Saturday, March 1, 2014

Global SITREP B13-14: Ukraine (Russia Invades)

 Russian armored convoy in Ukraine

UPDATE: 2 March 2014: A column of Russian Army BTR-80 armored personnel carriers enroute to Simferopol can be seen in this this Video taken by Ukrainian citizens. They are identical to the Russian armored column in the image above. Over 80 Russian helicopter gunships (the MI-24 'Hind', MI-28 'Havoc' and Ka-50 'Black Shark' among them) were caught on video invading Ukraine two days ago. In the face of this invasion the new Ukrainian government of Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk in Kiev has called up 1 million reservists to join the regular army this morning saying that Russia's actions in the past two days are a "declaration of war."

NATO SecGen Anders Fogh Rasmussen called for an emergency meeting in Brussels, Belgium for Sunday morning. Rasmussen declared the Russian actions in Ukraine are a "violation of the principles of the U.N. Charter." Ukraine's military is no match for Russia which has now deployed 15,000 of its best troops into Crimea. Crimea has been lost before Ukraine could fight for it with Ukrainian troops now out-numbered by a 5:1 ratio. The Donetsk region of the Ukraine is also on Putin's priority hit list and its only a matter of time before Russian troops cross the border in large numbers. it should be another interesting day full of rapid developments.

For Christians these events should be a klaxon blaring yet another very last days wake-up call. These events provide crystal clear evidence that the geographic-political-military divide between the Western and Eastern alliances spoken of by God to the prophet Ezekiel (Ezekiel 38:13) is staring all of us directly in the face. Here we have "Gog of Magog" coming to take Ukraine as a spoil of war by means of a military invasion, and the West offering nothing more than meeting and meeting among themselves and empty rhetoric. No example of this nonsense was more poignant than that of U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry's appearance on NBC's "Face The Nation" program this morning! Once again, at a time of acute crisis, Barack Hussein Obama has performed his disappearing act. None of us should have any illusion about what time it is.

1200 EST 1 March 2014: About one-half hour ago (11:30 AM EST), as I was typing the "My Forecast" at the back end of this update (an update of the 27 February update assessing "an intact and independent and Pro-Western Ukraine might not survive to see the dawn on March 3rd," when the alerts arrived noting that the Russian Parliament had just approved Russian President Vladimir Putin's request, as the Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces of the  Russian Federation, for military intervention in Ukraine.

At the same time the Russian Parliament has issued a demand for President Putin to immediately recall the Russian Ambassador from his post in Washington, D.C.  I suspect the Ambassador of the Russian Federation, Sergei I. Lislyak, a hold-over career diplomat of the former communist Soviet Union, will be wheels-up and airborne on his way back to Moscow before the sun sets in Washington, D.C. today.

As forecast, the next military phase of the Russian invasion and conquest of independent Ukraine has now commenced. In less than 24-hours Vladimir Putin has called both President Obama's incredibly impotent warning about the un-named "costs" to be borne by Russia for its continuing aggression against the Ukraine, as well as the equally anemic warning from Secretary General Rasmussen of NATO concerning the ongoing invasion of a NATO partner.

Perhaps they all need to be reminded of the mutual defense treaty (a/k/a The Budapest Memorandum) between the US, UK and Ukraine to defend its borders signed in Budapest on 4 February 1994 by (left to right in the image below) Boris Yeltsin (Russia), Bill Clinton (USA), Leonid Kuchma (Ukraine) and John Major (UK). Since the first Russian troops (Spetsnaz) crossed into the Ukraine at midweek, followed by the airlift of reinforcements that arrived yesterday morning, Russia has been in blatant violation of the specific clauses of The Budapest Memorandum. Funny how neither the American President or the British Prime Minister have referenced this treaty in any recent public comments. For its part Ukraine has clearly called for it to be upheld.


0700 EST 1 March 2014: Most media have been reporting that 2,000 Russian troops were deployed into the Crimean Autonomous Republic of Ukraine over the past 24 hours. The Ukrainian defense ministry is saying the number is closer to 6,000 troops.

What I have been able to determine through independent data mining is that Crimean airspace was suddenly closed early yesterday morning and all scheduled commercial flights were cancelled. Shortly after this between 800 and 1100 Russian combat troops onboard a minimum of five IL-76 (NATO Name: Candid) transports landed at the Gvardeyskoye military airfield just north of Simferopol. One intrepid and very brave Ukrainian actually took a relatively close up cellphone image in the dark of night of the IL-76 aircraft to confirm the internet report of the landing at Gvardeyskoye. Other Russian troops, possibly as many as 2,500 onboard a minimum of eight additional IL-76 Candid aircraft, landed at another military airfield near Sevastopol. Add in the number of Russian naval commandos that deployed into Crimea and the Ukrainian defense ministry figure of 6,000 "invading" Russian troops becomes quite credible.

These were the last internet reports that came out of Crimea yesterday as what I believe were Russian Spetznaz (Special Forces) operations simultaneously shut down several Ukrtelecom communication stations at various locations in Crimea thereby eliminating all telephone, cellphone and internet links to the outside world. This action was confirmed by the UNIAN (Ukrainian Independent Information Agency) news agency before it began to censor its content, as well as by reports that US military and intelligence community is also scrambling to learn what is going on in Crimea and southern Ukraine.

Perhaps most telling that all is not as serene in southern Ukraine as Moscow would have the rest of the world believe, here is an English-language translation of something I found on what I believe was the Russian Foreign Ministry website. This confirms that armed resistance to the Russian takeover occurred early this morning at the Ministry of Internal Affairs in Simferopol, Crimea (via Bing Translator):



"The Russian FOREIGN MINISTRY statement on the events in Crimea

In Russia  are extremely concerned about recent developments in the Crimea.

On the night of 1 March, unidentified gunmen aimed from Kiev, an attempt was made to capture the building of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea. As a result of blatant provocation there are affected. Thanks to the determined action of the militia attempted seizure of the POLICE was averted. Most confirms the desire of prominent political leaders in Kiev to destabilize the situation on the peninsula.

Encourage those who give such orders from Kiev to show restraint. Believe it is irresponsible to further aggravate the already tense situation in the Crimea."
My forecast:

1.) This is so much like Hitler and the Sudetenland in 1938 - Russia NEEDS the Crimea to fold the whole of Ukraine back into its reconstituting empire. 

2.) There is no way Ukraine gets to keep Crimea and most of southern Ukraine; in fact, I think Ukrainian survival as an independent nation is about as assured as was Poland's independence at 4 AM on the morning of September 1, 1939. Nazi Luftwaffe and Kriegsmarine units opened fire 45 minutes later, and by 8 AM the Wehrmacht Heer crossed the Polish border at the village of Mokra; the rest is recorded history.


27 February 2014: A Russian Spetsnaz-led "false flag" operation has obviously been in execution for the past 24 hours. Unless loyal Ukrainian military forces begin to intervene against this invasion of Ukrainian sovereignty, an intact and independent and Pro-Western Ukraine might not survive to see the dawn on March 3rd. The Polish government will likely react with more vigor to these new facts on the ground than the Obama Administration.

24 February 2014: The Ukrainian crisis has entered a very dangerous phase and has become a focal point of a new EU/US confrontation with the Russian Federation.  The image above illustrates the potential for a division of the Ukraine along a North-South axis. This image is based upon a 2001 census of native Ukrainian language speakers (bold yellow) as opposed to areas (oblasts) where the Russian language predominates (light yellow or white). In the current scenario the North is seen as aligning itself with the EU/US/NATO and the South  is seen as aligning itself with Russia.

As side from the civil and demographic sectors there are forces at work in this current scenario. 

The energy sector: There was recently a major oil/natural gas discovery in the Ukraine which has a great potential once developed of carrying the country into becoming energy independent from Russia. Europe would be the most likely export market for this new source of petroleum energy.  

The military sector: the Ukrainian military and internal security forces are reportedly split 70/30 in favor of the new government forming in Kiev. The Russian-majority Autonomous Republic of Crimea has formally requested military protection of its territory by Russia.  This  is the most critical area of the current crisis. A Russian military build up was noted in the past 72 hours in the Southern Military District HQ of Rostov on Don. To this end the HQ 49th Army at Stavropol appears to be coordinating with the HQ 20th Army at Voronezh. This activity prompted the report of a US/EU warning to Russian President Vladimir Putin to desist from any military intervention in the Ukraine. 

This leads us to the potential for a Russian "false flag" operation against Ukraine. Anything from an assassination of ousted Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych (who has become a major liability to Russian President Putin), to a perceived threat to Russian nationals who predominate in southeastern Ukraine and the Crimean Autonomous Republic. To say this crisis is volatile would be a gross understatement of the current situation.

UPDATE Part II - The Ezekiel Factor:  In these last days whenever a significant number of Russian military forces are reported to be OTM (On-The-Move) I will always pay very close attention to it and there is a very specific prophetic reason to do so. Dr. Arnold Fruchtenbaum has long taught, and I have long agreed with him, that the meaning of Ezekiel 38:4 relates to a sudden change in the strategic objective for Gog's confederation of forces.
"I will turn you around, put hooks into your jaws, and lead you out, with all your army, horses, and horsemen, all splendidly clothed, a great company with bucklers and shields, all of them handling swords."
Gog's military intent is to move his marshaled forces in a direction other than south towards Israel, but God suddenly and directly intervenes and turns Gog around with the symbolic hooks (chach lechiy - plural, more than one hook!) in his jaws and leads them to destruction on the mountains of Israel. Taken from my "The Prophetic Road to Revelation (Part IV):The War of Gog of Magog," in the subsection entitled "When God Goes to War," I wrote the following: 

"I am compelled to make a specific note at this point that there is not just one hook or one jaw, but plural "hooks" and "jaws." There are more than one hook and more than one jaw, or many hooks and many jaws. Secondly, the "hook" is not necessarily a "fish hook" as we might imagine. The Hebrew word is chach can mean a ring, like a nose ring as found Ezekiel Ch 29:4, or a bracelet, and both of which were run through the nose of wild animals in order to tame them. Often in Old Testament times a rope was attached to the ring or the bracelet to lead the animal to where the trainer wanted it to go. The next Hebrew word to note is lechiy which is a reference to the cheek of a man, or the jawbone of an animal."

It's not much of a war in that the Gog confederation's forces arrive over Israel like a cloud covering the land and just as suddenly are dispatched to their eternal fate. So it is, I believe, that it will be with the suddenness of the re-direction of Gog's forces. This scenario conforms to what I also believe about Ezekiel's prophecy occurring prior to the 70th Week. There are indeed other factors involved in the fulfillment of this prophecy which have not yet been met, but the marshaling of Russian forces for one potential objective makes this current event one to keep a very close eye on because undoubtedly it will occur again when all of the Ezekiel 38/39 circumstances are properly aligned in the near future.

I also have no doubt that in this era of high resolution satellite reconnaissance an extremely large force as described in the prophetic word of Ezekiel simply cannot go undetected as it is assembled, even at the lesser force component (brigade and battalion) levels. Once massed and OTM (On-The-Move) such a force would be simple to detect via a plethora of electromagnetic, infrared and optic sensors. Large forces cannot and do not go into movement without these signatures.  This is what is now occurring with respect to Russian military forces and the situation in Ukraine.



19 February 2014: The above image may invoke thoughts about the apocalypse, but is actaully an image taken this morning in Independence Square, Kiev, Ukraine.  Here is my periscope view on what is occurring in the Ukraine, a brief recent history on what has led to this, and the result likely to be witnessed in the prophetic fulfillment of Ezekiel 38/39.

The violence in Ukraine today is all about a forceful Russian-led usurpation of Ukrainian sovereignty and political independence that was achieved after the collapse of the USSR in 1991. Make no mistake, this is a full-scale revolution against Russian designs on the Ukraine. 

Although a holdover totalitarian communist regime remained in power for the next 13 years (1991-2005), a simple majority of the Ukrainian people's desire for integration into the Western community of democratic nations, with the EU and with NATO led to a showdown with the neo-communist government of Leonid Kuchma.  

 In 2004 and 2005 the peaceful "Orange Revolution" led to the removal of the old communist order and the instllation of the very Pro-West/Pro-EU/Pro-NATO government of Viktor Yushchenko. In 2010 a new election was won by Viktor Yanukovych who began rolling back the Pro-West/Pro-EU/Pro-NATO aspirations, but he could not completely overcome them.  

Russia exerted its  economic power over Ukrainian aspirations by shutting of natural gas supplies (economic warfare). This pressure and the unilateral Ukrainian government cancellation of a Pro-EU treaty has since turned the peaceful "Orange Revolution" into a violent confrontation and near armed revolution between the people and the Ukrainian state which has both Russia and Belarus supporting it against the Ukrainian people. Long story short from the prophetic perspective... Gog of Magog is re-building his empire prior to Ezekiel 38/39.

16 comments:

Great Grany 5 said...

On one of my news feeds I read that the Ukrainian leadership has now issued an arrest warrant for their Russian sponsored President, who has deserted his office. Same source reported that the USA Pres has issued a severe @:) warning to Russia not to interfere with the Ukrainian people or it's government. Now I can't help but wonder if Pres is going to draw another Yellow line in the sand for this situation.

I know, mean Grany this morning but my bacon was tough and it just makes my day start off wrong. It was so tough a Master Sargent would be meaner than a junk yard dog. But I am praying about it.

Shalom, GG5

Sean Osborne said...

That is a true report. I have new information that will go into an update for this shortly.

This is not a good situation for maintenance of the relative peace in Eastern Europe.

hartdawg said...

I'm not exactly sure what to make of this, I remember about 5 years ago when Russia flexed her muscles with Georgia and that didn't turn out to be much but this is completely different. Is Ukraine part of the Gog/Magog alliance? If so, I expect it to fall to Russia.

Sean Osborne said...

hartdawg,

Nothing about what happened in Georgia and what is happening in the Ukraine is complete or over by any means. Both are a "work-in-progress" in the rebuilding of the former Soviet empire. The independence of both countries remains in grave jeopardy as does the prospect of military action against them by Russia.

The Crimea Autonomous Republic (part of Ukraine) has come under the control of Russian military forces without a shot being fired.

mark3210 said...

One key difference between Georgia and Ukraine is that the former started flaring up in 2008 back when Bush was President.

Now the Russians know the US won't do anything in response to what they are doing.

I see the Iranians are bragging that Arak is 85% completed now.

Sooner or later all of these things will reach the boiling point...

Sean Osborne said...

There are lots of differences.

First and foremost is that neither Georgia or Ukraine have mutual defense pacts with the United States.

Secondly, Georgia has a NATO partnership status, which is known as the Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council (EAPC) and the North Atlantic Cooperation Council (NACC). Georgia contributed troops and materiel to the NATO mission in Afghanistan.

Ukraine's NATO relationship is known as the NATO-Ukraine Commission (NUC). Ukraine has contributed to NATO missions in Kosovo and Afghanistan. I remember being with Ukrainian troops in Operation Iraqi Freedom over ten years ago now.

What really matters at this point is when NATO will honor Ukraine's call for NATO assistance in this crisis. To my knowledge Ukraine has not requested US assistance. What happens now will have significant effect prophetically speaking.

Drew said...

I am seeing information that Russia has crossed into the Crimea in force. Something like a brigade sized unit. Also hear that APC's and Armor are moving as well. Looks like Putin is serious about keeping all of his pipelines that run through Ukraine to Europe open.

It's been a LOOOONG time since I was in the military, but I seem to recall that Ukraine has a formidable standing Army of some capability. This weekend may be interesting.

BTW, also heard that Iran has just completed an exercise designed to train its forces how to "re-capture" Jerusalem. And in fact has said that they are ready to do just that. Interesting times. I think maybe Gabriel is warming up for his trumpet solo!

Great Grany 5 said...

Sean, world wide, the confluences are beginning to gel so fast I cannot keep up. So in place of trying to, I read what you are penning and then the rest of it is just a matter of bending my knees and lifting them all up in prayers. If there is a very definite prayer area, please advise and I will join you there.

Until He shouts us out,
Maranatha and
Shalom/GG%

Kenneth Moore said...

Sean. This is a pretty serious event and Putin will not back down. Obama doesn't have the stomach to go toe to toe. With Iran events, Syria and Israel all in the mix could be explosive events to start Psalms 83 quickly.

Sean Osborne said...

It's been serious as a heart attack since the former Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych issued orders for his security forces to open fire on Pro-West democracy demonstrators in Kiev, in front of live television cameras covering the protest.

Why did he do that?

Because Viktor Yanukovych knew direct from his boss Vladimir Putin in Moscow, and from watching the grandiose Use Of Force theatrical play Obama attempted over Syrian WMD last August and September that Obama is all mouth; a spewer of lots and lots of meaningless words; a completely inexperienced and incompetent American president who is devoid of the required backbone to be a an American Commander-In-Chief.


Yanukovych and Putin both know that Obama is nothing more than a far-left ideologue, a foreign-born usurper, and a globalist apparatchik who is more interested in bringing the United States of America down with over $17 trillion in debt to the sub-third world level in which he was actually born in the 1960 British colony of Kenya, than in holding to true American values of life, liberty and the pursuit individual happiness; they know he is a man who takes no stock whatsoever in the fact that all men are born with God-given inalienable rights, the basis of which our Constitution was founded. They know he stands upon nothing more sturdy than the bankrupt revolutionary rhetoric of his communist mentor Frank Marshall Davis.

They can read Obama like a book; they know that he will not come to Ukraine's rescue because they know more about him than do the American public who have foolishly elected him twice. They know a house of cards when they see one.

This is exactly the kind of power vacuum in the West that the Antichrist needs to draw himself into power. It is also the kind of power vacuum that makes warfare on an unimaginable scale more likely than it has ever been.

I sense a very rude awakening for many, many people.

Even so, Marana'tha!

mark3210 said...

Sean,
It's interesting that this invasion happens now right after the Sochi Olympics concluded.

Here Russia had just conducted an Olympics that not only remained safe, but they won the medal count. Momentarily it seemed like Putin was gaining stature in the world's eyes.

But now Russia's war on Ukraine is front page news everywhere.

Sean Osborne said...

Mark3210,

It's even more interesting that the Russian invasion of Ukraine occurred right after the Olympics in Sochi when one realizes that this military invasion was planned to happen this way.

The western world media camera's and journalists (and I use that term lightly) were focused on the Olympics. The ongoing civil protests in Ukraine before the Olympics began were barely a second thought when it came to reporting on them during most of the month of February.

99% of the media in the Ukraine was pro-Yanukovych/pro-Russia because the government controlled their purse strings. Only Channel 5 (Kanal 5) and Ukrayinskaya Pravda provided unbaised coverage of the protests against Yanukovych and his Russian backers.

What was reported by Western media was pretty much ignored by everyone on this side of the planet, excepting only the majority of the Ukrainian people and perhaps the Polish and other Eastern European nations who have only been free of that type of neo-communist totalitarianism under the Soviet Warsaw Pact for the past 23 years.

Only those people 24-years old and older remember what life was like under the Soviet dictatorship and they have taught the sons and daughters well to cherish their new freedom and to fight for it lest they should lose it once again.

The bigger news for us is what these events clearly provide evidence of.

hartdawg said...

I'm not sure if I asked this before but with what's going on it really has me wondering, doesn't it seem that the proverbial cart before the horse is occurring? Psalm 83 occurs before Ezekiel 38&39 and yet it seems that the stage for Ezekiel 38&39 is occurring more rapidly than psalm 83 and Isaiah 17. Am I misinterpreting current events, or does this present situation have me overlooking what's going on with the psalm 83 nations?

Great Grany 5 said...

As a Believer in Jesus Christ, Holy Spirit filled, speaking in my heavenly language and with access to the Throne Room continually, I can scale the highest mountains and ask for the Divine Response Team of Heaven's Host to form that mighty Hedge/Wall/Mountains of protection and deliverance for the Jews of Israel and all true Believers residing there.

Greater than any tank, missile, flying machine of a man made nature and no matter all of the threats of the enemy, Israel will Stand Forever by the Power of YAHWEH!

SHALOM/GG5

mark3210 said...

I do know that NBC networks spent a little time discussing the Ukraine violence the day that Ukraine won a gold medal February 21.

And they also showed the medal ceremony for Ukraine the following day.

Prior to that gold medal I'm pretty sure they didn't mention Ukraine at all during Olympic coverage.

Sean Osborne said...

I received the follow blog item in an Email today. It's from a blog I've not heard of before called "MikesRight." Obviously conservative Tea Party or Republican. I think it is worth repeating here, for the record.

"In the heat of the 2012 campaign, during an October presidential debate between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, Obama ridiculed Romney over his concern about Russia as a “geo-political” threat.

Obama attempted to paint Romney as somehow out-of-touch with 21st century geo-politics, suggesting (ironically, as we now know) that al-Qaeda was a bigger threat than Russia. “You said Russia. Not al-Qaeda. You said Russia,” Obama said regarding biggest threats. Then came this snarky blast:

The 1980s are now calling to ask for their foreign policy back because…the Cold War’s been over for 20 years.

Setting aside the fact that while Obama suggested that al-Qaeda was the number-one geo-political threat in the world, later claimed that the terrorist group had been “decimated” and was “on the run” only to learn that it is now stronger and controls more territory that at any time in its history, could this snide comment to Romney look any more foolish that it now does?

This is the second time in a week that former Republican candidates — ridiculed at the time for their foreign policy observations — have been proved right about Russia; Sarah Palin predicted in 2008 that under a weak Obama, Russia would be tempted to invade Ukraine.

Incidentally, Palin has been consistently ridiculed for saying “I can see Russia from my house,” which she never said**. What a tragedy that, as both Palin and Romney correctly feared, Ukrainians can now see Russians from their homes.


**Sarah Palin told Charles Gibson in an ABC-TV prime time interview that "Russia can be seen from land here in Alaska." Absolutely true statement.)

Sarah also said:

"Back in 2008, I accurately predicted the possibility of Putin feeling emboldened to invade Ukraine because I could see what kind of leader Barack Obama would be. The bullies of the world are always emboldened by indecision and moral equivalence. We can expect more of this sort of thing in a world where America is gutting its military and 'leading from behind."

I'm adding a couple of video's to the main page in a new entry. Hindsight is always 20/20, but some of us understood these things from the get-go.