gas and oil pipelines between Israel and Cyprus to the Greek mainland and European Union Markets. This move also occurred just prior to the NATO Summit of this week, and alliance fallout is likely to be severe against Turkey, not to mention European Union anger at what the Turks have done. Current levels of EU sanctions against Turkey stand a very good change of becoming far more harsh. Turkey's status within NATO is also in peril. 

Additionally, the Istanbul Accord tosses a wrench into the Berlin peace talks scheduled for January 2020 between the two governments in the Libyan Civil War. Most international recognition is with the GNA Tripoli government led by Fayez Sarraj, while an assortment of other nations, including Russia, Egypt and the UAE are militarily supporting the eastern Libyan National Army (LNA) in Benghazi under Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar's leadership (whom we've also discussed previously). There are approximately 1,500 Russian Wagner Group mercenaries that have intervened in the war to fight alongside Haftar's LNA. Armed UAE drones also routinely bomb the Tripoli airport. The Istanbul Accord is likely to cost the GNA in Tripoli dearly in terms of international recognition.

The prophetic implications are obvious and numerous, touching on the fulfillment of Scripture from Daniel through Ezekiel. The issues between Turkey and Russia alone stand out profoundly so that clearly major changes will have to occur for the Magog Confederation to materialize as many interpret Ezekiel 38/39 indicating Turkey being part of that confederation (also discussed in-depth previously on Eschatology Today).