Global SITREP C10-18: The Final Battles for Syria - A Regional War

Screenshot: Syrian Mi-8 'Hip' dropping a barrel bomb on Al-Lataminah town.

UPDATE 10 September 2018: The Wall Street Journal, The Times of Israel and Market Watch are all reporting the same news this morning: Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has ignored the US, UK and French warnings and has approved the use of WMD (Chlorine Gas) in offensive operations against Idlib Governorate. Also, Germany is now saying that it will likely join the Western Allies in punitive strikes against the Syrian regime. A third round of punitive strikes by the Western Allies will be a lot more severe than the last.

9 September 2018: The assault upon Idlib has been in full execution since yesterday morning. It began, as all previous pro-regime forces invasions of rebel held towns and cities have begun, with a sustained air assault on hospitals and humanitarian rescue facilities. Struck yesterday were an underground hospital in Hass, Idlib Governorate and the town of Al-Lataminah 20km to the south. 

The screenshot above is from a video recorded by the civilian-run Hala System (a/k/a Sentry Advance Warning System) taken during rebel surrveillance of the barrelbombing attack (object below the chopper) of al-Lataminah town. The Hala System provides early warning the moment any regime or its allies aircraft departs their respective airfields. Deliberately attacking hospitals and rescue centers (i.e. local ambulance and pararescue teams) is a war crime. Regime chemical weapons have long been delivered on civilian targets in Syria by Mi-8 choppers dropping such improvised barrel bombs.

In light of these attacks the U.S. Pentagon has prepared several potential military response options. These existence of these options was made public yesterday by Chairman-Joint Chiefs of Staff General Joseph Dunford. The UMSC has also deploYed OVER 100 additional troops to the CJTF-OIR base at At-Tanf. The Marine landed and immediately engaged in a live fire demonstration designed to give Russian, Syrian and Iranian forces a chance to reconsider striking the At-Tanf base or moving within its extended 35-mile forward perimeter.  The firepower available to CJTF-OIR far exceeds anything the combined Russian, Syrian and Iranian forces have available on land, sea or air.

Map of northwestern Syria 07SEP18

7 September 2018:  The map above shows the current situation in (south to north) Hama, Idlib and Aleppo governorates in northwestern Syria, and who controls what territory. Within Idlib there are a reported 2.9 million civilians, nearly 1 million of which are young children. 

There are also two new and highly critical developments to report in this update: 

1.) The US, UK and France have seen strong indications that the Syrian government has prepared chemical WMD for use in the coming battle. These allies continue to urgently warn the regime of Bashar al-Assad of a switft and appropriate military response if chemical weapons are used in battle.

2.) The Russians have warned the United States directly on two occasions in the past week that the U.S. CJTF-OIR base at At Tanf could be attacked by Russian forces due to the presence of "insurgent forces" there. Since there are no known Russian ground combat units or Wagner Group mercenaries in the area of At Tanf, such an attack would have to be made against the U.S. base using Kalibr cruise missiles launched by Russian naval combatant ships off the Syrian coast.

Lines of Control in Syria on 3 September 2018

5 September 2018: There are last ditch diplomatic carrot and stick entreaties to the al-Assad government in Damascus today, and they're being put forward under a nothing ventured/nothing gained mindset. Almost everyone involved actually believes the die has been cast for continued war and a humanitarian catastrophe in Idlib. 

The massive Russian investment of rubles in the form of a large military deployment into and off the coast of Syria would be for naught should the Idlib assault be called off. That object in motion will tend to stay in motion. The alleged Russian, Iranian and Turkish 'summit' scheduled for tomorrow in Tehran stands as a very high probability of becoming a grand disappontment for the Turkish government which hopes against hope for the Idlib operation to be called off. Turkey very much stands against the Russian, Iranian and Syrian plan of conquest of the Idlib Governorate. The Turks want a far more precise operation to rid the governorate of select jihadists, much as they accomplished in Afrin earlier this summer. The Russians and Iranians have already rubber-stamped and green-lighted the full-scale operation. That means an ethnic cleansing of Syrian and Turkmen Sunni's from Idlib is certain to inflame the Turkish government which are Sunni Turkmen themselves. Make no mistake, at this point Turkey is no military ally of Syria, Russia or Shi'a Iran. Turkey could well intervene against the Iranian and Syria ground forces in the days to come.

And then, as in Item 4 below, there is Israel. The IAF struck Iranian targets in the Hama and Tartus Governorates (see image above). Again, the IAF strike aircraft were flying high over Lebanon, and they had to have been detected by the Russian S-400 anti-air site just a few miles northwest from the targets in Masyaf that were struck. There isn't a single reliable report of anti-air fire going up against the Israeli jets - not Russian, not Syrian, not Iranian. The IAF struck with impunity. This strike reaffirms that Israel is actively at war against anything belonging to the Iranian military forces in Syria. This is a wild card in the ongoing war in Syria. Russia apparently has no qualms with Israel obliterating Iranian military hardware and facilities in Syria, even right under their own noses.

Even though covered multiple times this year in various SITREPs, a reminder of the prophetic picture would be in order at this point.

"Hamath and Arpad are shamed,
For they have heard bad news.
They are fainthearted;
There is trouble on the sea;
It cannot be quiet." - Jeremiah 49:23

"Woe to the multitude of many people
Who make a noise like the roar of the seas,
And to the rushing of nations
That make a rushing of mighty waters!
The nations will rush like the rushing of many waters;
But God will rebuke them and they will flee far away,
And be chased like the chaff of the mountains before the wind,
Like a rolling thing before the whirlwind." - Isaiah 17:12-13

This impending battle is located in northwestern Syria, between the same two ancient locations named by Jeremiah. There are gathered in the sea of the Syrian coast an array of warships from many nations involved in the conflict, and which stand ready to engage in combat. The literal word here is, well, very literal; it says what it says and it is unique in all of recorded history up to this point. The culmination found in both Jeremiah's and Isaiah's prophecies here is the destruction of Damascus, and of the nation we know as Syria.


4 September 2018: It appears the Idlib offensive has begun. Russian combat aircraft began the operation with airstrikes within the past two hours.  

3 September 2018: The final battles for Syria are a regional war already in-progress, albeit at a slow or no boil from time to time. The SITREP at present goes something like this: 

1.) There are  behind the scenes diplomatic efforts ongoing that have, more or less, postponed the Idlib (northwestern Syria) offensive operations. By the same token there are major powers maneuverings or exercises the Mediterranean Sea which are probably preludes to combat operations.

2.) Within Idlib there are multiple anti-regime forces, each within its own cantonment of influence or control. There are AQ terrorists, Free Syrian forces, Turkomen militias, Kurdish militias, and Turkish Army outposts as well. There are anti-regime forces from all over Syria which have come to Idlib via free passage; Idlib is a dumping ground of opposition forces from the rest of the country. They are not all currently presenting a united front, but will likely act as such when the hammer drops.

3.) The national interests of the Russian Federation (and its allies) and the United States (and its allies) are in conflict, although at present there are norms of communication which have thus far prevented hostile fire. Should Syrian forces use WMD in Idlib the spectre of a Russia-America confrontation in this arena is very real.

4.) And then there is Israel and the United States confrontation with Iran in Syria (and soon possibly in Iraq). This warfront has been smouldering of late with potential sparks (large air strikes) at al-Mazzeh Air Base near Damascus and at At-Tanf in southeastern Syria within the past 24 hours failing to ignite into a more widespread conflict. In both airstrikes it was Iranian proxy forces which were devastated, the former a warehouse, the latter an on-the-move military convoy. Israel has also revealed that it will strike Iranian targets in Syria, or in Iraq, as they present themselves.