April 22, 2026: We now know that President Trump's unilateral extension of the ceasefire with the Iranian Twelver regime is due to the fact that the regime is in a fractured and highly unstable political state. The IRGC appears to be acting since yesterday as the de facto power of the government in ordering attacks by IRCG fast attack craft on M/Vs in the Strait of Hormuz and east of it from the Iranian Port of Chabahar into the Gulf of Oman. The lack of a U.S. response thus far to the serious attacks gives weight to what Pentagon sources say will come next.
Multiple sources are reporting that officials in the Pentagon are strongly indicating that a resumption of the war is imminent. However, the resumption of combat operations will far surpass the power and violence rained down upon Iran since the initiation of hostilities on February 28. Three U.S. Navy supercarrier CSGs are now in the CENTCOM AOR (Lincoln, Ford and G.H.W. Bush) plus several thousand U.S. Marines, Airborne and Special Operations forces plus the inherent and significant increase of combat airpower. Israeli forces are also primed to resume their Operation Roaring Lion combat operations
The meaning here is that Trump's indefinite ceasefire probably does not indicate a long-term cessation but a finite extension of potentially very short duration in order to give the Twelver political echelon a chance to impose control over the IRGC.
24 April 2026: The U.S.-Iranian Twelver "negotiations" in Pakistan have taken a big hit because hardliners in the Ayatollah's inner circle and the IRGC have forced (former) lead negotiator Mohammed Bagher Ghalibaf to resign. Ghalibaf was also severely reprimanded by the inner circle over inclusion of the nuclear issue in negotiations with the US. His participation is likely the reason any progress was made in previous rounds. Regime hardliners and the Ayatollah's inner circle have clearly won the internal power struggle.
With Twelver hardliners in control there's no chance for a successful outcome, which explains why Vice President Vance has cancelled his plans to travel. President Trump now has his response from Tehran.
UPDATE 25 April 2026: Iranian Twelver envoy Araghchi met with his Islamic brothers in Pakistan and delivered Tehran's "comprehensive response" to Trump's demands. He has since departed for chats in Muscat and Moscow. Meanwhile, Trump's envoys Witkoff and Kushner are still hours away from landing in Islamabad. Once arrived they'll receive the Twelver response - which is, essentially, there can be no further negotiations with the U.S., there is no nuclear issue, the SoH will remain closed and the U.S. and Israel owe the Twelver regime billions in war reparations. To say at this point that Trump has not been played like a fiddle by the Twelver regime would be a massive understatement. Trump's reaction is sure to be epic.
To be continued...




