Global SITREP A6-24: The War in the North

Iranian Consulate After the IAF Strikes on 1 April 2024

UPDATED 1 April 2024: It has taken several hours to piece together what occurred in Damascus around 5 PM Israel time today. As can be seen in the image above Israeli F-35I Adir strike aircraft have given a preview of what Damascus itself will look like in the near future according to Isaiah 17 - "a ruinous heap."

According to the preponderance of media sources a pair if IAF F-35I Adir's struck the complex of buildings surrounding the Iranian Embassy in Damascus. Specifically, the consular annex and the Iranian Ambassadors residence were leveled. Multiple fatalities, reportedly numbering 7 individuals, resulted from the strike, chief among them was Brigadier General Mohammed Reza Zahedi, a senior official of the IRGC-Quds Force, his deputy, Brigadier General Mohammed Hajrahimi and Hussain Amir Allah the IRGC Chief of Staff in Syria and Lebanon. The precision airstrike was directed at what the Iranian's believed was a clandestine meeting between the IRGC-QF and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) chiefs. The assessed death toll indicates that other terrorist leaders may have also been in attendance, as well as at least two other Iranian officers. Iran's foreign ministry immediately responded that their response to Israel will be "harsh." 

This strike is indicative that the IDF's directive of last week to expand the war northward has gone into its first phase of execution. It is crystal clear that this was a decapitation strike directed against Iran's senior commanders; it's what a military force would be expected to do at the commencement of major hostilities. Israeli strike aircraft were robustly striking Hezbollah targets in Lebanon and HAMAS, PIJ targets in Gaza. In all of this the IDF has maintained is customary silence with most of the media reporting being attributed to "Israeli officials" leaking data to the New York Times that Israel was responsible for the strikes. Arab media also carried similar reports. The aspect of the strike being a pair of F-35I Adirs may be assessed to Syrian air defenses inability to target for intercept these stealth aircraft in any meaningful manner.

According to Israeli and Western intelligence sources the Iranian Embassy in Damascus, its co-located consulate and annex building were the grand central station of thee IRGC-QF, weapons transfers to Hezbollah, HAMAS, PIJ and even into Judea and Samaria prior to October 7 and to the present. Some will recall that in the past five months Eschatology Today revealed that the Iranian Twelvers stated they were withdrawing all of the senior military "advisors" from Syria following Israel's assassination of Major General Razi Mousavi on Christmas Day 2023, and the strike in Damascus on 20 January 2024 which killed five high-ranking IRGC-QF officers, including a pair of deputy intelligence officers, Sadegh Omidzadeh and Hajj Gholam. The one thing Iran is more prolific in other than terrorism and outright warfare against Israel is lying through their Twelver teeth.

Yesterday morning well-known IDF spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari announced that the IRGC-QF was responsible for the drone attack on the Israeli naval base in Eilat which was launched from Iraq and overflew Jordan's airspace. Iraqi and Jordanian proxy terrorists in the service of the IRGC-QF are part of an anticipated "harsh" Iranian response in the coming days. The Hezbollah Brigades, a/k/a Kata'ib Hezbollah, of Iraq are promising the introduction of 12,000 Jordanians to attack into Israel. Relations between Israel and Jordan have soured considerably since October 7, 2023.

Finally, Iran is reported to have directed its overseas IRGC-QF operatives (terrorist sleeper cells) to strike Israel's diplomatic compounds in the Middle East, Europe and especially in the United States. Ayatollah Khamenei has promised a bloodbath and said that Iran holds the United States specifically responsible as Israel's military and financial enabler. This is where the Biden Administration's open border policy in the southwestern states could turn into a disaster in an election year. Any sleeper cell terrorists who wanted to get in have probably been in the US for many, many months. Some government agencies have been issuing warnings in this vein of late. 

Watching continues...

Global SITREP B4-18: Flood Warning

Image from Syrian media showing flames following an attack
on Iranian (IRGC) missle site near al-Kiswa, south of Damascus.

(UPDATE BELOW) 8 May 2018: With multiple sources indicating an imminent Iranian missile attack against Israel being launched from Syria, it was not difficult to project that Israel would launch one or more preemptive strikes. Accordngly, the first of what may become several strikes - depending on the IDF's post-strike Battle Damage Assessments (BDA) - occurred just before 4 PM EDT this afternoon at the large IRGC base at al-Kiswa. The IAF struck this same IRGC base on 2 December 2017.

The targets of todays strike were Iranian missiles and their launchers. The IAFs air-to-ground missiles clearly hit their targets as seen in the Syrian media image at the top. Once again the Israeli Air Force operated with impunity against military targets in Syria, presumably under protection of Russian air defense systems located at Khmeimim Air Base to the northwest. Below is a satellite reconnaissance image of the Al-Kiswa IRGC base taken in May of last year.

As expected the sound of crickets can be heard coming from official Israeli government and IDF spokespersons office. In Damascus the sound of massive explosions were heard; the reddish glow of fires in the night sky coming from the direction of the Al-Kiswa base located just 7.4 miles to the south were seen. Should Iranian missiles from any part of Syria or Lebanon be lauched in retaliation, Israel has previously promised a severe response will result, probably larger than the destruction of the Syrian air defense system a couple months ago.

UPDATE 10 May 2018: The Eschatology Today analysis of the full-scale war that erupted early this morning on the Golan border between Israel and Syria, when Iranian forces launched a rocket attack on IDF positions is as follows. 

This is ongoing proof that all can see that the Ezekiel 38/39 war was NOT next, and was NEVER going to be next, in the series of prophetic fulfillments that will lead to the start of Gabriel's 70th Week prophecy concerning Israel's future. The issue has been settled conclusively. 

What is occurring today reinforces the fact that God makes no mistakes; men do, and lots of them. Consider: the Prime Minister of Israel, Bibi Netanyahu, was in the capital city of prophetic Magog and standing next to President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin (Gog of Magog), during a celebratory parade just a handful of hours before this war was commenced in earnest by Persia, one of Magog's allies. PM Netanyahu almost certainly conveyed to Mr. Gog a promise of what would come down on his allies should they strike against Israel. Less than 24-hours later, that has become a promise kept.

The IAF is engaged this morning is massive air strikes on bases around Damascus which house and receive the weapons Iran is using. The damaged that has been done particularly to Iranian assets has been categorized as extremely severe. One might anticipate a no-fly zone being declared and enforced by the Israel, with the possibility of Iranian and Syrian cargo aircraft carrying war materiel contraband cargo being shot down by patrolling IAF aircraft. Further current battle damage assessments will be forthcoming.

Make no mistake, this war which is currently limited to within Syrian borders is certain to escalate; they key provisions within Isaiah 17 and Jeremiah 49:23-27 stand to be both the end game for those prophecies as well as the starting point for several others: Joshua 13:1-7, Psalm 83, Isaiah 11:12-14, Ezekiel 28:24-26. Therefore, we can reasonably expect Gaza and Arab unrest in Judea and Samaria to go well beyond any previous intifada.

UPDATE 11 MAY 2018: The Israel vs Iran war in Syria war was engaged for less than 24 hours ... so, for the time being, it's over.  It's over for now because according to the IDF's BDA there are no more worthwhile Iranian military targets to strike. Who shoots at a militarily insignificant pick-up truck with a $100,000 missile? Nobody. 

There are still IRGC-QF troops and proxy forces in Syria, but their foremost weapons were broken within within a very short period of time. That's a primary military objective - break the enemy's weapons so that he can no longer fight. A total of 70 IRGC-QF targets were engaged with 60 air-to-ground missiles from IAF strike aircraft, and 10 surface-to-surface artillery missiles. 70 weapons fired, 70 targets destroyed. Mission accomplished. 

It matters not one iota what the weapons used were by either side, this was a one-sided fight because the LORD God and the archangel Michael are standing watch over Israel, Daniel 12:1. If the bride of Christ needs a sign pointing to its soon harpazo to be with the Lord, it is the gadowl sar Michael standing watch over Israel. Why did state-of-the-art Iranian missiles fail? Michael is present. How did Israel's arrows strike each and every Iranian and Syrian target precisely to ensure iits total destruction. Michael is present.

Have the iranian Twelver clerics learned any lesson from this engagement? Will they now withdraw their disarmed forces out of Syria? No, they haven't, and no they won't. Their supreme arrogance, lofted chins and raised heads are swimming in the decepetion of a coming al-Mahdi figure if they can just create the right amount of chaos to hasten his arrival. Yeah, and Santa Claus and the Easter Bunny too. Iranian troops will remain in Syria, they will try to re-arm themselves, but it matters not, because Michael is present and the sure prophetic written Word of God will happen as it is written.  

Marana'tha!

Global SITREP B3-14: The Secret of Al-Kibar

The former Syrian-North Korean nuclear reactor at Al-Kibar, Syria

UPDATE 22 March 2018: Since some details for Operation Orchard have been published in Israeli media in the past couple of days, I thought it prudent to  bring this SITREP forward. No edits have been made to the original text below; it's left in its original form because it contains the truth about what occurred at al-Kibar, Syria 10 years and six months ago. 

Make note of this passage of time, and how the described Israeli technology is certain to have improved over past last decade. Note also the timing of this release of data. It is a message to the Islamic Republic of Iran, a not-so-veiled warning that they're next to endure what Syria endured as detailed below. Tick tock, tick tock.

12 January 2014: It's still a closely guarded state secret in Israel. The best military minds on the planet think they know the secret, but their thoughts are highly educated best guesses backed by chimera-like electromagnetic evidences that are probably really close to the truth, but not quite close enough to win the proverbial cigar. I believe this is the case because if they actually knew the secret, then faux allies like the Obama Administration would have let that black cat out of the bag by now. So, they don't know enough to leak it out and remain credible, and that is a good thing.

Then there are Israel's worst enemies, the world-class when it comes to the denial of reality, the Iranian twelvers. They believe they've discovered the secret of what happened during the overnight hours of 6/7 September 2007 at the under-construction plutonium reactor at Al-Kibar, Syria. Don't laugh, but the Iranian's actually think Israel used earth-penetrating nuclear artillery. This is due to the fact that the Iranians are in abject denial that the IAF had conducted an utterly stealthy strategic air strike on the site. And there's the rub, what the Iranians abjectly deny will come back to decimate them on their home turf and leave their Hezbollah allies in Lebanon all but defenseless should they be so unwise as to start another war with Israel.

So what is the secret of Al Kibar? What was it that ensured that the discussion of the more recent months was about the removal and destruction of Syrian chemical weapons and not Syrian nuclear weapons? What was it that Israel did not quite have to an operational status in the Hezbollah war in the summer of 2006, but was used to tremendous effect a year later and has kept IAF strike aircraft not only immune, but virtually invisible to enemy early warning electromagnetic detection? Have I just let the cat out of the bag? Maybe, but as a former electronic intelligence (ELINT) gatherer and analyst, I'm probably just surface skimming with what I'm strongly hinting at here. So, let's skim a little more and a little deeper.

Operation Orchard and the déjà vu of history repeating itself.

Let us recall the reports issued seven years ago and consider the pieces of the puzzle to the secret of Al-Kibar that have been put together since then.  Officially, the operation to strike the North Korean-built plutonium reactor at Al-Kibar is known as Operation Orchard. This reactor was a virtual duplicate of the North Korean reactor at Yongbyon. This operation should have a mention or two in former U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates' new book because Israel had provided the U.S. at the highest level with irrefutable intelligence on the reactor in May of 2007 that its Mossad agents had clandestinely collected from the home of a high level Syrian government official in Vienna, Austria. Ultimately, and after vigorous debate, the U.S. bailed out on a unilateral or even a joint military operation with Israel, mostly at the insistence of SECDEF Gates and SECSTATE Condoleezza Rice (the military genius-not who had prematurely brought an end to the 2006 Hezbollah war).

So, Israel was left to go it alone against Syria that was fully armed with missile-borne chemical weapons and in the process of arming it self with missile-borne nuclear weapons. Sound like a familiar situation? Indeed, history appears ready to repeat itself in a near déjà vu. So, in the ovenight hours of 6/7 September 2007 the IAF struck. The thing is nobody, neither friend or foe, saw them coming - or going.  The Syrians and their vaunted Russian-made air defense systems didn't so much as make a peep. NATO stations in nearby Turkey were also just as in the dark as Syria was. The US knew the attack was coming because Israel Prime Minister Ehud Olmert had very forcefully told US President George W. Bush on July 13, 2007 that Israel would execute the strike in Syria alone. (Again, Hello Ayatollah Khamenei, are you paying attention to history, or not?) And not even the United States with all of our high tech and electronic intelligence collecting capabilities had any advance warning of the strike going into execution mode.

Israel's Secular Holy of Holies: The Electromagnetic Black Hole

When Israel decides to go dark about something, they go a black hole kind of dark. And with Operation Orchard, Israel suddenly and without warning extended that black hole to cover the entire region of the Eastern Mediterranean. The entire Levant, from southern Turkey, all of Lebanon, and all of northern Syria, was consumed in an electromagnetic black hole which turned off power and it turned off ALL of the Syrian air defense grid. And as soon as the mission was complete everything just came back on as if nothing has happened. Perhaps some might recall the reports that radio and television stations suddenly went dark in Beirut as this operation was underway.

This was the was the world's first exposure to Israel's newest and most secret weapon, a chimera-like electromagnetic black hole maker which makes all other electronics in a pre-defined area cease to function except their own. And I believe it has system has been demonstrated on several more occasions over Syria but at a lesser capacity in Syria between January and May of 2013. Most everybody in Lebanon, including Hezbollah, heard the IAF F16-I Sufa's overheard, but nobody saw them electronically and nobody fired so much as a single shot at them in anger. That is such an over whelming battlefield capability and superiority that words fail to adequately define it. What's more we may not have seen this system in whatever full-power mode it may still have in reserve or have been refined to achieve in the nearly seven years that have passed.

Today, in addition to the Iranian denials that Operation Orchard actually took place, even Syria itself has remained silent about it like some puppy that has had its nose rubbed in its own business. Israel has a secret, overwhelming offensive and/or defense weapon system; it's been used to tremendous effect in destroying the Syrian nuclear program, but nobody wants to talk seriously about it or assess it as it deserves to be assessed. Perhaps that's just as well and it is better that Hezbollah, Syria and Iran not know the full extent of what will neuter their military forces when the time comes. I believe Jeremiah 49:34-39 and the other prophecies give us a tantalizing clue as to how this will all go down, but we'll have to see it to believe it.

Addendum: I have decided to include an excerpt from an article that corroborates 100% what I have long suspected about Operation Orchard.

"On Sept. 6, 2007, ten F-15I and F-16 jets attacked a nuclear facility being built in Syria. The success of that mission, dubbed “Operation Orchard“, was largely attributed to effectiveness of the Israeli Electronic Warfare platforms that supported the air strike and made the Syrian radars blind: some sources believe that Operation Orchard saw the baptism of fire of the Suter airborne network system against Syrian radar systems from some ELINT aircraft."

There's more from where this TheAviationist.com excerpt came from: Air strike on Damascus military complex shows Syrian Air Defense can do nothing against Israeli Electronic Warfare.

Read this link, and continue to scroll down to the "New Details..." section and you will come to this pair of statements:

"Some sources say that this attack was the first time the Suter airborne network system was used against Syrian radar systems from one of two ELINT aircraft. A modified version would more than likely be used against Iran if an attack were to take place, along with much more advanced tech. Including malware injected by F-16s, as someone speculates."

 Hopefully, this addendum has cleared up a few things for some folks.

Global SITREP E2-16: Red Lines Are Red Lines

Russian S-400 Triumf (NATO Name SA-21 Growler)  at Khmeimim Air Base, Syria

1 December 2016: Early yesterday morning Israel time a pair of IAF strikes occurred on both a Syrian military target near Damascus, and on the Damascus-Beirut Highway against a Hezbollah-bound weapons convoy. Most reports indicate these strikes were launched while the IAF's F-15I 'Ra'am' strike aircraft were in Lebanese air space. This is likely due to an existing and very explicit understanding between Russia and Israel; had the IAF aircraft launched the strikes while in Syrian airspace the Russian S-400 air defense system at Khmeimim Air Base would have been obliged to fire upon the Israeli aircraft. The long and short of it is that Israel's red-line on the transfer of advanced weaponry to Hezbollah in Lebanon from Syria remains intact, as does the Russian commitment to defend Bashar al-Assad's military forces from airstrikes launched in Syrian airspace.

IAF F-15I Ra'am strike aircraft

My only technical analysis note is that the image at the top clearly illustrates a pair of radar emitters (Kasta 2E radar on the left and PRV-13 altimeter on the right) seen between the vertically deployed missile TELARs are not normally known to be associated with a foreign deployed S-400 system. They indicate a possible reduced capability to detect targets between 20 and 65 miles distant at altitudes between 328 and 3,280 feet in altitude. These two systems may be only for point defense of the Khmeimim Air Base against low flying fixed or rotary wing aircraft and/or cruise missiles.

Details on these pre-dawn strikes strongly indicate that the main arsenal for the elite Syrian 4th Division in As-Saboura was struck simultaneously with the Hezbollah weapons convoy. One could very reasonably assume that the 4th Division arsenal was the source of the weapons transfer and the convoy the enroute weapons themselves.  As is normal the Israel Ministry of Defense will neither confirm or deny the strikes took place. Nevertheless, the Israeli-Russian understanding contains no illusions as to what Israel's very real red-lines are or the fact that direct military action will be immediate when those lines are crossed. Wednesday morning's IAF action proves this beyond question. 

It is also apparent to Eschatology Today that the lessons Israel gave the Syrian dictator in early 2013 have been ignored by his regime and Iranian/Hezbollah allies, who, not coincidentally, have been actually running things in Syria for quite some time now. This type of military action guarantees the greater conflagration Israel's ancient prophets tell us is soon to arrive (Isaiah 17, Jeremiah 49:23-27). These are appointments of the Lord's prophetic calendar. Of particular note right now are the very similar circumstances in Wednesday's strikes and those that occurred a mile or two away in Damascus' suburb Qudssaya in late January 2013 which came to mind immediately once As Saboura was located on the map. For reference details see the contents found in: The "Morton Salt Scenario" (When It Rains, It Pours) and Global SITREP A11-13: No 'Game Changer' for Hezbollah/IRGC .

Global SITREP E10-15: Israel Threatens "Crushing Blow" on Lebanese Hezbollah

Update 05 January 2016:  That didn't take long. Exactly one week after posting the three sentences highlighted below (in red), Hezbollah has begun its attack upon Israel as ordered by Ayatollah Khamenei for the reasons outlined in the opening paragraphs of this SITREP. The next steps will be to witness the response Israel has promised will be the result of such attacks. 

That this attack occurs just as Saudi Arabia and its Sunni Arab allies have entered into a state of virtual war with the Islamic Republic of Iran fully exposes the overall eschatological mindset of the Twelver regime in Tehran. In keeping with the Twelvers fervent brand of political messianism and desire to hasten that eschatology by all means available to them, the greater the chaos in the Middle East the better their chances of self-fulfilling their eschatological expectations. War with Israel has always been the key to this expectancy. 

What is occurring on Israel's border with Lebanon and the Golan is far more than mere retaliation for Israel's dispatching into eternity of the baby-murdering Islamic terrorist Samir Kuntar; this is an emergent battlefield which could quickly envelope the whole of the Northern Front, from the Mediterranean Sea to the Sea of Galilee with the eternal fate of the city of Damascus hanging in the balance.

28 December 2015: There is every indication this morning that Israel is prepared to strike "crushing blows" against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Whether those blows are preemptive or reactionary may depend a lot on exactly what intelligence Israel has collected regarding Hassan's Nasrallah's bombastic rhetorical threats against Israel. 

Preliminary airstrikes launched within the past 24 hours by the IAF appear to have occurred along the Lebanese-Syrian border; according to YNet the strikes were confirmed by Israel's Foreign Ministry Director-General Dore Gold to have preempted the transfer of SA-22 'Greyhound' mobile SAM systems (Pantsyr S1) from Syria to Hezbollah.  These strikes are likely both a stern warning and a dare to Hezbollah's Hassan Nasrallah: if Hezbollah is feeling froggy - go ahead and jump, but the result will be a dead frog hitting the ground impaled on an IDF bayonet. See Samuel 13 for the strong prophetic relevance here.

Hezbollah's forces have been decimated in Syrian combat, not unlike their Iranian officer corps, regular IRGC forces and proxy militias. The recent combat death of IRGC Major General Hossein Hamedani, among the hundreds of IRGC combat deaths suffered in the last two months, has resulted in Ayatollah Khamenei's appointment and return as overall IRGC commander in the region their most senior veteran flag officer, Major General Mohammad Jafar Assadi, a/k/a Abu Ahmad. Major General Assadi was the IRGC commander in Lebanon a decade ago so his appointment to return along with another thousand or so fresh IRGC troops may well be what lies behind Hassan Nasrallah's braggadocio regarding what he is sending to Israel in retribution of the recent assassination of the child murdering terrorist Samir Kuntar.

This also belies the seriousness with which Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei regards the overall situation in Syria where continued defeats will almost certainly provide cause to the Iranian Expediency Council's Assembly of Experts, led by Hashemi Rafsanjani, to call for the ousting of the Supreme Leader. After all, in Twelver-Hojjatieh ruled Iran there is the essential necessity for a Supreme Leader who effectively demonstrates the kind of "rightly guided" leadership for hastening the arrival of the al-Mahdi. Negotiating away Iranian nuclear weapons with the "Great Satan" is another sign of weakness in the velayat-e-fiqh this Ayatollah has come to personify, and is not something a Twelver truly worthy of his jihad can live with. Regime change in Iran is an integral theme of the Jeremiah 49:34-39 prophecy.

Therefore, attacking Israel in an attempt to instantly widen the war, and thus the al-Mahdi-hastening chaos that would ensue, appears to be what the current Ayatollah is counting on to maintain his position. A Syrian regional official from Quneitra, Ra'afat al-Bokar, confirmed this Iranian plan in telling the Fars News Agency the coming attacks will occur from Israel's Golan as well as from Syrian territory as well. This does not bode well for the longevity and well-being of Lebanon, Syria or Iran and is certainly in keeping with the multiple prophecies levied against them by the Lord's prophets of Israel.

The above map indicates the triangle-shaped area (left of the red-line) on the Golan frontier between Israel, Jordan and Syria where the Islamic State-aligned terrorists of the Liwa Shuhada al-Yarmouk (Yarmouk Martyrs Brigade) are known to have maintained predominant territorial control since 2013. An official IS announcement of a 'Wilayat Yarmouk' or 'Wilayat Deraa' may be only a matter of time.

Global SITREP E4-15: An Inherently Dangerous Situation in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea

Putin and his generals at the National Defense Control Center, Moscow

Update 17 December 2015: A bit of a history lesson is now necessary to understand why the current situation in Syria exists, and how it was as predictable as the fall of Iraq into the Iranian sphere, the  rise of the Islamic State: A lack of vision, leadership and willingness to apply the ultimate tool and force multiplier of foreign policy. To look at this in hindsight is like looking at a replay of a chess match in which one of the players is deliberately playing to lose.

We woke up yesterday to see that the US-led coalition supporting so-called moderate Sunni jihadist rebels against the Ba'athist regime of Bashar al-Assad had surrendered its very raison d'etre with the sudden announcement that the Obama Administration had abandoned its policy position that Bashar al-Assad must leave power.  How did this come about?

In the latter half of 2013 when Obama threatened to bomb Syria (i.e. start a war) because al-Assad had possession of and was using chemical WMD against the Sunni jihadist rebels. Obama stated he could launch this war against Bashar al-Assad's Syria without Congressional approval. It was a bluff. U.S. allies in Great Britain knew it from the get-go and so did the French. Absent any U.S. leadership this world-class ruse quickly fell on its face without so much as a whimper. 

The reason it did was the continuing effect of Obama's cut and run from the nearly won counter-terrorist war against the remnant Al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI). That cut and run retreat from victory was on full display. Within a very few months of the U.S. military retreat from Iraq the terrorists of AQI became the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) and launched a blitz of conquest gaining vast territories and resources in both countries.  

To the north the Obama bluff resulted in blatant Russian aggression and the rapid military conquest of Crimea from Ukraine, and the continuing to this day Russian war of aggression that is seeking to dismember southern Ukraine from the rest of the country. 

In all of this there was not one scintilla of American leadership or pushback that amounted to anything approaching serious military or economic consequences for either of these enemies. Sunni terrorists were free to create a terrorist state, the essential requirement of Sunni eschatological belief - a Caliphate. To crown this infamous achievement, Obama then put up the false front of negotiations with Iran and Russia and achieved his goal of making Iran a nuclear weapons power. He essentially gave the Sunni a Caliphate and the Iranian-Mahdi hastening twelvers the Bomb.

In the face of such fecklessness the Russians now made manifest what Barack Hussein Obama had bluffed at two years previously - they put their combat power on the ground in Syria, in the skies, and on the ocean approaches in the eastern Mediterranean Sea, and covered it with an anti-aircraft missile shield that has no bearing whatsoever in any conflict with the Islamic State because it does not have an air force or missile force. Moreover, the Russians also have a nuclear weapons umbrella with which to defend what they have achieved in the Levant.

Can you now see where this is all leading? Does the greater Middle East now not have the essential driver for and catalyst to bring about war on a scale never before visited upon these lands? Do you now see the enabler of flood-like Bible prophecy fulfillment that exists from southern Europe to northern Africa to the Eastern Mediterranean Sea to the Arabian Peninsula to the Indian Ocean? And there is tiny but nuclear-armed Israel standing in the midst of it all.

14 December 2015: What I've flagged as an inherently dangerous situation in the Middle East grows more ominous with each passing day. If these SITREPs have not made the situation perfectly clear up to this point, one can only repeat that the I&W are that Russian forces in Syria have less to do with fighting the Islamic State and more to do with confronting the US-led Coalition and NATO head-on. 

Islamic State has no air force in Syria or Iraq. They have flight training simulators in the heart of their Wilayat Tripolitania (i.e. Sirte, and western Libya) but those assets will be soon be scrap metal due to imminent airstrikes from French and British aircraft. So what drives Russia's deployment of additional top-of-the-line Su-34 'Fullback' bombers and Su-30 'Flanker-C' and the launching of Kalibr cruise missiles from a submerged Kilo-class submarine in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea; the deployment gift of of T-90MS 'Tagil' Main Battle Tanks to the Syrian Army 4th Division, and regular flights over Iraqi airspace of Tu-160 'Blackjack' enroute to targets in Syria? 

Russian T-90 MBT

All of this Putin muscle-flexing of last week is a show specifically intended for NATO eyes. This week These Russian forces have an additional tasking order. On the direct order of Putin to the National Defense Control Center, led by Russian Army Chief of Staff General Valery Gerasimov, in Moscow this past Friday a shoot to kill directive was issued. This order is a direct warning to NATO that any detected threat, even the slightest action deemed to be a provocative threat against Russian forces anywhere in the region, will be fired upon with extreme prejudice and without hesitation. This is no FRAGO from Moscow, this is a direct order that any perceived threat is to be destroyed immediately. While some will attribute this threat as being directed solely at Turkey, the fact is that since Turkey is a member of NATO and is covered by the collective defense provision of Article V of the NATO Charter, any attack by Russia on Turkey will be viewed as an attack upon all of the NATO allies. 

Try not to blink, or you might miss what happens next.


9 December 2015: We're now seeing in the media the first public reports of what I first predicted one month ago (9 November 2015) would occur (now highlighted in yellow below) regarding the potential coming from Valdimir Putin of RUSSIAN tactical nuclear weapons becoming involved in the war against the Islamic State.  Russia fired Kalibr 3N-14/T SLCM cruise missiles (NATO Name: SS-N-30A) against Islamic State from a submerged submarine (the Kilo-class diesel-electric submarine Rostov-on-Don) in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea. Along with this announcement from the Kremlin by Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, Putin added that the Kalibr can also be armed with nuclear warheads.This means, as if it is not obvious enough, that nuclear weapons are present within the Syrian war zone. It will be interesting to see if this becomes a banner head line for corporate global media in the next day or so, but I won't be holding my breath in anticipation of it.

29 November 2015: An unconfirmed report of extremely low credibility that has been picked up by some western media is claiming that Vladimir Putin will deploy 150,000 newly drafted Russian soldiers into Syria to destroy the Islamic State. The source for this claim is an Iranian website, Alalam.ir. Eschatology Today located this report at the VeteransToday website this morning.  

My assessment is that this report has extremely low credibility as written due to the fact that newly conscripted Russian soldiers are not formed into new fighting battalions and brigades. What occurs is that platoon and company-sized units of these draftees are inserted into existing units to replace an equal number of previously conscripted troops who are being discharged after their one-year term of service. Put another way, draftees fresh out of a three-month long tactical training boot camp would constitute a combat ineffective fighting force if they were summarily deposited into an ongoing war on a foreign land. Due to the accelerated nature of their boot camp these draftees have not trained to repair their fighting equipment in non-combat situations, much less in a fog of war, heat of battle environment. Thus a large number would probably be chewed up in pretty short order and unit combat effectiveness would nose dive. Therefore, the Iranian origin report is at best a rumor, and most likely intentional disinformation (i.e. they know our eschatology as well as we know theirs).

The current reality is that Russia's army is slowly being transformed into a professional fighting force, with its best units consisting of all-volunteer careerist troops. These are the combat brigades and types of troops that Russia would deploy if it were serious about annihilating Islamic State. Russian combat brigades would also have to enter the battlefield in concert and strategic coordination with a large number of American, Turkish, Jordanian, British, French and Iraqi combat brigades positioned in Turkey, Iraq and Jordan in order to bottle-up, cut-off and kill the Islamic State in a full-scale campaign across the deserts of Syria and Iraq. That is what a serious anti-Islamic State war would look like and the best chance of that happening would be an accord being reached at what is supposed to be a global climate summit of world leaders in Paris, France beginning tomorrow.

27 November 2015: The shoot-down of a Russian Su-24M bomber by a NATO member (Muslim Turkey) resulting in the killing of its pilot by Syrian jihadists (the navigator/weapons officer has been rescued), followed quickly by the shooting down of a Mi-8 SAR (Search and Rescue) helicopter and resultant killing of a Russian marine by U.S.-armed Muslim jihadists have to be linked together as a singular event in the mind of Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin. This event has to have been to impetus to cause the immediate change in the military dynamic and order of battle for Russian forces deployed in Syria and the Eastern Mediterranean Sea. I assess with high probability and high risk that the first tangible evidence of the change in the military dynamic and order of battle will come in the form of hostile fire coming from the Russian missile cruiser Moskva. This ship has essentially been placed on orders from Moscow to shoot first and ignore all questions later.

The second change in the dynamic and order of battle is far more ominous. It will likely be the introduction of tactical nuclear weapons being transferred from storage in Crimea to the Russian flotilla in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea and the Basel al-Assad Air Base (a/k/a Hmeimim Air Base) near Jableh from which the doomed Su-22M took of on its last combat sortie.  The introduction of Russian tactical nukes into this Middle Eastern war zone is something I put with much aforethought into the comment section of SITREP E2-15 on the morning of 9 November 2015. Understandably, no one touched that comment with a ten-foot pole. Yet here we are two weeks later and the introduction of those Russian tactical nukes into the Syrian battlefield is very much a part of the new dynamic and order of battle. 

Russia has announced the deployment to Syria of its S-400 Triumf (NATO: SA-21 Growler) SAM system. The S-400 Triumf is an upgraded version of the S-300PMU/3 SAM system. Details are in the image above. Awaiting Israel's and NATO's response to this deployment.

Speaking of Israel, there is a Russian-Israeli military understanding that has been published in Israeli media (JPost, etc.). As published this understanding holds that Israel Defense Forces will not shoot down Russian air force aircraft conducting strike missions in southern Syria (i.e. Dera'a) and which might accidentally enter Israeli airspace over the Golan region. According to a quoted IDF spokesperson, the lines separating IAF operational areas and Russian operational areas are clearly defined according to the understanding, and at least from the Israeli perspective, Russia is not seen as an enemy of Israel. Therefore the Russians are free to conduct their anti-terrorist airstrikes in Syria and Israel is free to conduct its anti-Hezbollah and anti-Iran airstrikes in Syria and Lebanon. In my opinion, this current understanding probably has the life expectancy of a soap bubble blown by a child's toy and will likely burst upon the first item of Russian airdropped munition which "accidentally" hits an Israeli position on the Golan. So, we'll wait and see as this war progresses.

A Couple of Other Odds and Ends:

According to a Washington Free Beacon staff report of 25 NOV15, the JCPOA nuclear agreement between the P5+1 nations and the Islamic Republic of Iran is not legally binding because President Obama did not require them to do so in order to bring the agreement into effect. In essence, and according to the Obama Administration via the U.S. State Department, the JCPOA is nothing more than a verbal agreement between President Obama and Ayatollah Khamenei. For those who have suggested that Jeremiah 49:34-39 has been preempted by the JCPOA nuclear agreement, you might want to reconsider your viewpoint - it is based upon nothing. 

The Atlantic published an interesting article on 24NOV15 titled "The War on ISIS: What's the Endgame?" The second sentence of the article caught my eye: 

"Today, the United States is contemplating a major expansion of its military campaign against ISIS. Driven partly by faith that the end times are imminent, ISIS has stepped up expeditionary attacks outside its caliphate, including the bombing of a Russian jet over Egypt, a suicide attack in Lebanon, and coordinated assaults in Paris."

If you follow that "end times" link embedded in the quote above it'll take you to another article from The Atlantic published in March 2015. That article makes clear that the Sunni eschatological theology underpinning the Islamic State is identical to that which we have known about the Twelver-Hojjatieh Shi'a clerics ruling in the Islamic Republic of Iran for the past 36 years and counting. The raison d'etre for both is that they believe they are "a harbinger of—and headline player in—the imminent end of the world." This is the bottom-line reason why Sunni Muslims have flocked from all over the world into Syria to join the Islamic State, receive military trained and return to their home countries, many disguised as "refugees" in order to execute attacks for the above stated purpose. The only difference between the Sunni jihadists and Shi'a jihadists and what keeps them at each others throats is that they each consider the other to be apostates of Islam. The Shi'a have their al-Mahdi-hastening Ayatollah Khamenei and his Twelver-Hojjatieh regime, and the Islamic State has their Caliph Ibrahim who is the al-Mahdi.

And speaking of Iran,  it has been confirmed that the Ayatollah's right-hand man and commanding officer for global terror operations via the IRGC Qods Force, 58-year old General Qassem Soleimani, was wounded in the ongoing battle southwest of Aleppo, Syria. Several reports have indicated that his wounding came as a result of a strike by a U.S.-made BGM-71E TOW anti-tank missile (as referenced in SITREP D10:15) and he was the principal of an immediate medical evacuation (Medevac) to a hospital in Tehran. This is just a step towards justice due to Soleimani for his role in the hundreds of American troops killed and wounded in Iraq and Afghanistan by weapons Soleimani deployed on those battlefields.

Thus far the name and rank of Soleimani's IRGC-QF replacement on the Syrian battlefield is as yet unknown. The BGM-71E TOW missile also destroyed the Russian Mi-8 helicopter that was forced to land after being hit by groundfire during its SAR mission to recover the pilot and navigator of the downed Russian Su-24 bomber. Given the speed of the TOW strike and destruction the Mi-8 the proximity of the opposing forces to each other was within a couple hundred yards and clearly line-of-sight.

So, as we can probably all discern with relative ease, the deception is rampant and it is global, and it is something that we have to deal with until the moment we are commanded by Jesus, with the trump and voice of an archangel to "Come up hither!" (1 Thessalonians 4:16 and Revelation 4:1)

Global SITREP E10-14: Preemptive Strikes in the Al-Dimashq of Syria

Contrails assessed to be those of IAF strike aircraft over southern Syria

Update 09 December 2014: There is considerable and mounting evidence that Bashar al-Assad's military forces continues its unrelenting battlefield use of chemical weapons against the array of jihadist forces attacking the regime on all sides. Most recently Syrian government aircraft prevented the military air base at Deir Ez-Zor from being overwhelmed by Islamic State forces during a battle that raged on 6 and 7 December by hitting the IS attackers repeatedly with chlorine gas. Elsewhere, particularly in northern Syria, yellow-colored barrel bombs containing chlorine gas were successfully deployed from regime helicopters to repel al-Nusra in an engagement. The IS jihadists are also using chemical weapons, particularly in the siege warfare that is occurring around Kobani, Syria near the Turkish border according to Kurdish military sources. The specific type of toxic gas has not yet been identified. Does anyone doubt that no matter which side prevails in the Syrian war, eventually they will use their chemical weapons against Israel. See: Isaiah 17.

08 December 2014: In the last quarter of 2013 and first half of 2014 the Bashar al-Assad regime of Syria was forced by a binding agreement between the United States and Russia to divest itself completely of what was considered to be the world's second largest chemical weapons program. By October of this year the lion's share of that WMD capability had been destroyed under international supervision, even though Syria has retained, according to Israeli intelligence, a residual chemical weapons capability amounting to just under ten tons of material. The important thing to note about the US-Russian agreement is that it included a clause whereby foreign airstrikes against the Al-Assad regime would not occur again, and if they did Russia reserved the right to militarily intervene against the attacker in defense of the Syrian Al-Assad regime.

This is the reason behind the current Russian government anger and threats of direct military intervention in the wake of the alleged Israel Air Force strike on Sunday. Obviously the Syrians and the Russians believed the agreement would make Syria immune to any further IAF preemptive strikes on Syrian soil, and until just over 48 hours ago this was the reality they believed existed. However, from the Israeli perspective the agreement was not binding upon Israel in the event of significant ongoing weapons transfers to IRGC/Hezbollah in Lebanon from Syrian soil. The Russians and Syrians see the IAF strike as being directly related to the months-long prospect of the Turkish-US agenda to establish a "no-fly zone" for Syrian military aircraft over northern Syria and thereby directly inhibit its ability to defend against incessant Islamic State attacks along the entire length of the Turkish-Syrian border region. 

Within the cauldron that is Syria today boil the highlighted volatile ingredients for not only a wider regional war, but a war of intercontinental proportions.

07 December 2014: In a repeat of strikes that occurred in May 2013, it is my assessment that the IAF conducted preemptive strikes on specific military targets in the al-Dimashq (Damascus countryside) region of Syria. These targets included the military side of Damascus International Airport and the al-Dimas Air Base. As occurred in May 2013 the targets were advanced military hardware deliveries to Syria intended for IRGC/Hezbollah units in Lebanon.

Without detailed imagery from the sties which were attacked any identification of the military hardware would be speculative at best. However, based upon the targets destroyed in the May 2013 preemptive strikes these targets were most likely a combination of mobile air defense systems similar to the SA-8 Gecko platform or the Russian-made S-300 air defense missiles as well as ballistic missiles such as the Iranian Fateh-110.

Unlike the May 2013 strikes when Syria bit its tongue for several days, this time the al-Assad regime has immediately accused Israel in the attacks. In one just released video taken by a Syrian observer from a safe distance large secondary detonations were occurring at the target site. Below is a screen capture of a secondary detonation from that video.

Secondary detonations

Secondary detonations tend to indicate that these weapons were fueled and/or were armed and had not just arrived at the target sites. Another possibility might be that these weapons were staged and prepared to fire against Islamic State targets elsewhere in Syria. In either eventuality Israel cannot stand down when such weaponry is being prepared for firing. This possibility might also explain the al-Assad regime's immediate reaction to the strikes. Also of note is the fact that once again, as in previous IAF preemptive strikes on Syrian soil, there was absolutely zero Syrian air defense reaction. The IAF can operate with impunity in Syrian skies.

Global SITREP C15-14: IDF Launches 'Operation Protective Edge' Against HAMAS in Gaza

8 July 2014:  DAY ONE OPE - Four pillars of smoke rise over Gaza as the IDF's Operation 'Protective Edge' commences against HAMAS and assorted jihadist groups in Gaza via Air Force and Naval gunfire support.  In a decidedly minimalist sense the Israeli media, led by the IDF spokesperson, have taken to referring to this operation as a "security situation."  Ignore that politically correct PR rubbish when you see it. This is war, pure and simple. 

Overnight the IAF struck at least 40 terrorist Command and Control (C2) sites in Gaza. HAMAS and Jihad Islami terrorists returned fire in the form of high volume mortar and missile fire barrages. Obviously the terrorists were unphased by the loss of the C2 sites and have a redundant system with which to launch coordinated counterfires against Israeli civilian targets all over southern Israel. Realizing this tactical fact PM Netanyahu's cabinet has authorized IDF armor and mechanized troops to execute their assigned orders and objectives. 

Precisely what those objectives are remains to be seen as this operation currently has all of the earmarks of a potential "Operation Pillar of Cloud Part II." What I mean by that is that this does not appear to be a planned existential war against HAMAS and the assorted terrorist groups in Gaza, but a limited action designed to quiet them down. If this turns out to be the case, then Iran has Israel precisely where they want them - a never ending war of attrition consuming Israeli treasure, combat power and escalating civilian casualties. Israel must demonstrate that never again literally means never again, and they must do it against HAMAS so that the rest of Islam understands the concept of military annihilation of the enemy in order to secure peace and quiet.

First Update: Indications are that the Netanyahu cabinet has made a determination to "go all the way" against the terrorist infestation of Gaza. In my experience "go all the way" means total war, and total war in Gaza means unrestrained war above, on the ground and below ground level. The IDF has received authorization from the political echelon to use any and all means at their disposal. Therein lies the IDF call-up of an additional 40,000 troops. Such a call up of reserves all but guarantees an all-out IDF invasion and conquest of Gaza. In this rapidly escalating war it seems to me that Abu Mazen (PA President Mahmoud Abbas) had better keep a very, very low profile lest a HAMAS or other Islamist assassin terminate his opposition to this Islamic jihad against Israel.

Second Update: Quoting Uzi Landau (of the Israel Beytenu party" statement to the Israeli paper Yedioth Aharonoth today: "If we enter Gaza it won't be a matter of a day or two, but rather with the goal of completing the job, so that there won't be a terror infrastructure."

Third Update: HAMAS is now firing longer range rockets at Tel Aviv. The Iron Dome anti-missile system intercepted and destroyed the first rocket shortly after a Code Red siren began wailing in Tel Aviv. The puff of smoke high in the center of the image above is the actual intercept and destruction of the HAMAS rocket over Tel Aviv.

Above is a map published today by Israel's Home Front Command. It is an instruction to Israel's population throughout the county on the amount of time they have to seek the safety of shelter once warnings are issued about incoming missiles.

Fourth Update: HAMAS is not content to lob missiles and mortars at Israel. A little over two hours ago a five-man squad of very heavily armed HAMAS terrorists apparently skimmed along the Mediterranean Sea coastline to come ashore with a plan to attack kibbutz Zikim located just north of the border. What the terrorists did not plan on was having their movement by sea detected by Israeli naval forces. The INS promptly alerted their ground pounding IDF counter-parts ashore. The terrorists then ran smack dab into a well-prepared unit of the IDFs Givati Brigade which ambushed them in a firefight on a well-prepared battlefield, quickly dispatching all three terrorists to their eternity. Naval and heliborne troops also rained fire upon the infiltrators. There are reports of other infiltrating terrorists in southern Israel. The IDF is hunting them down.

Central and even northern Israel, between Jerusalem, Holon and Tel Aviv and north to Binyamina has now come under a massive barrage of HAMAS rocket fire; Code Red sirens can be heard in several community's across this region, with several explosions being heard in Jerusalem. Iron Dome shot down one rocket over the city of Holon; a second rocket was also shot down over Tel Aviv this evening. Day two dead ahead. Remember Israel is +7 hours ahead of US EDT/+10 hours PDT.

Day Two OPE: HAMAS has continued to fire what may well be their longest-range but highly inaccurate rockets into the region just south of Haifa in northern Israel. These rockets have impacted into the Carmel and Zikhron Ya'akov areas. The IDF reports that just under 80 rockets were fired into Israel today prior to sunset.

As expected PA President Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) has begun to accuse Israel of "genocide" against "entire families of Palestinians in Gaza." So-called Arab-Israeli's in the Knesset (Israel's Parliament), not to be outdone by their boss, have taken to the floor of that assembly to denounce IDF troops as "murderers."  This kind of rhetoric is intended create a second front of unrestrained Islamic warfare against Israel in Judea and Samaria. It won't be long before street protests in Nazareth and other locales morph into firefights.

Final Update OPE Day Two: This may be a very unpopular final update for me to write. However, these words without question and most accurately will sum up the current situation. The State of Israel has brought this increasingly violent war upon itself because it has allowed HAMAS to not only survive, but to thrive and grow in the formerly conquered Gaza enclave unilaterally and unconditionally provided to it by the State of Israel in 2005. What nation in their right mind provides energy, fuel and sustenance to their existential enemies who then use those expensive resources to murder its citizens and attack its infrastructure?  What kind people allow their government to behave in such a suicidal manner during a war? I find myself utterly disgusted by the current government of the State of Israel, but I pray earnestly for its people being held hostage in their own homes by an incompetent foreign policy. Come to think of it, I feel the same way about the current American government and what it is doing in my homeland.

Perhaps if HAMAS, specifically their Ezzedine al-Qassam Brigade, succeeds in striking Israel's nuclear complex at Dimona the government of Israel will receive its long overdue wake up call. HAMAS has now made at least seven attempts to strike the Dimona nuclear complex with unguided rockets, and has failed every time.  Only three of the now seven M-75 (a/k/a the Iranian-made Fajr-5) rockets fired at dimona actually had a trajectory which the Iron Dome system deemed to be a genuine threat and that missile was promptly intercepted and destroyed.

 
OPE Day Three:  There is no way Israel can end the rain of missiles that HAMAS is firing upon virtually all of Israel without the introduction of some very heavy IDF mechanized boots on the ground. Israel's navy and air force are just as incapable of completely stopping this type of warfare as the US was against Saddam Hussein's missiles at the start of OIF eleven years ago. I firmly believe that IDF infantry will have to become experts in tunnel rat warfare, and they will have to employ state-of-the-art ground penetrating radar in order to locate all of the hidden stores of war materiel within the maze that exists throughout Gaza. This will be a very dirty and bloody affair to be sure, especially seeing how HAMAS and the other terrorist groups have taken to the widespread use of human shields to ward of Israel air strikes on high value targets. The IDF's use of ground penetrating "bunker busters" will also likely become a key feature in this war.

First Update OPE Day Three: The government of Israel has issued a warning order to all 100,000 residents of Gaza city suburbs Beit Lahia, Beit Hanoun, and the Khan Younis suburbs of Abasan al-Kabera and Abasan al-Saghira to relocate to areas along the coastline as the minimum effort necessary to avoid the impending ground combat phase of OPE. This warning order indicates that the IDF intends to invade and gain control of all parts of Gaza with the exception of Rafah on the Egyptian border.

The military element of Fatah has become a combatant in the Islamist rocket assault upon Israel, which includes HAMAS, Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), the Al-Quds Mujaedeen Shura Council (AQMSC) and the Islamic State (formerly known as ISIS). The AQMSC and Islamic State are now virtually the same organization since the AQMSC pledged allegiance to ISIS this past spring. With this grouping are several more AQ-aligned salafist terror groups who are active in the Sinai.