Monday, June 3, 2013

Global SITREP A13-13: Chaos Magnified

03 June 2013: As if the chaotic situation in the Middle East could not stand another violent variable to be entered into an unsolvable equation, this is precisely what has occurred. And it has occurred in Turkey of all places. It's not the usual type one might expect of Kurd vs. Turk or Turk vs. Kurd violence. This time is different because it is Turk versus Turk civil unrest. This weekend saw the eruption of violent of anti-regime protests in approximately seventy of Turkey's largest cities by tens of thousands of anti-Islamic protestors ranging from nostalgic Ataturk secularists to the communist TKP (Türkiye Komünist Partisi). It would seem obvious that the anti-Islamic portion of Turkish society has had quite enough of the so-called Justice and Development Party (AKP) Islamist's led by Recep Tayyip Erdogan. It is impossible to predict where this violent uprising against Turkey's Islamist regime by Turkish citizens will lead except to say that violence begets more violence. So either this popular revolt against the Islamist government will escalate, or the Islamist government will direct their attention to the full-scale war going on in Syria and Lebanon to the south. 

Turkey also has serious international problems created by Erdogan's Islamists that are directly related to the Syrian civil war. Turkey, a new partner with the eastern bloc SCO alliance discussed in Global SITREP A10-13, is militarily at odds and ostracized from its new friends in the SCO, namely Russia and Iran, who both militarily support Bashar al-Assad's Ba'athist regime in Damascus with all manner of war materiel and fighting men. Turkey, as a NATO ally, would also be opposed to Russian shipments of S-300PMU-1/2 missiles and MiG-29M fighters through its Bosporus and Dardanelles Straits to the enemy regime in Syria. Turkey is also aligned with the terrorists of HAMAS in Gaza and against the Palestinian Authority controlled by Fatah and Mahmoud Abbas. HAMAS and Hezbollah are now at war with each other in Lebanon, and the Islamists of the Syrian FSA and Iraqi-led Al Qaeda-led Al-Nusra are killing each other with rocket fire across the Syrian-Lebanese border and an ongoing epic siege battle at al-Qusayr in Syria.

And then, not to be left out of the completely chaotic mix, there's Turkey's self-created problems with Israel. These are problems which the Islamist Turkish government under Erdogan's AKP leadership deliberately created via the flotilla in support of HAMAS terrorists. To make matters worse Turkey recently rebuffed an unnecessary but requested Israeli apology, which was PM Netanyahu's attempt at reconciliation, which appears to have been orchestrated at the behest of American President Barack Obama. Now, pardon me for being flippant about this situation, but just how many enemies can the Turkish Islamist government make in just a few months time? Could this be a new Guinness World Record for turning allies on all sides into enemies and other enemies into even greater enemies and then to go about making enemies of its own citizenry?

This is mind-blowing chaos magnified to be sure. And we've not quite arrived at the moment of Isaiah 17's fulfillment which I believe will be the catalyst for the final act of the Psalm 83 War. This is just craziness and there really is no way to make sense of it all... except to say that magnified chaos such as this meshes perfectly with our Lord Jesus Christ's Olivet Discourse description of the ever increasing frequency and severity of the birth pangs that herald the soon arrival of the 70th Week.

Look up, our Lord comes quickly!
Marana'tha!

Addendum to SITREP A13-13:

If you ask two random Israeli citizens if PM Netanyahu will order an attack to bomb Iranian nuclear sites you will get two opposing answers. One will be a definite yes, and the other will be a definite no. This is what I've found when it comes to reading secular Israeli OpEds at the Israpundit.com website. In his article (There Are Many Reasons to Expect a War this Summer) Israpundit editor Ted Belman, an American-born Israeli, is the 'hawk' who echos the prevailing opinion on the right on why Israel must strike Iran. And then, in an apples to apples in comparision, is the also conservative, also an American-born Israeli, Barry Rubin who unequivocally states exactly the opposite - there is a zero chance that Israel will unilaterally strike Iran this summer. (See: Turkey, Israel and Syria: Why Things Are Going Wrong)

Who is right?

If there were specific Bible prophecy in support of either position then I would agree with that position, but there is no Bible prophecy on this issue in order to draw an eschatological conclusion... not even Jeremiah 49:34-39 is evidence of an Israeli strike on Iran. If anything it appears to predict a coalition attack on Iranian nuclear sites, and in the past two decades two coalition military actions have occurred in the Middle east and neither involved Israel.

With this is my Biblical basis, I would have to agree with Barry Rubin, Israel will not strike Iran. I have long been of the opinion that a coalition of nations that does not include Israel will do it.

As for HAMAS, they are Sunni jihadists, and they are at war with the Shi'a jihadists of Hezbollah, and by extension, Iran and Alawite Syria.  In this Sunni versus Shi'a war Israel will also remain neutral up until some currently unforeseen event.

I believe that event is most likely something al-Assad does which causes the Isaiah 17 scenario to come to fulfillment like some FedEx overnight delivery.

I believe al-Assad will launch a surprise chemical attack on Israel in retaliation for the repeated attacks that Israel is making against Syria's and Iran's attempts to place more powerful and accurate rockets in Hezbollah's inventory.  I believe al-Assad fully intends to strike Israel the moment when he believes he has the Sunni rebels on the ropes, and at the moment this appears to be possible with a Syrian-Hezbollah/IRGC victory in the siege of al-Qusayr. I believe the Iranian Ayatollah Khamenei, president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and president-to-be Saeed Jalili have al-Assad committed to this agenda.

The nuclear annihilation of Damascus would be a pivotal event that would immediately douse the Sunni-Shi'a war with cold water, and the Sunni and Shi'a elements currently at war with each other in Lebanon and Syria will come against Israel in the final act of the Psalm 83 scenario.

Here lies the difference between the secular Israeli views of potential future events and one that is based upon Bible prophecy.

6 comments:

hartdawg said...

Question: we know from scripture and excellent scholars like salus, Reagan and yourself that Isaiah 17 and psalm 83 precedes Ezekiel 38&39 by some undetermined amount of time. we also know from current events that the stage is nearly set for both psalm 83 and Ezekiel 38&39 (moreso with psalm 83 since it precedes Gog/Magog). My question is this, will the current situation in Turkey set Gog/Magog even further back since Turkey is making enemies out of Russia and Iran?

Brian GC said...

This article is a reminder that future partners in Gog's Israeli enterprise do have internal opposition. The fact that both Turkey and Iran are dominated by Islamists today but will be partners with Russia tomorrow suggests major changes will occur.

Those changes will be interesting to witness as they develop.

Sean Osborne said...

Hartdawg,

The reality that Turkey is garrisoning and arming FSA rebel forces placing itself in a de facto state of war with Russia's, Iran's and Hezbollah's ally Syria really does serve to illustrate the distance between the Ezekiel 38/39 prophecy and the present time.

However, it is also true that while being at war with one another in Syria ALL of the enemy combatants involved are enemies of Israel.

These differences could evaporate almost overnight based upon the scenario I believe could be an imminent possibility following an al-Assad victory in the Siege of Al-Qusayr. See the addendum I have added to this SITREP.

Sean Osborne said...

Brian GC,

Yes, major changes are still yet to occur and I believe the fulfillment of Isaiah 17 will almost certainly become a catalyst for them all.

mark3210 said...

Sean,
So it you don't expect Israel to strike Iran, who do you think will lead the coalition against them?

It's hard for me to imagine the US under the current leadership doing it, but maybe they would after Syria has launched the surprise chemical attack you feel is near?

Sean Osborne said...

Mark,

Do you think Israel believes it is prepared to fight a war to the death against WMD--armed Iran, Syria, Hezbollah

-- or --

Might their military planners believe it essential to neutralize any threat from the 25-meter targets (Syria and Hezbollah) before taking on the 75-meter threat (Iran)?

This is how military planners think, and it is what I believe Israel's planners have been preparing for based upon their tacit agreements with the US/NATO.

I do not believe Israel will act in a manner that would place in jeopardy what their current most fervent desire - the security guarantees that would be automatically realized with an invitation for membership in NATO.

Tarshish, it's 'young lions' along with Sheba and Dedan will likely end the immediate Iranian nuclear threat to their vision of "global order'.