Friday, February 28, 2020

Global SITREP A9-20: Big Operations Coming and Ongoing

Merkava Mk4 MBT
UPDATE BELOW 24 February 2020: All indications point towards the IDF launching major military operations to fundamentally if not radically change the situation in Gaza. Such an operation could easily expand to operations against other military adversaries in the north.

Exact execution date/time is unknown, but it is close, possibly even within a week or so after the new election. The Likud currently leads in polling data, so PM Netanyahu may believe he has a free hand to do what has been promised for so long in the near term.

Map from Global SITREP C10-18  07SEP20`8
28 February 2020: Based upon the prophecy in Jeremiah 49:23-27 Eschatology Today has multipleblog posts anticipating a mjaor escalation in the fighting in northwestern Syria (Idlib Province) for the better part of two years. 

This morning an emergency meeting of NATO, under Article 4 of the NATO charter, will occur at Turkey's request following an airstrike last evening by the Syrian Arab Air Force (SAAF) on Turkish armed forces in Idlib. The SAAF strike killed 33 Turkish soldiers. In retaliation Turkish airstrikes have been pounding a broad range of Syrian Arab Army (SAA) positions and depots for hours on end, with the Turkish defense ministry estimating the neutralizing of at least 300 SAA troops, and other foreign sources estimating only a couple dozen SAA troops have been killed in the ongoing retaliation. 

Thus, the crisis between Turkey and Russia/Iran-backed Syria has reached an unprecedented level of escalation. Additionally, multiple intelligence reports confirm that two Russian naval frigates armed with Kalibur-NK cruise missiles have deployed the Mediterranean Sea from the RussianBlack Sea Fleet. One Russian lawmaker has directly threatened the Turkish forces. The cruise missiles almost certainly would be used against Turkish forces. Ironically, the Turkish forces in Idlib are there under an agreement with Russia to defend ethnic Turks from the SAA. Turkey and Russia are no where near being allies, even Iran is predicting a Turkish defeat in Syria.

In southern Syria last night there was a significant engagement between IDF attack helicopters and "Syrian" troops in the area between Hader and Quneitra on the Golan. The "Syrian" troops could be a mix of SAA, Hezbollah and IRGC-QF troops who are well-known to disguise themselves in SAA uniforms. There were two separate IDF heliborne strikes yesterday. In the first a high-level Hezbollah officer, Imad Tawil, was reportedly killed; in the second several of the "Syrian" troops were severely injured. These troops have been busy establishing forward combat positions on the Golan for IRGC-QF operations against Israel.

New developments today may resolve some of the ambiguities in current OSINT reporting. Watching closely...

Turkish Bayraktar TB2 UAV
UPDATE 10 March 2020: The crisis discussed above can now be understood in very clear terms. The all but full-scale war in Idlib, which had a good chance of pitting Turkey directly against Russian forces in Syria, resulted in an unambiguous Turkish victory. 

The hundreds of Syrian tanks and armored vehicles that were destroyed in and around the town of Saraqeb owe their miserable fate largely to the Turkish drone imaged above, the Bayraktar TB2. The relatively cheap drone was instrumental in not only halting the Syrians in their tracks but in getting Vladimir Putin's undivided attention. This resulted in the Erdogan-Putin summit and ceasefire agreement of last Thursday. Putin's attention was piqued by the fact that Turkey has sold several of the Bayraktar TB2 drones to Ukraine which could easily be turned loose on pro-Russian forces in eastern Ukraine to devastating effect.

Skirmishing in Idlib is sporadic, but these are nothing like the pitched battle of two weeks ago which destroyed the Syrian Army day and night without cessation. Russia could have intervened directly, but the cost over a small province such as Idlib was obviously not something Putin would go all-in on. So, for the moment a fragile ceasefire remains in place. Hundred of Turkish Army reinforcements have flooded into Idlib during the present lull. And that's all this is, a lull in the fighting.

Wednesday, February 12, 2020

Global SITREP A8-20: Situation Chaotic

Turkish Army advances in Idlib
12 February 2020: Once again we're back with an eye on Syria. The situation there continues to deteriorate. Aside from the IAF strikes in recent days against Iranian encroachment, which the Russians say could lead to all-out war between Syria and Israel with Russia supporting Syria, we also have the increasing likelihood of all-out war between Turkey and Syria. 

And where else would this erupt in full but in the same general locale as we've been looking at for some time now - northwest Syria, the province of Idlib. Remember how Jeremiah 49:23-27 specifically identified this region! And the Turkish leadership also threatens today to attack Syrian forces anywhere in Syria, including Damascus. Wars and rumors of war. 

And all the grotesque things (famine, pestilence) that come with war which are making northwestern Syria a humanitarian catastrophe. Since the Syrian, Iranian and Russian military offensive began in February 2019 over 1 million refugees have been pushed towards the Turkish border; those who refuse to be pushed out (ethnic cleansing) are massacred by indiscriminant airstrikes and shelling of civilian neighborhoods, hospitals and schools. No question about war crimes taking place. But these are still the beginning of sorrows.

Speaking of which, a plague of locusts in East Africa will most certainly increase the already rampant famine there and even further afield. The 2019-nCoV is now beyond all attempts to contain and control it, and it's not the only viral outbreak occurring. Then there are the quakes rumbling around the globle, Japan, Papua New Guinea and Iran being the most recent. All these things are occurring simultaneously around the globe, and people just go about their daily routines in other places. Just as we've been told it would be. Our focus is on Bible prophecy, as always.

Sunday, February 2, 2020

Global SITREP A7-20: NATO & Israel a Covenant Among Many

NATO and Israel: A Covenant Among Many

2 February 2020: Here we have yet another Eschatology Today published subject from ten years ago (2010) which is now elevated for a second time to a full SITREP. Ten years ago not many paid much attention to that post, the crux of which was the threat posed by Iranian ballistic missiles as a mutual threat to both NATO and Israel. The NATO ALTBMDS program in the past decade has matured into the NATO BMD (Ballistic Missile Defense) with Initial Operational Capability (IOC) achieved in 2016. The NATO BMD was exercised in Israel last year. Moreover, Israel tested a new rocket for the BMD system just days ago. Israel is the front line for the NATO BMD system of systems. In May of 2016 we had Global SITREP C2-16: Israel Takes a Big Step Towards a Covenant Among Many. So, this topic should really not be new news for any reader of Eschatology Today as over 1,400 of you read it. SITREP A7-20 will both buttress and expand upon what we already know.

Full membership in NATO for Israel, which requires the assent of all NATO members, had for six years been blocked by Turkey since 2010. In 2016, Turkey dropped its objection, and Israel's slow integration into NATO has proceeded apace. in 2017 Israel signed a cooperation agreement with NATO. Three years later, and according to the European view, Israel has become a premier partner for NATO as a 25-year long member of NATO's 'Mediterranean Dialogue' with a liaison office in the Brussels HQ of NATO. In April 2019 IDF solders were side by side with NATO troops in the American-led "Allied Spirit" exercise in Hohenfels, Germany. Israel's participation and technological advancements in the massive Defender 2020 (February-June 2020) are assured. Defender 2020 will insert massive numbers heavy, armored forces into Europe, from the Baltic to the Republic of Georgia.

Full membership in NATO for Israel through the Membership Action Plan (MAP) is just a matter of time in fulfillment of Daniel 9:27. The MAP is a process which can take a few years under normal conditions. Since 2008 NATO and Israel have also been in an Individual Cooperation Program (ICP). Israel is the only nation outside of Europe in an ICP with NATO. The ICP coordinates repose to terrorism, intelligence sharing, armaments, NBC defense, military doctrine, exercises, civilian emergency and disaster preparedness. In 2020 everything is present except for the actual accession, or confirming of membership in NATO.

What is NATO? NATO is the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. It could just as easily be called the North Atlantic Covenant Organization, for that is exactly what NATO is, a covenant among many nations for their common defense, and much, much more. It arose concurrently with the rebirth of Israel after WWII. And NATO not European-centric due to the presence of the United States of America and Canada as founding members. Yet the heart of NATO, its headquarters and membership is in Europe. 

Finally, if a major NATO war erupted today there is no question whatsoever that the Israel Defense Forces would participate in active theater warfare as a de facto member of the North Atlantic Treaty (Covenant).