Sunday, November 17, 2013

OPERATION GIBOR: IRAN STRIKE SCENARIO SIMULATION

UPDATED 17 November 2013: This April 2009 report is once again relevant given the multiple reports of a potential Israel strike against Iranian nuclear sites the past several weeks. This potential for the fictional "Operation Gibor" scenario is as real in 2013-2014 as it was when created four years ago. It is perhaps even more relevant with respect to Bible eschatology and the prophecy of Jeremiah 49:34-39. 

21 April 2009: The following vignette (Part I) was crafted by my friend and associate Aharon Etengoff. Aharon is a former member of the IDF. This work originated with Aharon's former website known as WeaponSurvey.com.

When I read "Operation Gibor" for the first time I immediately recognized it as a near identical expression of how my own "minds eye" has envisioned a probable precursor event of the final Arab-Israeli war. This near-future war was predicted to occur by the Seer-Psalmist Asaph (Psalm 83) circa 3,000 years ago during the era of David's and Solomon's kingdom of Israel, and which I also suspect will eschatologically mesh with the prophetic events described by Jeremiah 49:34-39 and Isaiah 17, the latter resulting in the total and permanent destruction of Damascus, Syria. I strongly believe this vignette created by Aharon has a fairly high potential of becoming manifest in "tomorrow's" headlines and detailed after-action reports (AAR) originating with the IDF Public Affairs Office (PAO). The tactics that will be used in the real world event will immediately become required reading by the senior staff and war colleges of military forces around the world.
Iran Strike: Scenario Simulation

**The following entry was written for educational purposes only. These events are FICTIONAL; they have NOT occurred.**
 

Day 1, Operation Gibor:

05:30 Iranian Nuclear Program Targeted

The IDF (Israel Defense Forces), in accordance with a decision reached by the political echelon, has successfully targeted and destroyed dozens of Iranian nuclear facilities. The strike was executed by the (IAF) Israel Air Force, which deployed various combat aircraft to accomplish this important mission. A limited number of missiles were also launched at various sites engaged in the research and production of nuclear weapons.

President Ahmadinejad, who infamously referred to Israel as "disgraceful stain [on] the Islamic world" that needed to be "wiped from the pages of history" ultimately bears responsibility for the above-mentioned strike.

The IDF, which was formed to ensure the existence of the Jewish state, will do its utmost to protect the citizens of Israel from hostile entities and threats of any kind. The security establishment would like to take this opportunity to publicly warn against any retaliatory action, whether from Iran or any other country in the region.

06:30 NNEMP Activated Over Iranian Cities

At 05:30, the IDF announced the successful conclusion of Operation Gibor and warned the Islamic Republic of Iran against any retaliatory action. However, at 05:45, military intelligence (AMAN) observed heightened activity around various launch sites and military bases that indicated an imminent counter-strike. In addition, both the IRGC (Army of the Guardians of the Islamic Revolution) and regular Iranian military units began an emergency recall of reserve soldiers. Meanwhile, the Iranian Navy deployed in a formation designed to blockade the Strait of Hormuz.

The State of Israel conveyed several messages to the Iranian leadership via various diplomatic channels emphasizing that any retaliatory action would be met with force. These messages were ignored. At 06:07, the IAF activated a number of non-nuclear electromagnetic pulse (NNEMP) over major Iranian cities and strategic military sites to thwart further hostile action.

Simultaneously, Israeli naval vessels located in the Strait of Hormuz eliminated a number of Iranian warships that had moved to blockade the strategically vital shipping lane.

The IDF, which was formed to ensure the existence of the Jewish state, would like to warn once again that it will not tolerate any retaliatory action, whether from Iran or any other country in the region.

07:45 Iranian Proxies Retaliate

At 06:30, the IDF confirmed it had targeted major Iranian cities and military installations with non-nuclear electromagnetic pulse (NNEMP) to thwart a retaliatory strike by the Islamic Republic. At 06:45, a barrage of rockets were fired by Hizballah artillery crews into northern and central Israel. At 06:46, Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) terrorists launched at least 200 projectiles at southern and central Israel.

At 07:05, the IAF eliminated a number of Hizballah targets in southern Lebanon and Beirut. The IAF also destroyed numerous military installations and killed at least 75 operatives in the Gaza Strip.

The IDF now regards 'Gibor' as a rolling operation to eliminate terrorist infrastructure that threatens the very existence of this State.

Although the IDF chooses not to comment on rumors relating to unusual activity along the northern border, it would like to again emphasize that any hostile action will be met with appropriate force.

08:45 IDF Deploys in Gaza and Southern Lebanon

Over 360 Israelis have been killed and 2,000 injured in ongoing Hizballah and Hamas missile strikes. IDF infantry, armor and infantry forces have entered southern Lebanon in an effort to halt the brutal offensive.

In addition, IDF forces have split the Gaza Strip into three with the intention of systematically destroying terrorist infrastructure established by various terrorist organizations, including Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Global Jihad (Al Qaeda).

Gibor, which has evolved into a rolling operation, will require the participation of thousands of reserve soldiers. An emergency call-up order has just been approved by the political echelon.

10:30 Syria Launches Scud Missiles, IAF Responds

At 09:30, the IDF's Arrow batteries successfully intercepted at least a dozen Scud missiles launched by the Syrian Arab Republic. Nevertheless, two projectiles impacted in Haifa, killing 50 and wounding 120 others.

The IAF has responded by bombing the Syrian presidential palace and other strategic military targets, including nuclear, biological and chemical weapons facilities. The IDF estimates it has destroyed most of Syria's 100-200 Scud missiles, including those that were fitted with V-agent warheads, along with artillery shells loaded with Sarin and mustard agents.

In addition, the IAF has achieved aerial superiority over the Syrian air force after eliminating the majority of its aircraft and airfields inoperable.

IDF forces stationed on the Golan Heights remain poised to enter Syrian territory should such an order be given by the political and security echelons. 

Part II, Operation Gibor, Day 1

12:30 Missiles Strike Tel Aviv Residential Tower and Dimona

Two advanced missiles fired from the Gaza Strip have struck a residential tower in Tel Aviv. Although the Homefront Command had advised residents to seek shelter in protected spaces until further notice, an unspecified number of individuals chose to ignore the order and remained in the structure.

The missiles severely damaged the tower. At least 75 people were killed in the attack. An additional 50 are reported missing.

Terrorists in the Gaza Strip also launched three missiles at Dimona. While various strategic facilities remained unscathed, the projectiles caused severe damage to civilian infrastructure and killed 12. At least 34 others were wounded by shrapnel, debris and glass shards.

The IDF can confirm that Egyptian security officials have sealed off their side of Rafah. Engineers are currently demolishing dozens of structures that concealed tunnels used by Hamas to smuggle in vast quantities of weapons, explosives and missiles.

As was noted previously, large numbers of IDF forces are currently operating in various Gaza Strip neighborhoods in an effort to eliminate the terrorist infrastructure of various groups, including Hamas, Hizballah, Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Al Qaeda.

Residents of Israel have been instructed to remain in protected spaces until further notice.

13:30 Israeli-Arab Riots Reported

Despite orders to remain in protected spaces, Israeli-Arabs are currently rioting in a number of cities and neighborhoods, including Lod, Ramle, Jaffa, Haifa and Umm al-Fahm. Border police forces have fired tear gas and stun grenades in an effort to disperse the crowds without success. At least 15 security officials have been moderately injured in the worsening clashes.

An anonymous police official told Israel 24-7 that the use of live ammunition may soon be authorized to protect the lives of police officers.

13:45 Bi'lin Protestors Killed

Five protesters are shot dead after hurling rocks and firing improvised pistols at Israeli Border Police forces near the village of Bi'lin in the West Bank. Participants in the violent protests included Israeli and international anarchists, along with representatives of various NGOs.

14:08 Use of Live Ammunition Authorized The use of live ammunition against protesters in various Israeli-Arab neighborhoods has reportedly been authorized to quell violent riots that have already caused over NIS 100 million in damage. At least 10 Border Police officers have been killed in ongoing clashes in Jaffa and Haifa.

15:23 1,600 Missiles Fired at Israeli Targets

An anonymous security official tells Israel 24-7 that Hamas and Hizballah have fired over 1,600 missiles at Israel since the start of Operation Gibor.

"The firing can be expected to gradually taper off," explained the official. "The IAF is virtually swarming over Lebanon and the Gaza Strip. Unfortunately, at least 500 Israelis have died thus far. The IDF is exerting every effort to take control of the firing sites and hostile territory as soon as possible."

16:03 Riots Quelled

Violent riots in a number of Arab cities and neighborhoods, including Jaffa, Haifa, Lod, Ramle, and East Jerusalem have been quelled after officials authorized the use of live ammunition. 45 policemen were killed in clashes that include gunfire, the hurling of grenades and even the firing of RPGs. An additional 200 were wounded.

75 Israeli-Arabs were reportedly killed. The Arab media and NGOs are referring to the riots as "The Massacre of the Martyrs."

17:30 Missile Attacks Subside

Missile attacks by Hamas (Gaza Strip) and Hizballah (Lebanon) have subsided. The IAF has carried out hundreds of bombing sorties over Lebanon and Gaza. In addition, the IDF is continuing to fire artillery batteries along the Gaza Strip and Lebanese borders.

Arabic media reports that over 1,500 Palestinians have died in the Gaza Strip since the start of Operation Gibor. At least 1,200 people have been killed in Lebanon.

17:40 Egyptian Coup Attempt

The Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood is currently attempting to topple the regime of Hosni Mubarak.

Uncomfirmed reports indicate that the Egyptian military has been infiltrated by Brotherhood elements. Pitched battles between various units are being fought on the streets of major Egyptian cities, including Cairo and Alexandria. President Mubarak and a small entourage have moved to a secure location.

Note: Egyptian military expenditure has risen significantly over the past decade. Currently, the Egyptian Air Force includes 240 US-manufactured F-16's along with Apache helicopters. Cairo also maintains Abrams tanks and frigates as well as missiles boats from Holland, Spain and the United States.

Since 1996, three years after the Oslo Accords were signed with the Palestinian Authority, the majority of general military exercises undertaken by the Egyptian army have simulated war against Israel. Indeed, the 1996 Badar Exercises involved "a little country northeast of Egypt."

In addition, indoctrination of new Egyptian officers focuses on preparation for a possible future war against Israel.

Egyptian politicians have also threatened Israel with a nuclear strike. In July 2006, MP Ragab Hmeda pronounced that Israel was "trying to bring the entire world to its knees," and would be deterred only by "nuclear power." In February 2007, MP Mohammed el-Katatny declared that nothing would "work with Israel except for a nuclear bomb that wipes it out of existence."

18:00 Sunni-Shi'a Clashes Reported

Clashes between Sunni and Shi'a Muslims have been reported across the Middle East and Persian Gulf. Security forces are currently attempting to restore order in a number of countries, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Bahrain.

Although Arab governments were quick to publicly condemn Israel's strike against Iran's nuclear facilities, a number of "anonymous" officials have expressed their relief that the "Shi'a threat" had been removed.

18:03 Riots Across West Bank

The IDF, in coordination with the Palestinian Authority (PA), has imposed a closure across the West Bank as violent clashed erupt between various armed factions.
  • 10 Palestinian Authority policemen are killed when Hamas operatives attack a PA police station in Nablus with RPGs and grenades.
  • 5 Hamas members are killed by PA reprisal raids in the city.
  • Three separate drive-by shootings in Jericho kill a PA minister, four policemen and six children. Hamas has claimed responsibility for the attacks.
  • Palestinian Islamic Jihad operatives detonate a car bomb on a crowded Ramallah street, killing 30 and wounding 50 others.
  • IDF forces are currently operating to secure an unspecified number of Israeli communities in the West Bank. Exchanges of fire have been reported in Beit Aryeh, Ofrah, Tapuah, Shilo, Eli, Ariel, Elkanah, Efrat, Bat Ayin, Yitzhar, Beit El, Hebron (sector) and various areas of Gush Etzion.
  • Israeli communities inside the so-called "green line" have also come under missile fire (originating from the West Bank), including Bat Hefer, Kfar Sabba, Rannana and Petah Tikva.
  • Unconfirmed reports indicate that a number of projectiles may have impacted inside the perimeter of Ben Gurion airport.
  • The airport is currently re-routing all air traffic to Eilat. Outgoing flights have been delayed.
18:30 Hashemite Royal Family Arrives in EilatThe Hashemite royal family, accompanied by aides and officials, has arrived in Eilat for "consultations with the Israeli government." Unconfirmed reports indicate that violent protests have swept through Jordan. The Jordanian army, apparently aided by Israeli "advisors," is working to restore order, starting with Amman.

18:40 Tel Aviv "Peace" VigilRepresentatives and supporters of the Israeli "peace camp" are demonstrating against Operation Gibor in Tel Aviv's Rabin Square.

"The IDF needs to show restraint," said one protestor draped in Palestinian and Israeli flags. "It cannot trample on the rights of Jews, Arabs and Christians all over the world."

Hundreds of counter-protestors have gathered to oppose the "peace demonstration" and support Operation Gibor.

19:04 Simultaneous Bus Bombings ReportedTerrorists have apparently detonated bombs inside and in close proximity to at least four buses in the following cities:
  • Jerusalem (near Ben Yehudah street)
  • Petah Tikvah (Jabotinsky street)
  • Tel Aviv (near the "Kiryah")
  • Ramat Gan (diamond district)
At least 150 people are reported dead, including 65 youths.

18:45 Jewish Insitutions Targeted in the UK, US, Europe and Canada

To be continued in Part III... (Part III was not written by the original author, however the prophecies referenced in Jeremiah 49:34-39, Isaiah 17, Psalm 83 and a host of others discussed on this Eschatology Today blog can serve to complete this fictional story.)

10 comments:

Rapture Forums said...

Wow!! Those are two very realistic scenarios that very well could be played out soon. We all need to pray for the Peace of Jerusalem.

Vicente de Paulo said...

Great! my congratulations! you have an excellent Blog. Eschatology is a very important theology theme for all cristians in the world. i will always be passing here, because a need to learn more about it.
God Bless you.

SeanOsborne said...

Rapture Forums,

Yes, indeed. This could well be the "play by play" of at least the opening salvo of the Pslam 83 fulfillment.

Vincente,

Thank you. I have hadso many "irons in the fire" lately that putting additional material up has been difficult at best. Later today there should be some new material posted.

hartdawg said...

Do you think an attack on Iran by Israel is likely before elections or is it mostly rumours? i keep hearing (intentionally???) conflicting reports

SeanOsborne said...

Well, the time period of "the next 12 weeks" takes us right up to the virtual doorstep of the US election.

For this reason I believe Israel is going to turn off Iran's electrical grid with EMP as the fictional scenario postulates.

Mimimal damage or casualties among a few other benefits.

Great Grany 5 said...

Sean,
what response from Iran can we expect in the event of such an attack as above? If there are indeed sleeper cells in the US/EU and any other country that has supported Israel, will those allies of Persia attempt to retaliate against them or should we just expect the carnage to take place in the ME?
My how I wish we could look forward to peace, peace but instead, sudden destruction.

Shalom, GG5

SeanOsborne said...

GG5 asked:

"What response from Iran can we expect in the event of such an attack as above?"

Well... if the leading edge of an Israeli EMP strike is as robust as I believe it will have to be, and I believe that level to be an over-riding necessity, an EMP strike will have to be orders of magnitude into the 'robust' category, and accordingly there should be a minimal - if any - serious response response from within Iranian borders.

Lebanon (Hezbollah) and Syria would likely be the proxies to strike back, and they would likely do so with Bio/Chem weaponry.

Isaiah 17.

I also tend to think that a full-scope Israeli EMP strike will set a world record of sorts.

Firstly, because no nation has ever launched such an attack as this before, and second, because the IDF has been planning for this Op for a very long time.

I believe the IDF general staff has planned to risk a minimal number of pilots in the first wave EMP strike in order to ensure that a second wave EMP strike sets Iranian electrical infrastructure back to the year 1850 or thereabouts. Including their tracked or wheeled-vehicle mobile rocket forces.

Remember, Iran's electrical infrastructure is no where near the level that most European nations much less that of the US or Canada.

All the additional electrical power being produced by the Bushehr reactor would almost certainly be kaput.

And an EMP strike would likely render moot any deeply buried WMD sites... on whatever path copper or aluminum high power cables carry electricity to underground consumers, a significant EMP on the surface is sure to follow.

The total Persian absence from Psalm 83 activity is a key eschatological indicator IMHO.

And the prophesied re-emergence of Iran as a minor player in the Ezekiel 38/39 scenario some time later is another key indicator IMHO to the level of strategic and tactical success an Israeli preemptive EMP strike would have.

The best that Iran could hope for in the way of retaliation would be through sleeper cell terrorists already here in North America, and which I would hope our counter-terrorist forces have a good handle on at this point.

hartdawg said...

Very good analysis but one thing still puzzles me, wouldn't a conventional or even nuclear attack on Iran's facilities be more in keeping with Jeremiah 49 and the destruction of elam than an emp?

SeanOsborne said...

hartdawg,

That's the first thing that happens in the Operation Gibor scenario at 0530.

Great Grany 5 said...

Sean,
it all makes sense and besides the WOW factor such an attack would cause, it surely would have a paralyzing effect on other Israel Haters around the world. It would also paralyze their ability to communicate, Period. That will be a nice respite; not being tormented by the man, nicknamed the Dinner Jacket, anymore.

Won't it also (the EMP)have some residual affect on Iraq in so much as bordering land mass? There are so many questions but the study of EMP and Solar eruptions isn't one of my strong points. But I do have a killer recipe for Lemon Chess Pie and as soon as the temps get below 100 degrees, the oven gets turned on again.

Shalom, GG5