Wednesday, December 26, 2018

Global SITREP E3-18: Fractures and Stresses

FRACTURES and STRESSES
UPDATE 26 December 2018: Well, that didn't take long, re: my comment below concerning Israel not bluffing about dealing with Iran in Syria. It was far sooner than expected - last night in fact - that Israel launched a massive attack on Iranian, Syrian and Hezbollah targets from Damascus airport and other distinct points southwest of there towards the Golan Heights. Israel has also closed the skies in the area to all traffic above 5000 ft altitude over the Golan and east to Bashan. Rather to be correct instead of being first, here's what I've scrambled to learn from various sources on what made Christmas night in Damascus anything but a "Silent Night."

There appears to have been an IDF strike against Hezbollah luminaries at the Damascus International Airport that was coincidental with a just arrived shipment on an IRGC-operated Boeing 747 and another commercial aircraft of advanced GPS components destined for Hezbollah's rockets in Lebanon, and several Isranian/Hezbollah arms depots in Southern Syria. These strikes appear to have completed their mission objectives; neither of the Iranian aircraft were struck by Israeli missiles. The 747 had departed for Tehran just minutes prior to the first impact of Israeli missiles. The strikes commenced at about 10 PM Israel time; 3 PM EST in the US.

It appears that during this mission a handful of F-16I Sufa's launched Delilah cruise missiles at select targets, and this was followed up by strikes launched by F-35I Adir stealth aircraft. No Israeli aircraft were lost during this operation. Also, a stray Syrian S-200 anti-air missile was fired on by IDF anti-air batteries, while in Syria their attempt to intercept the Israeli missiles failed completely. Reportedly five dozen Russian-made SA-125 Neva missiles (a/k/a the SA-3; NATO Name "Goa") were launched by Syrian batteries and immediately began impacting at various locations around Damascus. Many of them coming down like this suggests electromagnetic suppression of Syrian air defense systems by the IAF aircraft, possibly the F-35I Adir's.

This update is deliberately ignoring anything coming from Russian government or media sources for the obvious reason of their being blatant misstatements of facts. Disinformation in other words.

24 December 2018: Keeping track on several developments in the Middle East. Going through them in no particular order of importance as each could lead to something more in the near-term. 

About 12 hours ago the IDF opened fire in the northern Golan on an enemy squad that was spotted having crossed Line Bravo (1974 ceasefire line) and was getting too close to Israel's border fence. This is further proof that neither Syria nor Iran and its proxies, including Hezbollah, have any regard for the conditions and lines drawn at the end of the 1973 Yom Kippur War. The enemy squad was most likely attempting to infiltrate Israel to gather intelligence on IDF defenses. The mission was an epic fail thanks to IDF direct fire upon them. 

The USS John C Stennis (CVN-74) and its Carrier Strike Group (CSG) passed through the Strait of Hormuz earlier this past weekend. The transit of the strait occurred as the IRGC Navy was launching its 'Great Prophet 12' live fire exercise nearby. All Iranian rocket fire was directed away from the Stennis CSG.  The Stennis CSG is conducting integrated operations with the USS Essex Amphibious Ready Group (ARG) on boths sides of the Strait of Hormuz (i.e. in the Gulf and the Araban Sea. The Essex (LHD-2) ARG has the VMFA 211 USMC squadron (the 'Avengers') of F-35B Lightning II stealth fighters embarked. Iranian media has been silent on the Stennis CSG's and Essex ARG's presence.

The Israeli government's position, as announced by PM/DM Bibi Netanyahu and IDF CoS Eisenkot, that Israel will continue its operations against Iran and its proxies is no bluff. We can expect by late February or March, if not sooner, a massive IDF operation into Syria should the Iranian's look upon the announced U.S. withdrawal of its forces from Syria as a "blank check" it can now cash at Israel's expense. The infil attempt noted above is very probably related to Iranian intentions and IDF CoS Eisenkot's remarks of yesterday.  

20 December 2018: This will likely be the final SITREP for 2018, and within it we will look at the Fractures and Stresses that are probable Indications and Warnings (I&W) likely to manifest as global crises in 2019. This will not be an all-inclusive list, but it's not going to be a short listing either. It will be a list of the major problems the Eschatology Today blog is likely to address in 2019. We like being ahead of the curve; we have spent much of the current year as well as the previous ten years being ahread of the curve. It is our mission.

Firstly, all of the signs Jesus revealed to His disciples on the Mount of Olives that were to occur in the future to signal the end of the age and His coming again are present and increasing at the end of 2018. These signs, as He said, must take place. Look around. False messianic figures and wannabes are everywhere. Wars and rumors thereof are everywhere. Famines, pestilences and unprecedented seismic quakes, shakes and eruptions are occurring globally. These are all the "beginning of sorrows;" far, far worse will occur during the final 70th week as revealed by the angel Gabriel to the prophet Daniel 2,500 years ago.

Our Lord also assured us that the generation which was alive to see all these events taking place would not pass away prior to their completion. And the greatest sign of them all, God's prophetic time piece which we know as the State of Israel has been existent for more than 70 years. This, in essense, is a recap of Matthew 24:3-8. We should all know this by heart; these are the things we were commanded to watch for. That's why they were revealed to us by the prophets to begin with, so we would know without doubt what season it is.

Next we'll look at some details...

Number one. Today's announced U.S. troop withdrawal from Syria IS NOT as many in the media are portraying it to be. With IS having been decimated and virtually defeated, President Trump, probably under the advisement of his senior military commanders, ordered a draw down of U.S. forces deployed to Syria. Civilians in the US and around the world need to realize that not all U.S. troops deployed to CJTF-OIR and CENTCOM are combat troops. A very large number of them are support forces. With combat ops against IS now having transitioned into follow-on phase of operations a number of the support troops and combat troops are no longer mission essential. Their return stateside will occur over a two to three month period.

The operations against IS in Syria, and Iraq also, will continue. Nothing has changed in this regard. Just because IS has lost its territorial above ground caliphate does not mean it has lost its underground caliphate of tunnels in Syria and Iraq, just as the Taliban has not lost its tunnels in Afghanistan. A U.S. troop draw down in the country, and here they are over running one province after another. There are always risks involved in force reductions, let's hope we got this one right.

And with all due consideration for the continuing combat operations in Syria, force protection and operational security being first and foremost, the exact details of what this troop withdrawal is about will not be released publicly. What we do know from the CJTF-OIR Public Affairs Office (PAO) is that U.S. military operations in northeast Syria will continue, observation posts will remain manned, and the enduring defeat of IS will be ensured until the mission is complete. Quoting the PAO's very important final statement, "Any reports indicating a change in the U.S. position with respect to these efforts is false and designed to sow confusion and chaos." 

And to quote Sarah Huckabee Sanders statement of yesterday, detailed within a White House press release, we find under the heading, "The Global Coalition against ISIS will not end," these words. "The United States and our allies stand ready to re-engage at all levels to defend American interests whenever necessary." Note in detail the first three words of the heading, the Global Coalition, and the last three words, will not end. Right here, right now, you have the most powerful aggregation of global military power ever assembled. 61 nations are in this military coalition. We discussed this a couple years ago on this blog, but most recently in Global SITREP B5-17. Worth a second read if you have the time. It may change names at some point, but it's not going away. And by no act of coincidence this military coalition very aptly fits the Biblical description given to Daniel by God which we read in Daniel 2:40-44.


Who can make war against the beast?

Number two is about concerns for Israel. Israel is protected by God and the archangel Michael. Israel was able to handle its defense needs before the U.S. deployed forces to Syria, and will do the same when eventually the last U.S. combat soldier comes home from Syria. Is this not what the prophetic texts of Scripture tells us? Yes, of course. Yet of all the world's media and former government leaders, it is the Israeli's who are flailing around like chicken little's less than 24 hours after the announcement of our redeployment was made public. This is all part of God's plan, and because of Israel's continued Spiritual blindness they are not yet capable of seeing it for what it truly is. It will take time, and some big battles, but they'll get there because God keeps His Covenant with them.


Number three. As for the reports of the State Department pulling its people out of Syria, that's not a concern. They are mostly civilian non-combatants and with relations between the U.S. and Syria being what they are why would they be needed there? Do we really want another Benghazi. Watch the movie 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi this weekend to provide some insight. I tend to believe the State Department's removal of its staff from Syria is a very prudent measure. Would you want to be in Damascus? I wouldn't. If they are out within 24 hours, that's a good thing.

Number four. Europe and the EU are a mess. And this has nothing to do with BREXIT. France has been a basket case since the Charlie Hebdo murders, and the several terrorist attacks since then, up to and including the killings in Strasbourg. The Islamist jihadists problem in France is a problem of their own making. France has long been pro-Arab, i.e. pro-Muslim. It is also quite anti-Jewish. Last time I checked Jews weren't murdering Frenchmen in the streets of Paris or Strasbourg, but jihadist Muslims were. So there will be more of this, indeed a lot more Strasbourg's before it gets better, and better is a very relative term. In the UK the BREXIT issue reigns supreme, especially in their media. The PM just got a year-long reprieve from a no confidence vote that she prevailed in. But after that year is up... the UK will get a new PM. I wonder who? Belgium just lost its PM to a sudden resignation over his signing the suicidal UN Migration Pact. It was a no confidence vote he lost. Too bad. Germany is in transition even before Angela Merkel departs. So, what all this means is that with Europe being in a top to bottom mess it seems to fit time wise with what we know from Bible prophecy; that is the emergence of 10 nations with three of them being taken by the beast right from the get go. 

Number five. Did I say Europe and the EU are in a mess? Well, so is the USA in a mess. Our sitting president has been in the midst of an ongoing attempt at a coup d'etat that began even before he was sworn in. The "insurance policy," right? Then after the inauguration the coup d'etat went into and continues on a steroidal overdrive. Like nothing ever seen in this nation before.  Our president's biggest mistake was that he showed weakness by not immediately going after Hillary Clinton as he had hinted during the final debate with her. That scared Hillary and the globalists in the swamp to their rotten cores. And the rest is history. Fake, phony and totally fraudulent dossiers run repeatedly before a FISA Court judge, utterly illegal and out-of-control Justice Department and FBI leadership at the very top. Yes, the USA is in a real mess, but because, as I believe, there are so many of the Spirit-filled Bride of Christ in the USA the baddies are being effectively restrained. Our prayers are the most powerful force on this earth, bar none. However, after the Harpazo, no one will want to be here. America will quickly become a land that will redefine the word nasty.

Finally, for item number six we circle back around to the biggest mess of them all - the Middle East. Iran is the biggest trouble maker from one end to the other. But it will be dealt with, Jeremiah says so. Lebanon and Syria - catastrophe looms for both and it could begin suddenly without any warning. Boom goes Damascus and the nation of Syria with it. The "Palestinian" issue resolves, forcibly, into a one-state solution. The one state will be Israel. Russia goes home from Syria licking its wounds and the loss of everything it invested. Like the lost of the IL-22M Coot-A, there's little doubt within myself that Russia won't blame its huge losses on Israel and, as Ezekiel informs us, will seek to compensate for these huge losses by making an attempt to take Israel as plunder. I believe all of this could begin to take place in 2019, and it will be a roller coaster ride from there. At some point, an unknown point, we hear a shout unlike any we've ever heard before (because none of us has ever heard an archangel shout) "Come up here!" And that will be that.

36 comments:

  1. Sean,

    I look forward to this SITREP. Merry Christmas to you and all who frequent this site.

    Maranatha!

    Justin

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  2. One of the most important tidbits of advice offered here since CJTF-OIR began its anti-IS mission was to not let the media drag us around by the nose.

    It is happening right now. In war the truth is always obscured by a bodyguard of lies. It's intentional. It's called OPDEC -OPerational DECeption.

    Forget media. Focus on what God says.

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  3. Sean, So very true. Your words are so true and constandly proven so! His truth dedicated to THOSE THINGS THAT ARE HIDDEN BEING BROUGHT TO THE light! Wow!

    Plz excuse the big upper case! My tablet is suffering the pangs of "Old Age" and the Samsung app keyboard in my tablet has some very stubborn Ctrl problems!

    Prayers for God's Great Wisdom and renewed strength for ALL OF THOSE in Authority over us in the USA!

    GG5/SHALOM SHALOM

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  4. I hear the hands of the clock increasing ever so much! Such exciting times we live in to witness such events that so many generations have waited for right before our eyes! I pray for everyone here to have a happy, safe and blessed Christmas and New Year!

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  5. Sean,
    Thanks for the point by point summary. It makes it easier to explain what's going on to others around the proverbial office water fountain, most only get their info from the talking heads on tv.

    Thanks for a year of updates and insight. Hopefully soon instead of updates it will be just UP as in "Come up here!"

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  6. Jmoll,

    Thanks, that was the idea in a nutshell, a general overview of how all signs Jesus spoke of are reality today, and can be presented as watercooler fare instead of fire and brimstone doomsday scare tactics. Just take a good sober look around; nobody is gonna meditate to make this mess just go away. Time is short, getting shorter every second.

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  7. This SITREP has been edited to clean up a few typo errors, and expanded with the addition of a couple of important points.

    Was going to expand on the global earthquake issue, but one whould have to be completely blind or willfully ignorant to miss the fact that the earth is in the process of coming apart at its tectonic seams. A self-evident fulfillment of Jesus prophecy that will only increase exponentially in the months to come.

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  8. Pulling U.S. diplomats out of Damascus is a good thing. After a careful reading of Isaiah 17 It is obvious Israel is responsible for destroying Damascus. I can't help but think that it is going to have to suffer some very serious jewish casualties for Netayahu to be even remotely justified in the eyes of the world community to have unleashed a type of firepower not seen since WWll. The last verse of chapter 17 inicates the complete destruction, in under 12 hours(sunset to sunrise), is in direct reprisal for looting and plundering Israel.As the glory of Jacob fades and his fat waxes lean in that day of incurable pain is it possible that the trigger is a devastating chemical attack on a jewish population center? Richard/Spokane

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  9. Richard,

    Your comment is identical to how I've interpreted Isaiah 17 since the late 1990's. Well done!

    I believe Israel will suffer significant casualties in the exchange that has a high probability of being a Syrian bio-chemical missile-borne first strike on the ancient region of Ephraim.

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  10. Good summary Sean. I have wondered how much of the 'we are withdrawing troops' is just another op by Pres Trump to extract more concessions from the likes of Saudi Arabia or some of the coalition partners for more cash to help fund the war. Its happened many times with Trumps original 'we are withdrawing troops' sometime last year, and his 'we are going to withdraw from Nato...UN...etc' in order to secure better funding. As I have mentioned elsewhere, if Netanyahu believes for one moment that Trump is serious and will follow through on his troop withdrawal 'threat', Netanyahu may well push ahead quickly with his war plans to ensure he does have the full use of the US troops/navy while they are still there (possibly whether they like it or not).

    The UN migration deal is scary...our daft NZ leaders just signed onto this but promised 'we won't lose our sovereignty' over it. Yeah right.

    Ryan D

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  11. Ryan,

    Exactly. Trump's been in office for nearly two years and wrote a rule book (The Art of the Deal) that vividly describes his modus operandi, yet many folks still assess his moves and tactics though a conventional political lens.

    Trump has never been conventional. sigh

    And the UN Migration is a suicide pact designed by globalist elites for any nation that signs on to it.

    Wanna ID a closted globalist? They support this, think it's a good idea.

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  12. I am comforted by the information you've shared here, Sean. Living through the stress of watching this country seemingly coming apart at the seams has depressed me and then I see our president appear to suddenly turn his back on Israel and it hammered me. I believe that scripture is inerrant and that what will be will be but it is difficult watching the nation I grew up loving, die before my eyes. God is JUST and His judgments are true.

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  13. DuncanMc,

    You said it perfectly it Breaks my heart to see this once blessed nation turn its back on it’s history, God and friends (Isreal) a shell of its former self.

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  14. Brothers,

    I am struggling to understand when and how President Trump turned his back on Israel.

    I do not see an announced withdrawal of combat support troops from Syrian territory as a betrayal of Israel.

    If anything, and if the 2,000 some-odd special forces, Marine arty, and other US boots on the ground are fully withdrawn from Syrian soil and back across borders into Iraqi and Jordanian soil, that is still not a betrayal of Israel. It is instead an enabler for Israel to do what it MUST DO in order to fulfill a plethora of the prophetic Word of the LORD God.

    Also, we should not be depressed or feeling hammered in seeing the Word of God fulfilled before our eyes.

    On the contrary, rejoicing in the Spirit and the knowledge of His will is being done for the purpose of His Kingdom come and the salvation of Israel and innumerable souls all over the earth.

    Harvest time has come and our Harpazo is imminent, that's the bottom line of this SITREP.

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  15. Amen Sean! Truly rejoicing in the Spirit for His Plan to be completed.

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  16. Yup, we say it here all the time - God is in complete and total control of ALL things. Always has been, always will be.

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  17. I wrote in this SITREP that Trump's biggest mistake was not going after Hillary as he had said he would. Domestically, that remains true.

    However, internationally his biggest mistake, unless reversed or put on an amended (longer) time table, is the withdrawal from Syria. A rapid withdrawal could be catastrophic according to the battlefield commanders of CJTF-OIR.

    Islamic State launched a large-scale counter offensive in Hajin today. A defeated IS should not be capable of such operations.

    And if Turkey attacks the Kurdish-led SDF in north Syria east of the Euphrates River, then the SDF will have to abandon the fight against IS in order to defend against Turkey.

    Trump MUST reconsider the time table of Syrian withdrawal for the sake of US forces security.

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  18. There are more theories going around about what occurred this week regarding Syria than anyone shake a stick at.

    In a couple months time or less we'll find out what happened.

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  19. The resignation of Mattis isn't good. Mattis undeniably knows his craft, if he says its a mistake to withdraw then I'll put my money on him.

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  20. Gen. Mattis' resignation was known to be in the works. He became aware of the Trump-Erdogan phone call and that it immediately preceeded the hasty Syria withdrawal directive.

    That led to Mattis' final face-to-face with the CiNC on 20 DEC which was his final attempt to extend the withdrawal time table, and which the CiNC denied.

    Mattis' then pulled his resignation letter, which was also dated 20 DEC, from his pocket and handed it ti the CiNC. It was honorable resignation.

    Gen. McInerney said he was informed that the Trump-Erdogan phonecall was a deal which exchanged a rapid US troop withdrawal (2000-2200 troops total) from Syria for Turkey's purchase of the Patriot Air Defense system (instead of Russian S-400) and F-35A stealths that Turkey will produce under US license.

    This was done with the knowledge that 3 times as many US troops (abt 6,000) will remain across the border in Iraq, and others in Jordan, plus US airpower will remain in place. The SDF will not be abandoned.

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  21. What a complete surprise. What ever the meaning of this withdrawal, I’m confident our Lord is pulling the strings and everything is perfectly aligning according to His will.
    Merry Christmas and may God bless everyone here!

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  22. Amazingly, the factual accuracy of my point-by-point summary and
    assessment posted above and in comments over 19-21 DEC is now being repeated, almost verbatim on specific points. One such corroborating summary was published today (22 DEC) by the New York Times. The series of corroborating facts within the article were sourced to two anonymous individuals within the DoD.

    This is likely because it serves their overarching anti-Trump agenda.

    Mattis will say on through February, and the 30-day withdrawal will likely be overseen by him, meaning it will be extended to a phased 60-day withdrawal into neighboring Iraq. Some US special forces will remain embedded with the SDF in eastern Syria, CENTCOM will establish a re-branded Quick Reaction force of 6,000 troops in western Iraq.

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  23. These past few days have been a rather wild ride. Even for those of us who had thought we were well buckled up it has been rather extraordinary.

    Yet I think it is safe to say that this was nothing compared to what is coming in the very near term future. Be in prayer as always; have each others backs.

    Marana'tha!

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  24. Caroline Glick had a informative article as to two positive aspects to the U.S. withdrawal but the one thing that caught my eye was this statement.

    "US forces in Syria act as a deterrent against Russian, Iranian and Hezbollah aggression against Israel. With US forces on the ground, they fear that provoking a war with Israel will be tantamount to going to war against America. With US forces out of Syria, their fear of attacking Israel will diminish."
    God Bless you all!

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    Replies
    1. For probably just the second time in several years I find disagreement with Caroline Glick's wholly secular reasoning.

      2200 mostly special forces troops in mostly northeastern Syria have not deterred Russian and Iranian military aggression against Israel.

      Nuclear-armed Israel has done that all by herself.

      Delete
  25. Thanks for the heads up, it goes someway in alleviating my concern over Mattis's departure and context of his resignation letter.

    Time will tell how this all pans out no doubt. Obviously it'll end as Gods prophetic word states, but how we get there will be most interesting.

    Whoever is chosen to replace Mattis has large shoes to fill, I'll pray it's someone as wise and as accomplished as Jim Mattis was, Pres Trump will need it.

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  26. Kris762,

    The oddity here is that for 95% of his distinguished career 'Mad Dog' Mattis has always had superior officers whose orders he may not have been in full alignment with, but he still carried those orders out to the letter; he did not resign.

    So my gut tells me his first civilian resignation is probably politically motivated and has nothing to do with purely military order.

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  27. Yes, by now we're all aware that Israel will have early elections on 9 April 2019.

    The 20th Knesset will be disovled and the 21st Knesset elected. Bibi Netanyahu is currently seen to remain as the Prime Minister in these elections.

    Bottom line: whatever happens between now and then is God's will.

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  28. Hey Sean,
    I'm sure you saw the headlines. Israel just bombed some weapons buildings in Damascus Tuesday night.

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  29. Yes, and I've beem scrambling to get as many facts as are known since about 4 AM EST this morning.

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  30. Cleaning up some details...

    On my comment above of December 22 at 10:10 AM, the CiNC subsequently decided that Mattis staying on through Februrary was not something he wanted. So, Mattis is done as of 31 December, and we'll have a new SECDEF on 1 January 2019.

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  31. Israel's "ground and air" war operations against Iran, its proxies and their Syrian hosts will continue and most likely intensify in the days ahead.

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  32. PM/DM Bibi Netanyahu earlier today spoke about "special capabilities that no other country in the region has, and some of which which – I am telling you – no other country in the world has.“

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  33. How about this... POTUS and FLOTUS were in Iraq at the Al-Asad Air Base west of Baghdad today. That's were our fight against Islamic State began 3 years ago with the USMC leading the way.

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  34. I was wrong to suggest back on 20 December that this would likely be that last SITREP of 2018. It is not. A new SITREP will be posted this evening.

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    Replies
    1. That's just how fast things are moving in these LAST days

      Delete

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