Global SITREP C1-19: Potential for War in Strait of Hormuz

Marine Transport (M/T) ship on Fire following Iranian limpet mine attack

Location of the attacks

UPDATED Below 16 June 2019: The Iranian limpet mine attacks on two merchant vessel transports (MV Front Altair and MV Kokuka Courageous) off Iran's southern coast and in the northernmost point of the Gulf of Oman this past week were covertly observed by several U.S. reconnaissance aircaft. A video of that surveillance was declassified and released to the world by USCENTCOM. Iranian forces then launched an SA-7 missile at one of the US aircraft, yet the SAM missed its target by about 1km. Nevertheless, this was an act of war by Iran in a continuing series of attacks against the U.S. and our Middle East allies, as well as international commerce in international waters and airspace.

Screen capture of CENTCOM video of IRGC-N removing unexploed
limpet mine from the hull of the M/T Kokuka Courageous.

This SITREP was delayed until a majority of of factual information could be corroborated. Corroboration takes a little time. As a direct result of these attacks the UK MoD announced the deployment of at least 100 Royal Marines to the region to add to the currently deployed forces tasked with safeguarding marine traffic from additional attacks, or to respond if and when new attacks occur.

The US released this much clearer full color image on Monday, 17 June.

Long-time readers will recognize a staple of Eschatology Today's "interpretative theory" of Jeremiah 49:33-39, originally posted in September 2010. What we have in the summer of 2019 is this theory becoming a very strong candidate for imminent, literal fulfillment. As you can read in the link to the original posting, this interpretive theory is about a coalition of nations coming against Iran from all directions. The prophet Jeremiah prophesied that the Lord would cause "Elam" (Iran) to be dismayed; that He would bring a sword after them. There is zero ambiguity in that the sword is a reference to direct military action.

In fact, this is exactly what the United States and our closest allies are currently engaged in. These allies are fully engaged building the case that Iran is a threat to international peace and the security of international commerce in the Strait of Hormuz, the Gulf of Oman, the Arabian Sea, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Red Sea (image below). All of these straits and sea lanes are known as choke points where the flow of international commerce could be shut down by military actions, such as been seen in limpet mine attacks and missile attacks in the last few years. The series of US DoD images seen in this SITREP are a key part of this effort; they go hand-in-hand with the American pledge that Iran will not be permitted to effect such a stangulation of global commerce. Nor will Iran be permitted to possess a nuclear weapon.

Choke Points of international commerce around the eastern periphery of Israel.

If disruptions were to occur to petroleum products trans-shipments around the eastern periphery of Israel, then consider how much more important the oil and natural gas fields under Israeli, Greek Cypriot and Greek control in the eastern Mediterranean Sea could become. Exactly how secure are the land-based pipelines for these commodities where they must cross active war zones in Iraq and Syria? These are factors in the overal security and supply-side jitters the international community, particularly Europe, are experiencing at this time.

There will also be an additional 1,000 or so US troops heading to the Middle East. These troops are said to be primarily intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) and Force Protection (FP) troops. These are also a match for the 1,000 or so UK troops earmarked for a rapid Middle East deployment. French, Spanish, Australian and New Zealand forces are already in-theater along with smaller contingents from several other allies. NATO is in the Middle East in an ever increasing footprint as well.

US Navy MQ-4C Triton

Approximate location of the MQ-4C Triton shootdown.

UPDATE 20 June 2019: Multiple reports this morning stating the IRGC fired a Surface-to Air Missile (SAM) from Iranian territory (Hormozgan Province) at a very large, unarmed American UAV flying in international air space over the Strait of Hormuz. The UAV is reported to have been shot down. Given the specific maritime mission of the drone over the Strait of Hormuz, Eschatology Today assesses the downed UAV to have been the U.S. Navy MQ-4C Triton. This act of war massively increases the potential for direct American military action against the IRGC, an already designated foreign terrorist organization. The seriousness of this is found in that US CENTCOM has not released an official public statement, indicating they're standing by for a higher headquarters directive (POTUS and/or JCoS).