Sunday, June 16, 2019

Global SITREP C1-19: Potential for War in Strait of Hormuz

Marine Transport (M/T) ship on Fire following Iranian limpet mine attack
Location of the attacks
UPDATED Below 16 June 2019: The Iranian limpet mine attacks on two merchant vessel transports (MV Front Altair and MV Kokuka Courageous) off Iran's southern coast and in the northernmost point of the Gulf of Oman this past week were covertly observed by several U.S. reconnaissance aircaft. A video of that surveillance was declassified and released to the world by USCENTCOM. Iranian forces then launched an SA-7 missile at one of the US aircraft, yet the SAM missed its target by about 1km. Nevertheless, this was an act of war by Iran in a continuing series of attacks against the U.S. and our Middle East allies, as well as international commerce in international waters and airspace.


Screen capture of CENTCOM video of IRGC-N removing unexploed
limpet mine from the hull of the M/T Kokuka Courageous.
This SITREP was delayed until a majority of of factual information could be corroborated. Corroboration takes a little time. As a direct result of these attacks the UK MoD announced the deployment of at least 100 Royal Marines to the region to add to the currently deployed forces tasked with safeguarding marine traffic from additional attacks, or to respond if and when new attacks occur.
The US released this much clearer full color image on Monday, 17 June.
Long-time readers will recognize a staple of Eschatology Today's "interpretative theory" of Jeremiah 49:33-39, originally posted in September 2010. What we have in the summer of 2019 is this theory becoming a very strong candidate for imminent, literal fulfillment. As you can read in the link to the original posting, this interpretive theory is about a coalition of nations coming against Iran from all directions. The prophet Jeremiah prophesied that the Lord would cause "Elam" (Iran) to be dismayed; that He would bring a sword after them. There is zero ambiguity in that the sword is a reference to direct military action.

In fact, this is exactly what the United States and our closest allies are currently engaged in. These allies are fully engaged building the case that Iran is a threat to international peace and the security of international commerce in the Strait of Hormuz, the Gulf of Oman, the Arabian Sea, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Red Sea (image below). All of these straits and sea lanes are known as choke points where the flow of international commerce could be shut down by military actions, such as been seen in limpet mine attacks and missile attacks in the last few years. The series of US DoD images seen in this SITREP are a key part of this effort; they go hand-in-hand with the American pledge that Iran will not be permitted to effect such a stangulation of global commerce. Nor will Iran be permitted to possess a nuclear weapon.


Choke Points of international commerce around the eastern periphery of Israel.
If disruptions were to occur to petroleum products trans-shipments around the eastern periphery of Israel, then consider how much more important the oil and natural gas fields under Israeli, Greek Cypriot and Greek control in the eastern Mediterranean Sea could become. Exactly how secure are the land-based pipelines for these commodities where they must cross active war zones in Iraq and Syria? These are factors in the overal security and supply-side jitters the international community, particularly Europe, are experiencing at this time.

There will also be an additional 1,000 or so US troops heading to the Middle East. These troops are said to be primarily intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) and Force Protection (FP) troops. These are also a match for the 1,000 or so UK troops earmarked for a rapid Middle East deployment. French, Spanish, Australian and New Zealand forces are already in-theater along with smaller contingents from several other allies. NATO is in the Middle East in an ever increasing footprint as well.


US Navy MQ-4C Triton


Approximate location of the MQ-4C Triton shootdown.

UPDATE 20 June 2019:
Multiple reports this morning stating the IRGC fired a Surface-to Air Missile (SAM) from Iranian territory (Hormozgan Province) at a very large, unarmed American UAV flying in international air space over the Strait of Hormuz. The UAV is reported to have been shot down. Given the specific maritime mission of the drone over the Strait of Hormuz, Eschatology Today assesses the downed UAV to have been the U.S. Navy MQ-4C Triton. This act of war massively increases the potential for direct American military action against the IRGC, an already designated foreign terrorist organization. The seriousness of this is found in that US CENTCOM has not released an official public statement, indicating they're standing by for a higher headquarters directive (POTUS and/or JCoS).


26 comments:

jmoll106 said...

Sean,
It would appear were even closer to
Your B9-19 sitrep about the "four winds" and it's designation of God using a coalition of nations.
Here's a reminder for everyone...
"Some may recognize that reference from Jeremiah 49:36. Eschatology Today believes it is literal, and those "winds" while primarily being American power the Lord could bring down on Iran, also is a coalition of nations who could serve as a force multiplier."
Now the saints pray and and continue to watch....


Moin said...

This can easily set the whole Middle-East on fire in which Israel will directly be involved. Will this lead to the Ezekiel 38-39 war?

Jonathan said...

This is TOTALLY not being covered properly by the media, or, at least not extensively as it should. These events could be a prelude to war (although I imagine it on a smaller scale than previous engagements... but than again, war has a tendency to escalate).

Please, Sean, continue to keep us up to date. And thanks as always.

Rhonda said...

Iran’s destruction is surely coming soon.

hartdawg said...

You, Bill Salus and David Reagan are the only ones that I know of who teach on the prophecy against Elam....or at least as a separate future prophecy. Everyone else I know of lumps this one, Isaiah 17 and psalm 83, if they even consider it future, into either Gog/Magog, the tribulation or armeggedon. If we're as close to the 70th week as I suspect, then these prophecies have got to start really soon and occur in rapid succession

Great Grany 5 said...


Sean,

I guess waiting to realize the outcome isn't near as easy now as it was, say 25 years ago. But while we are all waiting, time for some very strong praying should be the requisite of the day. Hope no one forgets that we are Seated IN Jesus Christ as the right Hand of God Almighty and the real authority/power of just what that means.

GG5/SHALOM,SHALOM

Sean Osborne said...

Thanks jmoll106!

Sean Osborne said...

Everything going on now and in the immediate future is leading to Ezekiel 38/39...which leads to Israel's 70th week of 7 years.

Sean Osborne said...

Thanks Jonathan, and I also apologize for the delay in getting several comments posted. There was an incorrect setting that has been remedied.

Sean Osborne said...

Yup, and this is why the rapid succession of fulfillments is often referred to here as a "flood" or series of "dominoes."

"Morton Salt" if you recall an old posting here. When it rains, it pours.

Sean Osborne said...

GG5,

Now that we're so much closer we "see" things so much more clearly. The Book of Daniel has been unsealed; it's clearly understood at the late hour.

And in the twinkling of an eye... our warp drive into Heaven will..

Sean Osborne said...

The armed forces of Israel are running all this week a live action scenario which is all but identical to that prophesied by Asaph in Psalm 83. The entire IAF fleet of aircraft is airborne right now.

Lori said...

Wow, it seems things are heating up. Thank you for your integrity in reporting, Sean.

~Lori

Jonathan said...

Not a problem, Sean (about the delay in my post). I'm glued to this situation right now. Watching and waiting...

jmoll106 said...

Sean,
I really appreciate the link to the previous sitreps.
I kept wondering if this already occured in the past. I was able to find the place where you covered that specific detail. Thanks I'll pur part of quote below.

"Since Before Christ dates count downward, the gap of time between these years places the prophetic "Judgment on Elam" as being given to Jeremiah by the Lord approximately 44 years after the Assyrian conquest of Elam, and thus providing a strong context for latter days fulfillment."

Jonathan said...

I just read an article from the "Stamford Advocate" (not sure how reliable it is) that included the following:

"Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has privately delivered warnings intended for Iranian leaders that any attack by Tehran or its proxies resulting in the death of even one American service member will generate a military counterattack, U.S. officials said."

Italics are mine. That is a VERY small tripwire.

Sean Osborne said...

We (the US) are not seeking war with Iran, but will not shrink from defending our forces, allies or interests.

One of our primary interests to is prevent Iran from acquiring nuke weapons.

Another is ensuring freedom of navigation and commerce in the region.

Another is security in the whole region.

Iranian actions counter to these increases the potential for the undesired to occur.

Jonathan said...

I think you encapsulated that perfectly with what you just posted, Sean.

Sean Osborne said...

On the other hand, The IRGC, under the direct control of the Iranian Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, has this morning engaged in an act of war in shooting down an American military drone conducting surveillance in international airspace over the Strait of Hormuz.

Facts are being determined at this time...

Sean Osborne said...

US CENTCOM moments ago:

"CENTCOM confirms that a U.S. Navy drone was shot down by an Iranian surface-to-air missile system while operating in international airspace over the Strait of Hormuz at approximately 11:35 p.m. GMT on June 19, 2019... Iranian reports that the drone was in Iranian airspace are false."

Sean Osborne said...

Now word that the US airborne asset was an older sister and precursor of the MQ-4C Triton known as the BAMS-D.

Sean Osborne said...

How about that... the map I created this morning to illustrate the approximate location of the shootdown is virtually identical to the map the DoD released a short while ago.

Nice.

Great Grany 5 said...

Sean,

Thank you for your continued dedication to keeping us all alert to the real events taking place in the Epicenter of World History. Sometimes I get anxious to get it going and yet, anxiousness is not the answer to any of our processes. I grew up on great farm land in Iowa and once so excited that I rushed my brother to get the cow milked before he did and it wasn't a cow at all. That bull wasn't impressed with my attention and I realized very quickly my mistake.

Have a great weekend and a peaceful one at that.

GG5/SHALOM,SHALOM

Jonathan said...

I'm suffering Eschatology Today withdraws... would really like to know what you think is coming in the days and weeks ahead after Trump declined to strike Iran immediately, Sean.

I personally don't think this is over by a long shot.

Sean Osborne said...

Jonathan... but we did strike Iran immediately, exactly as had been planned for a very long time. See the new SITREP for details Witdrawal symptoms cured!

Nick Kurian said...

Hi Sean,

Israel’s F-35s Join Massive Drill Simulating War with Hezbollah, Gaza??