FINAL UPDATE 20 March 2014: For all intents and purposes the Crimean Crisis is now over. The Russian Federation won with a military invasion, but without resorting to full-scale combat. Ukrainian forces are retreating out of Crimea which is now the de facto sovereign territory of the Russian Federation. We'll now watch for Putin's gaze to settle upon the next parcel of post-Soviet territorial reconstitution.
18 March 2014: The Russian annexation of Crimea is now a cold, hard fact that will not be undone without war in Europe on a scale not seen since World War II. Russia, in the person of President Vladimir Putin, has thumbed his nose at the US/EU and NATO and declared his intent to wage war against us in defense of Russian interests. For this declaration Putin received a standing ovation by the members of the Russian Parliament. A further Russian military invasion of additional territory in southern and eastern Ukraine may very well follow in the coming hours.
With the confirmed death of one Ukrainian officer and the severe wounding of another today at their base in Simferopol, the capital of Crimea, the remainder of Ukrainian troops are now in receipt of their rules of engagement as authorized by Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk. That authorization is to "use weapons to defend and protect the lives of Ukrainian servicemen." Russian President Vladimir Putin wanted this war, now it looks like he has achieved it.
14 March 2014: The above map has been borrowed from a FoxNews.com report published yesterday. It correctly illustrates four indisputable facts-on-the-ground with which Russia must deal forcibly to overcome should the anticipated annexation of Crimea move forward on Sunday and Monday next week.
18 March 2014: The Russian annexation of Crimea is now a cold, hard fact that will not be undone without war in Europe on a scale not seen since World War II. Russia, in the person of President Vladimir Putin, has thumbed his nose at the US/EU and NATO and declared his intent to wage war against us in defense of Russian interests. For this declaration Putin received a standing ovation by the members of the Russian Parliament. A further Russian military invasion of additional territory in southern and eastern Ukraine may very well follow in the coming hours.
With the confirmed death of one Ukrainian officer and the severe wounding of another today at their base in Simferopol, the capital of Crimea, the remainder of Ukrainian troops are now in receipt of their rules of engagement as authorized by Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk. That authorization is to "use weapons to defend and protect the lives of Ukrainian servicemen." Russian President Vladimir Putin wanted this war, now it looks like he has achieved it.
14 March 2014: The above map has been borrowed from a FoxNews.com report published yesterday. It correctly illustrates four indisputable facts-on-the-ground with which Russia must deal forcibly to overcome should the anticipated annexation of Crimea move forward on Sunday and Monday next week.
The first indisputable fact is that a considerable amount of Ukrainian and Russian armor face each other across 25 miles of no-mans land along the only two overland routes between pro-Russia Crimea and pro-Ukraine Kherson Oblast. Ukrainian forces have enough combat firepower at these two choke points to hold their ground and/or repel any Russian assault northwards. By no means are they merely a speed bump for the Russians as Kherson Oblast is heavily populated by Ukrainians loyal to the new government in Kiev.
The second, third and fourth indisputable facts are the water, electric and natural gas supplies that Ukraine controls and has heretofore provided to the Crimean populace. A vote to join Russia will be a vote to cut off these supplies. Hence it will be utilities crunch time in Crimea thereafter. The Crimean economy will come to a screeching halt and the tens of thousands of Russian soldiers now there will become a burden upon the populace because they will be consuming a large portion of whatever water, electric and natural gas reserves are in Crimea. Hopefully they thought ahead and have been saving them for a rainy day, but I would not bet my next paycheck on it.
That will leave Vladimir Putin and his military commanders two unsavory options. Evacuate Crimea and return it to the status quo which existed prior to their invasion, or to get all froggy and jump with a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Frogs usually do not realize when they have jumped into boiling water that death will come swiftly, so a retreat back to their barracks of origin seems to be the best option. Again, I would not bet my next paycheck on Vladimir Putin and his generals being that smart either. The risks are enormous. However, let us pray cooler heads prevail this time around.
