Global SITREP A4-18: SYRIA - Part II

Updated 28 January 2018: The truth about prophetic fulfillment is as cold as it is brutal. Those who have looked closely Jesus' prophecy regarding the siege and sacking of Jerusalem and the historical accounts of it over the seven years of 67 to 73 AD by five Roman Legions truly understand the reality of the level of coldness and brutality that occurred. It is and will be no different in the modern era, even worse in fact. When the God-breathed prophesies Jeremiah 49:25-26 and Isaiah 17:12-13 were given spoken of the near future in Syria, saying...

"Why is the city of praise not deserted, the city of My joy?
26 Therefore her young men shall fall in her streets,And all the men of war shall be cut off in that day,” says the Lord of hosts."

"Woe to the multitude of many people
Who make a noise like the roar of the seas,
And to the rushing of nations
That make a rushing like the rushing of mighty waters!
13 The nations will rush like the rushing of many waters;
But God will rebuke them and they will flee far away,
And be chased like the chaff of the mountains before the wind,Like a rolling thing before the whirlwind."

we can more fully understand that these living words are not antiseptic and as clean or tidy as the Holy Word pages upon which we read them.

This past Thursday (25 JAN 18) at the UN Security Council Israeli Ambassador Danny Danon revealed classified data collected and corroborated by Israeli intelligence that was approved for the world to know by Israel's Security Cabinet. The formerly classified data revealed Ambassador Danon amounts to something, at best, only guessed at, and more probably never even considered by the global corporate media who are supposed to report truthfully on this war.

We now know that Iran is spending an estimated $35 Billion dollars per year to train, support and arm an 82,000-man military force in Syria. By the numbers, this force constitutes 60,000 males of military age who are almost certainly Syrian Alawites; 10,000 Afghan, Iraqi and Pakistani Shi'a militiamen; 9,000 Hezbollah from Lebanon, and who are all led by a 3,000 member Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps officers. 

Is there any doubt that the IDF will soon have to deal swiftly and effectively in the annihilation of this force as the prophetic words above tell us? Is there any doubt that weaponry of immense power will be required to achieve the objective? Again, Isaiah 17:3 informs us that not only will Damascus become a heap of ruins (which the city certainly is not at this moment in time) but so also will the remainder of Syria. 

Eschatology Today assesses that Ambassador Danon was authorized by the Israeli government to reveal this information in part for the world to understand the level of force Israel will be required to bring down upon these enemies in self defense in the face of Iranian aggression. These prophesies we have been given are completely literal, will come to pass, and as Jesus said, they must take place, but we are not to fear, for the end is not yet. 

Syria - Part III will follow in the days to come.

27 January 2018: Turkey has been warned in no uncertain terms by the US-led CJTF-OIR Coalition to re-think its declared intent to assault the Syrian city of Manbij. If the Turks fail to heed the warning then they'll find themselves being decimated F-22 Raptors and other Coalition aircraft as well as ground forces. CJTF-OIR spokesman (a/k/a the OIRSpox) Colonel Ryan Dillon told the Washington Free Beacon, "Our forces there (Manbij) are well prepared to defend themselves. We have air coverage over all our troops so we're always prepared to defend ourselves, whether it's from ISIS or any other threat." 

It has also come to light via DefenseOne that the 30,000 man "border security force" is not a phrase that originated with the US CENTCOM commander (GEN Joseph Votel). In a December interview with the Associated Press Gen. Votel described the training of local Kurdish and Arabs in northern Syria to defend against a "resurgence of ISIS" in their regions. The AP reporter incorrectly used the phrase "border security force" and Turkey seized upon that as a pretext to launch its invasion of the Aleppo Governorate. Clearly the Turkish operation had been planned over an extended period of time. So here we have a case where the media, the AP in particular, have blood on their hands in giving the Turks a pretext to invade Syria and which may eventually lead to combat between Turkey and NATO and the CJTF-OIR allies in Syria. Anyone taking the AP to task over this? All we hear are crickets.

25 January 2018: The potential for a direct military engagement between NATO allies US and Turkey west of the Euphrates River in the Manbij region of northern Syria was the subject of a warning President Trump gave to President Erdogan yesterday during a phone call between them. According to the White House readout of that conversation, Trump "urged Turkey to exercise caution and to avoid any action that might risk conflict between Turkish and American forces." 

The Eschatology Today assessment is that (as a starting point of negotiation) an agreement should be made between the NATO allies which is similar to that of Israel on its Golan border with Syria regarding Hezbollah/Iranian encroachment. Along the Turkish border west of the Euphrates River a minimum 5-mile wide security zone be established where no armed militias would be permitted to operate. This would include all armed militias, but especially the Turkey-supported FSA and the US-supported YPG militias. The zone and border crossings could be secured by joint NATO security forces, such as is the case of the UNDOF forces on the Golan.

Whether or not something like this is achieved remains to be seen. Erdogan may need a way to save face in the wake of his bellicose statements of late and such an agreement might facilitate this objective. What is also clear is that Turkey could not execute its offensive operations in the Aleppo Governorate without Russian forces in Syria standing down and permitting the execution of Operation Olive Branch. What is certain is that the Davos World Economic Forum will be the scene of intense diplomatic efforts in a final attempt to preclude a catastrophe in Syria. Obviously, those efforts are not likely to succeed according to the prophetic texts of Jeremiah and Isaiah.

24 January 2018: The Turks have actually run into fierce resistance from the Afrin Kurds YPG militia. (NOTE: Standing with the Kurds against the Turkish invasion are volunteers from the US, UK, Germany, France, Spain and several other NATO countries and well as some Asian nations. They are standing with the Kurds because the Kurds stood with the US-led Coalition fighting Islamic State.) A couple of days into the operation and the Turks have barely advanced a little more than a few miles into Syrian territory. There's apparently more bark in Erdogan's rhetoric than real bite, at least thus far. Obviously both Arabs and Kurds still have exposed raw nerves due to the oppression they suffered at the hands of their former Ottoman Turk overlords of a century ago. Old wounds reopened.

The bigger update, however, centers on the conflict brewing between Russia and the U.S. over Syria's renewed use of chemical weapons against rebel forces. US SECSTATE Rex Tillerson placed "ultimate responsibility" for the renewed chemical warfare upon Russia, accusing the Russian government of "shielding" the Al-Assad regime from full exposure of its war crimes and crimes against humanity from 2013 to the present. Strong words. This is the kind of thing - in northwestern Syria no less - that could lead to the kind of catastrophe foretold by Jeremiah. The potential for such a catastrophe expands exponentially with each passing hour.

21 January 2018: Turkish artillery and jets bombing the Afrin district of Aleppo Governorate as part of their proclaimed "Operation Olive Branch" have been met by stiff resistance from the Kurds of the YPG militia. This morning the Kurds stuck back at the town of Reyhanli in Turkey's Hatay Province to the west and the town of Kilis to the north with rocket fire. With the Turkish bombardment killing Kurdish civilians, the Kurds decided to return fire in an eye-for-eye fashion upon Turkey itself. Turkish hatred of the Kurdish people is reminiscent of the Turkish hatred of the Armenian people and the resultant genocide of the early 20th Century. Is history repeating itself?

There is also a key distinction to be made in this part of Syria for the benefit of our readers in their understanding of the war. The Free Syrian Army (FSA) here is more correctly identified as the Turkish Free Syrian Army (TFSA), and is not to be confused with the Free Syrian Army operating in other battlefields of the Syrian Civil War. The TFSA was re-branded the Syrian National Army (SNA) by Turkey in May of 2017 during its Operation Euphrates Shield (OES), the purpose of which was to prevent the Kurds of northern Syria from establishing contiguous territory under their control along the length of the Turkish border. Members of the TFSA/SNA are primary Turkomen and Arabs and are without question a proxy force under Turkish government control. They fight against the SDF/YPG within the U.S.-led CJTF-OIR. This would appear to make the life expectancy of Turkish membership within NATO one of very limited duration should things go from bad to worse.

It must be noted that since the start of the Syrian Civil War, this region of Syria has not seen major warfare erupt until yesterday. The relative peace enjoyed by hundreds of thousand of civilian populations on both side of the border came to an abrupt end when Turkey's Islamist warlord Erdogan launched his grossly misnamed 'Operation Olive Branch' at 5 PM local time yesterday. The objective of this Turkish aggression is genocide of the indigenous Kurdish population and the destruction of the US-allied YPG. In sum, Turkey has unilaterally widened the war in Syria. 

The U.S. is "very concerned" with Turkey's military invasion and is pressing the Turks hard to limit the scope of Operation Olive Branch, recognizing that it unnecessarily and severely hampers the central goal in the war against the Islamic State. (U.S. State Department press release).

20 January 2018: Northwestern Syria slowly turned into quite the expected conflagration this week thanks to the Islamist warmonger of Turkey, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The U.S. practically begged Erdogan to stand down on his threats to the Kurds (YPG militia) in Afrin. 

The Syrians said any Turkish military incursions into the Aleppo Governorate (within which the 710 square mile Afrin is a district) would be considered acts of aggression, and promised to shoot down Turkish jets, assuming the Russians would allow a NATO country to conduct combat operations over their heads. The Russians had some de-escalation zone troops stationed in Afrin and over the past 48 hours began pulling them out into other places in Aleppo Governorate. 

Kurdish YPG forces from the east near Manbij are reportedly moving enmasse to support their kin in Afrin. It's all a real hot mess with columns of Turkish heavy armor massed just across the border and nearly 200,000 civilians and refugees from elsewhere in Syria caught in the crossfire. The Kurds say there are 1 million people in northern Syria along the Turkish border.

The Kurdish YPG are allied with the Syrian Democratic Forces (Kurds and Arabs of the SDF) who are a part of the U.S.-led CJTF OIR Coalition fighting the remaining forces of the Islamic State in Syria. These are the same militias that the U.S. is hoping to transform into a border security force of about three brigades strong for northern and eastern Syria. Oh, and did we report here recently that "It's on" in Syria? You better believe it's on. Almost a free-for-all gunfight is looming.

This morning Turkish jets began bombing Kurdish targets in the Afrin District, and Erdogan said the offensive would shortly expand in scope to the town of Manbij. U.S. troops supporting the YPG militia have been in in Manbij for about a year now. They were attacked by Turkish-backed rebel back in March of last year. Those Turkish supported rebels attempted to conquer Manbij but the U.S.-led defenders stopped them cold.

A full-scale Turkish Army offensive would a something of an entirely different nature. The weekend is still young. Eyes open. As a reminder, the Eschatology Today view is that anything going on in Syria today is directly related to the fulfillment of Jeremiah 49:23-27 and ultimately to Isaiah 17.

Global SITREP C10-17: Back to Syria

IDF Northern Command Exercise "Light of Dagan"

UPDATE 15 September 2017: Some may have taken notice, but some may not, that the warfighting occurring in eastern Syria at this time is defining the border that will exist in the future between Israel and the land Bible prophecy refers to as 'Assyria' ('Ashshuwr). (Isaiah 19:23-25)  That border will be the Euphrates River in Syria. In fact, there is something more that very few Christians in the West are aware of: a great many of the soldiers currently spearheading the CJTF-OIR offensive discussed below in the Khabur River valley and Euphrates River valley are ethnic Assyrians. Ethnic Assyrians are overwhemlingly Christian.

12 September 2017: There are major changes occurring on the Syrian battlefield, from the Golan to the Jordanian border to the Iraq border. Most alarming are reports that Hezbollah forces have taken positions on the Jordanian border along with elements of a Syrian armored division. We do not have to guess that this development, if confirmed, seriously crosses one of Israel's red lines.

Israel has an ongoing all-forces warfighting exercise to simulate a Hezbollah incursion from Lebanon; halting that incursion and then going on offense to eradicate the Iranian proxy once and for all. As for Syria and the threats its Deputy Foreign Minister recently made against Israel, Israel Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman responded with a blunt statement of his own, saying, "I strongly suggest to our neighbors from the north not to try us or send threats, because we take all threats seriously. And I do not suggest that they test us, and I do not advise them to enter into a confrontation with the State of Israel. Because for them it will end badly, very badly."

To the east, there appears to be some cooperation (deconfliction) between US-backed forces (CJTF-OIR allied Syrian Democratic Forces or SDF) moving southwards along the east bank of the Euphrates River and the Khabur River valley towards the Iraqi border, and Syrian/Hezbollah/Iranian proxies moving in the same direction along the west bank of the Euphrates River. Both forces are squeezing what's left of Islamic State forces in eastern Syria. Some reports hold that there's only 10 miles separating these two forces in the vicinity of Deir Ezzor, Syria.

The map above depicts the military situation in Syria on 5 September 2017. To this map, and based upon recent OSINT, I have illustrated with red arrows the CJTF-OIR offensive and objective moving southeasterly along the east bank of the Euphrates River and south through the Khabur River valley from Syrian Kurdistan (yellow area). These forces will push through the rapidly diminishing Islamic State controlled territory (gray area) towards Deir Ezzor and Al-Mayadin, Syria and ultimately to the final objective corridor from Abu Hamam, and Al-Bukamal to Al Qaim on the Syrian-Iraqi border. 

It is critically important to note that the success of this mission will preempt the Iranian objective of establishing a "land bridge" from Iran to the Mediterranean Coast. This is where a direct military clash between the US-led CJTF-OIR forces and Iranian, Syrian and Hezbollah forces is most likely to occur in late September or early October. The final rub will come when CJTF-OIR and SDF forces have defeated Islamic States forces and move to turn over the territory they've cleared to local civilian representative councils (anti-Assad), as has already been done in central Syria. The local populace councils (Sunni Muslim) will then manage security and the governance of the region with CJTF-OIR coalition support.

16 August 2017: Israel has discovered through its EROS-B satellite reconnaissance imagery, operated by the Israeli firm ImageSat, that Iranian construction of a major ballistic missile production and storage facility in a wide valley known as Wadi Jan'em. This massive facility lies five miles west of the coastal town of Baniyas, and is rapidly nearing completion, possibly if not probably before the end of this year. This facility is located well within the Russian air defense umbrella located less than six miles to the northwest at Hmeimim Air Base. PM Netanyahu has stated that Israel will do whatever is necessary in the protection of its national security interest.

The Google Earth image above shows the full scope of the construction area. The major southwest to northeast and northwest to southeast axis of the construction zone measure one mile by two miles, respectively, in length each. They contain at least 20 large buildings along each axis. Some images in the media of this construction only show a small portion of the area in the upper right-hand part of the above image. The above image shows the full scope of the construction zone.

Most western media report this massive facility to be a "Scud" missile factory. However, that identification for this site is quite inaccurate. It would be better to state that this is one very massive and advanced long-range missile production complex that is capable of producing every part of a ballistic missile, from engine and fuel, to the fuselage, to the explosive in the warhead.  As if the Middle East needed yet another potential flash-point for a greater conflict, this one is begging to be struck by Israeli air power sooner rather than later, and not unlike the IAF mission of nearly ten years ago against a nuclear reactor at Al Kibar, and which we remember in vivid detail as 'Operation Orchard' (September 2007).