Saturday, July 23, 2016

Global SITREP C5-16: Failed Military Coup d'Etat in Turkey

Turkish Armed Forces Take to the Streets

FINAL UPDATE 23 July 2016: This will be the final update for SITREP C5:16, and its is literally laced thick with linked Open Source INTelligence (OSINT) to buttress its content. 

Why the Coup d'Etat in Turkey Failed

New information has come to light which has been confirmed by Turkish officials and senior military officers. This information details how Hakan Fidan, the director of Turkey's National Intelligence Organization, officially the Millî İstihbarat Teşkilatı (a/k/a MIT) received a 'heads up' about a possible coup d'etat on the afternoon prior to the planned coup commencement (Thursday, 14 July). 

Immediately after sunset on the 14th the MIT deployed it's Russian-made DShK 12.7mm anti-aircraft weaponry to the roof of the MIT headquarters building. No one outside of the MIT was aware that it possessed this kind of combat capability. When coup commando's made their attempt at a helicopter assault on the building they were stopped cold and the assault failed completely.

There are significant indications (The Wall Street Journal, July 20,2016) that the 'heads up' came from the U.S. CIA whose current director, John Brennan, covertly converted to the Wahhabist sect within Sunni Islam while he was CIA chief of station in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. The delayed response by the Obama Administration was likely to due a desire to remain as distant as possible from the event - many US servicemen are stationed on two Turkish military installations (Izmir and Incirlik) where the commanding officers were among the senior coup leadership.

Actions taken by Hakan Fidan resulted in the Turkish coup leadership being forced to advance the extremely well-planned execution of the coup by a full six hours. This advancement of the timeline doomed the coup even before it began. The principle problem was that key elements of the coup did not have the necessary C2 (Command and Control) communication capabilities to receive the FRAGO (FRAGmentary Order) notifying the various elements of the virtual last-minute change to the execution of the coup in its various phases.

Many are those who saw initial reports of the coup in progress and noted how it appeared to be run by an incompetent leadership. No, the leadership was not incompetent; a critical mass of the various elements of the coup were executing their assigned phases of the operation based upon the timing meticulously detailed in the original coup d'etat plan. 

Also, one of the most senior officers of the coup leadership, Brigadier General Semih Terzi, was assassinated by a junior officer as he personally led the attempt to assume command of Turkish Special Forces Headquarters. This opening salvo of the coup, which occurred at the new advanced  schedule, quickly demoralized other elements of the coup and dealt an additional fatal blow to the coup's C2. As with many military operations throughout history, meticulous planning rarely survives first contact with the enemy.

The coup plotters did not plan to kill Erdogan while he was vacationing at the resort town of Marmaris. Two of the most elite groups of Turkish Air Force commandos were assigned to take Erdogan captive at his hotel. However, when they arrived at his hotel at 0300 in the morning Erdogan, having been forewarned of the coup, was nowhere to be found. It is also known that these elite commandos were not taken captive as the coup failed, but remain at-large giving rise to fears within the Erdogan regime of forthcoming targeted assassinations.

Most of the loyal government and media offices were also alerted to the coup. One of those was Turksat, a satellite communications and internet provider. The failure to take control of Turksat and shut it down enabled Erdogan to issue his alert via the FaceTime app and to appear on television to order his his loyalists out onto the streets of Istanbul, Izmir and Ankara. The rest is now history.

One final item. How is it that no one, and I mean no one, has asked the most important question begging for an answer. How is it that Turkey's senior office corps seeking a return to a democratic secular government for the country would align themselves with an Islamist cleric (Fethullah Gulen)?  The answer is they didn't and the claim by the Erdogan regime that they did so is as bogus as the day is long.

15 July 2016: Events are occurring swiftly, and it is nearly impossible to keep pace with them. The key fact is that the very nature of an in-progress military coup d'etat is such that making a valid assessment on the situation in Turkey is virtually impossible as of 8 PM EST this evening.

What is being received are conflicting reports about the coup and its alleged successes in locations around the country, primarily the metropolitan areas of Istanbul and Ankara, and many counter-reports denying those successes. What is for certain is that one or more elements of the Turkish armed forces has launched a coup against the Islamist government led president Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

There are at this time continuing engagements between the coup forces and civilians and those military forces which remain loyal to Erdogan's government. 

Update 16 July 2016: While the coup appears to have not succeeded, it remains to early to tell fact from fiction. There are reliable reports that approximately 1500 troops taking part in the coup have surrendered to government forces. Among them are the coup's apparent military leadership which includes a handful of generals and a few dozen colonels.

In a surprising twist a legal spokesperson for the Turkish government is saying that an imam living in exile in Saylorsburg, Pennsylvania is the overall spiritual leader of the coup forces. The 74-year old Islamic cleric, Fethullah Gulen, is the namesake of the Gulen Movement and the "Gulenists" within it, and the Turkish daily Zaman is closely linked to his movement. 

The Erdogan government seized control of Zaman and the also associated Herkul.org website in March of this year. Both the Zaman daily and Herkul.org served as media outlets for the Gulen Movement. It's not a far stretch to assess that this kind of government repression of opposition voices in Turkey might have been a catalyst for the military-led coup d'etat.

The surprising twist comes in a very recent (13JUL16) pre-coup d'etat news report by The Daily Caller that Hillary and Bill Clinton are also closely associated with Fathullah Gulen and his movement. A trove of discovery documents filed with the U.S. Congress detail the ties between the Clinton Foundation and Fethullah Gulen.  The Gulen organization and many of its adherents have also donated heavily to the Hillary Clinton presidential campaign.

As if Hillary didn't have enough troubles these days. Then again, wherever there is smoke coming from within the Clinton Foundation there's a small fire producing that smoke.

Update 17 July 2016: The title for this SITREP has been changed to reflect the reality of the situation, the Turkish military coup d'etat against the Erdogan government has failed. However, significant fallout will continue for an indefinite period of time.

By the numbers being reported 265 Turks lost their lives. Just over 100 of that number were rebelling Turkish soldiers. One of those soldiers was summarily beheaded by a mob of pro-Erdogan Islamist civilians on the Bosporus Bridge. To this add in 1,440 injured on both sides of the coup.  The number of rebel soldiers arrested by the government was 2,840 at last count; there will be more and all of them likely face a penalty of death by execution. Many of the captured rebel soldiers have expressed their belief that they were taking part in a nation-wide exercise. Eight Turkish soldiers escaped to Greece in a helicopter and have requested asylum there.

In what may be the most significant fallout, and one so far unrelated to the military's coup attempt, the totalitarian nature of the Erdogan Islamist regime has been placed in full view. Prior to the coup being crushed an AKP (the ruling Justice and Development Party) legal organ of the regime issued arrest warrants for 188 members of the country's independent supreme court system, plus 2,750 lower bench judges from across the country. 

This action paves the way for the introduction of a fully Sharia-compliant court system in Turkey as the independent secular court system has now been decimated. The literal Islamist meaning of "Justice and Development" has been revealed. Remember, Turkey is a member of NATO and this kind of authoritarianism is not compatible with the system of values within the alliance. 

As mentioned above, the presence in the U.S. of exiled cleric Fethullah Gulen has led Erdogan to blame the U.S. directly for the failed attempt to overthrow his regime. The entire Gulen global organization is being referred to by the regime as a "parallel structure." Gulen's immediate extradition from the U.S. is now Erdogan's number one "must" demand upon the Obama Administration, and it has placed the U.S.-Turkish strategic partnership in a condition of high risk.

Given the totalitarian nature of the Erdogan regime now on full display is there any wonder that elements within the Turkish armed forces, who have always been dedicated to the preservation of Turkey as the secular republic envisioned and founded by Kemal Ataturk, have once more rebelled?  

I  believe the current assessment needs to be that Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Islamist AKP allies bear full responsibility for the  acute political destabilization that has now befallen the Turkish republic and polarized its society. The fallout in Turkey will continue for the foreseeable future with further upheaval an inevitability.

UPDATE 20 July 2016: The seriousness of the fallout at this point has eclipsed all expectations. Erdogan's totalitarianism has thus far resulted in the arrests and detentions of over 50,000 Turkish civilians plus approximately 20,000 military and police officers. On top of this Erdogan ordered the cut-off of all electrical power and the secure sealing of the Incirlik Air Base. This action essentially takes approximately 1,500 American pilots and support troops as prisoners along with approximately 50 American tactical nuclear weapons. 

There is now no doubt that Erdogan and his fellow AKP Islamists hold the United States culpable as supporters of the coup d'etat, with a leading government newspaper editor claiming that the U.S. planned the coup and attempted to assassinate Erdogan. A review of American news organizations and their headlines and reports from yesterday afternoon through 0600 this morning resulted no mention whatsoever of these critical developments. Silent are FoxNews, the DrudgeReport,  ABC News, NBC News, CBS News and several others. It would seem that the Obama Administration's control over mainstream US media is as absolute as Erdogan's control over Turkey, but you already knew that.

31 comments:

hartdawg said...

"As the situation continues to resolve"? Based on what we know prophetically about turkey, and it's not being involved with Gog/ magog, do you think that this situation will resolve quickly, I'm not sure what to make of this prophetically except Matthew 24 "ethnic group against ethnic group"?

Sean Osborne said...

Hartdawg,
It could be that Turkey's chickens are coming home to roost, meaning that its near term could be a repeat of what is going on in Syria since 2010. Regime change... maybe. It's Islamic and Islam's days are numbered.

hartdawg said...

That's what I'm thinking, I know that some so called scholars are going to say that this will bring in the antichrist and he will come out of turkey, but you and I both know that's nonsense. I think the senerio you just mentioned is more likely.

Anonymous said...

Sean,
My first venture into the blog. I've been streaming the Rocky Mountain Prophecy conference this weekend and just watched Joel Richardson's presentation (it seemed that Tom Horn had set him straight on the Islamic Antichrist) and he went off script to discuss the Turkish coup attempt. He has spent some time in Turkey over the past 3 years. One theory he had was that it was a planned false flag to get Erdogan in control of the last secular element of the Turkish government. He pointed out that there were things already in place in reaction to the coup to douse it immediately.

Chuck B.

Sean Osborne said...

Chuck,

Over several years now many of us have set "Joel" straight on the errors in his theory, but he's ignored one and all and basically doubled-down with a new book at every opportunity. it's not worth the effort any more IMHO to deal with the issue - it will self-resolve soon enough.

Gulen and Erdogan were once allies, basically because both are Islamists. But even Islamists are politically ambitious, so Gulen fled to the US out of fear for what Erdogan could do to him.

Sean Osborne said...

Hartdawg,
Got more info, will post it shortly.

jmoll106 said...

Germany is reporting that Turkey's Incirlik air force base is in lockdown and power has been cut. Do we still store nukes there as a forward operating point. I know we still have aircraft and personnel.

Sean Osborne said...

Jmoll106,
Yes, Incirlik lockdown. Nukes there under joint control.

Sean Osborne said...

Turkish commander of Incirlik Air Base arrested. Total of 6,000 arrested thus far in coup aftermath.

jmoll106 said...

Turkey want the cleric Fethullah Gulen turned over to them. They gave the US an ultimatum but that could be alot of hot air with the money they get from us.

Sean Osborne said...

As mentioned in the SITREP, Gulen's extradition is a "must" for Erdogan and his regime. They expect Obama to cave, and he probably will, just as he gave up on Iraq, Syria, Egypt, Libya and Afghanistan. What Muslim Brothers want, Obama gives them. Gulen is expendable.

Sean Osborne said...

Not related to Turkey situation.

On 11 July Iran attempted for the fourth time to launch a North Korean BM-25 Musudan nuclear-capable ballistic missile. The missile blew up shortly after launch.

I believe Jeremiah 49:34-39 is coming to fulfillment.

Miriam said...

I watched parts of Pastor Farag's prophecy update last night (kept getting interrupted by one of my sons). But I did hear him mention that he thinks the key to what is going on in Turkey is contained in the 1st 9 books of Chronicles, which they are set to study this coming Thursday. Those books contain genealogies. It will be interesting to see what his thoughts are.

Lance M said...

Sean,

In your opinion, what are the chances of a failed launch resulting in a nuclear detonation that devastates the Iranian missile program to the point of being non-existent?

Lance

Sean Osborne said...

Lance,

Zero chance. The Iranians wouldn't dare put a live warhead on an unproven ballistic platform such as the BM-25 Musudan. The BM-25 is a failed reverse-engineering effort of the old Soviet R-27 sub-launched rocket. None of the BM-25s built to date by North Korea or Iran have ever successfully flown. The North Korean's only present mock-ups of the BM-25 during parades on Pyongyang's boulevards.

Sean Osborne said...

Miriam,

I would be interested in what that study comes up with.

I've previously done my own research on the tribes/genealogies of Asia Minor after the Flood with emphasis on Ezekiel 38/39.

Genesis 10 was a starting point, but 1 Chronicles 1:5-6 points to the sons of Japheth, and his first-born son Gomer who begat Togarmah.

The Gog who is the son of Reuben in 1 Chronicles 5:4 is an Israelite, and therefore has no connection to the prophecy of Ezekiel 38/39. Isaiah 66:14-16 is another place to study as well.

Anyway, most of those ancient tribal families of Ezekiel 38/39 moved northwards from the Caucasus Mountains well prior to the 6th century of Ezekiel's lifetime, and the Turks (Seljuk Turks) did not arrive in Asia Minor until circa 950-1000 AD.

So where are the descendant people Ezekiel 38/39 refers to living today?

I believe they are known today as the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), the Union State (Russian Federation and Belarus) and the CSTO.

Sean Osborne said...

It's beginning to look like the last paragraph was prescient - destabilization of Turkey is massive, and the regime's crackdown has extended far beyond those who staged the coup. Freedom of the press via all media is now virtually non-existent in Turkey. All facets of Turkish society are now being affected by the Islamic totalitarianism being imposed by the Erdogan-AKP regime.

The Mirror.co.uk reported 30 minutes ago that a massive explosion rocked the capital Ankara, a large high-rise is seen to be on-fire. This one is just developing...

jmoll106 said...

Wow, This should keep Turkey from becoming a member of the EU for a while.If the U.S is forced to leave, it will push them toward Russia.

jmoll106 said...

I don't know all the what fors on cleric Fethullah Gulen but the more I read about him, Turkey can have him.

Rhonda said...

Hey Sean,
I'm following your reports. But what does it all mean? How does this fit
prophetically? Do you have any idea if "0" and his administration is behind the
failed coup or did Erdogan stage it?

Sean Osborne said...

jmoll,

This will almost certainly have far-reaching implications for Turkey and its membership in NATO...

As for Fethullah Gulen (who is an Islamist no different than Erdogan is), I think he should be immediately deported out of the US, and not necessarily to Turkey.


Rhonda,

I am working on a new SITREP that I hope will answer your questions in full and perhaps even go beyond in an assessment of what may lie dead ahead. The new SITREP should be ready early this evening.

jmoll106 said...

Debka is reporting US airmen and there families are still locked down at Incirlik Airbase. I can't find any other news source to see if this is true.? My prayers are for them!

Sean Osborne said...

Debka is correct... the power to the base was cut by the regime at the same time as the coup was launched. Today is the 5th day of power to the base being cut without official explanation forthcoming from regime authorities. US forces are using emergency generators for power. The fuel issue will eventually become critical, and we may have to abandon the base in favor of a base in Greek Cyprus or even Crete... and take our nukes with us.

Also, CNN and NBC have finally posted reports on the Incirlik situation. Apparently the briefing news organizations got yesterday was embargoed from publication.

jmoll106 said...

Thanks for the info.

jmoll106 said...

I believe the generators can probably run on JP-8 which fuels their aircraft which should buy them some time.

Sean Osborne said...

Don't thank me yet... there's a LOT more coming in the next directly related SITREP.

jmoll106 said...

I'll be praying you get more prescient as the day approaches. Christ's followers gain strength from the Word of God and the Revelation of Jesus Christ and all it entails.

Sean Osborne said...

Turkey woke up this morning to the news that Erdogan has declared a 3 month 'state of emergency.' This declaration gives Erdogan powers far beyond what Turkish constitutional law normally provides for, and for all intents and purposes completely sidesteps the country's Constitutional Court system, most of whose members were arrested by Erdogan's regime after the coup. The declaration ultimately imposes unrestrained martial law for the whole of Turkey and its people, and makes Erdogan a de facto dictator.


jmoll106 said...

It looks like mass excecutions are coming with Turkey withdrawing from the European Court of Human Rights. I can't see our troops staying if they do.

Miriam said...

Sean, I wanted to circle back on this. I watched Pastor Farag's bible study that covered the beginning of Second Chronicles with the genealogies, but I would need to listen to it again (possibly more than once) to begin to really absorb it because it covered so much ground. However, I listened to his regular prophecy update tonight and I found that a little easier to follow. Much of tonight's message focused on Turkey and the upcoming conflict. My impression was that his views are consistent with yours.

Anonymous said...

Sean, the blog has been must-reading as of late. So here's something to tack onto this post about the failed coup in Turkey. Turkey's president has blamed the failed coup on an obscure Islamic scholar living in Pennsylvania, Fethullah Gulen. Gulen was given space in today's (July 25) New York Times to refute claims from President Erdogan. His rebuttal is highly interesting reading. Would you care to share your thoughts?

- Brian from Florida

Fethullah Gulen: I Condemn All Threats to Turkey's Democracy
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/26/opinion/fethullah-gulen-i-condemn-all-threats-to-turkeys-democracy.html?_r=0