Sunday, August 15, 2010

Israel at the Rubicon

15 August 2010: After years of endless debate, delayed decisions, additional deliberations, bald-faced lies and disinformation, followed by economic sanctions packages piled upon other ineffective economic sanctions packages, coupled with incessant Iranian and Western bellicose rhetoric which would have been considered casus belli in years gone by, the announcement made on Friday by Sergei Novikov, the spokesman for the Russian Federal Atomic Energy Agency (Rosatom), that the fueling of the Iranian Bushehr nuclear plant will commence on Saturday, 21 August has left the State of Israel standing on the southern bank of a literal River Rubicon.

In the absense of a decision by Western governments, the United States of America in particular, to back up its own rhetoric with concrete actions, Israel has been left holding the baggage containing approximately 144 hours of time. At the conclusion of those 144 hours it will have become irreversibly too late for military action to halt Iran and its current apocalyptic regime's nuclear weapons program. This is the conventional wisdom being related by many subject matter experts in the past 36 hours, experts such as former Ambassador John Bolton. Bolton's comments to FoxNews last Friday speak of just such a window of time remaining.

However, there's another window no one is openly considering, a window that may likely already have closed. The name of this window is "Russian nuclear technicians at Bushehr." Those Russian technicians effectively consistute a "human shield" guarding against a pre-emptive Israeli strike on the Bushehr reactor complex. Not to mention the Russian VIPs who will begin arriving on-site at the Bushehr complex for the opening cermonies prior to the end of the 144 hours.

Short of starting a war with Russia, the physical presence of Russian technicians at Bushehr affords Israel no option but to focus its contingency plans against deeply buried Iranian enrichment cascades, weaponization plants and delivery systems as well as the suppression of Iran's military retaliation capabilities. The Iranian response to an Israel air assault also includes thousands of missiles, some of them likely tipped with biological or chemical weapons in Lebanon (Hezbollah) and Syria, as well as an Iranian assault against commerical shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

Have I just described a recipe for an armgeddon-like scenario to unfold in the Middle East? No doubt about it. This is precisely the type of scenario the leaders of apocalyptic Iran want more than anything. Great chess players those Iranians. So here stands Israel on the southern bank of the River Rubicon with virtually no time left to ponder her next move. Irregardless of the next action taken this world will never be the same, and only the ancient Biblical prophets have told us what lies ahead.

49 comments:

hartdawg said...

hello, another great post. i have yet another question, actually 2: 1) if isreal were to launch a strike (as you said it has to be soon and they will be alone) what do you think the ramifications will be? 2) exactly how imminent is the fulfillment of psalm 83? i use to think that psalm 83 and isaiah 17 and then ezekiel 38&39 which follows was looming over our heads but now i'm thinking it could be a few years out (tho its in the process of fulfillment). IF saudi is involved in psalm 83 (tho im not certain) things have to happen cause they are more concerned about a nuclear iran than isreal and egypt doesnt seem to be in-line yet and tho jordan is at odds with isreal they dont seem hostile enough to attack (at least not yet) i could be wrong tho. am i mistaken or could it be another few years?

Rapture said...

Good article Sean. Israel really needs to "Just Do It!!" right now. The game is in the final seconds now.

SeanOsborne said...

Hartdawg,

1. War. It is imminent, via one cause or another.

2. I believe Psalm 83 is a prophecy in the process of fulfillment. I also believe there's no way of knowing with certainty when the final battle will be fought even though that engagement appears very, very near.

I also believe the time from now through Yom Kippur is a critically dangerous time.

newine said...

Great observations! You wrote:

"Russian technicians... 'human shield'... starting a war with Russia..."

"Behold, I am against you, O Gog, chief prince of Meshech and Tubal. And I will turn you about and put hooks into your jaws, and I will bring you out, and all your army..." (Ezekiel 38:3b-4, ESV)

Avenging its technicians -- a set of collateral risks Israel may be forced to incur in order to achieve its objectives -- may provide Russia with the excuse it needs to do what it lusts after anyway: capturing Israel's Leviathan oil and gas field (for itself and its allies).

The events shaping up may constitute the jaw-hooks Ezekiel spoke of.

Nathan Jones said...

Fascinating about the Russians using their own technicians as human shields, Sean. It sure does place Israel in a dilemma. Still, those Israeli's are a wily bunch, and surely a plan is ready to be implemented - and it'll be clever.

SeanOsborne said...

The Russian techs on-site are one issue to contend with.

The other is the fuel rods stored in an ancillary on-site structure under IAEA auspices. Hitting that structure creates a dirty bomb. A high-precision strike is required should the IAF go whels up.

Another thing is that Russian government VIPs will be on-site this Friday. This effectively reduces the already highly risky strike window downwards to the neext 48 hours or so. During this period of time the moon will be in the first quarter. While not optimal for a stealthy night-time strike, it's better than a full moon.

If i were an IDF planner, internal or covert sabotage of the reactor building or power grid infrastructure which leaves no "fingerprints" behind seems to me to be a good option for the IDF to execute in order to preempt the planned fueling process.

Expected Imminently said...

Hello Sean
Extremely interesting post!

I seem to remember that when Israel bombed the Iraq reactor, the foreign technicians (Chinese I think?) who were in the same position as Russia is now, were blown up with it!
The world said something like “oops, oh dear, naughty Israel” and the world kept turning.
I bet those Russians are changing their underwear on a frequent basis as we speak!
Sue

SeanOsborne said...

Been doing some more detailed IDF weapons systems and ordnance capability research in the past 24 hours.

What I learned boils down to this:

IF the IAF goes wheels up to execute this mission, the F-16I Sufa jets will never enter Iranian airspace. At best they'll approach and cut loose cruise missiles in the vicinity of 240-250 miles distant from Iranian airspace.

In fact, I believe the handful of F-16I Sufa jets necessary to execute such an attack will be safely back on the ground before the actual strike "packages" begin impacting the reactor building, or whats left of it.

The Iranian AD crews will never see or know what happened. The reactor building will suddenly explode and then implode into a smoking hole in the ground.

Yes, IF Israel executes this mission the Iranian AD crews are going to have an experience somewhat similar to that of their Syrian brothers on 6 September 2007 in the vicinity of "Al-Kibar."

Delilah missiles of the Hanit variation coated with new steathly Signaflux paint could do the job and no one will ever see them until it is goodbye kiss time.

mark3210 said...

Sean, I saw an article on wnd that said the domes at Bushehr have been hardened and would likely require tactical nukes to penetrate them. Do you know anything about this?
How many sites would Israel need to use tactical nukes against?

http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=192509

SeanOsborne said...

Mark, I think a few 1,000 lb warhead Delilah/Hanit cruise missiles will make quick work of the reactor containment building.

The containment building is basically 4' thick rebar concrete with an internal steel containment liner.

mark3210 said...

Probably just another article trying to downplay the odds of a strike then. At this point how likely do you think Israel will do it, Sean?
I think they will but they're certainly playing it down to the last minute.
I also think most Americans are going to be pretty caught off guard if it happens this week.

SeanOsborne said...

I think Netanyahu and his cabinet have come to the decision that Bushehr is a trap laid for Israel and they have no intention of getting caught in it.

I believe Israel has no choice in the matter regarding Iranian nukes, but for the time being Bushehr will remain standing until Israel decides otherwise.

mark3210 said...

Sean,
If Israel doesn't act, what's to stop the Iranians from going full speed ahead at Bushehr and making as many bombs as quickly as possible?
And then Israel will be forced into a similar decision a few months from now. I know there isn't much surprise left if they do it today, but I just don't see what good it does to drag this out further.

SeanOsborne said...

Mark,

Full speed at an on-line Bushehr reactor equates to the several months necessary for those rods to produce plutonium and othe PU isotopes usable in nuclear weaponry.

Outisde of full-scale warfare, once Bushehr is on-line then John Bolton's comments are correct and bombing the facility is out of the question.

Even a non-nuclear EMP strike would leave the containment structure intact, but would then probably lead to a Chernobyl-like meltdown and radiological disaster.

I think doing nothing prior to Bushehr going on-line will bring far greater problems in the future.

mark3210 said...

Sean,
So what do you mean Bushehr is a "trap"?
If they don't strike today, are we looking at action sometime in early 2011 like some in the media are speculating, and would that action include Bushehr or not?

SeanOsborne said...

Bushehr is not the core of iran's nuke weapons program, and thus should not be the high-priority target.

Natanz and Qom are the core of Iran's nuke weapons program.

Making much of and then striking Bushehr misses the mark of what Israel has to combat the existential threat against it. In this sense Bushehr is a trap.

mark3210 said...

What about Paul Leventhal who said Bushehr would be able to produce a quarter ton of plutonium a year, enough for 30 bombs?
From where I'm sitting Bushehr looks like an existential threat also.

Expected Imminently said...

Hello Sean
By what you say, it sounds as if Bushehr is as much a decoy as a trap. Mother Skylark moves away from her nest making a fuss to draw attention away from her eggs where the real action is?
Sue

SeanOsborne said...

mark3210 wrote...

What about Paul Leventhal who said Bushehr would be able to produce a quarter ton of plutonium a year, enough for 30 bombs?

Sorry Mark, but you have seriously misquoted Paul Levanthal (of the Nuclear Control Instittute).

What Paul Leventhal actually said regarding the Bushehr reactor is that if Iran were to withdraw from the NPT (which they have not yet done) AND if Iran was to renounce the agreement they have with Russia regarding the return to Russia of expended fuel rods - which they have not done either as of yet --- then you might have made a valid point.

The quarter-ton of plutonium-per-year figure is not verified... it is Paul's or his academia colleagues best guestimate, and therefore not yet an established fact. Once Bushehr goes on-line we may collect more verified specifics.

"From where I'm sitting Bushehr looks like an existential threat also."

Indeed, it may well become one in the future.

However, it will likely cease to exist prior just prior to achieving that level of a threat to Israel.

mark3210 said...

Perhaps we should at least give consideration to the possibility Obama himself could take military action against Iran? It seems like his party is headed for a big defeat in November if nothing changes.

SeanOsborne said...

Obama attack Iran?

That absolutely does not square with his "reset" with Russia, and it most certainly would not save him from the wrath of the Tea Party movement.

We know a 'wag the dog' when we see one.

SeanOsborne said...

Expected Imminently,

Yes, a decoy and a trap.

Nevertheless, I'm fairly certain that a high-impact, unpredictable and high-consequence event (i.e. a "Black Swan Theory" event) is going to occur in the world very soon to set off the cascade of prophetic dominoes.

Expected Imminently said...

Aha ‘the Black Swan Theory’!

Not wishing to be entirely ignorant, I Googled this. My first attempt resulted in a vast collection of British pubs named ‘The Black Swan’ along with ‘The Red Fox’; ‘The White Horse Inn’ and the usual ‘Kings Head’. Finally I was informed of the theory of lurching from one cataclysmic event to the other (The Guardian).

Now that IS interesting. Not being an even remotely Maths driven soul, I learned via Chuck Missler that Quantum Mechanics disproves ‘randomness’; signifying that a ‘designer’ is in operation within the cosmos. It suggests that to our Designer God, randomness is a brilliantly orchestrated, plan and purpose for the end times. :)

SeanOsborne said...

9/11 was a "Black Swan" event. So is the current global financial crisis.

They were planned by human beings and executed by human beings and each have changed this world in totally unforeseen ways. One piles up upon the one before it or occurs as a result thereof.

Such is the nature of the prophetic end times wars.

Get ready, get set, go!

Expected Imminently said...

And they’re off!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-11045537

21 August 2010 Last updated at 09:26

Iran begins loading Bushehr nuclear reactor
Iran has begun loading fuel into its first nuclear power station in a ceremony attended by Russian officials.
Russia will operate the Bushehr plant in southern Iran, supplying its nuclear fuel and taking away the nuclear waste.
Iran has been subject to four rounds of UN sanctions because of its separate, uranium enrichment programme.

hartdawg said...

....and isreal didnt launch an attack. to be honest i`m not sure thats good or bad. i have a hunch netanyahu is not convinced by obamas "assurance" that a nuclear iran is not imminent.

hartdawg said...

i`m also wondering that if isreal would have attacked iran if russia and other nonpsalm 83 nations would have been involved and thus keeping the stage for psalm 83 to be set.

hartdawg said...

hey, what do you think is going to come of these "peace talks" scheduled for sept 2 i think and the one year deadline for a peace plan? i`m guessing a waste of airline fuel flying people over here. are you gonna write about it or do you think its not even worth mentioning?

SeanOsborne said...

Nothing at all will come of the 2 SEP direct talks in Washington.

Zippo, nada, nothing at all.

hartdawg said...

my thoughts exactly. a waste of time.

hartdawg said...

actually, these "peace talks" will produce a few things 1)more hatred and blame for isreal 2) sympathy for obamas "peace loving" islamic, terrorist buddies and 3)probably more violence.

SeanOsborne said...

hartdawg,

To slightly modify what I said above, I agree completely with your three points.

My next blog item will address this with a little more information.

hartdawg said...

looking forward to it, tho i`m not sure if the violence part is accurate. we need to be praying for netanyahu.

mark3210 said...

Doesn't it seem like every time Iran advances their weapon program Obama tries to shift the focus to "peace talks" to take the target off Iran and his failed "engagement" policy? The timing is blatantly obvious. Obama's looking for a distraction going into midterms because all of his policies, foreign and domestic have failed miserably.

mark3210 said...

Sean, I know how hard it is to predict future events, but do you think we are likely to see a major Mideast war prior to the November elections? Or do you think things will hold for at least a few more months now that Israel chose to allow Bushehr to start up?

hartdawg said...

i in no way speak for sean but as you said these things are hard to predict. personally, if nothing breaks by yom kipper i think things will hold til next summer. could be wrong tho.

mark3210 said...

Seems like the timeline keeps getting pushed back, doesn't it hartdawg? No way if you asked me 4 years ago when Israel was at war with Hezbollah that I would have thought the Iran situation would still remain unresolved today.

SeanOsborne said...

Mark,

Your post above of 4:32 PM today is spot-on correct from my perspective.

One need not be a seer to see that such policies are designed to precipitate that which most normal folks believe is a virtual nightmare. In fact, I think one would have to be a kool-ade guzzling robot not to see it because the agenda is that blatant from my perspective.

Do I think there will be a major Middle Eastern war prior to November?

As detailed in my other recent blog posts, yes I do.

Without giving anything away at this time and in line with what I wrote above in my reply to Hartdawg, my next blog item will address this issue.

Truth be told, I thought such an analytical blog post would be an easy thing to accomplish this morning (I had the core of the blog item all ready to go) and that I could get it composed, proofed and done today: (Sorry, Don).

I was quite incorrect in that assumption. The subject matter requires more due diligence to meet investigative standards that I adhere to. When I actually do post it you might understand why I have delayed posting it at this time.

By the way, there's nothin' at all humanly predictive about this because human free will actions ( a virtual "wild card", so to speak) will inevitably cause the result we've been prophetically given in Divine text.

hartdawg said...

i feel inclined to modify my statement as well. a major war may break out before november but i dont think itll be the final fulfillment of psalm 83/isa 17. it appears not all the nations are in-line yet...but again, i could be dead wrong. good point mark about things getting pushed back. these things are impossible to predict. (the exact timing anyway)

SeanOsborne said...

I also think it behooves one to remember the words of our LORD when he said, "And you will hear of wars and rumors of wars. See that you are not troubled; for these things must come to pass, but the end is not yet."

All men and nations have an appointment with destiny; that appointment in on God's clock.

hartdawg said...

point well taken!

mark3210 said...

Well if there is war in the next 2 months, is it most likely to be started by Iran/Syria/Hezbollah rather than Israel?
If Israel was going to strike the first blow I think they would have done so last week.

hartdawg said...

mark, i think iran/hezbillah and hamas ALREADY STARTED the war and anything isreal does (tho they`ll get blamed for it) is in defense. i apologize if thats a stupid answer but syria,lebanon....already started it.

mark3210 said...

Hartdawg,
Whenever the next battle, or escalation, or whatever you want to call it occurs, a lot less people will blame Israel than the media would have you believe (regardless of who starts it). The media would have us believe the world population supports Iran/North Korea/Russia/China etc. I just don't believe that to be the case.
And I don't believe the world wants Saddam Hussein back either, or hates America for getting rid of him.

SeanOsborne said...

Rodney Dezrn a/k/a "Watchman 12" made an attempt to write:

"The next conflict to come will be..."

Sorry that's enough. Rodney's baseless nonsense has not been allowed on this blog for many months now. Nor will it ever be in the future.

Apparently also being banned by Chris from the Rapture Forums today wasn't enough for him, so he immeidately comes here again to see if his banning from this blog was still in effect.

It is. Permanently so.

Rodney a/k/a "Watchman12" has our prayers for his mental eudaemonia, but perhaps seeking out some Christian professional couseling might also be a good idea.

hartdawg said...

hey sean, have you considered comment moderation (forgot the exact term)? some sites implemented those so unwanted/inappropiate comments wont even show up.

SeanOsborne said...

mark3210 said...
"Well if there is war in the next 2 months, is it most likely to be started by Iran/Syria/Hezbollah rather than Israel?"

Mark,

A state of war has existed between Israel and Syria/Lebanon/Hezbollah since March 1984 - for the past 26 years - when Lebanon (under Syrian insistence) abbrogated the American-negotiated armistice it had signed with Israel on May 17, 1983.

At the present there exists another period of relative quiet on the front lines. Should Lebanon try sniping another Israeli soldier - the Lebanese Army will cease to exist shortly thereafter, and the whole of Lebanon will be conquered by the IDF.

They have been warned.

It matters not who shoots first because when the shooting stops the Arab armies will be dead and defeated.

SeanOsborne said...

hatdawg,

I have considered invoking comment moderation for this blog, and may do so should undesirables attempt to force the issue.

For the most part undesirable posts are very short-lived. All posts go immediately to my mail account which is constantly monitored and its just a click away from that notification to throw out the digital trash.

hartdawg said...

personally, i may not agree with everything bill salus, david reagan or others may say but i know they have been attested by God. i visit these sites to learn, ask questions and share my thoughts. if i disagree i ask about it and if i still feel the same way i leave it at that and if not then i just learned something. if someone is so opposed to what a blogger is saying then why go to the site? i dont understand that.