Global SITREP E1-19: Conflict in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea

TOP Image: Greek and Internationally recognized East Med EEZs
Bottom Image: Turkish unilaterally imposed East Med EEZs

UPDATE 28 December 2019: As noted in the last paragraph of theoriginal 3 December posting, there are significant issues to be addressed and they grow more critical day by day. 

On the front lines in the outskirts of Tripoli there are Turkish soldiers (supporting the GNA) in urban combat against Russian mercenaries of the ChVK Wagner Group (supporting the LNA). The Russians are the spearhead of the LNA offensive. 

The fighting has escalated in Tripoli and Misrata with the news that new deployments of Turkish Army troops, Turkomen militia from northwestern Syria, and ships of the Turkish Navy are enroute to join the battle. There they will oppose the Haftar-led LNA that has been buttressed by more Russian mercenaries, counter-drone technology, Egyptian armor and UAE UCAV aircraft. The Turkish military deployments are in response to the slow but steady advance of LNA forces westward. 

20 December 2019: Egyptian Navy has conducted exercises in the Mediterranean Sea that include submarine-launched Harpoon cruise missiles. The exercises simulate naval warfare against the Turkish Navy.

Egypt has also deployed T-72 tanks to Haftar's LNA Army for their offensive to liberate Tripoli and Sirte from GNA militias. The LNA has given a 72-hour ultimatum for the militias to withdraw from both cities. 

8 December 2019: On the sidelines of the NATO Summit in London last week, direct talks between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Greek President Kyriakos Mitsotakis failed to find a resolution to the Eastern Mediterranean Sea exclusive economic zone (EEZ) crisis. No great surprise here, as the Greeks have noted to the international community, there isn't a neighboring country on any Turkish border that is not in a bilateral conflict with Turkey. 

By way of publication in the Turkish Government's Official Gazette and ratification by the Turkish Parliament, the Istanbul Accord, a maritime exclusive economic zone agreement between Turkey and Libya's internationally recognized GNA government in Tripoli, Libya went into effect yesterday to divide the Eastern Mediterranean Sea between them. Erdogan also announced yesterday that accord has been delivered to the United Nations by Turkey.

Greece, which views the Accord as a violation of its sovereign rights and having no legal standing in international law, expelled the Libyan GNA Ambassador Mohamed Menfi. Ambassador Menfi has until Monday to depart from Greece. 

For his part, Greek President Mitsotakis said the Turkish move in denying Greek sovereignty over its many islands has placed Turkey in "unprecedented diplomatic isolation." Greece has announced it will use military force to immediately halt any Turkish oil or gas drilling in the sea southeast of Crete. The application of a European Union sanctions regime against Turkey is also imminent.

3 December 2019: Last week Turkey and the Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli, Libya signed a military pact that essentially divides the whole Eastern Mediterranean Sea between them. Eschatology Today will refer to this pact as the 'Istanbul Accord.' 

As if the Middle East didn't need another point of conflict that could spark a war between two supposed NATO allies (Greece and Turkey), the Turkish government of Recep Tayyip Erdogan with a single stroke of their pen annexed a massive swath of the Greek economic zone. For their part the Greeks describe the Istanbul Accord as being "ridiculous." 

The Turkish action is noted in the Eschatology Today map above (click to enlarge). It is in the stripped fluorescent yellow portion. This map is based upon initial reports of the Istanbul Accord as none has as yet been published by Turkey or the GNA. The Turks claim their maritime border now extends from southwestern Turkey all the way across the Eastern Mediterranean Sea to the Libyan coast line of Derna (Darnah) and Tobruk (i.e. all of the Libyan coast to the Egyptian border).

The Istanbul Accord pretends as if the Greek island of Crete and hundreds of other Greek islands going back into antiquity simply no longer exist. Greek citizens inhabit all of those sovereign Greek islands. Eschatology Today would liken Erdogan's Istanbul Accord to that of Adolf Hitler's 1938 military annexation (invasion) of the Czechoslovakian Sudetenland. 

The Istanbul Accord also involves Israel and Cyprus who are, as we've discussed here before, in a military alliance with Greece. The Turkish move directly threatens the proposed gas and oil pipelines between Israel and Cyprus to the Greek mainland and European Union Markets. This move also occurred just prior to the NATO Summit of this week, and alliance fallout is likely to be severe against Turkey, not to mention European Union anger at what the Turks have done. Current levels of EU sanctions against Turkey stand a very good change of becoming far more harsh. Turkey's status within NATO is also in peril. 

Additionally, the Istanbul Accord tosses a wrench into the Berlin peace talks scheduled for January 2020 between the two governments in the Libyan Civil War. Most international recognition is with the GNA Tripoli government led by Fayez Sarraj, while an assortment of other nations, including Russia, Egypt and the UAE are militarily supporting the eastern Libyan National Army (LNA) in Benghazi under Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar's leadership (whom we've also discussed previously). There are approximately 1,500 Russian Wagner Group mercenaries that have intervened in the war to fight alongside Haftar's LNA. Armed UAE drones also routinely bomb the Tripoli airport. The Istanbul Accord is likely to cost the GNA in Tripoli dearly in terms of international recognition.

The prophetic implications are obvious and numerous, touching on the fulfillment of Scripture from Daniel through Ezekiel. The issues between Turkey and Russia alone stand out profoundly so that clearly major changes will have to occur for the Magog Confederation to materialize as many interpret Ezekiel 38/39 indicating Turkey being part of that confederation (also discussed in-depth previously on Eschatology Today).