Sunday, December 7, 2014

Global SITREP E10-14: Preemptive Strikes in the Al-Dimashq of Syria

Contrails assessed to be those of IAF strike aircraft over southern Syria

Update 09 December 2014: There is considerable and mounting evidence that Bashar al-Assad's military forces continues its unrelenting battlefield use of chemical weapons against the array of jihadist forces attacking the regime on all sides. Most recently Syrian government aircraft prevented the military air base at Deir Ez-Zor from being overwhelmed by Islamic State forces during a battle that raged on 6 and 7 December by hitting the IS attackers repeatedly with chlorine gas. Elsewhere, particularly in northern Syria, yellow-colored barrel bombs containing chlorine gas were successfully deployed from regime helicopters to repel al-Nusra in an engagement. The IS jihadists are also using chemical weapons, particularly in the siege warfare that is occurring around Kobani, Syria near the Turkish border according to Kurdish military sources. The specific type of toxic gas has not yet been identified. Does anyone doubt that no matter which side prevails in the Syrian war, eventually they will use their chemical weapons against Israel. See: Isaiah 17.

08 December 2014: In the last quarter of 2013 and first half of 2014 the Bashar al-Assad regime of Syria was forced by a binding agreement between the United States and Russia to divest itself completely of what was considered to be the world's second largest chemical weapons program. By October of this year the lion's share of that WMD capability had been destroyed under international supervision, even though Syria has retained, according to Israeli intelligence, a residual chemical weapons capability amounting to just under ten tons of material. The important thing to note about the US-Russian agreement is that it included a clause whereby foreign airstrikes against the Al-Assad regime would not occur again, and if they did Russia reserved the right to militarily intervene against the attacker in defense of the Syrian Al-Assad regime.

This is the reason behind the current Russian government anger and threats of direct military intervention in the wake of the alleged Israel Air Force strike on Sunday. Obviously the Syrians and the Russians believed the agreement would make Syria immune to any further IAF preemptive strikes on Syrian soil, and until just over 48 hours ago this was the reality they believed existed. However, from the Israeli perspective the agreement was not binding upon Israel in the event of significant ongoing weapons transfers to IRGC/Hezbollah in Lebanon from Syrian soil. The Russians and Syrians see the IAF strike as being directly related to the months-long prospect of the Turkish-US agenda to establish a "no-fly zone" for Syrian military aircraft over northern Syria and thereby directly inhibit its ability to defend against incessant Islamic State attacks along the entire length of the Turkish-Syrian border region. 

Within the cauldron that is Syria today boil the highlighted volatile ingredients for not only a wider regional war, but a war of intercontinental proportions.

07 December 2014: In a repeat of strikes that occurred in May 2013, it is my assessment that the IAF conducted preemptive strikes on specific military targets in the al-Dimashq (Damascus countryside) region of Syria. These targets included the military side of Damascus International Airport and the al-Dimas Air Base. As occurred in May 2013 the targets were advanced military hardware deliveries to Syria intended for IRGC/Hezbollah units in Lebanon.

Without detailed imagery from the sties which were attacked any identification of the military hardware would be speculative at best. However, based upon the targets destroyed in the May 2013 preemptive strikes these targets were most likely a combination of mobile air defense systems similar to the SA-8 Gecko platform or the Russian-made S-300 air defense missiles as well as ballistic missiles such as the Iranian Fateh-110.

Unlike the May 2013 strikes when Syria bit its tongue for several days, this time the al-Assad regime has immediately accused Israel in the attacks. In one just released video taken by a Syrian observer from a safe distance large secondary detonations were occurring at the target site. Below is a screen capture of a secondary detonation from that video.

Secondary detonations
Secondary detonations tend to indicate that these weapons were fueled and/or were armed and had not just arrived at the target sites. Another possibility might be that these weapons were staged and prepared to fire against Islamic State targets elsewhere in Syria. In either eventuality Israel cannot stand down when such weaponry is being prepared for firing. This possibility might also explain the al-Assad regime's immediate reaction to the strikes. Also of note is the fact that once again, as in previous IAF preemptive strikes on Syrian soil, there was absolutely zero Syrian air defense reaction. The IAF can operate with impunity in Syrian skies.


hartdawg said...

This is something to watch, but I lean towards Jeremiah 49:35 occurs before Isaiah 17. That said, I don't stand too strongly on that and we should definitely be watching Syria closely

Ken B said...

Seems like we are in the "resting" time before another contraction...

The way things are looking in Israel I expect the next contraction will be a big one. Pure speculation but a lot of un-eventful activity lately… Plus the rest of the world is just churning.

At this point Sean, I can’t see how “Born Again Christian” does NOT see this. Blows my mind!

NG said...

Hi Ken B,

Very interesting comment. I share the same opinion.

Gaza war last summer (that ended end of August) was a contraction. Then it calmed down for a few weeks before violence erupted in Jerusalem and other Israeli cities between end of October and end of November (the next contraction). So there was kind of two month rest between these two summer/fall contractions.

I guess the rest period will be shorter this time.

Sean Osborne said...

Ken B,

Yes, for sure "churning" is an appropriately descriptive word to use. Spot-on I think.

And it seems everyone, or nearly everyone, in Israel believes that 2015 will be the year war with Iran and Hezbollah will erupt. Even the usually stoic Jerusalem Post appears to have resigned to the fact that a great war is inevitable within the next few months.

Hand-in-hand with this is the breaking news about Sunni Muslim Brotherhood HAMAS having crawled its way to Tehran to patch things up with the Ayatollah over Syria.

I also have no doubt that the Orthodox have their eyes peeled at present for Moshiach ben Joseph.

mark3210 said...


Meanwhile stateside, the Senate Democrats are getting ready to attack our country and our intelligence operatives once again.

The end of the Harry Reid controlled Senate can't come soon enough!

Sean Osborne said...

My last comment was deleted... too far off the track of what's going on right now in the Middle East.

Moving on...

mark3210 said...


I see that the Likud primary has been moved up to 12/31.

Do you have a feel for how the Likud race stands now?

It's hard to find polls on it (not that they would necessarily be accurate anyway).

Sean Osborne said...


I'm not going to analyze the coming election nitty-gritty because I already know in advance that God will place the government leadership He wants into power.

jmoll106 said...

Hi Sean,
It seems that in the highlighted paragraph above an event like this one, where Israel goes in and takes out a threat, is the catalyst for the start of the Psalm 83 war.

Sean Osborne said...


The Psalm 83 war has been in the process of fulfillment for almost 67 years.

My expectation in watching the Islamic war transpire in Syria - particularly the use of WMD (chemical weapons) these past few years is the literal fulfillment of Isaiah 17 and Jeremiah 49:23-27.

Remember, these pre-70th Week prophecy fulfillments will come like a flood (sequentially but at once, like Prophetic dominoes as I alluded to in a pair of older articles on this blog).

A flood like this is unstoppable and will sweep away the existing paradigm and leave an entirely new paradigm in the wake.

hartdawg said...

.....and that goes for elections in the US as well

mark3210 said...


I stumbled across this today.

The fact they aren't even lying about their intentions anymore is yet another warning sign.

Sean Osborne said...

This is really nothing new because it is only the West which has consistently disambiguated nuclear weapons from nuclear power.

Nuclear weapons have been the goal since the Shah was in power; this goal was adopted by the Islamic Hojjatieh regime of the Ayatollahs.

The difference is that the Shah was a US and Israeli ally, the Shah would have achieved his goal quietly just as Israel achieved it quietly.