Global SITREP B8-19: SCALING UP THE WAR

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FINAL UPDATE 16 May 2013: This will be the final update for SITREP B8-19. A lot has taken place in these past two weeks, most of it from Gaza to the Arabian Peninsula. 

However, a question must be posed: Are we in a crisis? The Eschatology Today answer is, no, we're not in a crisis. It is the Islamic Republic of Iran that is in the midst of a serious crisis, and how it attempts to extricate itself from its self-made crisis will determine how severe this crisis will become for the abhorent Twelver regime and whether or not literal fulfillment of Jeremiah's and Isaiah's relative prophecies occur within a relatively short span of time. Remember, Jesus said, "these things must take place, but the end is not yet."

What will take place next is a classified briefing to the members of the U.S. Congress next week regarding what Iran has done this past week, what it has done via its proxies, and what the potential responses will be should further attacks take place. The United States took the leadership role only it can provide by surging significant military power into the Middle East. Even more will move if that becomes necessary and that depends entirely on how foolsih the clerics in Tehran decide to become. They are a seriously apocalyptic-minded lot, so no one's going to hold their breath in the hope they suddenly become peacemongers.

14 May 2019: As the title of this SITREP attests, the situation in the Middle East is being significantly scaled up. The reason for this can be stated in one word: Iran. Take a cold, hard, objective look around the whole of the Middle East and one thing becomes blatantly obvious from the Bible prophecy perspective: none of the ongoing conflicts or areas of military tension have abated one iota. To the bold contrary, the over-riding theme of "wars and rumors of wars" has only increased; scaled up, in every imaginable and even unimaginable way.

There was a very high-level meeting of all the significant players of the US National Security apparatus at CIA HQ Langley last Thursday. Speculation was rampant on what the meeting was about. Now we know, and again, it's a one word answer: Iran. To the mix of American military forces and capabilities being surged into the Middle East in the past week, the meeting also pushed forward the high potential for a 120,000-strong combat force of US soldiers to deploy into CENTCOM build-up of American combat force projection.

This projection of American power clearly focused against the Iranian Twelver regime's regional aspirations of dominance over Sunni Arab nations, but mostly against the State of Israel, has had a curious effect. It has shown how weak in the knees our European NATO allies are. They, meaning nations like the UK and Spain most notably, appear to prefer a path of appeasement towards the apocalypse-minded clerical regime in Tehran rather than stand firm and hold a line drawn in the sand. 

As of yesterday, following a weekend (Sunday morning actually) where Iranian forces clandestinely attacked four oil tankers of the coast of Al-Fujairah port in the UAE, causing significant damage (big holes) to those vessels, but without creating oil spillage or injury to the crews. A prompt US investigation issued a preliminary assessment just yesterday that Iran was responsible for the apparent limpet mine attacks against the four oil tankers. As the U.S. bristled over these attacks, a Spanish frigate sailing as a part of the Lincoln CSG which had just entered the Gulf of Aden, was ordered by its government authority to withdraw itself from the CSG operations. In the UK that government began expressing fears that another Iraq-like war was in the offing. Fear and trepidation are not signs of leadership in the face of clear aggression.

So much, at this point, for the prophecy-based theory circulating that an all-powerful all-EU, without the United States, will be the beast empire military juggernaut of the 70th Week. We would do well to read again the text of Daniel 2; not to mention chapters 7 through 12, to refresh once more about the "Ten Toes" and the rise of the "Little Horn." Prophecy theorems that do not begin with these texts, plus Ezekiel 38:13, will miss the mark, first time, every time.

We have our Lord's assurance that "these things," that is the several signs He gave in the Olivet Discourse, "must take place." We emphasize this a great deal here on Eschatology Today, and it's for good reason. While no one can foretell specifically what will happen in the next day, next week or next month, we can understand the "big picture" that has been given to us in Scripture. Eschatology Today interprets the Lord's prophets, it is not one of them.

9 May 2019: A flight of B-52H Stratorfortresses departed Barksdale AFB in Louisiana yesterday on their deployment to Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar. The "Buffs" were topped off with fuel for their intercontinental transit by KC-10 Extenders flying out of Joint Base McGuire Dix Lakehurst, New Jersey. The "Buffs" are joined in this expedition by the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group which is currently in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea. The Lincoln CSG will probably not enter the Gulf without an extensive US de-mining of those shallow waters.

 

B-52H being refueled over Atlantic by JB-MDL KC-10A 8MAY19.
Image courtesy USAF AMC.

Barksdale AFB B-52H on the tarmac at Al-Udeid AB Qatar late yesterday.
This is real power projection. Image via CENTCOM.

7 May 2019:There's a very good reason why the Netanyahu government has paused operations against the terrorists in Gaza: Iran. Both President Trump and PM/DM Netanyahu are completely aligned in what is about to take place. 

The US/Israel plan of action has been developing for the past few weeks, with only glimpses of its scope hinted at in statements made prior to this past weekend. An interuption was caused by the assassination attempt on an IDF Colonel and another soldier on the Gaza border by a PIJ sniper on Friday. Israel retaliated for this action and resumed heavy rocket fire following the IAF's retaliation strike. Both assassination attempt and high-volume rocket fire were ordered to take place by Iran which hoped the resulting combat would derail the US-Israel action plan. 

Israel did great damage to HAMAS and the PIJ through Saturday and Sunday (4/5 May), and also assassinated the critical HAMAS-Iran money man in very tight quarters on a busy Gaza street in broad daylight with a precision missile strike. Even the terrorists have acknowledged this in a statement early today saying they needed the current respite from combat to lick (heal) their wounds. Netanyahu has told the Israeli people point-blank that the Gaza combat is not over and will be resumed soon.

Standing by on Gaza border...

So what took place about 8 weeks ago? Israel provided to the US the intelligence its Mossad had collected indicating that that Iran was in advanced stages of tasking the IRGC and its proxy forces throughout the region to launch wide-scale attacks on US forces in Syria, Iraq and in the Gulf. In the ensuing week or so the US detected these preparations first-hand for itself. A military response was ordered. 

As background, in March the B-1 bomber group that had deployed to Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar concluded its deployment and returned home to Dyess AB in Texas. This left the Middle East without a combat bomber group in the CENTCOM CJTF-OIR AOR. The announced deployment of a new bomber group (either B-52 or B-1, or a mix of both) fills this void. Concurrent with the new bomber group deployment the US has also rerouted the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group (Lincoln CSG) to the the Gulf and operations within 5th Fleet. These two combined are part of the "unrelenting force" promised to Iran by NSA Bolton should Iran follow through on its attacks.

Updates as they occur. This situation should develop rapidly over the next day or so, and there is sporadic firing along the Gaza border as you read this.

5 May 2019: The Eschatology Today expectation forecast of the previous B7-19 SITREP hit the proverbial nail on its head - the Twelver regime of Iran has commanded its Gaza proxies to launch a rocket war (500+ and counting) against the civilians of southern and central Israel just as Israel prepares to celebrate its 71st anniversary of modern-day existence. 

This time there is a mounting death toll in Israel, and the Israeli response has all appearances of being a more lethal and expanded or upscaled set of military actions. The IDF even struck and destroyed a mosque adjacent to the beach area of al-Shati (NW of Gaza city) that the PIJ was using as a Command and Control (C2) facility. 

Israel has also begun targeted assassinations of the HAMAS and PIJ leadership in Gaza. Israel will also go after this leadership cadre in Beirut, Lebanon and wherever else they may hole themselves. No quarter is to be given, vehicular movement is also no guarantee of avoiding death from above as HAMAS' senior field commander Hamed Hamdan el-Hadary just learned while driving his Toyota. Before his death this morning El-Hadary was the Iran-to-Gaza money transfer official for HAMAS and the PIJ according to IDF sources.

Hamed Hamdan el-Hadary's Toyota destroyed in IAF precision missile strike

Israel has reinforced the IDF envelope around Gaza with the deployment of an additional armored brigade. The closure envelope announced by PM/DM Netanyahu extends outwards from Gaza by 40km (25 miles). Netanyahu and his Security Cabinet has also issued the order this morning ti intensify the IAF airstrikes in Gaza as well as a general mobilization of deploying ground forces. It is a near certainty the IDF inject itself into Gaza at some point. Whether these insertions are hit-n-run strikes are rocket launch sites or a campaign to seize territory remains to be seen. 

Going Forward: Eschaology Today's focus will be whether or not this round of warfare becomes a fulfillment of Isaiah 11:14 and Ezekiel 28:24-26 as the culmination of the Psalm 83 prophecy, meaning an armed conflict which begins in Gaza but comes to involve Lebanon, Jordan, Sinai, Syria and Iran. Ongoing rapid and fluid developments wil be covered in the next update.