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Natanz nuclear facility post-GBU-57 MOP |
UPDATED 26 June 2025: Israel's Operation Rising Lion turned out to be an undeclared 12-day war (12-23 June) against the Twelver regime of Iran. After the U.S. Midnight Hammer strikes on Fordo, Natanz (black dot in the image above) and Isfahan, which were not a declaration of war, but a well-planned and perfectly executed coup de grĂ¢ce to force the Twelver leadership to sue for a cessation of hostilities. This was achieved and for the time being tenuous hudna (ceasefire) between Israel and Iran has literally been "hammered" into effect. How long this will endure is subject to rife speculation, conjecture and future events.
Not long after the hudna was accepted the Twelver Parliament voted near unanimously (one abstention, zero no votes) to renew the regime's nuclear program. Of course, the operating reactor at Bushehr was never touched over the 12 days of war, meaning even after this war Iran may still have a path to nuclear weaponization. Both the U.S. and Israel say that evidence of renewed nuclear weaponization would lead to new strikes.
A curious thing occurred over the 12 days of intense Israeli air strikes in Iran. The IAF flew its numerous airstrike packages unimpeded over Syria and Iraq with nary a whimper from either country. Not many countries around the world objected either.
According to Israeli officials in Mossad and the IDF their forces have long been inside Iran and will stay in place for the foreseeable future. Some are suggesting that the objective now is to facture Iran into several ethnic polities (Kurds, Arabs, Baloch's, Azeris, etc.). This also is strong I&W that the confrontation with Iran is not over but has been put into a temporary hiatus, thus confirming Jeremiah's prophecy.
27 June 2025: Three quick notes.
1.) Heavy construction equipment is already busy moving earth at the Fordo nuclear complex. The IRGC clearly wants to get back inside the mountain quickly.
2.) The IAF chief has directed his forces to ensure air superiority in Iranian airspace for the foreseeable future and to continue suppression of Iranian ballistic missiles.
3.) President Trump days he'll for certain order new strikes in Iran if the situation warrants. I assess that Trump prematurely let Iran and the IRGC off the hook and has made a serious miscalculation in not taking out the Ayatollah.
UPDATE 5 July 2025: We've said so previously and it warrants repeating and/or a reminder: the war with the Twelver regime in Iran IS NOT OVER. Not for the State of Israel and not for the United States of America. The belligerent threats coming from the black turbaned mullahs are unlimited and unending. The fearful damage done across the entire spectrum of their military capabilities has truly caused much dismay among the Twelver elites, but their core theological beliefs remain unbowed. The fervent desire to destroy America and Israel is more pronounced than before and for this objective the mullahs will require a nuclear weapons capability with a low-tech delivery method of the most rudimentary kind. By ship or camel they will use whatever method is available. And so the inevitability of renewed warfare is assured, from now until Ezekiel 38/39.
Closing SITREP B3-25 with this statement from my last comment:
"Judgment has begun, and it's in an ongoing process of fulfillment."