Monday, September 5, 2016

Global SITREP D2:16: Caucasus (Kavkaz) 2016 Begins

Russian Federation 'Caucasus 2016' Warfighting Exercise
Commenced on 05SEP16
5 September 2016: We might as well consider this SITREP as a follow-on to Global SITREP C10-16: Ezekiel 38/39 Primary Invasion Routes

Today the Russian Federation began its 'Caucasus 16' warfighting exercise. 'Caucasus 16, also known as "Kavkaz 2016," involves combat aircraft, naval combatant ships, armored units, infantry and airborne paratroopers operating in the entirety of the Southern Russia Military District (see image below), Crimea and the Black and Caspian Seas. 

The Ukrainian government last month warned about this exercise in terms of it being a pretext for Russian military aggression against the Ukraine, possibly to create a land-bridge between Russia and Moldova and its separatist Trans-Dniester region through the province (oblast) Odessa, Ukraine just north of the Crimean Peninsula.

Southern Russia Military District (map: IISS Infographic)
The above map can be accessed at the IISS Military Balance Blog. It dates to March 2014 but is extremely useful in concert with the premise of SITREP C10-16 linked above, which hold that the Ezekiel 38/39 invasion will originate from this same area. The below map is from the Australian Government, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade. It shows the position of landlocked Moldova which is virtually trapped between western Ukraine and NATO ally Romania. 

Ukraine and Moldova (map: Australian Government)


5 comments:

hartdawg said...

Have you ever heard avi lipkins take on all this? I think he's very nutty

Sean Osborne said...

No, I have been ignoring him for quite some time now because nothing he says is of the Holy Spirit. Denis Avi Lipkin is not one of the bride of Christ and has been deceiving Christians for the past 26 years.

He is a smart man; very well-studied. However, references to him as "Pastor" are as erroneous as those which might refer to him as "Rabbi." He is neither. His focus is on Islam and its false god instead of the one true God and His only begotten Son, Jesus Christ, who takes away the sins of the world.

Sean Osborne said...

Miriam,

I had to delete your comment concerning that certain individual based upon the fact that what he is writing about Russia not being the aggressor against Ukraine is absolutely and demonstrably false.

Russian aggression was well documented, in near real-time, on Eschatology Today as its military invasion of Crimea, Ukraine two years ago was in-progress.

So egregious is this reported falsehood that I am banning anything by him from appearing on this blog. Even the mere mention of his name - in any of its various forms - will cause a deletion of the comment.

Miriam said...

I understand, I'm relieved that the deletion was intentional and not the result of hacking. I am not knowledgeable about military affairs in the way that you and some others are. I did not buy into his concept, but I did find what he said to be confusing in light of the fact that my daughter in law's family which is from Odessa absolutely hates Russia because of their current and past oppression and aggression, the worst of which was probably the Holodomor. She still has family there who are passionate Ukrainian nationalists.

That other person's reasoning seemed to presume that the Russians have historically always controlled Crimea; I don't think that is true but to be fair, I haven't done a historical study of that subject. Because I try to keep an open mind, though, I just wondered if there might be something that I was missing or that was going over my head. I caught a different one of his unrelated clips around 2 months ago and had the sense that it was "off" but I could not put my finger on the reason why.

Sean Osborne said...

Miriam,

For history buffs (like me), the history of Crimea dates to prehistoric times, with a very ancient culture existing there going way, way back, even pre-Flood it would seem.

Original name for this land was Tauris, or the Tauric Peninsula, probably from the Tauric people which lived there in those very ancient times.

Earliest records indicate the ancient Greeks had colonies along the coast back in the 5th Century BC. Greek culture dominated Crimea for the next 2000 years, even when it was part of the Roman Empire (47 BC to 330 AD) and then the Eastern Roman/Byzantine Empire. In medieval times the Scythian-Cimmerians and eight other peoples vied for control. The Kievan Rus had majority control when they were over run by the Mongol invasion (The Golden Horde).

As the Mongol rule waned neo-Byzantine rule was re-established with the Empire of Trebizond and the Principality of Theodoro, but they in turn were overtaken by the ottoman conquest between 1461 and 1475 AD.

As Ottoman rule wand Crimea was annexed by the Russian Empire of the Empress Catherine in 1783. In 1945 it became an oblast (province) of the USSR. This lasted until 1954 when Crimea became an oblast of the Ukrainian SSR.

In the independence movement of post-USSR era beginning in 1991 Crimea became the Autonomous Republic of Crimea within the independent Republic of Ukraine.

23 years later in 2014 Russia invaded (Spetznaz troops without national insignia) and the territory was annexed by the Russian Federation as the Republic of Crimea and Federal City of Sevastopol.