Tuesday, December 6, 2011

The War on Iran

06 December 2011: The battlefield has been prepared and the war on Iran is on. November 12, 2011 is the day I believe this war transitioned from a covert action cyberwar (Stuxnet, Duqu trojans) to an overt action conventional war, which itself is an escalation in real kinetic terms, in a final attempt to preempt a regional unconventional war featuring missile-borne weapons of mass destruction.

November 12 was the day when, as seen in the image above, two United States Navy Nimitz-class nuclear-armed super-carriers, USS John C. Stennis (CVN 74) and USS George H. W. Bush (CVN 77) steamed in unprecedented fashion side-by-side into the Strait of Hormuz choke-point at the entrance to the Persian Gulf. American aircraft carriers have transited the Strait of Hormuz hundreds of times over the past 32 years, but never in such a bristling array as this. The message to Tehran and Qom was unambiguous as unambiguous gets.

November 12 was also the day that a massive explosion all but destroyed the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps solid-fuel missile production and testing complex at Al-Ghadeer. The Institute for Science and International Security posted a .pdf report on its website on 28 November that included before and after satellite imagery detailing the near leveling of the base and explaining why the funeral of the IRGC's missile chief, Major General Hassan Moghaddam and 36 other IRGC officers, was conducted in a closed casket procession. So powerful was the detonation that those caskets might well have been empty and of symbolic value only. Many of the production and testing buildings on the base were simply vaporized.

Another explosion at an IRGC weapons depot on the same day not far away also caused massive damage and death to the IRGC missile corps. Recall that a similar explosion occurred at the IRGC's Imam Ali Air Base Shahab-3 missile storage site in Lorestan Province a year earlier. And ten days later a secret weapons depot jointly run by the IRGC and Hezbollah in an area allegedly under the control of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) was blown up not far from the coastal city of Tyre. That weapons depot was clearly in violation of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701, but, as usual, nary a word has been said about that minor detail.

Since November 12th the Iranian government has dispatched its Basij street thug militia, the same militia which beat down, imprisoned and murdered hundreds of Iranian student protestors not so long ago, to ransack and burn the Embassy of the United Kingdom and its diplomatic residences. Ambassadors were recalled, staff was sent home, offices were shuttered, you know, all the things that happen as war a between the countries is erupting. Christians who know their Bible should also realize how prophetic all of this is.


Drew said...

Yes, it does seem that things are ecallating from what has appeared to be a covert war, to a gathering storm of all of the horrors of the modern battlefield.

Not only have the US Navy carriers mentioned above entered the gulf, the Russians and the American Navy are playing tag and hide and seek off the coast of Syria.

On December 4th the Syrian army staged a live-fire drill in the eastern part of the country under war-like circumstances with the aim of testing its missile weaponry in confronting any attack. It looks like Assad was sending a message to Israel, Tirkey and the US.

Additonally, the political rhetoric, always flying fast and furrious when it involves Israel, has stepped up in recent days. I could see the pressure on Assad of Syria becomming so unbearable that he is provoked into doing something stupid. Once Iran's proxies are involved, it is then only a matter of time untill Israel brings Iran to account, and that of course will bring the US and possibly Russia into the fray.

The cast appears to be gathering, and the curtain is about to go up, I think. It is amazing to watch prophecy taking place right now! If not the beginning of the wars we have discussed here, then it certainly looks as though it is setting the stage for them to come in the near future!

I think I hear the angel warming up to blow that horn, and then we will go home!

Great Grany 5 said...

There is something in the air, you can feel it, taste it and yet no one has named it. Fear could be part of the equation but I don't believe that is the element in question. Seems more like 'what is the next BIG Move and who will be the catalyst that begins it. This same feeling or atmosphere was present prior to WW2 but to a greater extent.
My grandfather was a very strong Christian and he KNEW that there was a terrible era about to begin. He didn't know what it was but he would spend evenings and weekends trying to instill in all of his family the wisdom it would require to survive the coming Storm.
Is it that kind of intuitive element that we, as Believers in God's Word, are sensing? Could be but I was of the opinion it was because I know I am fast approaching the final chapter of my life on earth. But this recent episode that Sean has just shared with us has put some puzzle pieces together very nicely. To the point that I think I will stick around for the SHOUT!
When Syria threatened to flatten Tel Aviv, I loved the response it got from Netanyahu. It was as if Is. 17 suddenly burst wide open. Damascus will become a waste place without habitation.
Don't forget, he who watches and guards Israel never slumbers or sleeps. Russia, Syria and other Arab nations all conspired to attack Israel prior to the 6 day war and they got their rear ends kicked.
My trust is in the ONE who watches Israel, wide awake and quite able to turn back all the weapons against the attackers.

hartdawg said...

I used to think isa. 17 and psalm 83 were the same battle, I'm starting to rethink my position. I'm starting to think Isaiah 17 and Jeremiah 49 (destruction of Elam) occur at the same time and psalm 83 occurs later. what do you think?

Nathan Jones said...

Thank you for connecting all the dots for us, Sean. Excellent piece! Absolutely awesome seeing two aircraft carriers side-by-side.

SeanOsborne said...

This is but a four-week snap-shot, and from with this time frame I intentionally omitted any mention of the RQ-170 Sentinel, the stealthy airborne surveillance drone that came down in Iran about two weeks ago since that was clearly a covert operation, as well as the overt belligerence coming from both Russia and Communist China in the past couple of weeks or so.

Oh well, as our Lord said, these things must take place...

Great Grany 5 said...

is there an outside chance that the drone mentioned here might be a Trojan Horse of sorts? The idea has been tossed about on the internet and I can't help but wonder at the magnitude of incompetence involved misplacing such an expensive toy.
IT's are especially suspicious of the real story.
Any light you can shine on the subject?

SeanOsborne said...

I was hoping that a 'trojan horse' scenario was at play - Israel used such a tactic to great effect against Hezbollah recently - because what the Iranian's put on TV does not look like an RQ-170, so I was optimistic about that kind of scenario.

However, it looks like the drone more or less landed itself, as it is supposed to do, when some kind of in-flight problem occurred. The Sentinel should have returned to base (RTB) but apparnetly what ever malfunction occurred prevent that from happening.

Iranian claims to having brought the RQ-170 down are completely bogus. They do not possess the technical capability to do that.

mark3210 said...

How do you know other countries like Russia or China didn't give Iran the tech needed to land the drone?
How much intel do you think they've been able to get from it?
Do you think the drone incident will effect the timing of a full blown war?

SeanOsborne said...

Mark asks: "How do you know other countries like Russia or China didn't give Iran the tech needed to land the drone?"

I know because I collect intelligence data on such things from multiple sources. I know what has been provided to Iran is a passive truck-mounted Kvant 1L222 Avtobaza ELINT System. It is not capable of bring anything down out of the sky except for radar signals. I also know Russia has not provided the 1L125M APUR radar jamming system to Iran.

"How much intel do you think they've been able to get from it?"

Nothing of any use. The classified hardware was auto-destructed as is the norm. Why do you think the Iranians covered up the underside of the fuselage with that goofy bunting material? It's because the underside of the fuselage is where all of those goodies when they were fully functional.

"Do you think the drone incident will effect the timing of a full blown war?"

No, I do not. The fact of the matter is that the loss of the RQ-170 is a casualty of the war that is already ongoing.

mark3210 said...

While there's certainly a war going on now it feels like some sort of strange state of limbo where both sides taking measured actions and still not willing to acknowledge it publicly.
Surely though we are going to see a big escalation soon if you're right about the timing.

SeanOsborne said...

Yup, the first paragraph of the article pretty much sums it up.

And when the escalation occurs it will be because the smaller covert, cyber and kinetic actions were a mission failure.

Great Grany 5 said...

Reading Debkafile today was sure an eye opener for those who think military action won't be required soon. The article began with this: "A large Iranian delegation led by Intelligence Minister Heidar Moslehi visited Riyadh Monday, Dec. 12 and put a proposition before Crown Prince Nayef bin Abdulaziz: Why not bury the Saudi royal house's historic feud with the ayatollahs of Tehran and form an anti-US and anti-Zionist pact for leading the Middle East? The Iranians boasted that after the seizure of America's top secret drone technology by a successful cyber attack they must now be accepted as the superpower of the region." The Saudi response was broadcast over "television network Al Arabiya attributed the explosion at the Moadarress Iranian missile base in the Malard region west of Tehran on Saturday, December 10, to an assassination plot against Ayatollah Khamenei (which was first reported by DEBKA-Net-Weekly 519 on Dec. 2)."
One of the things I have noticed about the Iranians is they do a lot of self back slapping but they seem to have a very difficult time telling the truth. Do you suppose it is demonic in nature?

I am so glad that I am living to see all of this prophetic action taking place and yes, I do believe that the WAR is already raging and has been long before BOO HOO crept into office.

Have a great end of the week and just think about the promised Shout that is coming soon, very soon!

Drew said...

It is reported this morning that Iran has warned the US not to send a US carrier (probably referring to the Stenis)through the Straits of Hormuz into the Persian Gulf again. If we do, according to Iran, it will mean war.

I have to think that they are trying to goad us into doing this as they know that if the US refuses to now send a carrier back to the Gulf, we would in fact be acknowledging Iran's right to control the flow of traffic into and out of the Gulf through the straits. Something we will not do as it will mean then Iran gets to control the flow of gulf oil to the world! One can only imagine what may happen as the Stenis sails back into the Gulf in the next few hours. Rockets may be flying and bombs may be dropping, and the wheels of prophecy may be turning quickly!

So, I think we nood to get ready, the next chess move is about to be made. I think that I shall spend much time in prayer of the next few days over this situation.