Global SITREP E10-14: Preemptive Strikes in the Al-Dimashq of Syria

Contrails assessed to be those of IAF strike aircraft over southern Syria

Update 09 December 2014: There is considerable and mounting evidence that Bashar al-Assad's military forces continues its unrelenting battlefield use of chemical weapons against the array of jihadist forces attacking the regime on all sides. Most recently Syrian government aircraft prevented the military air base at Deir Ez-Zor from being overwhelmed by Islamic State forces during a battle that raged on 6 and 7 December by hitting the IS attackers repeatedly with chlorine gas. Elsewhere, particularly in northern Syria, yellow-colored barrel bombs containing chlorine gas were successfully deployed from regime helicopters to repel al-Nusra in an engagement. The IS jihadists are also using chemical weapons, particularly in the siege warfare that is occurring around Kobani, Syria near the Turkish border according to Kurdish military sources. The specific type of toxic gas has not yet been identified. Does anyone doubt that no matter which side prevails in the Syrian war, eventually they will use their chemical weapons against Israel. See: Isaiah 17.

08 December 2014: In the last quarter of 2013 and first half of 2014 the Bashar al-Assad regime of Syria was forced by a binding agreement between the United States and Russia to divest itself completely of what was considered to be the world's second largest chemical weapons program. By October of this year the lion's share of that WMD capability had been destroyed under international supervision, even though Syria has retained, according to Israeli intelligence, a residual chemical weapons capability amounting to just under ten tons of material. The important thing to note about the US-Russian agreement is that it included a clause whereby foreign airstrikes against the Al-Assad regime would not occur again, and if they did Russia reserved the right to militarily intervene against the attacker in defense of the Syrian Al-Assad regime.

This is the reason behind the current Russian government anger and threats of direct military intervention in the wake of the alleged Israel Air Force strike on Sunday. Obviously the Syrians and the Russians believed the agreement would make Syria immune to any further IAF preemptive strikes on Syrian soil, and until just over 48 hours ago this was the reality they believed existed. However, from the Israeli perspective the agreement was not binding upon Israel in the event of significant ongoing weapons transfers to IRGC/Hezbollah in Lebanon from Syrian soil. The Russians and Syrians see the IAF strike as being directly related to the months-long prospect of the Turkish-US agenda to establish a "no-fly zone" for Syrian military aircraft over northern Syria and thereby directly inhibit its ability to defend against incessant Islamic State attacks along the entire length of the Turkish-Syrian border region. 

Within the cauldron that is Syria today boil the highlighted volatile ingredients for not only a wider regional war, but a war of intercontinental proportions.

07 December 2014: In a repeat of strikes that occurred in May 2013, it is my assessment that the IAF conducted preemptive strikes on specific military targets in the al-Dimashq (Damascus countryside) region of Syria. These targets included the military side of Damascus International Airport and the al-Dimas Air Base. As occurred in May 2013 the targets were advanced military hardware deliveries to Syria intended for IRGC/Hezbollah units in Lebanon.

Without detailed imagery from the sties which were attacked any identification of the military hardware would be speculative at best. However, based upon the targets destroyed in the May 2013 preemptive strikes these targets were most likely a combination of mobile air defense systems similar to the SA-8 Gecko platform or the Russian-made S-300 air defense missiles as well as ballistic missiles such as the Iranian Fateh-110.

Unlike the May 2013 strikes when Syria bit its tongue for several days, this time the al-Assad regime has immediately accused Israel in the attacks. In one just released video taken by a Syrian observer from a safe distance large secondary detonations were occurring at the target site. Below is a screen capture of a secondary detonation from that video.

Secondary detonations

Secondary detonations tend to indicate that these weapons were fueled and/or were armed and had not just arrived at the target sites. Another possibility might be that these weapons were staged and prepared to fire against Islamic State targets elsewhere in Syria. In either eventuality Israel cannot stand down when such weaponry is being prepared for firing. This possibility might also explain the al-Assad regime's immediate reaction to the strikes. Also of note is the fact that once again, as in previous IAF preemptive strikes on Syrian soil, there was absolutely zero Syrian air defense reaction. The IAF can operate with impunity in Syrian skies.