Global SITREP B10-24: Striking the Bow and Bringing the Sword PART II

 

Israeli PM Bibi Netanyahu

UPDATED 28 October 2024: Israeli PM Netanyahu has set the goals moving forward: "Our long-term strategy is to dismantle the axis of evil, to cut off its arms in the south and in the north, to exact a heavy price from Iran and its proxies and to prevent Iran from having nuclear weapons."

The U.S. warned Iran today (28 October 2024) at the U.N. Security Council of severe consequences should it launch further attacks Israel or U.S. forces in the Middle East. 

For its part Iran accused the U.S. of facilitating Israeli criminal aggression and said it would settle scores at a time and place of its chosing. 

The ball is in the hands of the side that options for comprehensive military preemption first.

29 October 2024: We all understand how a bow and arrow, a most ancient weapon system, works. The arrow is launched by the bow; without the bow the arrow cannot fly to its target. 

Technically speaking, the foremost of Iranian military might are their ballistic missiles (arrows). The newest, which was designed to carry a nuclear warhead, is the Khoramshahr-4 as seen in the collage image above. The mechanism is sits upon is a Transporter Erector Launcher or TEL. The TEL is the bow.

During Israel's recent hours-long retaliatory strike one of the highest value targets hit was a high-tech facility and campus in Hakimiyeh, Iran which manufactures the TEL. There won't be any more TELs coming out of the facility.

IAF F-16I Sufa with Rampage Standoff Missiles

UPDATE 1 November 2024: The State of Israel is on high alert for an Iranian attack. Depending on the sources, and there are at least a handful of anonymous sources reporting on this, the Iranian attack will occur either before the November 5 U.S. election, or after it. The sources range from Iranian insiders to IDF insiders to U.S. media quoting them as anonymous. One source, the chief in the office of Ayatollah Khamenei is referenced by name in an AFP report citing the Tasnim agency, claims the coming Iranian attack will be "brutal" and make Israel "regret" its recent attacks on Iranian military targets.

If the sum of all these reports is taken at face value, then the reason for Israel's state of high alert is warranted. This would tend to indicate that an Israeli detection by technical means of Iranian attack preparations, whether from within Iran, or Iraq, or Syria, or Yemen, or Lebanon or all of the above in concert, the near certainty of a wide-scale IDF preemption is also highly probable at any point this weekend and into the middle of next week. 

Buff 52

Knock, knock...

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gestures in front of a map during a press conference at the Government Press Office in Jerusalem, Sept. 4, 2024. (Abir Sultan/Pool via AP)

Notice that on this Israel government map there is no so called "West Bank" -Judea and Samaria are wholly within the State of Israel.

Global SITREP B9-24: Striking the Bow and Bringing the Sword

IRGC Aerospace Shahab-3

UPDATED 16 October 2024: The IDF is actively shaping the battlefield, not only in Lebanon but also in the Golan Heights where since 1 October new forward positions have been created, and operation to remove landmines have been largely completed. Use the clickable map below for reference as we move forward.

UNDOF ZONE

Notice the direct connection the UNDOF (United Nations Disengagement Observer Force) Zone has between Lebanon's eastern border, Syria's southern border and a small section of Jordan's northern border. The western border of the zone is known as the A Line and it functions as Israel's de facto border with Syria; the eastern border is Syria's de facto border with Israel separated by UNDOF troop deployments along its entire length since its institution at the end of the 1973 Yom Kippur War. The 1,080 international troops deployed in the zone, in order of contingent size, are Nepal, Uruguay, India, Fiji and Kazakhstan with a handful each from Ghana, Ireland, Bhutan and the Czech Republic.

It is important to note this as Jeremiah 49:26 foretells dire a result for men in general and soldiers ("all the men of war"). Eschatology Today is of the opinion that this verse dovetails with Isaiah 17:12-13. Even a cursory reading these prophetic Scriptures informs as to the reason for the coming dire circumstance which forces their hasty departure.

There is also, as we've noted previously, a reason for the forward push into the Golan, and that would be to flank Hezbollah from the east in southern Lebanon, possibly to in preempt or interdict a mass evacuation of their forces northward. Some reports indicate that Kata'ib Hezbollah (Iraqi Shi'a militia) may have been instructed to forgo engaging in combat with the IDF. This is likely a very temporary situation if accurate.

In the meantime, sand is rapidly falling into the bottom of the proverbial hourglass marking how soon Israel will pounce to strike the bow and bring its very capable sword upon the Iranian Twelver regime. A paradigm changing event to be sure.

IDF released image of KIA Yahya Sinwar

18 October 2024: An IDF armored reconnaissance unit engaged in a firefight with three HAMAS terrorists Wednesday, 16 October. The unit was unaware that one of the three combatants was Yahya Sinwar. Sinwar was attempting to flee from Rafah to the Al-Mawasi humanitarian zone on the Mediterranean Sea when spotted by the IDF recon force. A Merkava IV MBT fired a single round into the impromptu hideaway (a house) which ultimately killed the HAMAS leader. He was also found to have bullet wounds to his head and chest.

Suspecting explosive charges in the immediate area the IDF waited until Thursday to search and clear the area before accessing the site. The image above was released by the IDF; it shows IDF troops standing over the deceased Sinwar. Sinwar's identity was confirmed by DNA testing. Subsequent searching of the immediate area did not locate any of the Israeli hostages nor any sign of their presence. Many media reports had long insisted the Israeli hostages were surrounding Sinwar as human shields. Islamic radicals will almost certainly hail Yahya Sinwar as a martyr who died in direct battle with the IDF. Sinwar is gone but the war is not over in Gaza.

Flight of two B-2 Spirit stealth bombers

In a direct warning to Iran the United States deployed long-range B2 Spirit stealth bombers to destroy five hardened weapons depots in a Houthi-controlled region of Yemen on October 17. The depots contained missiles and other weapons used by the Houthis to attack commercial and military ships in the Red Sea and missiles that targeted Israel. It is unknown if the Spirit's departed from CONUS or from a forward base of operations to conduct the strike. It is very likely the first American use of the B-2 in combat since 2017 and the first operational strike mission employing the GBU-57 MOP (Massive Ordnance Penetrator), a 27,125-pound weapon which can penetrate over 200 feet deep into earth and reinforced concrete bunkers. Each Spirit carries two MOPs. The Spirit's mission and weapon chosen were clearly a powerful message to the Islamic Republic of Iran which now understands that destruction of its Natanz nuclear site is clearly within the capability set of American B-2's armed either with the GBU-57 or newer GBU-57 F/B variants, or the newest GBU-72B, a 5,000-pound all-weather precision strike bunker buster weapon. It is no accident this strike on the Houthis and their Iranian-made weapons occurred as Israel is an advanced stage of their own and very imminent air assault on Iranian targets...

Israeli Air Force F-35i and F-15i Strike Package with airborne refueler

Moshiach Patch on IDF Uniform

UPDATE 22 October 2024: The Moshiach (Messiah) patch below the Israel 'Star of David' flag patch was taken off a soldiers arm by CoS Herzi HaLevi and placed in his pocket, close to his heart. 

This Messiah Crown patch has caused quite a stir in Israel, with some opining that to Christian and Jewish Messianic soldiers it honors Jesus Messiah, the King of Israel. 

To others it honors the Orthodox Moshiach; that it is a symbol of the IDF being the army of God (Ezekiel 37). 

Others opine that since the patch is officially non-approved it belongs in a pocket, close to the soldiers heart. 

And a very, very small minority of secular Israelis have nothing but disdain for the patch because they reject all messiahs at face value.

The wearing of non-approved uniform patches is widespread among virtually all of the world's armies; most commanders allow them as morale boosters. The US military is among them, particularly the DTOM and Punisher patches.

Global SITREP B8-24: Joshua 13 Northern Arrows (Continued)

IDF Merkava IV MBT entering Lebanon

UPDATED 2 October 2024: In the aftermath of the Iranian Twelver (Shi'a) Regimes ballistic missile attack on the State of Israel, IDF CoS Herzi HaLevi communicated with 4-Star USCENTCOM Commander Eric Kurilla to coordinate a unified response to the attack, even though the attack turned out to be a military failure. It is assessed at this time that the coming unified response will include Iranian nuclear facilities and petroleum infrastructure as well as the depots containing Iran's remain long-range missiles of all types. The price the Twelver regime will pay for its attack will be extraordinary and will eventually lead to its demise.

The attack is assessed to have included 180 ballistic missiles of the conventional Emad and Ghadr designs, and for the first time the hypersonic Fattah-2. Ballistic missiles reach altitudes which scrape the edge of space before descending into the target area. The vast majority were intercepted and destroyed by Anti-Ballistic Missiles (ABM) launched by two US Navy destroyers and Israel's own multi-tiered ABM array. 

Meanwhile the IDF's elite 98th Division continued its push into southern Lebanon on the ground with armor artillery and in the air (attack helicopters). The Israel Air Force has complete domination of the high ground in Lebanese airspace above. The IDF's 36th Division has also joined the combat Operation Northern Arrows in Lebanon.

Screenshot capture of the Israeli strike in Latakia, Syria

UPDATE 4 October 2024: Israel has struck and completely obliterated a weapons depot virtually adjacent to the Russian Khmeimim Air Base in Latakia Province, Syria. 

The information collected thus far is that an Iranian (IRGC-QF) Qeshm Air cargo jet landed at the Khmeimim Air Base with a cargo of weapons for Hezbollah. This would indicate Russia has decided to allow deliveries of this type making them as much a part of the current war as is America in supplying Israel with weapons. Russia can always make the claim that Khmeimim is a Syrian base as its official name is Bashar Al-Assad International Airport. 

The Qeshm Air delivery was subsequently offloaded and trucked to a previously unknown depot in the adjacent town of Jableh which Israel struck within an hour of the weapons arrival. The Israeli strike appears to have consisted of 30-some odd missiles or Harop drones that came in from the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, indicating that perhaps this was an Israeli Navy strike. In any event this IDF strike is unprecedented and in, no pun intended, uncharted waters. The weapons depot was destroyed in due course by the weapons cooking off for nearly an hour following the initial missile/drone strikes. 

Probably related is the Syrian Arab League Ambassador Ala request for the League to make a decision tantamount to a declaration of war against Israel to halt the "occupiers'" aggression in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria. Neither Israel or Russia have thus far acknowledged this action, even though both Russian and Syrian air defenses were reportedly active in trying to engage the incoming Israeli weapons.

 Israel's flag flies in Lebanon

During the 2006 war instigated by Hezbollah the IDF was unable to gain full control of the high ground at Maroun El Ras. The image above illustrates how the IDF has achieved this objective in 2024 by raising the Star of David there in less than a week.

To be continued...