Global SITREP D4-22: Russia's Illegal Annexation Guarantees War Escalation

 

Location of Kerch

The Kerch Strait Bridge engulfed in flames

UPDATE 8 October 2022: Speaking of an escalation in the war between Russia and Ukraine - it took place within hours of Vladimir Putin's 70th birthday. Some birthday present!

As noted in previous SITREPs, going all the way back to Russia's initial invasion and annexation of Ukraine's Crimean peninsula in 2014-2015, the Kerch Strait Bridge linking the eastern city of Kerch (the Kerch Strait) with Russia proper was destined to be struck if Ukraine were to have any hope of recovering Crimea from Russia's annexation. The strike, and major escalation, occurred at 06:00 Moscow time (0300 GMT) this morning. 

According to several sources, this strike on the 12-mile long Kerch Strait Bridge was a clandestine strike carried out by Ukraine's SBU (Security Intelligence Service), although Ukraine has not said so officially. It appears a truck bomb was detonated as it passed below the fuel tanker railcars heading for Russian forces in Crimea and Southern Ukraine. 

The fuel tanker railcars erupted in flames, a massive fire ensued, and al least two sections of the lower level roadway collapsed into the water below. The bridge is effectively and entirely out of commission at this time. There's little doubt this strike is the beginning of Ukraine's effort to retake Crimea. Also without doubt this strike flies in the face of Putin's threat to employ nukes if Russia or its annexed territories were attacked. Bottom line: this war is now at the anticipated crisis point with an undetermined limit on the level of escalation ahead. It will be swift, no doubt.

Banners on Red Square, Moscow:
"Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaphorizhzhia, Kherson - RUSSIA!

30 September 2022: Russian Federation president Vladimir Putin just wrapped up a speech in the Kremlin in which he announced the annexation of four occupied, or partially occupied, Ukrainian oblasts as de facto Russian territory, as well as the defense of which from external attacks from any source can be met with the use of Russian nuclear weapons. This unilateral action by the regime of Putin will result in an escalation and intensification of the war into realms previously only discussed in thrilling war novels and action films a la the late Tom Clancy.

Today's announcement in Moscow has occurred as the Armed Forced of Ukraine (AFU) have encircled and entrapped two regiment-sized forces of the Russian Army. Those units are the BARS-13 "Russian Legion" and 572nd Guards Motor Rifle Regiment of the 20th General Army which have been in a weeks-long, hard-pressed defense of Lyman, Donetsk Oblast. Lyman will fall to the AFU shortly as all Ground Lines Of Communication (GLOC) and resupply have been cut off. This is day 219 of the war.

What remains to be seen: will Putin deploy nuclear weapons in defense of the illegally annexed "Russian" territory, and how will NATO respond to it. At the moment US and NATO aircraft are airborne scouring the entire spectrum for any sign of deployed Russian nuclear weaponry. 

UPDATE 3 October 2022: The U.S. does have the capability to detect in advance a Russian deployment of nuclear weaponry. Several former and current US government officials have made this information public knowledge in recent days, not so much to assure civilians, but to let Russia's leadership know that our side will know if and when that happens. 

The Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines, as reported by Denmark's military forces, ceased leaking methane gas this past weekend. This is not due to any repair effort, but because the remaining methane gas in the pipeline is not strong enough to overcome the pressure of the Baltic Sea at the depth where the sabotage ruptures occurred.

Probably of the utmost importance was the text of Vladimir Putin's annexation speech. This speech was couched in unhinged and wildly erroneous pseudo-religious rhetoric, about a "holy war" against the West. Putin's speech was preceded in Red Square by a rally in which the battle-cry for this war and an open call within ultra-nationalist Russian society for total war against the West. The battle cry is the Russian word "Goida!" A video of the Red Square rally where this call for holy war was made can be viewed at The American Conservative website. The video is most informative. Think in terms of Ezekiel 38/39 when you view it.