"Gog" and Bibi are scheduled to meet face-to-face on Wednesday, 20 NOV 13 in Moscow, Russia.
Update 7 November 2013: Russian President Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, whom I like to refer to as "Gog," and Israeli PM Bibi Netanyahu are scheduled to have a face-to-face chat 13 days from now. Even though neither obviously is American nor an observant of our Thanksgiving national holiday, they will undoubtedly be talking "turkey" next week as two competent national leaders should talk "turkey" when the stakes are so high for regional and world peace.
One of the items that will undoubtedly be on their plate of fare is the as yet not officially acknowledged Iranian "genie out of the bottle" capability to construct one or more nuclear weapons by Christmas Day 2013. The former IAEA Deputy Director Ollie Heinonen says they could do this within a month at an accelerated pace, and former Israeli military intelligence chief Amos Yadlin now says the Iranians can do it in 3 months time at their leisure. To every one's best knowledge there is no intelligence that Iran has yet begun to construct these weapons and that is a huge but apparently acceptable risk to take at this juncture. Yet, there is no guarantee that Israel will sit idly by and allow such a conceivable construction to occur. This is likely the bottom line that Bibi Netanyahu will convey to his Russian counterpart because Bibi knows Vladimir cannot offer him any guarantees for what the Ayatollah will or will not do, his nuclear fatwa notwithstanding.
Assessment: The coming days will see continuing increased pressure until some aspect of this entire saga finally gives way to a resolution, one way or another.
3 November 2013: New information coming out of Iran is strongly suggesting that a very suspicious and fortuitous explosion occurred last week deep inside the Arak IR-40 plutonium reactor building as it was being prepped for a final test prior to going online. Apparently the damage inflicted by the blast was of sufficient power to prevent the fueling and testing of the reactor core. No matter the source of the explosion was, it is welcome news and buys a small additional amount of time for Israeli decision makers (PM Netanyahu and his Cabinet) as a critical P5+1 negotiation session with Iran reconvenes this week in Geneva.
1 November 2013: From DEBKAfile comes word that the lions share of the 3 billion New Israeli Shekel IDF funding cuts from last spring have been restored as of last evening. This is no 'trick or treat;' it is very bad news for the Ayatollah who might be in poor health at the present time.
IDF wins battle for supplemental budget
DEBKAfile October 31, 2013, 8:16 PM (GMT+02:00)The cabinet Thursday approved an extra NIS2.7 billion for the defense budget, replacing most of the amount slashed in the across-the-board cutbacks of the state budget last May. The high IDF command said funding was needed to speed up preparations for a military strike on Iran’s nuclear program.
30 October 2013: The bottom line of the Iranian sprint to nuclear weapons capability, and thus the initiation of Israel's final count-down clock to prevent this from happening, boils down to this: with its existing stock of enriched to 20% Uranium-235 Iran could have enough weapons grade uranium (WGU) for its first indigenous manufactured nuclear weapon by Friday, 8 November 2013, and just over a half-dozen nuclear weapons before Christmas 2013. On Monday, 28 October, PM Bibi Netanyahu placed a call to President Barack Obama to make sure he understood this from the Israeli perspective.
Given these subject matter expert facts on the state of the Iranian nuclear weapons program, one can almost hear the whine of Israel's F-16I Sufa (Storm) and F-15I Ra'am (Thunder) Pratt & Whitney F100-PW-229 afterburning turbofan engines coming up to full take-off power - the mission they will have to fly is that close at hand.
The primary targets they will strike, most likely following a series of non-nuclear electromagnetic pulse (NNEMP) weapons being deployed across the breadth of the country, will be the Natanz and Qom (Fordo) enrichment facilities, the Arak heavy water plutonium producing reactor (IR40) located 190 miles southwest of Tehran, and all known storage sites of uranium and uranium hexafloride. In particular, there is also some urgency in that the Arak heavy water reactor must be struck prior to the insertion of fuel rods into the reactor vessel that was fully installed last June. Left untouched the Arak IR40 reactor will produce between 22 and 26 pounds of plutonium during 2014.
So as no one might be surprised by the occurrence of Israel's pre-emptive strikes in Iran, they could conceivably occur as soon as this weekend when optimal conditions will present themselves.
Readers of Eschatology Today should carefully note that Israel has been threatening a preemptive strike against Iran for the past five (5) years. Some astute Middle East observers have noted this fact and and cite the repetitiveness of Israel's warnings as amounting to "crying wolf" to loudly and too frequently to be assessed as a valid threat, perhaps especially by the Iranians themselves.
I view this recent history in a different light. Israel has launched a series of at least five (5) devastating pre-emptive strikes in neighboring Syria between January and October of this year against what it considers to be 'game changing' transfers of war materiel between Syria and Hezbollah of Lebanon. I assess these strikes in WMD-armed Syria serve as clear and present barks prior to the big bite that will occur upon Iran.
I also assess that Israel is keenly aware of the extremely negative repercussions that occurred in the immediate aftermath of U.S. President Barack Obama's very recent abject failure to live up to his bellicose and daily repeated threats to pre-emptively and punitively strike Syrian military targets over the false allegation of Bashar al-Assad's use of chemical weapons against rebel forces on the outskirts of Damascus. No nation on this earth reacted more negatively and more kinetically to this "crying wolf" of an American President than did the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. This is a lesson Israel has learned in very recent weeks which buttresses the lessons it learned through Prime Minister Golda Meir's failure to act pre-emptively prior to the Yom Kippur War of 1973, a war that nearly ended in a military if not potential existential disaster for Israel.
Israel cannot and will not bear similar types of negative repercussions through a failure to prevent the Islamic Republic of Iran from producing its own nuclear arsenal. This is the lesson I believe both historical, recent and current events are attempting to teach us. Never again underestimate Israel's ability to act when faced with a danger such as is staring Israel, the greater Middle East and the world in the face right now.
Very specific technical details upon which this assessment is partially based will be posted within the comments section shortly.
Very specific technical details upon which this assessment is partially based will be posted within the comments section shortly.
Just in case anyone else is wondering... today's blog post (B4-13 or Before '13) about the potential timing of Israel's strike against Iran is purely coincidental.
ReplyDeleteAppropriate, but purely coincidental.
Another point that is in dire need of being emphasized - yet again.
ReplyDeleteIran has been in possession of digitized blueprints for an advanced nuclear warhead design since at least June 2007.
These digital blueprints for the automated machining of advanced nuclear warhead components came to Iran courtesy of the AQ Khan (Pakistan) nuclear technology proliferation network.
This is the exact same advanced, miniaturized nuclear warhead that both American and IAEA investigators were utterly stunned to find resident in the hard disc drives of AQ Khan's global network of computers.
How many of these advanced nuclear warheads does anyone suppose the Iranians could have manufactured in the past six (6) years?
How many nuclear warheads does Iran require to create the chaos their warped Shi'a theology demands of them?
And if anyone doubts these warheads would work, they are the same warheads that Pakistan tested and placed on top of their Haft IX nuclear missiles and have aimed at Indian cities.
They are warheads that US technology first developed before being stolen by the Communist Chinese, improved upon, and then sold to the Pakistani's as a hedge against Indian nuclear power.
The only thing missing from these warheads is the Weapons Grade Highly Enriched Uranium (U-235) fissile core that these posts are discussing.
Sunday November 3rd will be a New (dark) moon phase - In Jewish history it marks the Balfour Declaration 1917 and almost thirty years to the day of the sending of this letter, the UN would vote to create a Jewish state in Palestine; 1941: The Germans begin the construction of an extermination center at Belzec, Poland; 1943 (4th of Cheshvan, 5704): The Germans commenced operation "Harvest Festival" - the destruction of 500,000 of the survivors of the Warsaw ghetto uprising; 1956: Israel captured Gaza, Sheham and El Arish (the Egyptian capital of the northern Sinai) during the war with Egypt...so plenty of significant meaningful events on this day to support a strike on Iran.
ReplyDeleteThanks Jim, good observations on the historical side.
ReplyDeleteI was looking also, but have not mentioned it thus far on the front page article, the full lunar eclipse that will occur on Sunday, 3 NOV.
However, this eclipse was noted at the end in my last comment of SITREP B3-13, and which was a repeat of a detailed tactical assessment that was disseminated yesterday (29OCT13) afternoon to several key eschatologists and an intelligence digest of current events.
Technical Details (OSINT) of Iran's Nuclear Weapons Program
ReplyDelete1. Iran has achieved a surplus of 20% Highly Enriched U-235.
Naturally occurring uranium, by weight, is 99.284% U-238. The remainder .716% is U-235.
The process of enrichment of uranium is to raise the level of fissionable U-235 to higher and higher levels.
Low Enriched Uranium (LEU) is commonly 3 to 5% U-235. This level of enrichment is applicable rods put to light water containment vessels of commercial power reactors such as the one Iran has built with Russian assistance in Bushehr.
Uranium that is moderately enriched to approximately 12-19% U-235 (sometimes called MEU)is commonly utilized used in the rods for research reactors.
Uranium enrichment that attains a level of 20% or more U-235 is considered Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU). What is not commonly know is that 20% HEU is acceptable for a very crude nuclear weapon; it is considered to be "weapons usable" HEU. This is why to 20% figures so prominently in media discussions of this issue. It is the level of enrichment of uranium at which anything beyond is definitively for fissionable weaponization purposes.
When the level of U-235 reaches 85% this is called true Weapons Grade Uranium (WGU). However, it must be noted within the first nuclear weapon used in war, the WWII "Little Boy" Hiroshima weapon, the fissile core was composed of 141 lbs of U-235 enriched to 80%.
This weapon was approximately 2.5 times that required for a critical mass detonation.
At the present time the critical mass of a nuclear weapon is a sphere shaped core weighing 110 lbs enriched to 85% U-235. The fissile core sphere is roughly the size of a baseball.
A plutonium-boosted weapon (Pu-239) requires HEU enriched to a level between 40-80% U-235 and a small amount of the "fusion fuel" lithium deuteride.
2. With its current surplus of uranium enriched to 20% U-235 Iran can attain enough WGU for a single weapon anywhere from two weeks to 1.5 months from 25 October 2013. They can have several weapons worth before Christmas 2013.
Based upon all appearances, it has been left to the State of Israel alone to determine whether or not the apocalyptic-minded Islamic Republic of Iran will be permitted to manufacture these nuclear weapons.
Sean,
ReplyDeleteWhat is your assessment of what is going on at the Bushehr reactor?
Is it a target Israel needs to hit or disable at the current time?
I ask this because the last time I felt military action was this likely and imminent was August 2010 as the reactor went online. Yet we generally don't here that much about it anymore compared to all the underground facilities.
As noted, Bushehr is an operating commercial nuclear reactor. No doubt this fact will exempt Bushehr from an Israeli Order-of-Battle target list.
ReplyDeleteBut as far as Bushehr goes, isn't there a risk that Iran can remove the fuel rods and use them for bombs without the Israelis knowing in real time?
ReplyDeleteThere were articles about this last December saying the IAEA is only permitted to visit the site every 90 days. Here's one of those:
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424127887324355904578159550372337228
Even though Bushehr has been in Iranian hands for a month now, the Russians still have IAEA-mandated control of plant operations for another two years.
ReplyDeleteThis means there are IAEA and Russian (Rosatom) nuclear technicians at the site which would prevent a pilfering of the rods.
Besides this the Lord has the ability to render the plant rubble and save the IAF both the time and trouble to target it. For Him a large, well-placed earthquake is a simple thing to accomplish.
Sean,
ReplyDeleteI've been thinking about how likely Israel is to go now before the next round of talks.
I'm going to say I think 70 percent chance they go now and 30 percent chance they wait.
Personally I think the negatives of waiting far outweigh the positives.
Mark,
ReplyDeleteSo, we're on the same page that sooner, or later, they are going to go and they will do so before Iran pops off a test nuke in their desert.
It could be this weekend; it could be a little later, but not much later.
The longer the wait the higher the risk becomes of not being able to go.
So, with this in mind I have been looking for a clue within Scripture that might indicate when.
Jeremiah (Yirmeyahu) 49:34-39 is where I'm looking. Elam had long since perished when Jeremiah was prophesying with this text, (circa 597-95 BC, or early in the reigh of King Zedekiah per verse 34) so the point of reference of this prophecy is clearly to what we know as Persia/Iran.
Verse 35 tells us their primary offensive military weapons will be destroyed. Verse 36 speaks to a depopulation of the land, of exiles that disperse around the world. Verse 37 says the destruction of the weaponry causes them to be dismayed before their enemies (Iran's enemies are Israel, the US and the Sunni Muslims at present) and that this is accomplished through the "sword" that the Lord will send against them.
This would appear to indicate that it is sudden and unexpected defeat. Kinda sorta like the assessment made in these posts. :)
I almost feel like I'm jumping the gun to ask this before hostilities begin - but what is the expected duration of the coming conflict?
ReplyDeleteCould it last a week? A month? 2 months?
Seems like there are so many unknown variables, not the least of which is how the Iranian side will respond.
The duration is an known unknown.
ReplyDeleteHowever, all planning scenarios suggest it will been designed to be short, extremely violent, total shock and awe, and leave Iran totally in the dark. That's what EMP strikes do, they suppress an enemies ability to respond in both the near and long term.
Israel wants the Iranian targets to be virtual "sitting ducks in a row" for the pilots and aircraft they are risking.
I suppose I'm answering my own question but it looks like the actual one way flying time from Israel to Iran would be less than an hour.
ReplyDeleteSince we know they need to refuel on the way back I had thought it might've been more than that.
So I suppose the operation could take place pretty much any hour the sun is down, right?
The way the Obama Administration eagerly blows the whistle on every IAF operation... (thank God Israel does not do the same to US military operations!!) ...an Iran operation might still be underway.
ReplyDeleteThis has all been war-gamed here before. Anyone who is interested can read Operation Gibor: Iran Strike Scenario Simulation which I first posted to this blog back in April 2009, then re-posted in August 2012.
Maybe the third time...
By the way... I'd give Netanyahu some leeway here... if I were him I would be watching to see what transpires in Geneva at the next P5+1.
ReplyDeleteIsrael has enough nukes of its own right now to turn all of Iran's major cities into glass, so making sure the Ayatollah is playing the Obama Administration for fools might not be a bad idea.
This is a very good time to just sit back and quietly observe what's going on in Iran, Geneva and Jerusalem this week.
ReplyDeleteThis is exactly what I will be doing.
Sean,
ReplyDeleteI now feel like the most likely time for Israeli action is the 3 nights immediately after the talks end.
The talks are a foregone conclusion as far as I'm concerned (they won't yield a satisfactory result for Israel) and Israel will act swiftly in response.
Do you agree?
I'm no longer going to second guess PM Netanyahu and his cabinet's executive decision to send the IAF into harms way.
ReplyDeleteWe all know very well what needs to be done; we also should know that its entirely up to them to issue the execute order... or not issue it.
I'm just sittin' back and watching.
Sean,
ReplyDeleteWhy do you think the SECSTATE was sent to Jerusalem to meet with Netanyahu again so soon after the last meeting in Rome?
Is he just begging for more time on Iran now?
Mark,
ReplyDeleteI have no idea why... except to say that as I posted a little while ago, Bibi and Kerry did not discuss anything about Iran at their 7-hour Rome meeting. All they did was make on-camera policy position statements just after Bibi got out of his car. The 7-hour discussion was all about the "Palestinian" negotiations and the current plan to divide what God has given to Israel.
Woe to America and to Bibi and his government if this actually happens. I pray that Psalm 83 occurs first, for both America's and Netanyahu's sake.
In case anyone has forgotten...
ReplyDeleteA nuclear armed Iran will be able to close the Strait of Hormuz at will and maintain that closure, holding the West and all of the major oil producing nations of the GCC hostage to its demands.
This is what our government and the European Union appear ready to negotiate away barring some last minute flash of realization of what they are about to do.
Obama is saying if we don't lift the sanctions there will be war.
ReplyDeleteAn Iranian general says if the west makes one mistake there will be war.
Hezbollah chieftain Nasrallah says if the Iranian dispute does not end there shall be war.
Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu says if the sanctions are uplifted there shall be war.
Its like everyone is expecting there will be a war in the Middle-East soon.
And only Israel is prepared to take action.
Lujack,
ReplyDeleteThis is the worst of all possible scenarios. Here's why...
Actually, Hezbollah is also prepared. Their troops have been in real combat in Syria for many months, so fighting Israel would mean only pointing their weapons in a different direction. They are 100% combat capable and combat ready. They also have an established battle rhythm. Ditto for IRGC troops in Syria. Ditto for Syrian troops in Syria. And ditto for islamist and other rebel forces in Syria.
Israel's troops just have simulated warfare and exercise experience. It has been over 7 years since any Israeli soldier on the northern front has seen real combat.
There's a huge difference between these two forces preparedness.
Israel has combat superiority in the air, so they will have to rely heavily on that.
Tying down Israel air force with combat operations on the northern home front means there will likely not be an effective strike on the Iranian nuclear sites should the enemy launch a preemptive war against Israel in the very near term. HAMAS in Gaza will not remain content in such a scenario, this will preoccupy the IAF on the southern front as well.
Let us pray that the enemy does not seize the initiative and attack.