Friday, May 2, 2014

Global SITREP C4-14: Slovyansk in the Crosshairs

Ukrainian army securing an insurgent checkpoint near Slovyansk

UPDATE 5 May 2015: Once again intensifying combat is reportedly raging in and around Slovyansk, and Ukrainian special civil police forces have been deployed to the southern city of Odessa. Another Ukrainian helicopter was shot down today, but the pilot survived the ordeal.  There is also a report of Ukrainian paratroopers jumping into the the Slovyansk battle.

2 MAY 2014: On the start of the 5th day since Ukrainian military forces surrounded Slovyansk and a Russian effort to relieve the city did not materialize as expected, Ukraine launched a full-scale assault early this morning to take the city back from its Russian Spetsnaz and pro-Russian occupiers. Without question the Russian invasion of Ukraine has now entered a far more deadly and destructive phase; it may be only a matter of time at this point until direct full-scale conflict is joined between Russia and Ukraine across a broad front along their mutual border with the Battle of Slovyansk becoming the first contact of this expected war.

Russia has further compromised any possible alibi in this blatant invasion of sovereign Ukrainian territory as its Spetsnaz forces under the command of a GRU Colonel (details below) have met the Ukrainian offensive with top of the line MANPADS (man portable air defense) weapons being used to shoot down two Ukrainian assault helicopters killing a pilot of one and a crew member of another in this morning's first contact.

Mid-Day Update: The Ukrainian offensive in Slovyansk has apparently progressed from the many roadblocks on the outskirts into more urban areas of they city where the Spetznaz and their insurgent allies have taken to using homes and businesses as defensive positions. Some might refer to this tactic as using the general population of Slovyansk as human shields. This appears to have brought the Ukrainian forces to a quick-halt in their counter-insurgency operation as their commanders reassess options in pressing forward into the city center. The Ukrainian president reported many of the opposing forces have been killed or captured.  Facing this onslaught Russia issued the even more bellicose threat of "catastrophic consequences" for the Ukrainian action on its own soil and then promptly called for an emergency session of the UN Security Council.

28 April 2014: Ukrainian Army main battle tanks (MBTs), armored personnel carriers (APCs) and a highly Ukrainian upgraded Mi-24P/V/PM assault helicopter (NATO Name: Hind) are seen in the above image in a high speed combat maneuver near the eastern Ukrainian town of Slovyansk (also spelled: Slavyansk, Slaviansk) within the past couple of days. Slovyansk was seized by Russian Spetsnaz (special forces) and insurgent ethnic Russian militia in recent weeks. 

Ukrainian government demands for the Russian-insurgent forces to stand down have been ignored. The Russian-led forces have recently detained (read: illegally captured as Prisoners Of War) a group of NATO/European military observers from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). The lone Swedish officer of this group has been released on medical grounds. The Ukrainian Army, under the command of General Vasily Krutov, has (for the time being) completely surrounded and trapped the Russian Spetsnaz-led insurgents inside Slovyansk with the 120,000 civilian residents.

It is a fair assessment that Vladimir Putin will not allow this situation to continue for very long. Some type of air assault of other Russian Spetsnaz from Rostov-on-Don, Russia may occur in the next few hours to alter the situation in Russia's favor. Slovyansk may well be the initial large-scale contact in the coming war between Ukraine and Russia. It is this generally westward, or other than southern direction of Russian military operations (as in Crimea), that is posited to be the direction from which God will in the near future have turned Gog of Magog around via hooks in his jaws and towards the mountains of Israel as prophesied in Ezekiel 38:4 and 39:2. This is the eschatological basis for keeping a close watch in these unfolding events in Europe.

Ezekiel's Prophecy and Current Reality

Russian RT-2UTTKh Topol-M ICBM (US Army photo)

To my knowledge no one has ever addressed or posed any level of inquiry about why Ezekiel's prophecy on the coming attempt that will be made to sweep down seize a peaceful and secure Israel is, according to the full extent of the text, tantamount to a "one and done" military expedition. Gog of Magog has the Divine khäkh  (i.e. rings, hooks) placed in his jaws thereby drawing his massive but loose confederation of forces to their doom on the mountains and fields of Israel... and that is it, end of story, no further battles, and no prolonged campaign or continuation of war except for the massive amount of plague. blood, and an overflowing rain of  hail, fire and brimstone sent by the Lord upon these invaders on that particular day.

This important prophetic detail may well have its basis in the current state of affairs of Russian military landwarfare forces, particularly since the collapse of the Soviet Union and its feared military machine 23 years ago and the steady deterioration of those forces ever since. Granted, some modest modernization and specific defense systems have continued in their progression, but the basic bulk of the Russian military that used to exist is exactly that - a thoroughly extinct beast. Russian landwarfare forces are capable of one or possibly two strategic strikes or lightning land campaigns as is being threatened in against eastern Ukraine, but that's all they've got. There is no prolonged warfighting capability in Russia due to an acute lack of any sustainment for a long-haul campaign such as would ensue if Vladimir Putin were stupid enough to take NATO on directly with an invasion of the Baltic states.

This is the great, but not-so-well-kept secret behind what is occurring at the present time in the continuing Russian aggression against Ukraine. At most the once mighty Russia has mustered perhaps 40 to 50 thousand troops whose task thus far has been to intimidate and parade their wares on Russian territory. All of the real combat operations have been undertaken by a newly modernized special operations force of perhaps 500 men based at Rostov-on-Don. These men are led by a GRU intelligence officer who operates under the nom de guerre of Igor Strelkov, but whose true identity is 44-year old Colonel Igor Vsevolodovich Girkin.  These facts came to light in a recent Special Operations Forces Report (SOFREP) by a veteran Canadian trooper of 14 years, Jonathan Wade, who saw combat in Afghanistan.

The only thing keeping NATO from going full-tilt in halting Russian aggression is the existing Russian military doctrine which authorizes the immediate first use of weapons like the one in the image above - nuclear-armed strategic missile forces. You may recall I noted a Russian test launch of just such a weapon during the Crimean crisis. This is what Russia has as its trump card, and this is why NATO will only offer token resistance to Russian aggression against an indefensible Ukraine which is also ridden through and through by a 5th Column of pro-Russian Ukrainian traitors and turncoats. Should a major war be forced upon the parties in the Russia-Ukraine crisis, then the military sustainment shortcomings of the Russian forces would all but guarantee a first use of their strategic nuclear forces to "repulse armed aggression, if all other means of resolving the crisis have been exhausted," and "in case of a threat to the existence of the Russian Federation" which would occur in the event of a prolonged NATO versus Russian Federation war breaking out.

I think now we may now begin to more fully come to grips with one of the finer details of Ezekiel's inspired prophecy in chapters 38 and 39; why it will be a "one and done" military adventure for Gog of Magog and his entire military force. They have an appointment with the Lord on the mountains of Israel and not with NATO in Europe.



Drew said...

Ok, from what I am reading, things are getting very tense in Ukraine now. Given what we know of Putin's desire to bring Ukraine back into the Russian sphere, and his utter disdain for America in general and Obama in particular, why do you think he is waiting? I mean he has the forces in place, do you think he is expecting some kind of effective opposition? Ordo you think that maybe he is waiting for something else to take place before he moves?

Sean Osborne said...


Hey bro! Please read the just posted conclusion to SITREP C4-14 and tell me if your questions have been positively answered. :)

Drew said...

Yes, thank you Sean, that is very helpful. So what I am understanding is that Putin evidently feels that he must wait for all of the international chess pieces are in place before he can make any kind of move against Ukraine, And in fact may not feel that such a move is necessary, that given the right circumstances Ukraine will come under his dominion on it's own, or with minimal effort on the part of the Russian military. Thereby husbanding his forces for the prophesied battle in Israel. Makes sense. He is a cold, scheming son of a gun!

Sean Osborne said...


Yes, that's it boiled down to the very the essence.

Use special operations forces to foment civil war and let those chip fall where Russia can leisurely stroll in claiming to be restoring order.

Just as in the former Cold War Russia is adeptly using foreign proxies to do their dirty work for them, the more problematic personalities are taken care of by Spetsnaz assassination (i.e. sniper) teams.

This is also a very poignant lesson with respect to Iran and its nuclear pursuit.