Wednesday, December 4, 2013

Global SITREP B9-13: A Nuclear Iran

04 December 2013: The overnight assassination of the Hezbollah commander for terrorist operations on foreign soil, Hajj Hassan Hollo al-Laqqis (his Jeep Cherokee looks like so much metallic Swiss cheese from automatic weapons fire), has to have had an effect on the enemy forces. Instead of blowing him up as was done to his Hezbollah predecessor Hajj Imad Mughniyeh, this assassination team got up very close and personal in dispatching this terrorist to his eternal fate. Were it possible to do the same to Ayatollah Khamenei or Hassan Nasrallah that would be the case, and that is the message that has been sent by this assassination: This and worse is waiting for you when the time comes (see Psalm 83:9-12 for the gruesome prophetic details).



02 December 2013: Unless the military option is exercised by the State of Israel at the direction of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu within a very narrow window, there is nothing else on this earth that will prevent the Islamic Republic of Iran from arming itself with nuclear weapons of its own manufacture from start to finish.  These nuclear weapons will range from Radiological Dispersion Devices (RDD), the so-called "dirty bombs," to theater and strategic nuclear weapons in the form of warheads fitted upon cruise and ballistic missiles. Both the United States of America and the State of Israel appear to have talked the talk but failed to walk the walk to prevent this catastrophe from occurring. The world's foremost state sponsor of terrorism, with an apocalyptic national doctrine based upon Shi'a Twelver eschatology, is now within a very few days of acquiring the method with which it can achieve its goal.

19 comments:

Scipio said...

Sean, I am somewhat dumbfounded that the IAF hasn't struck yet still, and we know with certainty, the PS 83 and Is. 17 results. We also know that Israel is not greatly damaged but partially, more of a surrogate effort thru Hezbollah rather than a really large 'elimination' strike by Iran. Perhaps Iran tries the above scenario, sees the Damascus (and other) destruction and is afraid to move further?

Sean Osborne said...

Mark wrote:

"Naftali Bennett was on FOX today telling American viewers the bad deal makes military action closer."

How close do the Israeli's want to cut it? It is virtually too late right now.

According to ex-DIRCIA General Michael Hayden and ex-AMAN (IDF Intelligence Directorate) chief Maj.Gen Amos Yadlin the E3/EU+3 Iran Talks "essentially allowed the Islamic Republic to become a “nuclear threshold state.”

This is according to a pair of reports from:

A.) Israel Today.com

and

B.) the algemeiner

Therefore, the so-called "bad deal" is actually a ludicrous deal that achieves nothing but a nuclear-armed Iran within days from today.

More importantly, going all the way back to the George W. Bush Administration the US did exactly diddley squat to ensure that Iran did not become nuclear armed. Nothing, zero, zip, nada.

This ludicrous situation is not Israel's fault, or Bibi Netanyahu's fault, but the fault of the feckless Western powers as a whole.

I find this imminent reality to be unconscionable.

Time's up.

mark3210 said...

I have a pretty strong feeling that tonight is it!

I will be quite surprised if Iran's nuclear facilities are still standing 24 hours from now.

Sean Osborne said...

Mark,

Since most of Iran's nuclear weapons facilities are underground, I think you actually meant to say "I will be quite surprised if Iran's nuclear facilities aren't smoking holes in the ground 24 hours from now."

For me, I will continue to wait and watch.

In the meantime I am about to post a new item on the main-page which I find to be absolutely riveting. I will make the initial post, and then it will undoubtedly occupy much of my time with additional research.

mark3210 said...

I was hoping Israel wouldn't wait for yet another revolting John Kerry visit but here we are.

Sean,
Do you think the Israelis have set a date for a strike and are sticking to it?
Or are we witnessing indecisiveness and dithering since November 24?

I'd feel more confident if the Israelis hadn't allowed so many deadlines to pass already.

Sean Osborne said...

I've bumped this item back to the top of the main page because it is the most currently pressing item that will have to be dealt with - one way or another, by one side or the other.

Mark... I think Israel has been playing a waiting game in deference to their Western allies. But that deference has to have a 'shelf life,' and as stated in the main page item, I have to believe that 'shelf life' has all but expired.

Even in their disbelief of who the Messiah is, Israel's current leadership will not allow the country to be held hostage by a nuclear-armed apocalyptic Islamic regime.

I also have to believe that religious Jews are in active anticipation of the first of the two messiah's they expect to appear, that person being Moshiach ben Joseph. They expect him to appear and lead Israel to victory prior to the appearance of the second messiah, Moshiach ben David.

Just as Shi'a eschatology drives the Iranian regime, so to does Judaism's eschatology drive religious Jews at the present time.

Many Christians spend much time looking at the so-called Islamic al-Mahdi, and virtually no time looking at Jewish eschatology. It is a driving force for both sides. Much more so than anticipated newspaper headlines or the lack thereof.

mark3210 said...

Obviously killing Mugniyah's replacement is very big.

Almost certain to provoke retaliation at some point in time.

Is it not somewhat discouraging that we have to rely on Israel and Saudi Arabia to go after Hezbollah's leaders both in 2008 and now rather than doing it ourselves?

Sean Osborne said...

The multiple bombings in 1983 Lebanon were the work of Mughniyeh and Mustafa Badr al-Din (i.e. Hezbollah).

There is no way of knowing if Israel conducted this assassination, or if we did it, or even France or Saudi. Same goes for February 2008.

The retaliation bobming in March 1985 was almost certainly the US executing a "Mark and Reprisal" reciprocity for the Marine Baracks and US Embassy in Beirut attacks.

The only thing that matters is that this Shi'a terrorist paid the price and his masters know they're next.

mark3210 said...

Sean,
I don't doubt this was one of Hezbollah's top commanders but wasn't Moustafa Amin Bader El-Din called Mugniyah's replacement previously?

Or were Mugniyah's responsibilities transferred to multiple people?

https://www.stop910.com/en/danger7.php

Sean Osborne said...

El-Din runs Hezbollah's security, not in charge of foreign terro operations.

mark3210 said...

This debka headline seems to nicely sum up where things stand now:

"Will Netanyahu Go for a Military Strike Now that Iran Is a Nuclear Threshold State? After failing to prevent Iran becoming a nuclear threshold state, Israel’s Binyamin Netanyahu has practically run out of options."

mark3210 said...

Sean,
If we assume the Israelis aren't concerned about the lunar cycle, when do you think is the cutoff when weather will no longer permit military action?

This report from July says "Netanyahu will have to decide whether to launch an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities by this winter at latest, because after that, the report indicated, the assessment is that Israel’s window for military intervention will close":

http://www.timesofisrael.com/pm-to-push-us-for-more-credible-military-option-on-iran/

So is December 21 the final cutoff?

Sean Osborne said...

Mark,

One cannot assume anything. Ever. particularly when it comes to warfighting in any of its forms.

Making an assumption has never and will never be a part of even the minutest factor in creating a warfighting doctrine, not for adherents of Sun Tzu (The Art of War) or for those of Von Clausewitz (Vom Kreig)school of thought, and of which both are represented in the Israeli military command structure.

Facts are first and foremost, so there's no room for any guesswork or assumptions.

Weather is not the factor being reasoned in the ToI article you cite. What that article was saying back in July, which was well prior to the more recent IAEA assessments of Iran's nuclear capability, was that in their assessment the final window for IDF military action began on 21 December (the first day of winter) and would close before the last day of winter/first day of spring in the third week of March 2014.

The more recent intelligence assessments which are more or less reflected in Eschatology Today's Global SITREP B3-13 of October 2013, as well as B4-13, B5-13, B6-13 and this one, B9-13.

Iran has the capability to construct an RDD (a "dirty bomb") today, it has enough U-235 to construct at least a handful of nuclear weapons within the next two weeks.

Decision time for PM Netanyahu and his cabinet to "go" or "no go" is right here, right now because they are squarely faced with the top critical criteria of laying military plans per Sun Tzu:

1. Preventing an Iranian nuclear weapon is of vital importance to the State of Israel.

2. This is a matter of life or death for the State of Israel, a choice between safety or ruin.

3. All five of the constants are present for Israel at this time: Moral Law, Heaven, Earth, the Commander and Methodology.

The one aspect that neither Sun Tzu or Von Clausewitz never even imagined is present and is the driving force behind the final decision that must be made - total nuclear annihilation.

Since Israel continues according to the Word of God, then all we can do is watch and witness this history unfold before our eyes and become the fact that the Bible declares that it will be.

mark3210 said...

OK, well I had been remembering earlier Israeli reports talking about the winter weather blocking military action. Think they were talking about it more in 2011 or 2012 than this year.

In any case, I'm surprised it's now been 2 full weeks since Geneva, but I agree time is of the essence now.

Could well happen tonight.

Sean Osborne said...

Mark,

There isn't weather anywhere in the Middle East that Israel's military hardware cannot operate in the severest of conditions, any time of day, any day of the year unless it were a sandstorm of Biblical proportions in one of the opposing forces nations. But then other technology would take over and the target would still not survive.

Therefore, weather is not a factor for IDF preemptive strike deliberations. Neither is the level of illumination for the battlefield or for individual targets.

Israel's combat "eyes" see everything in real-time. Not 98% or 99%, but 100%. Everything. When a target, or targets, are identified to be struck it is because Israel's "eyes" were looking at it/them first and are still looking at it when the ordnance goes boom.

mark3210 said...

By the way, I saw the clip of Danny Danon last week saying "Secretary Kerry is coming to Israel again. We cannot count how many times he came already."

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/174832

So clearly the Israelis are as fed up with it as I am. I really hope Israel goes wheels up tonight and finally puts an end to the stalling game!

mark3210 said...

Sean,
I was wondering - are you getting regular updates from that Israeli source you mentioned in October?

Or are you mostly just following OSINT like the rest of us?

This limbo period is strange - I keep checking the news thinking there's maybe a 30% chance of war breaking out each night and then nothing happens.

Sean Osborne said...

Mark,

One never ever reveals sources or methods of intelligence collection. Never. Ever. Period.

And one thing that NO ONE will ever receive is an announcement stating:
"ISRAEL ATTACKS TONITE!"

It will never happen like that. Never. Ever. Especially from me.

It will be both a strategic and tactical surprise for everyone on planet earth except for Netanyahu, his Cabinet, the pilots, the SF and the naval commanders who carry out their orders if and when those orders are issued for execution.

So... the sources I have send their info and I analyze it to see where it fits in with the data that's already known. I see if it is common, every day OSINT or not. I then tell the sources if the info fits in anywhere. This goes on day in and day out.

Know this: I will never reveal ahead of time any information that might compromise an operation what I happen to receiver or piece together. Never gonna happen.

This site is about Bible prophecy and its literal fulfillment in our day. We have days, weeks, months and years to go unless the Harpazo occurs first. Relax and enjoy the ride.

Sean Osborne said...

If one wants to know what will happen in the future one should seek guidance from history.

Other than this, know that Israel awaits an extraordinary moment which the Iranian cannot anticipate.