Sunday, June 18, 2017

Global SITREP C4-17: The Syrian Situation Revisited Part VI

Iranian Routes to the Mediterranean Sea. Image: The New Yorker 09JUN17

Update 18 June 2017:
It seems disinformation has clouded the tactical picture in southern Syria. The 13 June update last week (directly below) regarding the conquest of Dara'a by Syrian and Hezbollah forces was premature and overly optimistic. What had been thought to be reliable OSINT turns out to have been pro-regime news reported as fact by Western media sources.


In fact, Dara'a has not been conquered despite the Syrian Army and Hezbollah's best efforts to take the city behind a significant weeks-long bombardment which included the use of napalm barrel bombs. For all intents and purposes the city of Dara'a has been blasted into rubble, large structures appear to be mere shells of their former selves. 

Dara'a on 07JUN17. Image MEMO/Anadolu Agency)

I would speculate (actually, I expect) that the Dara'a campaign appears to be falling into an Aleppo-like grind where the the Syrian regime's offensive makes no headway resulting in the use of chemical weapons by the al-Assad regime in an attempt to break the stalemate. We all should understand what will result if this does occur as Dara'a lies just 9 miles from the Jordanian border.


Further west, at the Al-Tanf/Al-Walid border crossing, US-led CJTF-OIR forces have pushed forward approximately 45 miles northeast to the desert village of al-Zakf to establish a second base camp. Some patrols have reportedly been operating up to 60 miles north of the Jordanian-Iraqi-Syrian border triangle. On the Iraqi side of the border the Al-Walid crossing was fully secured this past week from Islamic State units by U.S. and Iraqi Army forces, permitting the deeper penetration into Islamic State, and blunting the Syria-Hezbollah advance into this region. 

U.S. HIMARS

The CJTF-OIR forward push was augmented this week with the arrival of at least two U.S.  M142 HIMARS, a highly accurate HIgh Mobility Artillery Rocket System riding on the back of a 6x6 all-terrain vehicle which deployed into Al-Tanf. The introduction of the HIMARS has caused great consternation for the Russians, as well as the Iranians. It places Syrian-Hezbollah and other Iranian-militia troops at risk of devastating strikes should they make further moves into the CJTF-OIR Area of Responsibility (AoR) in southern Syria. HIMARS enables CJTF-OIR forces to reach out and touch the enemy up to 180 miles away.


13 June 2017:  The situation along Syria's southern border has seen dramatic change in the past 24 hours. The city of Dara'a just north of the Jordanian border is now under the control of the Syrian 4th Division and Hezbollah. Syrian anti-regime fighters have reportedly retreated south into Jordan or east towards the CJTF-OIR base at the Al-Tanf/Al-Walid border crossing defended by US, UK, NATO and Jordanian SpecOps troops and air power.

Most other information of the past 48 hours about southern Syria is either disinformation or pure propaganda coming from Russian, Syrian, Iranian or their proxies. Further update coming...

11 June 2017: This past Tuesday, 6 June, coalition aircraft attacked a second convoy of Iranian, Hezbollah and Syrian armored vehicles and troops threatening the CJTF-OIR base at Al-Tanf. The convoy was stopped dead in its tracks, most of it destroyed. It is this region shaded gray in the above map and in detail in the below map where the Syrian war appears most likely, as has been started here previously, to be where a great clash continues to be on a steady simmer. 

On Friday, 9 June, as reported by The New Yorker, Iran-supported Shi'a militias reached the Syrian border from inside Iraq, and this is somewhat reflected in the above map. But the map has to be looked at closely. As you can see the primary route passes through Iraqi Kurdistan or Syrian Kurdistan. This hardly provides Iran clear passage from Iran to Lebanon, yet that is precisely what most media has been claiming, rather prematurely I might add. Iran does not control the major highways from its border to Lebanon.

The current eastern Syria war zone. ISW Graphic.

30 May 2017:
Today, as reported by TASS, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov made the not-so-veiled threat of a possible Russian-US military confrontation in eastern Syria. This is the potential confrontation Eschatology Today has been warning about in this series of Syrian Situation SITREPs. Lavrov accused the US-led coalition of directly infringing on Syrian sovereignty and said
"these issues need to be settled, which is what our military is currently engaged in. 

The Iranian's are buoyed by this open Russian support for the combat operations their forces are engaged in eastern Syria and in northwestern Iraq (Hashd al-Sha'abi Shi'a militia), and now it appears they are seeking to directly engage in combat against the forces of the US-led CJTF-OIR and NATO which joined the Coalition effort recently. Iran informed Russia yesterday during a meeting in Moscow it is ready to double the size of the force it currently has deployed in Syria. The Hashd al-Sha'abi militia is rapidly becoming known as the Iranian Hezbollah of Iraq. This Shi'a Iraqi militia, under direct orders form the IRGC in Tehran will almost certainly now invade eastern Syria. 

The US has been dropping leaflets specifically instructing the Iranian militias and Hezbollah to withdraw their forces from the Syrian border regions on the Golan and Israeli frontier, and from all along the Jordanian border as well as the Iraqi border. The warning states that any movement of these Iranian forces towards CJTF-OIR Coalition and/or NATO forces will be viewed as hostile movements and attacked accordingly. The Iranian directed confrontation with US CJTF-OIR allies, the Kurdish/Arab Syrian Democratic Forces, as well as the New Free Syrian Army is now only a matter of time. The literal fulfillment of Isaiah 17 and Jeremiah 49:23-27 will be the result of this imminent warfare. 

28 May 2017: Al Mayadin (a/k/a Al-Mayadeen) is a small town in eastern Syria's Euphrates River valley. It lies closer to the Iraqi border town of Al-Qaim than it does to the Islamic State's de facto capital of Ar-Raqqa. Just to the north lies Dier ez Zor (a/k/a Dayr az Zawr), one of the focal points in the war against Islamic State. 

CJTF-OIR coalition aircraft are claimed to have stuck Islamic State assets in Al Mayadin on Wednesday, 24 May. Other organizations say the airstrike was by the Syrian Arab Air Force (SAAF). Almost immediately the Syrian regime, their allies in Russia and Iran, and alleged moderate Arab media (Aljazeera) and left-of-center US media (CBS, et. al.) began whining about fourteen alleged civilian deaths as a result of the strike which they blame on the US-led Coalition. 

This is rather telling as all of these media are utterly silent when it comes to civilian deaths due to Russian and Syrian military airstrikes since Russia's intervention in September 2015. Russian airstrikes have been conducted since that time with what various observing groups have said is a "reckless disregard for human life" in Syria. A conservative estimate of civilian death due to Russian airstrikes would be in the neighborhood 5,000 men, women and children. A liberal assessment would be double that number.

Due to the fact that all of Syria and much or Iraq are active war zones, any number of civilian deaths are unavoidable no matter whose bombs are falling. However, attributing those deaths falsely or using them for political expedience is just as abhorrent as the pure evil intent and ethnic genocide being perpetrated by the Syrian regime and their Russian and Iranian allies. The fact is that airstrikes and artillery barrages in this region, both Syrian Regime and their allies and CJTF-OIR are occurring every day, often overlapping one another. Accurate accounting of who, what when is very probably near impossible for any one or group of organizations due to the intensity of the warfare.

The truly big news for this SITREP is that NATO announced that it had joined the US-led CJTF-OIR operations against Islamic State as the strike on Al-Mayadin was being heralded in the media on May 25th. Also the ground war around Raqqa and elsewhere in eastern Syria is entering what may be a final phase that will result in its liberation from and the annihilation of Islamic State forces. We need to prepare ourselves for a series of really horrific news reports when these areas long under IS control are liberated. The depravity of the Islamic State is as bad or worse than anything that's occurred thus far in either Iraq or Syria since 2003.

37 comments:

jmoll106 said...

Thanks Sean, For the most part, if the liberal news is spewing out one thing it's worth looking for the real truth.
On the NATO, G7, Vatican front, I'm thankful POTUS is going to use any climate change/global warming documents to start a warm fire in the W.H. fireplace.

Joe said...

Thank you Sean,
Your analysis of the situation is priceless. Considering that fact, this commentary should be broadcast news. But instead of real journalism we get a liberal pasifier stuck in our mouths. A sure media coup has been underway for several decades, but never do I recall anything this debased.
Your sacrificial military service is very much appreciated. Your continued dedication to speaking the truth is as well.

Appreciate your valued time and thoughts. Please have a very blessed Memorial Day this weekend!!!
Joe

jmoll106 said...

Thanks Sean, Watching intently.

Joe said...

WOW....it sure is looking like we're being challenged. Also, Turkey is getting anxious over their dome on the Lord's Temple Mount. It appears they may try and unsurp Jordan for control.
Can't wait to hear your updates on Isaiah 17 as more is surly coming.

Sean Osborne said...

I have to mention this from time to time, so here it is. Tuck this away for a reminder as time progresses.

In pre-70th Week prophetic fulfillment, and especially Ezekiel 38/39, there is no mention of Jerusalem or Temple Mount in any of it.

There's just the vanquishing of Israel's enemies and associated stage-setting for the events of the 70th Week.

89rscam said...

Sean,

I just came across this...

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/may/30/iranian-backed-forces-amassing-near-us-training-ba/

Hundreds of Iranian-backed militiamen, fighting alongside government troops loyal to Syrian President Bashar Assad, are amassing near a U.S.-training base located near the country’s border with Iraq, the Defense Department confirmed Tuesday.

Pro-Assad fighters supported by Tehran have begun conducting patrols near the southern Syrian town of At Tanf, which is home to a U.S. training camp for moderate Syrian militias battling the Islamic State, said Pentagon spokesman Capt. Jeff Davis.

Maranatha!
Ken B

Sean Osborne said...

Ken,

This is what I've been writing about since SITREP C2-17, with extra emphasis since mid-May.

Here we have in your Washington Times article from yesterday a good report, but one which does not address the inevitable contact between the forces.

There's a Pentagon/NSC plan to rapid deploy 50,000 US troops into Afghanistan to deal with the Taliban if Trump approves. I'm thinking a good portion may be diverted to Jordan, Kuwait and Iraq.

The Coalition is going to be tested.

Anonymous said...

Sean and Ken,

Yes, Ive been watching carefully the same reports that indicate that Iran with its Shia milia groups appears to be making a big miltary gambit play to try to force the establishment of a major supply land route running from Iran, accross Iraq and into Syria. (A report of more depth/detail is appearing at: Prophesy Headlines from Debkha - "Powerful pro-Iran Badr Brigades to enter Syria").

Now I dont have your miltary stratedgy understanding Sean, but from a simple military strength - capability point of view I find this move by the Irainians and co both puzzling and apparently brazenly foolish !. Why ?, For the simple reason that if the USA and allies forces (the "coalition" for short) where permitted to from Washington, I understand that these coalition air strike/drone capabilities alone are able to blunt or destroy any such moves by the Irainian led forces.

That raises the question of do the Irainian and co believe something contrary ?: 1 / Trump - Washington are not prepared to engage the necessary coalition miltary forces needed and - or 2 / is the Russian bear Putin prepared to back up this Irainian and co move with sufficient Russian - Syrian military force, to get the coalition governments/forces to hold off. ????.

What in the Lord's name is actually developing here Sean....

Maranantha

Rob
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Great Grany 5 said...

Sean,

So many emotions right now and the first one is just as strong as I can type it: Distress beyond anything in all of my years here on Planet Earth. No fear but that doesn't mean I am at ease. You are used to a great deal of this type of situation and for which, you were trained for but alas, not me.

My idea of facing this news is go bake a cake, wash the car, scrub the bathroom one more time and make sure that we have plenty of food on hand. But that is just to keep me occupied until I can connect with reality and let the Holy Spirit lead me in a reasonable and appropriate response. Until then, I will also get my special prayer room in order and trust, TRUST that our ABBA FATHER will lead, direct and marshal all of the strength needed along with the leadership.

I came across this quote today and just wanted to share it with you: "Our constitution was made only for a moral and religious people. It is wholly inadequate for the government of any other."
John Adams--1798--Address to Militia of Massachusetts

GG5/SHALOM

Sean Osborne said...

Rob,

I've already answered the question about what is developing in Syria in this series of Syrian SITREP's, particularly in Part IV and Part V.

In terms of Bible prophecy this is the fulfillment of Isaiah 17 and Jeremiah 49:23-27; which will likely be followed by Jeremiah 49:34-39, and that by Psalm 83. This is the "flood" of prophetic fulfillment discussed here for some time now.

Joe said...

It sure is nice to have company...I'm feeling the same way. But with your back ground and stal-wart dedication to scripture and this site, I think many take comfort from your insight. Thanks

Sean Osborne said...

We need to display the patience of the saints.

There are Brethren and non-brethren scoffers who are watching us all the time on how we deal with these events and our faith.

Take comfort from the words of our Lord and Savior.

Sean Osborne said...

GG5,

We are monarchists awaiting the arrival of our King. His arrival is imminent!

jmoll106 said...

I have been sending anything of value ahead.:)

jmoll106 said...

I can see how the enemies of Israel have to go first before construction of the Temple begins. I just finished reading your sitrep titled "Global SITREP D2-15: The Surest Sign of the End of the Age - PART II" and with the amount of labor, it's gonna take some time to build.

Sean Osborne said...

Yes, the first Temple was constructed only after there were no enemies on any of Israel's borders.

It's another past as prologue type that will exist following either Psalm 83 or Ezekiel 38/39.

hartdawg said...

Hey Sean, I know for a fact that I am having problems displaying patients of the Saints. When do we start I'm having a very hard time being patient I just want to get out of here. Do you ever struggle with that?

Sean Osborne said...

Do I struggle with that? Nope, never have, never will, because I know it's not about "me," but rather it's about God the Father's determination to conclude the fullness of gentiles to come in, as Paul wrote by the Spirit in Romans 11.

In fact, I pray to the Lord daily, "Take your time Lord, take Your time!"

Nora said...

„The Spirit and the bride say, "Come!" (Rev 22:17) Perhaps the Church needs a “paradigm shift” and next to watching and waiting we should also ask the Lord regularly and often to come back for us as soon as possible! I believe in that and praying for that every day. (We’re basically asking for “Your kingdom come!” as well.) I understand Sean’s perspective too because there are many people I pray for to be saved. On the other hand it’s okay to “love His appearing” and eagerly waiting and wishing for it to happen as soon as possible imo.

Sean Osborne said...

Just in case there's any confusion... I was referring to Romans 11:25, specifically,

"...blindness in part is happened to Israel until that fullness of the nations (ethnos) be come in." (Paul means Gentiles entered into the body of Christ)

This objective of the Lord supersedes what ever we may want for ourselves with respect to the Laqach Harpazo Rapture.

To put it another way... Only after the last possible soul is saved through Christ's shed blood in this generation will the Father send His Son to Laqach Harpazo Rapture His Holy and Pure Bride (us). Only God the Father can know when this number of souls has reached the completion of its ultimate fullness; He has known it since before Creation.

So, the often expressed notion that "the Lord tarries" is not quite accurate. God the Father is allowing the Holy Spirit to complete His work. This is about trusting in Him to do what He said He will do at the time the Father decides. He is perfection in all things, is He not?

How about we read Romans 8:18-25 to remind ourselves of the 'bigger picture' to be seen here:

"For I consider that the sufferings of this present time are not worthy to be compared with the glory which shall be revealed in us. For the earnest expectation of the creation eagerly waits for the revealing of the sons of God.

For the creation was subjected to futility, not willingly, but because of Him who subjected it in hope; because the creation itself also will be delivered from the bondage of corruption into the glorious liberty of the children of God. For we know that the whole creation groans and labors with birth pangs together until now. Not only that, but we also who have the firstfruits of the Spirit, even we ourselves groan within ourselves, eagerly waiting for the adoption, the redemption of our body.

For we were saved in this hope, but hope that is seen is not hope; for why does one still hope for what he sees? But if we hope for what we do not see, we eagerly wait for it with perseverance.
"

Nora said...

"Only after the last possible soul is saved through Christ's shed blood in this generation will the Father send His Son to Laqach Harpazo Rapture His Holy and Pure Bride (us)."

I agree. That's why I always add "as soon as possible" aka as soon as it fits into the Lord's will and omniscience concerning this matter (or anything else since I’d never ask for anything outside His will).

Sean Osborne said...

It's now confirmed, many times over in fact, that US strike aircraft struck a second convoy of Iranian, Hezbollah and allied militia approaching the CJTF-OIR base at Al-Tanf this past Tuesday, 6JUNE. Several combat vehicles were destroyed and a tank was damaged in this strike.

This is the second such airstrike within the past three weeks on the edge of the CJTF-OIR security zone around Al-Tanf. The zone extends 35 miles in every direction from Al-Tanf.

Expect a new SITREP on Syria to post fairly shortly.

jmoll106 said...

180 miles away, wow, your not going to see or hear it coming until the first ones go off.
It would appear escalation of weapons and desperation will be the end of most of Syria.

Sean Osborne said...

Jmoll,

You're the first to get the point of this update.

Besides the coming major clash in Syria, the type of war (Currently SOLIC or Special Operations Low Intensity Conflict) wahed by the US-led CJTF-OIR forces has now changed dramatically. This change will likely serve as a catalyst in hastening the coming clash, therefore hastening Isaiah's and Jeremiah's prophetic fulfillment in Syria.

Sean Osborne said...

A USN F/A-18E Super Hornet has shot down a Syrian Arab Air Force SU-22 Fitter in northern Syria that bombed CJTF-OIR ally Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) positions west of Raqqa.

The Syrian Army had assaulted SDF positions earlier this morning, but US aircraft halted the Syrian offensive. Two hours later the SU-22 arrived and bombed the SDF, injuring several troops. The US Super Hornet then blew the Fitter out of the sky in an act of self-defense of CJTF-OIR forces.

Iran today also attacked IS forces near Dier Ez-Zour with ballistic missiles fired from western Iran.

jmoll106 said...

This certainly gives the catalyst for prophetic fullfillment. The more desperate the more daring the actions. Thanks for the update.

Sean Osborne said...

As expected, this morning Russian forces issued a warning order that it will target and shoot down any CJTF-OIR aircraft, and strike any CJTF-OIR ground units operating in Syria west of the Euphrates River.

Rhonda said...

The destruction of Damascus draws ever so close as does the breaking of Iran's bow!

Sean Osborne said...

Also, IRGC-QF commander General Qassem Soleimani was phptographed on the Iraq-Syria border with the Fatehmiyoun Brigade, a Shi'a Afghan militia that Iran deployed into Syria earlier this year.

Soleimani's presence in this war zone is a strong indication that the Iran-Lebanon corridor is the highest priority military objective to Ayatollah Khamenei.

All key warnings and indicators for a major and prophetic conflagration in Syria are now present.

Nora said...

Thank you for keeping us updated, the Lord bless you Sean!

Sean Osborne said...

Also worth noting... the F/A-18E Super Hornet flew from the deck of the USS GHW Bush sailed in the eastern Mediterrean Sea. Look at the last stanza of Jeremiah 49:23 about "trouble on the sea."

Any shooting between Russian and CJTF-OIR forces in Syria would automatically put opposing fleets in combat operations.

Do not think for a second that Russian threats will cause our forces to stand down.

Lance M said...

But Sean, the Russians have A carrier, one....I believe we only have 10 or so (true carriers). Not that I'm itching for a fight, but we are the big boy on the block.

Sean Osborne said...

Lance,

Yes, we certainly have the upper hand vs Russia in Syria.

However, the Lord's prophetic word tells us that He will cause all nations to flee as chaff before the wind.

Makes me think that the reason Russia comes back in Ezekiel 38/39 is in part to recoup the severe losses they'll suffer in Syria shortly.

Lance M said...

Great point....it also makes me think of the verse that says "who is like the beast? Who can make war with the beast?". Your post about NATO is dead on, IMO. It is easy to see how such a force could be unknowingly/knowingly unleashed on a post-rapture world.

Great Grany 5 said...

Hoping that all is well in your part of the States and nothing threatening is advancing. Reading more about the might of Russia in Syria and big questions seem to be a muddle right now to me. But this one question I ask because of my gender makeup. Why is it that Russia, considering the military reality that we are being told about, commands so much power and authority with Syria, Iran, and much of the forming hostilities in the ME?

Reading again the pronouncements of the plight of the Syrian people about to spring on them and how in the world can this population expect to be absorbed into any other nation with the mess already existing in Europe. But isn't that part of the equation regarding the "Great Sea" being stirred up by the Four winds of heaven, seeing this in Chapter 7:2 & 3. According to ArtScrolls on Daniel, the Great Sea is the Mediterranean and the four winds of heaven are not from God but are the breaking out of the lower realm of Satan and his demonic hoards.

My question: Am I reading and understanding this correctly and if I am then all of this present upheaval is truly taking place right now and not sometime in the ancient past with the Babylonian Empire. Next part of my logic is pretty obvious; then we are in the very preliminary stages of the Days of the End. Yes, I have been reading and trying to dig my heels into all that you have shared with us here but something is really nagging me and when I get to being nagged, it means I am missing a major point. I would just love to be able to settle that great big nudge and enjoy my promised "peace, joy, love and all of the Blessings of the Holy Spirit. Right now!

GG5/SHALOM (please ABBA Father)

Sean Osborne said...

GG5,

Russia is seriously outgunned in this arena we call Syria.

I would say read Isaiah 17 and Jer. 49:23-27 again, and let not your heart be troubled. He is in total control.

Great Grany 5 said...
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