Global SITREP D5-23: A Greater MidEast War Part IV

Bab al-Mandab Chokepoint

22 December 2023: It is no accident that three of the world's most important maritime choke points are in the Middle East: the Suez Canal, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Bab al-Mandab. And just as obviously this has never been lost in the mindset of the Shi'a Twelver Regime in Tehran. Close one and global economic disruption is guaranteed, close two, as the Twelver's regularly exercise, and war is assured to reopen them. 

With the effective shutdown of the Bab al-Mandab, there's little maritime traffic transiting the Suez. Effectively the Houthi's of Yemen have shut down two of these three critical chokepoints making military action by the West assured to reopen the Bab al-Mandab by force. At least 20 nations have signed on, with others on-standby or in supporting roles. And everyone knows who has pulled the strings to make this situation a reality - it is straight from the Twelver's apocalypse playbook, so do not expect the Islamic Republic to dodge out of this unscathed. Oh, and by the way, they're still working on installing working nuclear weapons into their missile force arsenal.

IDF Ready to roll in the North

This evening in northern Israel 19-year old Sergeant Amit Zod Hiv was killed during activity following rocket launches by Hezbollah, and another IDF soldier was seriously injured. Two other Israelis were hospitalized in in yesterdays rocket barrages. It is not believed that the IDF will hold its iron horses back much longer, all though the IAF and IDF artillery have met the increased Hezbollah rocket fire with intensive counter fires. Again, it is Iran's Twelvers and their vision of an apocalyptic conflagration that is the common denominator in all of this, always has been.

Global SITREP C1-19: Potential for War in Strait of Hormuz

Marine Transport (M/T) ship on Fire following Iranian limpet mine attack

Location of the attacks

UPDATED Below 16 June 2019: The Iranian limpet mine attacks on two merchant vessel transports (MV Front Altair and MV Kokuka Courageous) off Iran's southern coast and in the northernmost point of the Gulf of Oman this past week were covertly observed by several U.S. reconnaissance aircaft. A video of that surveillance was declassified and released to the world by USCENTCOM. Iranian forces then launched an SA-7 missile at one of the US aircraft, yet the SAM missed its target by about 1km. Nevertheless, this was an act of war by Iran in a continuing series of attacks against the U.S. and our Middle East allies, as well as international commerce in international waters and airspace.

Screen capture of CENTCOM video of IRGC-N removing unexploed
limpet mine from the hull of the M/T Kokuka Courageous.

This SITREP was delayed until a majority of of factual information could be corroborated. Corroboration takes a little time. As a direct result of these attacks the UK MoD announced the deployment of at least 100 Royal Marines to the region to add to the currently deployed forces tasked with safeguarding marine traffic from additional attacks, or to respond if and when new attacks occur.

The US released this much clearer full color image on Monday, 17 June.

Long-time readers will recognize a staple of Eschatology Today's "interpretative theory" of Jeremiah 49:33-39, originally posted in September 2010. What we have in the summer of 2019 is this theory becoming a very strong candidate for imminent, literal fulfillment. As you can read in the link to the original posting, this interpretive theory is about a coalition of nations coming against Iran from all directions. The prophet Jeremiah prophesied that the Lord would cause "Elam" (Iran) to be dismayed; that He would bring a sword after them. There is zero ambiguity in that the sword is a reference to direct military action.

In fact, this is exactly what the United States and our closest allies are currently engaged in. These allies are fully engaged building the case that Iran is a threat to international peace and the security of international commerce in the Strait of Hormuz, the Gulf of Oman, the Arabian Sea, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Red Sea (image below). All of these straits and sea lanes are known as choke points where the flow of international commerce could be shut down by military actions, such as been seen in limpet mine attacks and missile attacks in the last few years. The series of US DoD images seen in this SITREP are a key part of this effort; they go hand-in-hand with the American pledge that Iran will not be permitted to effect such a stangulation of global commerce. Nor will Iran be permitted to possess a nuclear weapon.

Choke Points of international commerce around the eastern periphery of Israel.

If disruptions were to occur to petroleum products trans-shipments around the eastern periphery of Israel, then consider how much more important the oil and natural gas fields under Israeli, Greek Cypriot and Greek control in the eastern Mediterranean Sea could become. Exactly how secure are the land-based pipelines for these commodities where they must cross active war zones in Iraq and Syria? These are factors in the overal security and supply-side jitters the international community, particularly Europe, are experiencing at this time.

There will also be an additional 1,000 or so US troops heading to the Middle East. These troops are said to be primarily intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) and Force Protection (FP) troops. These are also a match for the 1,000 or so UK troops earmarked for a rapid Middle East deployment. French, Spanish, Australian and New Zealand forces are already in-theater along with smaller contingents from several other allies. NATO is in the Middle East in an ever increasing footprint as well.

US Navy MQ-4C Triton

Approximate location of the MQ-4C Triton shootdown.

UPDATE 20 June 2019: Multiple reports this morning stating the IRGC fired a Surface-to Air Missile (SAM) from Iranian territory (Hormozgan Province) at a very large, unarmed American UAV flying in international air space over the Strait of Hormuz. The UAV is reported to have been shot down. Given the specific maritime mission of the drone over the Strait of Hormuz, Eschatology Today assesses the downed UAV to have been the U.S. Navy MQ-4C Triton. This act of war massively increases the potential for direct American military action against the IRGC, an already designated foreign terrorist organization. The seriousness of this is found in that US CENTCOM has not released an official public statement, indicating they're standing by for a higher headquarters directive (POTUS and/or JCoS).

Iran Hijacks by Armed Force Merchant Vessel Maersk Tigris

UPDATE 1 May 2015: U.S. National Military Command Authority has directed that all United States-flagged ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz will be escorted by elements of the U.S. 5th Fleet. This directive is immediate and of indefinite duration.  As of 06:30 Zulu (GMT) this morning the Maersk Tigris remains at anchor in the same position indicated on the map above. It's unlawful seizure on the high seas indicates an inherent weakness within the Iranian regime. 72 hours after the seizure of Maersk Tigris and the view appears to be that Iran has both overreached its military capabilities and bitten off more than it can chew. As a result Iran is strategically and literally situated between Iraq and a hard place.  It can either opt for open hostilities or remain pinned in its corner.

29 April 2015: I have created the above map from maritime tracking data which was current as of 5 hours ago (2:45 PM EDT). This track shows the Maersk Tigris was just emerging from the inbound shipping channel of the Strait of Hormuz, and was heading for its next port call at Jebel Ali, UAE when IRGC Naval forces intercepted, fired upon, hijacked on the high seas and then forced the ship's captain to take a northerly course out of Omani territorial waters and into Iranian territorial waters. This ship is now at anchor just off the eastern end of Qeshm Island, and due south of port Bandar Abbas. This action is nothing less than armed piracy on the high seas. 

28 April 2015: In the Persian Gulf Strait of Hormuz IRGC Navy forces have fired upon and attempted to seize the MV Maersk Tigris, a 52,000-ton merchant vessel operating under the Marshall Islands flag. Pentagon sources say there are no US citizens on board the vessel. IRGC Naval forces are reportedly attempting to take the merchant vessel into port Bandar Abbas, the home port of IRGC naval forces.

US aircraft and the guided missile destroyer USS Farragut (DDG-99) are in the process of responding the MV Maersk Tigris distress calls. As of 11:35 EDT (18 minutes) ago a maritime website reported that the Maersk Tigris had suddenly changed course in the direction of port Jebel Ali in the UAE. It is also reported that armed IRGC naval personnel might be onboard the Maersk Tigris.

Global SITREP B5-15: More on Jeremiah 49:34-39

Final Update 30 March 2015: At least I hope this will be the final update to this SITREP. However, it may be the most important. It has been my assessment for many years that Iran has at least one, possibly more, working nuclear weapons. I also have always maintained that North Korean nuclear tests have been de facto Iranian nuclear tests.

Now comes information posted today from a respected military intelligence report which suggests exactly that, but with a twist. De facto Iranian nuclear tests have occurred in North Korea, and so is their assembly and storage site located in North Korea. According to the mil intel report two and a half years ago (October 2012) Iran began stationing IRGC troops and technicians at a base in North Korea and very near the Chinese border. Their dual purpose is to work on missiles and nuclear weapons assembly. This deployment followed by one month the signing of a technical cooperation pact between the DPRK and Iran.

With the reported key detail of the framework agreement (scheduled to be announced tomorrow) between the P5+1 and Iran holding that there is the "safeguard" of a one-year warning to a breakaway effort by Iran to produce a nuclear weapon by IAEA monitoring of Iran's centrifuges in Iran, what good does that do if Iran's military nuclear effort is based in North Korea, and in nuclear terms, a "stone's throw" from the Chinese border?

Not only is the alleged P5+1-Iran agreement worse than anyone, including Bibi Netanyahu, believed just 4 weeks ago, but it's essentially a mega-farce in continuing parade of mega-farces. Warm and fuzzies for everyone!


21 March 2015:  Are there any indications within Bible prophecy of a nuclear-armed Iran?  If you find one please let me know immediately.  Until that time, and excepting only Ezekiel 38/39, the only 'last days' prophecy there is regarding Iran is the subject of this and numerous other posts to Eschatology Today: Jeremiah 49:34-39.  The prophecy is about a very violent preemptive military neutering of Iran, and a conflict in which Iran's enemies end up subduing the regime to its complete destruction. And it all begins in that part of modern-day Iran where its nuclear infrastructure in concentrated. Historically, biblical Elam had ceased to exist as a nation over five hundred years prior to Jeremiah receiving this prophecy from God circa 600 BC. This leave no doubt that Jeremiah's prophecy is one whose fulfillment was appointed for these 'last days.'

It should therefore come as no surprise to any student of Bible prophecy that the much heralded P5+1 (EU/E3+3) nuclear negotiations with Iran are on the verge of collapse just days prior to the March 31 deadline. The collapse is due as much to the Iranian regime's rejection of the conditions being imposed by the P5+1 as it is due to the European partners rejection of major aspects of the "deal" negotiated by U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry.  The long and the short of these negotiations are that the Iranian regime has played both Obama and Kerry as fools, and which is something the European partners want no part of such absurdity as they know all too well the end result of baseless negotiations with a totalitarian dictatorship bent on imposing their ideology upon the rest of the world.

So, what we're left with is our faith in the prophetic word of God and knowing that its fulfillment is near. Very near indeed.


11 March 2015: Did anyone notice how Iran responded by PM Netanyahu's speech to the U.S. Congress? I am absolutely certain some of you did notice. For those that did not, and for those who don't fully grasp the significance of the Iranian response, this update is for you!

Exactly one week after PM Netanyahu's speech the Iranian Assembly of Experts elected the notorious Hojjatieh Twelver Ayatollah Mohammed-Taqi Mesbah Yazdi. Ayatollah Yazdi is the Iranian cleric who brought Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to power in Iran. Ayatollah Mesbah-Yazdi managed to fall off, or was deliberately and politically knocked off of the top echelon of the clerical elite in Iran during 2013. A ruse during nuclear negotiations, no doubt. He was then summarily dismissed by most intelligence agencies as having little or no influence in any future decision to replace Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei.

Here is an example of that type of intelligence dismissal of Ayatollah Yazdi that was published by Israel's Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center on July 8, 2013:

"The erosion of Mesbah Yazdi’s status may be temporary and it is quite implausible that he will lose all of his political and religious influence. It may, however, undermine his ability to play a central, influential role in future political struggles, particularly the succession struggle that will likely emerge after the death of the current Supreme Leader."

The Israeli's could not possibly have forecast a more erroneous intelligence assessment, as he was down but by no means out of the picture. Particularly the big picture which will remain in flux until early 2016.

A re-assessment on exactly what is going on within Iran's powerful 86-member Assembly of Experts is in progress. At present it appears as if Ayatollah Mohammed Taqi Mesbah-Yazdi (80), and Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati have jointly managed to get a majority of votes to elect the similarly named Ayatollah Mohammed Yazdi (83) to the leadership position and send the body as a whole on a lurch to the stridently fundamentalist side of Iranian politics. It remains to be seen who may yet become the next Supreme leader of Iran.

6 March 2005: As even the main stream media in the Middle East is now acknowledging, the specific content and context of PM Netanyahu's speech to the U.S. Congress has received open and unambiguous approval and support from the Saudi Arabian government, proving what I wrote recently of the military cooperation between them in the ongoing planning for a strike against Iranian nuclear targets is nothing less than a cold hard fact.

So incensed are the Saudi's with Obama's Iranian agenda that one Saudi newspaper columnist said Obama was the worst US President in history; another citing Netanyahu's axiom that when it comes to Iran and the Islamic State, "the enemy of your enemy is your enemy" had particular resonance in the government halls of Riyadh. The Saudi's are keenly aware of Iranian encirclement of their kingdom - from across the waters of the gulf to Yemen in the south where Shi'a Houthi rebels have taken control of the county with Iranian direct support.

5 March 2015: With real-world events having once again fixed our gaze and our diligent study upon the prophecy of Jeremiah (Yirme'Yahu) 49:34-39. Through continuing study the Lord has continued to reveal new insights that I feel I would be remiss as a watchman to omit from mentioning.

Many are fearful to the point of hand-wringing angst that should additional sanctions be applied or Iranian nuclear sites be attacked by outside forces one of the first things Iran would do in response would be to militarily shut down the Strait of Hormuz to the flow of global commerce, especially crude oil.

Here's where reading Jeremiah 49:34-39 causes one to look critically at what the Lord has foretold.  Specifically, how could the Islamic Republic follow through on its often repeated threat to close down the Strait of Hormuz given what our Omnipotent God has declared through His prophet? 

How does Iran shut down this critical waterway when God has destroyed the crown jewel of Iranian military power? How does the uber braggadocian Iranian regime  make good on its threats when God has caused them to be chathath (to be shattered, dismayed, broken) before their enemies? Notice carefully that there is more than one enemy in the context here. Through Jeremiah the Lord has promised "I will send the sword after them, til I have consumed them."  

The world which has no regard for and no interest in the prophetic declarations of the God of Israel spends its time worrying, and fretting, and fearing that which ought not be. That kind of activity has no place here. Unlike others who worry needlessly and express fear over things they have no control over, Christians empowered by the Holy Spirit are in an automatic "In God We Trust" mode day in and day out.