Saturday, January 11, 2014

Global SITREP B2-14: A Nuclear Iran - Part II

11 January 2014: This blog entry will serve as the new year continuation of Global SITREPs B7-13 and B6-13. We begin with an item I just took note of in my daily morning intel brief which I believe, as raw OSINT intelligence collection is concerned, is an absolute gem that must be shared. 

The Reuters report that Ha'aretz published in its Diplomacy-Defense section Thursday evening informs anyone paying attention that there continue to be Jewish immigrants to Israel from the Islamic Republic of Iran. Native-born speakers of the primary Iranian language known as Farsi are a key objective of IDF recruiters to the extent that one out of every five Jewish Iranian immigrants of military service age find themselves serving in the IDFs legendary intelligence branch known as Unit 8200. Unit 8200 is Israel's version of America's NSACSS or the UK's GCHQ. 

Soldiers of Unit 8200. Photo credit: Moti Milrod

The Reuters report detailed how the recruitment of these native Farsi-speakers has increased since the announcement of an interim accord between the E3/EU+3 group and Iran. It also cited the IDFs own publication, Bamahane, as reporting that dozens of Iranian Jews discretely immigrate to Israel every year from among the approximately 25,000 still living in Iran. 

According to the Unit 8200 training academy's commanding officer, his new Iran-born Farsi-speaking troops make it possible to know everything knowable about the Iranian IRGC and regular military forces "from combat doctrines to weaponry to operational routines to slang terms and codes." During an extensive seven-month training program the comprehension of technical terms is merged with Farsi songs and Persian folklore, thereby vastly improving the quality of the intelligence product ultimately provided to the IDFs senior leadership and, obviously, PM Netanyahu and his Cabinet. 

Make no mistake, Unit 8200 is truly the tip of the IDFs spear. It is where the IDFs warfighting doctrine against the Ayatollah's military machine in Iran and Lebanon will have been born and its victory in the upcoming battles achieved.

Russian-Iranian Sanctions Demolition Deal worth $18 Billion Yearly

Moving on to another matter, the just announced Russia-Iran economic negotiation will cripple the only leverage the West, and Israel by extension, has had thus far over the Iranian nuclear program - the economic sanctions regime.  The economic sanctions regime was the vehicle by which the West's oft-touted on-the-table military option was supposedly held at bay, along with that of Israel's own unilateral military option. With the expected successful conclusion of the Russia-Iran $1.5 Billion per month "Oil For Goods" agreement Obama, Catherine Ashton of the EU, the Brits, Germans and French have nothing to hold in the left hand and an empty arrow quiver in their right hand.

Game. Set. Match. The carrot and stick routine is busted.


One can only wonder what the West (Obama) is saying to Israel (Netanyahu) now aside from the obvious refrain made famous in classic television comedy by the late Jackie Gleason's lovable oaf character 'Ralph Kramden,' "Homina homina homina..." But this is no laughing matter. What option is left for Israel? What deal can the E3/EU+3 possibly hope to achieve with leverage that quite simply no longer exists? Need I state the obvious?

4 comments:

mark3210 said...

Sean,
I know in the Senate there is momentum building to pass the sanctions bill that passed the House last July, but the Senate version will give Obama another year to negotiate before it goes into effect.

And Obama is threatening to veto it!

Sometimes I wonder what planet our politicians are living on. If the Senate finally wanted to do something even symbolic that would "defy" the President, they need to increase sanctions immediately, not in a year!

Sean Osborne said...

Mark,

The Russian & Iranian oil for good deal makes ANY Congressional legislative sanctions on Iran action utterly meaningless.

Bruce Bridges said...

Is this now the official end of diplomacy with regard to Iran? Should we expect to wake up one morning to a news report of a unilateral military strike by Israel?

Sean Osborne said...

Bruce,

I would suspect something like this will occur, but I'm not 100% sure the action will be a unilateral Israeli action.

What I do believe is that the action will reduce Iran into a third rate military threat... something along the lines of Libya or Sudan as Ezekiel 38:5 strongly implies.