Global SITREP C2-24: Rockets Red Glare

RS-26 Rubezh IRBM a/k/a RS-26 Oreshnik MRBM

22 November 2024: The Russian ballistic Missile attack on Dnipro, Ukraine yesterday morning appears to have been a new variant of a Russian Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile known as the RS-26 Rubezh. 

Russia's clandestine development of this weapon almost certainly was the reason President Trump and SECDEF Esper announced the US's unilateral withdrawal from the Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (a/k/a INF Treaty) on August 2, 2019. The development of the RS-26 Rubezh was a one of a series of blatant violations of the INF Treaty signed in 1987 by U.S. President Ronald Regan and Soviet General Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev.

Development continued and an MRBM variant of the Rubezh was rebranded as (RS-26) Oreshnik. It is difficult to distinguish between these two missiles which led to major confusion in expert media reporting yesterday on the identity of the missile. 

RS-26 Oreshnik test launch

However, what is now known puts yesterday's strike in an entirely new perspective. First and foremost is that the Oreshnik strike is the first use of an IRBM or MRBM in the history of warfare. The proverbial genie is out of the bottle, and with this strike a clear signal was sent; the world has crossed into unknown territory. Secondly, analysis of imagery makes clear that the Oreshnik warhead contained six (6) warheads or MIRVs (Multiple Independent Re-entry Vehicles). Three were either inert, kinetic or decoys and three had conventional high explosives. These MIRV warheads were also impervious to Ukrainian air defenses; they never even came close to being shot down due to their hypersonic speed and maneuverability. A third aspect, not widely reported, is that ALL of the missiles Russia has launched into Ukraine in more than 1,000 days of warfare were capable of carrying nuclear warheads of various yields.

So, with Russia having let the genie out of the bottle who's to say that Israel would not deploy a mix of its Jericho-2 MRBMs and Jericho-3 MIRVed IRBMs in a follow-up strike on Iran's now virtually defenseless nuclear and petroleum infrastructure. Maneuverable warheads can arrive on target from every direction on the compass.