Global SITREP D4-23: A Greater MidEast War Part III

U.S. CENTCOM and IDF Commanders Meeting

UPDATE 17 December 2023: The commanders of United States Central Command (USCENTCOM) and Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have met for the third time since the war erupted on October 7, 2023. No doubt one of the topics discussed at this meeting is the continued resupply of munitions from the American arsenal and the preparations underway for escalating warfare on Israel's northern front. 

Few are they who believe Hezbollah will accept, or that Iran will allow them to accept, the diplomatic initiative for their forces to withdraw (retreat) north of the Litani River in Lebanon, per UNSC 1701 of 2006. Such a refusal will make a full-scale war in the north inevitable. A second and equally important topic is the initiation of Operation Prosperity Guardian in the Red Sea and strait at Bab al-Mandab against the Iranian Houthi proxy in Yemen. 

As the operation's name implies, global prosperity hangs in the balance with the Houthi attacks on all commercial vessels transiting the Red Sea through the strait. The top four or five global shipping concerns have shut down their commercial vessels from moving through at this strategic choke point. As a result the USS Eisenhower CSG moved from the Persian Gulf into the Gulf of Aden in preparation for possible military action against Houthi military forces. Such action might well follow the heels of U.S. SECDEF Austin's in Israel today and the message he will shortly convey to all willing to listen.

11 December 2023: PM Netanyahu definitively let the proverbial cat out of the bag today:

"First of all we will win in the south and then we will deal with the north. As a first step, we will push Hezbollah beyond the Litani River and later we will also have to take care of the organization itself."

Therefore, Hezbollah is not on a count-down timer to initiate full-scale hostilities with Israel, Israel will initiate its Hezbollah solution in due course. Yet Hezbollah cannot be solved in a vacuum - the IRGC-QF Unit 340 proxies in Syria will also need to be decisively defeated by the IDF. 

Of course this is how the men in charge of Israel's war cabinet, and those in the U.S. government may envision how current events will evolve over time. However, neither of the two allies appear to be cognizant of Isaiah 11:14, a direct statement which is very clear.

With respect to the Gaza operation, the most current interactive graphic available is found on the ISW and Critical Threats webpage. Click on the link if you're so inclined and you can explore the entire Holy Land in exceptional detail, but zooming in and moving the image around with the controls and your mouse.

The above graphic will be used as Israel and the IDF have to "deal with the north" in a military campaign that is all but inevitable. Secular Israelis have some hope pinned on diplomacy by France and the United States who singularly and together still have some influence in Lebanon, albeit not with Hezbollah or the other Islamic terrorist groups in the country. It's extremely doubtful the can convince Hezbollah to move all of its forces north of the Litani River (just north of Tyre on the map). And even this fails to deal with the Hezbollah organization itself, much less the IRGC-QF forces to the immediate east of Galilee and the Golan.

Once again, we're out in front of the issue because a head start is far better than having to play catch up.