Thursday, October 9, 2014

Global SITREP D7:14: PM Netanyahu's U.N. General Assembly Speech

 
UPDATE 09 October 2014: As referenced in the comments section of this SITREP, comparative satellite reconnaissance imagery (seen above) has been released by ISRAELDEFENSE.com (Damage at the Military Research Complex at Parchin) which puts the lie to statements made by the Islamic Republic of Iran talking heads who immediately denied that an explosion occurred at the Parchin nuclear weapons complex.  IsraelDefense imagery analyst Ronen Solomon characterized the satellite imagery as indicative of "damage consistent with an attack against bunkers in a central locality within the military research complex at the Parchin military compound."  

 
Exploding Bridge Wire (EBW) nuclear weapon initiator of the type Iran has been developing at the Parchin nuclear complex.

The right side of the image shows part of the Parchin complex on August 12, 2014. Everything intact. The left side of the image shows the same part of the Parchin complex on October 7, 2014. Look at these side-by-side images through a hand-held magnifying glass. Notice the direction of the building and tree shadows. Both images were acquired at nearly the same time of day nearly two months apart. Notice the red circled areas on the left side. In two distinct places, at most a hundred yards or so distant from each other, hundreds of trees and several buildings have been evaporated leaving nothing but scorched earth. Not even stumps of the trees that had been here remain. Other buildings have burned roofs and other trees have been completely defoliated.  There are six or seven responding vehicles in the center of the primary area of complete destruction, which is inclusive of nearly six entire blocks of what had been buildings and trees. Something very powerful, like a conventional initiator for a nuclear device, detonated unexpectedly and wiped this part of the Parchin complex slick. These pictures don't lie, and there's a couple thousand more words waiting to be discovered in the above image.

 

 02 October 2014: The strongest indicator (and possibly another warning) that Bibi Netanyahu's speech at the UNGA last week was more than mere rhetoric can be seen in the fact that the State Department spokeswoman, Jen Psaki, has made it very clear that both the White House and the State Department flat-out rejected the entire content of PM Bibi Netanyahu's speech. Let me repeat that: both the White House and the U.S. Department of State flat-out rejected and do not hold any common ground with what Israel's Prime Minister had to say before the UN General Assembly last week.

At this point all intellectually honest folks who have not yet read the linked transcript of Netanyahu's speech might want to do so in order to come up to speed with the schism that exists between Israel and the United States regarding the truly existential threats that exist in the Middle East and how each is willing, or not willing, to address those threats.. One might want to recalibrate and reconsider how this situation is to be assessed in full.

And one doesn't have to take my word for any of this because if one regularly monitors Israel's normally US-oriented liberal media, such as The Jerusalem Post for example, then what I am saying in this update should be at least two-day old news. What could very well occur next without any warning will not come as a shock or a surprise.

The plain fact is that Obama has thrown both Netanyahu and Israel under the proverbial bus in the face of the existential threat posed by a nuclear armed Iran. If one happens to think that Israel will do nothing, one might want to reconsider the thought process in which that particular assessment was arrived at. One might just discover the acute difference between the level of threat posed by HAMAS to Israel, and the existential level threat posed by a nuclear-armed Iran.

29 September 2014: I have been very critical of Israeli PM Netanyahu since this summer's IDF Operation Protective Edge because of the political calculus and maneuverings he used during the ground combat phase of the operation and how he unilaterally concluded it - guaranteeing great bloodshed and destruction in the near future. However, that aside, in his absolutely masterful address today to the United Nations General Assembly I would have to say that PM Netanyahu very adroitly placed all the world's nations on notice that an Iranian indigenous production of nuclear weapons cannot and will not be allowed to occur.

I have keyed upon and have here excerpted several sentences from the transcript as spoken by PM Netanyahu approximately midway through his address:

"Imagine how much more dangerous the Islamic State, ISIS, would be if it possessed chemical weapons. Now imagine how much more dangerous the Islamic state of Iran would be if it possessed nuclear weapons.

Ladies and gentlemen, would you let ISIS enrich uranium? Would you let ISIS build a heavy water reactor? Would you let ISIS develop intercontinental ballistic missiles? Of course you wouldn’t. Then you mustn’t let the Islamic state of Iran do those things either, because here’s what will happen. Once Iran produces atomic bombs, all the charms and all the smiles will suddenly disappear. They’ll just vanish. And it’s then that the ayatollahs will show their true face and unleash their aggressive fanaticism on the entire world.

There’s only one responsible course of action to address this threat. Iran’s nuclear military capabilities must be fully dismantled. (Applause.) Make no mistake: ISIS must be defeated. But to defeat ISIS and leave Iran as a threshold nuclear power is to win the battle and lose the war. (Applause.) To defeat ISIS and leave Iran as a threshold nuclear power is to win the battle and lose the war."

I believe these words may well constitute a final act of diplomatic preparation of the battlefield to come, as well as the distinct possibility that they have been spoken just prior to a military preemption of an indigenous Iranian nuclear weapon -- by Israel alone if necessary.  I say this even though I have believed for the past four years that the prophecy of Jeremiah 49:34-39 speaks to a coalition of nations being used as a sword by the Lord to bring judgment upon Iran. I still believe based upon the words of Jeremiah's prophecy that Iran will be struck from all directions of the compass in the removal of the foremost aspect of its growing military capabilities: nuclear weapons and the missiles intended to deliver them.

36 comments:

mark3210 said...

Sean,

Maybe it was a great speech today - I just feel like we are years past the time for speeches on Iran.

It's clear as ever that the diplomatic track is dead and buried.

Just have to wait a little longer I guess.

Anonymous said...

Sean,

How do you envision this to couple with Ezekiel 38?

Many thanks for your dedication to Scripture.jo

Sean Osborne said...

Mark3210,

Yes, as stated previously, in these last days all things are on the Lord's appointment schedule; He is in complete control of all things for His purposes.

Sean Osborne said...

Anonymous,

I don't think its yet possible to fully couple PM Netanyahu's speech at the UNGA of Monday 29SEP with Ezekiel 38/39.

PM Netanyahu's speech was basically everything that needed to be said in a formal declaration of war against non-state organizations of militant political Islam by the leader of an existent nation state.

It is something that should be adopted by the UNGA as policy for the membership to follow as the rest of its charter principles are supposedly adherent to.

Had Obama given this same speech he would have most of the civilized world praising him at this point.

But this is a world turned upside down.

However, there is a coupling between current international events and and Ezekiel 38/39, and that coupling is found in economics.

Short of armed force the nations of the world have long been, and still are, primarily using economics as a weapon to impose their will upon rogue states. That weapon is "economic sanctions."

In Ezekiel 38/39 Gog of Magog will use his confederated forces to impose a taking of the spoils from what a peaceful and prosperous Israel will have at that time achieved.

I would also note that an economically prosperous future Greater Israel was at least partially envisioned in the final closing remarks of Netanyahu's speech.

Sean Osborne said...

By the way Mark,

Bibi did say this yet again:

"And yet despite everything that has happened, some still don’t take Israel’s security concerns seriously. But I do and I always will — (applause) — because as prime minister of Israel, I’m entrusted with the awesome responsibility of ensuring the future of the Jewish people and the future of the Jewish state. And no matter what pressure is brought to bear, I will never waiver in fulfilling that responsibility."

There is a finite limit to the political calculations Netanyahu engages the world and particularly the West with, and the prospect of an Iranian nuclear weapon perched atop a missile delivery system is where that rubber meets the road for Bibi.

Roz said...

Because of how Bibi poorly executed Operation Protective Edge to it failing conclusion, I don't think I really believe he can act decisively, or alone, on a mission against Iran.

hartdawg said...

I agree with you Roz

mark3210 said...

Sean,

What you say in that last update is true, but I don't remember this WH ever having much common ground with Israel at any point in the last 6 years.

Ken B said...

Sean,

Could we be looking at Bibi being replaced?

The next PM will act on iran?

I don't want to get too deep into the speculation game but seems like Netanyahu speaks tough but is more worried about politics?

Ken B

Sean Osborne said...

Mark,

Not having much common ground and having zero common ground are on two entirely different levels when it comes to bi-lateral relations between sovereign nations.

Sean Osborne said...

Ken,

Bibi cannot be replaced as PM as long as his ruling coalition remains intact, and that appears likely to be the case until the point immediately following the end of the current season of feasts in Israel (Rosh Hashanah, Yom Kippur and Sukkot).

Yom Kippur is Saturday, 4 OCT and Sukkot begins on the following Thursday (9 OCT) and continues for a week.

At that time the ministers could vote no confidence and new government elections would be held with the leading party's leader becoming the next Prime Minister.

Bibi Netanyahu's tenure as Prime Minister will depend on who the many rabbi's within the different Israeli political parties decide to support depending on who receives the most votes and what alliances are forged among the parties..

None of them are currently willing to provide Netanyahu with carte blanche support.

The 24 November deadline to reach a deal in nuclear talks between the West and Iran leaves precious little time for all parties concerned.

Ken B said...

Sean,

One more quick comment / question.

How is it that we can stop flights to Ben Gurion due to hamas rockets that could possibly kill 200 people if the savages hit a plane...?

HOWEVER there are NO restrictions on flights to and from West Africa? Where literally thousands have died... and don’t forget we (he) are (is) willingly sending our soldiers there...

I start to drift into conspiracy land and I am not even that type of person...

Sean Osborne said...

Ken,

The answer is because the Ebola 'genie' is already out of the bottle in the United States, and the government knows it.

There are hundreds (possibly thousands) of people in the US who could have become infected with the Ebola virus at Dulles Int'l in DC or Dallas.

mark3210 said...

Sean,

I didn't think there was any common ground when Bibi gave his UN speeches in 2012 and 2013.

In 2012, I distinctly remember how Obama refused to meet with him, said the Israeli concerns were "noise" to be ignored, and leftists were endlessly accusing him of "interfering" with the US election every time he spoke about Iran.

On the other hand, the WH relationship seems closer to Iran now than ever before, which I find truly stunning.

Sean Osborne said...

There was the common ground of Israel standing down its planned strike on Iran in 2012.

PM Netanyahu stood down on that attack in order for the E3/EU+3 (a/k/a the P5+1) Talks with Iran and the sanctions to have an effect, and which led directly to the Interim Agreement of 2013.

Israel was on-board and on common ground with the US and EU for that effort, even though they correctly assessed it had little to no chance of bearing good fruit.

Now when its 7 weeks away from 24 November 2014 there's nothing left but the obvious.

mark3210 said...

Sean,

I could be dead wrong again but I feel like there is a 2 in 3 chance Israel will act against Iran in the next month, before midterms.

At least if they go before the election there are some limits on how far the WH can criticize Israel.

Also Debka being offline makes me think it will happen sooner rather than later.

If they wait all the way until 11/24, the WH will just cut another bad deal with Iran and extend the deadline once more.

Sean Osborne said...

U.S. mid-term elections have no bearing on whether or not Israel will strike Iran sooner rather than later.

This is due to the fact that the U.S. Congress already has a large bi-partisan pro-Israel majority.

mark3210 said...

Sean,

Can you tell us anything about the cause of the explosion at Parchin?

Accident or intentional?

Sean Osborne said...

The detonation was very large and very powerful. It blew out windows over 7 miles away from the Parchin complex.

The detonation burned and flattened many if not most trees in the few villages surrounding Parchin.

The fireball almost certainly had to have been detected by US and/or Israeli IR reconnaissance satellites.

I'm waiting on visible wavelength satellite imagery on the aftermath of this event.

NG said...

The question is:

What is the cause of this explosion?

a) simple accident
b) terrorist sabotage
c) Israeli airstrike

It seems you believe a) is the correct answer. I think b) can't be excluded.

B) and C) would/could explain latest move against Israel of Iran's proxy in Lebanon (Hezbollah).

Sean Osborne said...

NG,

Like I wrote, the images have a couple thousand more words within them. I was hoping folks would exercise a magnifying glass and look for themselves instead of just blurting out what appears to be obvious based upon the image.

That said...

I do not think this was a simple accident nor was it sabotage.

There are craters from what were obviously precision munitions. Next to one crater is a tree which was left virtually untouched.

There's other stuff to see, but I'll let others have fun exploring the image before saying anything further.

mark3210 said...

Considering there are multiple explosions I think we can rule out an accident.

I suppose the question is why go after just Parchin?

Is this meant to serve as a "final warning" of sorts, going into the last rounds of talks?

NG said...

So... If this explosion is not the result of an accident or a sabotage, we are not left with a lot of options... Iranians vowed they would retaliate hard if Israeli used force against them.

If this was an Israeli airstrike (using drones?) and Iran is not retaliating then it is clear Iranians are too powerless or too scared to engage IDF which is opening the door for airstrikes on larger scale...

In the meantime Ebola is reaching both Europe and the US and there is the seismic activity... these might be pointing to a rapture that is even sooner that we might realize (I know rapture is a signless event and we won't know the day and the hour until it happens but Jesus was clear in Matt 24 about events and signs to look for to recognize the "season").

NG said...

Here you go...

Jerusalem Post:

Kuwaiti newspaper claims Islamic Republic ordered attack on Israeli soldiers on Tuesday following explosion at an Iranian nuclear compound which was carried out by a "foreign state."

http://m.jpost.com/HomePage/FrontPage/Article.aspx?id=378533

Sean Osborne said...

Why just Parchin?

That is where warhead initiators are designed, built and tested. Very specialized equipment needed to do this.

This is common knowledge - all of the P5+1 nations plus Israel know this.

Destroy the key below ground structures at this site and no deliverable warheads exist in Iran - at least until the Iranians reconstitute that capability sometime in the future.

Ever hear of stealth aircraft?

I think it's clear as the rising of the sun this morning that Israel has very effective stealth aircraft with which to deliver the very powerful and precise bunker buster ordnance that destroyed the underground structures beneath the ordinary looking part of Parchin exhibiting surface damage minus severe blast effects of an above ground explosion.

The orange glow of this strike was seen in Tehran; the blast wave was able to shatter glass windows several miles away. Big time ordnance. Even the Israel imagery specialist said the satellite picture evidenced signs of an "attack."
There it is point blank in the face. No doubt about it when one adds up all of the factors being reported since last Sunday, 5 October 2014.

So much for Iran's vaunted air defense systems. They, like their Syrian brothers, never saw the attack sortie coming and never saw it leave. That's STEALTH!!!

And the Iranians know without a shadow of doubt that one of two nations hit them where it really hurts, and one of two nations has a feckless leader who wouldn't dare while nuclear negotiations so near and dear to him are ongoing.

Who does that leave by process of elimination?

It's a no-brainer.

More importantly my words in the original section of this SITREP, which were wholly discounted by some readers here as not possible...

"If one happens to think that Israel will do nothing, one might want to reconsider the thought process in which that particular assessment was arrived at...

PM Netanyahu very adroitly placed all the world's nations on notice that an Iranian indigenous production of nuclear weapons cannot and will not be allowed to occur...

At this point all intellectually honest folks who have not yet read the linked transcript of Netanyahu's speech might want to do so in order to come up to speed with the schism that exists between Israel and the United States regarding the truly existential threats that exist in the Middle East and how each is willing, or not willing, to address those threats.. One might want to recalibrate and reconsider how this situation is to be assessed in full.
"

... came to pass in the real-world in real-time 5 days ago.

Sean Osborne said...

The Hezbollah IED attack on IDF troops in the Mt. Dov region of the Golan was probably not related to a retaliation for the Parchin strike.

The Mt. Dov IED attack was part of a process that was initiated and prepared for well prior to what occurred last Sunday.

Something more is likely coming down the pipe.


NG said...

Would make sense.

If Mt. Dov attack (through proxies) was all Iran had in store to deter further airstrikes then the Islamic republic is in trouble.

Sean Osborne said...

One thing of which I am also certain is that the Iranians will find no hard evidence or proof from the ordnance used that Israel did it.

They will find zippo, nada, nothing of the sort to present to the UN.

They can't find anything because according to the Iranian regime there is no nuclear weapons program in the country.

Duhhhhh....

Nevertheless, what occurred on Sunday is a whole echelon above what the public knows about state-of-the-art stealth capability and the materials used to achieve it.

Consider this...

The US DoD recently went public saying they feared for their pilots and aircraft safety in missions overflying Syria to attack IS targets. The we find out that F-22 stealth fighters were used in these combat sorties. And the US publicly speaks of fear of the Syrian air defenses?

Rubbish. Nonsense. Food for the extremely gullible or the factually ignorant.

FACT: Israel has flown hostile missions over Syria with not-very-stealthy F-15I and F-16I strike aircraft for the past 7 years. And they did so without so much as a blimp on any Syrian radar. The Syrians had no clue about what was going on at that time.

FACT:Israel has in this 7-year long period of time annihilated an under-construction North Korean plutonium reactor at Dier ez-Zor (Operation Orchard), motor pools and depots filled with combat vehicles, even underway convoys of military hardware on the Damascus-Beirut highway... with absolute impunity... for seven years now.

Iran never saw this coming and still has no clue how it was done and can't say anything publicly because what was destroyed they say they don't have.

Scipio said...

Sean, as always, THX for your insight and research. Two brief questions: Does the slow down or lack of funding by Zero to Israel, have an effect on their planning for future endeavors of large scale? Bible prophecy says "no" but maybe God does better than what Israel could 'normally' do. Second-I have a feeling that Israel does these stealth raids better than we do. Is it just because of our political "brakes" THX

Sean Osborne said...

Scipio,

According to the Congressional Research Service report published this past April:

"In 2007, the Bush Administration and the Israeli government agreed to a 10-year, $30 billion
military aid package for the period from FY2009 to FY2018"

The dollar amount for the just ended FY14 was $3.1 billion, plus an additional $504 million to fund the Joint US-Israel Iron Dome, David's Sling, Arrow II and Arrow III programs.

The dollar amount for the ongoing FY15 is also $3.1 billion, plus an additional 282.7 million for the ongoing Joint Missile Defense programs.

The American taxpayer is keeping the Israel Defense Forces well supplied at a time when our forces are being significantly drawn down.

We'll have to wait and see what happens in 2016, 17 and 18, but with the likelihood of a GOP/Tea Party bonanza in the election this year and the presidential election in November 2016 the military financing commitment to Israel through to 2018 will remain, and Israel's raw military power which secular sources currently rank as the 6th most powerful on planet earth (#1-USA, 2-China, 3-Russia, 4-India and 5-UK) is head and shoulders above that of #17 Iran.

From my perspective, this tremendous American financial backing is a key factor in what will be Israel's overwhelming victory in the final act of the Psalm 83 scenario, not to mention that this was all foreordained by God over 3,000 years ago. This also do not take into account the God has said that each of Israel's soldiers will fight as if he were David. Insurmountable power backed by an airborne, missile-borne and submarine-borne nuclear arsenal which is world-class elite in its own right.

On your second question... yes, it's the political climate in Washington that holds back the overwhelming power we could bring down on our enemies. That is going to change in short order also.


hartdawg said...

Sean, I hope your right about the political climate changing in short order, I really do, but I'm not counting on it. Obama should have lost by a landslide in 2012 but he didn't. I believe there's a possibility that voter fraud occurred. I do, however suspect that between now and November obama will play nice with Israel to gain support for the democratic party....just my guess anyway

Sean Osborne said...

Obama is a lame duck who is done politically. His own party has tossed him under the bus; he is a liability to any Democrat candidate anywhere in a country.

mark3210 said...

Sean,

Just to refresh people's memories, did Israel ever do a stealth airstrike against Iran before? Or were the earlier incidents much different?

It seems like these explosions at Iranian nuclear sites come at least once per year.

Sean Osborne said...

There have been a few major sabotage events against Iranian nuclear infrastructure, and at first I thought that this was another one of those.

But coming on the heels of Netanyahu's UN speech and given the evidence of the satellite imagery, I believe this is a first of its kind direct attack on Iranian nuclear infrastructure; one which precisely hit the key link where conventional chain-reaction initiators are married up with deliverable warheads.

This strike would have occurred in 2012, but was aborted at the last minute by Netanyahu to allow sanctions and the E3/EU+3 Talks in Geneva a valid chance at success.

jmoll106 said...

Sean,
Looks like Iran is starting to rebuild at Parchin. The clincher is from our state department
in a Jerusalem post article.

"But State Department spokesman John Kirby said on Thursday, “When you’re talking about a site like Parchin, you’re talking about a conventional military site.”
Iran is therefore within its rights to pursue construction projects on such sites, he added."

I have found the truth is always opposite what comes out of this administration.

Your article sheds the truth of the matter. Thanks.

Sean Osborne said...

jmoll106,

That's the nasty and very dirty little secret that has been hidden by the Obama Administration and the U.S. State Department, the EU, France, UK and Germany.

The US/EU/E3 negotiators capitulated to Iranian demands to regard Parchin as a conventional military site. This feckless capitulation occurred well prior to the agreed upon terms of the JCPOA.

The US/EU/E3 capitulation therefore legitimized Parchin as a purely conventional military site, and therefore placed IAEA inspections of it out of the scope of the so-called "possible military dimensions" of Iranian nuclear weapons research.

The US/EU/E3/IAEA capitulation accepted at face value Iranian claims that any past nuclear weapons activity at Parchin had ended, but also placed inspection of the site to verify those claims solely in the hands of Iranian inspectors.

So, the bottom line is that not even the IAEA's capitulation to Iran in the secret side deals to allow Iranian inspectors to submit reports will result in a report about anything to do with "the conventional military site at Parchin."

The only means left for any nation to deal with Parchin is to turn the entire complex in into a giant smoking hole in the ground.