Friday, April 21, 2017

Global SITREP B10-17: The Syrian Situation Revisited Part IV


Smoke rises from Al-Quneitra with Mt. Hermon as a backdrop.
UPDATE 28 April 2017: There is enough corroborating foreign media OSINT available to report that an Israeli fire mission also occurred early this week (Monday, 24 April) as another warning to Tehran, Damascus and Moscow. The IDF fired three high-precision ground-to-ground missiles from a position on the Golan destroying a Hezbollah armory within the al-Fawwar camp just outside of Quneitra, Syria.  

The al-Fawwar camp has been manned by Hezbollah-trained, pro-Assad conscripts known as (Syrian) National Defense Forces, or 'the Golan troop.' The three IDF missiles struck the intended target causing multiple high-order secondary explosions which obliterated the Hezbollah armory. It is also important to note that due to Moscow's failure to make any attempt to rein in the IRGC-commanded militias and Hezbollah forces closing in the Golan border the IDF missile strike occurred without Israel using the established hot line to inform Russian military forces in Syria of the fire mission it launched. In other words, IDF ground forces (Northern Command) are not communicating with Russian ground forces in Syria. Such silence equates to overt hostility.

Later in the day yesterday the IDF fired a Patriot air defense missile which intercepted and destroyed a probable Iranian drone that had just penetrated into Israeli airspace from Syria. In addition there a newspaper reports from Beirut, Lebanon stating the Syria has prepared four Scud missiles with half-ton warheads for launching against targets in Israel without warning. The situation on the Northern Front is currently as dangerous and unpredictable than it has been in decades.

27 April 2017: It has now become abundantly clear that the retreat of Syria's best remaining combat aircraft northward to Hmeimim Air Base leaves the whole of southern Syria open to Israel's best fighter aircraft, of which the F-35I 'Adir' is now firmly established at the top of the IAF's power pyramid. 

Early this morning there occurred a series of at least 5 major explosions followed by a huge fireball at the Damascus International Airport. Eschatology Today assesses that the only Israeli aircraft which could have conducted this stealthy strike would be the F-35I. No one saw them arrive, or leave, No Syrian or Russian air defense reaction occurred. 

There is also the near-admission of responsibility for this strike by Israeli Intelligence Minister, Yisrael Katz, who stated during an Israel Army Radio interview today, "We are acting to prevent the transfer of sophisticated weapons from Syria to Hezbollah in Lebanon by Iran." Hezbollah's al-Manar radio agreed with Minister Katz in its own report.

We have known in recent month about Israel keeping close tabs on the Iranian/Hezbollah military advances on the slopes of Mt. Hermon and toward Quneitra on the Golan. This advance is intolerable from the Israeli perspective; Israel will never allow and Iranian Hezbollah to establish permanent bases in southern Syria. The presence of Syria's more elite forces (4th Mechanized Div/42nd Bde) mixed in with the advancing Iranian/Hezbollah columns provide no cover whatsoever. That Israel is striking to the rear of the advance of these forces of late (T4 strike and now Damascus Airport) must be seen as a clear warning by Israel of far, far worse to come should these advances continue.

Here's the current tactical picture and Israel's highly likely response to it. With Russia's tacit approval, the attempt to establish an Iranian/Hezbollah front against Israel from the Mediterranean Sea in southern Lebanon pivoting on Mt. Hermon and then through southern Syria southeastwards to the Golan Heights will leave Israel no other option than to execute its recently developed Gideon Doctrine into practice. Readers may recall we discussed this on Eschatology Today when the Gideon Doctrine was suddenly released in its sanitized public-release form in late 2015.

Eschatology Today believes there is a direct correlation between the warfighting foretold through the prophecies of Isaiah 17, Joshua 13 and Psalm 83 and Israel's "Gideon Doctrine." 

Simply put, the Gideon Doctrine is a warfighting doctrine which is based upon a very few key principles mirroring the national goals of the State of Israel and the current realities of the region.

1) Israel has no officially declared borders; 
2) Preserve Israel's values and character as a Jewish state; 
3) Secure the social and economic strength of the State of Israel; 
4) Secure regional and international status of the State of Israel while seeking peace. 

In order to accomplish these objectives the Gideon Doctrine recognizes that when war becomes an inevitability Israel must use the totality of all its military power in an overwhelming, offensive manner to crush all enemy forces. Therefore, the coming war can be seen as a preemptive no-holds-barred war to achieve the four key principles noted above. And when it happens, it will in all likelihood come without further warning.
  

Russian Air Defense Systems currently deployed to Syria

21 April 2017:  OSINT reports on the transfer of the remaining air worthy fixed wing aircraft  of Bashar al-Assad's remaining air force to Russia's Hmeimim Air Base south of Latakia  is confirmed. This redeployment effectively places the Syrian Arab Air Force under direct Russian air defense protection of the S-300 and S-400 AD systems. This is a prudent move as these antique Syrian aircraft of 1980's vintage have zero chance of surviving air-to-air combat with either the state-of-the-art IAF or US combat aircraft.

Note the new image above. The Russian AD systems did not give pause to Israel's air strike against the T4 air base recently. The IAF strike aircraft were well within the Russian air defense capabilities umbrella. The IAF aircraft must have been invisible to the Russian's state-of-the-art electronic warfare and radar systems at Hmeimim Air Base, or the Russian's simply allowed the devastating IAF strike to occur on their Syrian and Iranian/Hezbollah allies. Which of these possibilities is more plausible to you?

Knowing what's coming according to Bible prophecy makes the daily passage of time seem like watching individual grains of sand fall through the hourglass. However, today's exchange of mortar fire from the Syrian side and IDF artillery returning fire on the Syrian mortar positions serves to remind that there are  any number of fuses that could ignite the northern front.

Yesterday, 24 April 2017, the U.S. Trump Administration took the largely irrelevant step of placing economic sanctions on 271 individuals having direct ties to the Syrian chemical weapons program (CERS). Sanctions have never worked as a political tool, and this instance will be no exception in the history of economic sanctions.


32 comments:

Great Grany 5 said...

Sean,

No problem with that one because WE ALL KNOW who never slumbers nor sleeps and there is nothing in the world or creation that HE doesn't know all of the details about and has the means to defeat each and everyone of the Deceivers handily and all of the NATIONS WILL TREMBLE at His responses to the masterminds of all rebellion.

Can you tell that I am ready to get my combat boots on, whether they are clean or not? If our names are written in the Lamb's Book of Life and we know it, then we all have the ability to call forth the vast army of God to defeat evil right where it is being formulated.

Now on to getting to drive my car again today. Not since August 19, 2015 when I broke two of my fingers after being tossed out of a little kids playground swing. That was the beginning of having the beginning heart attacks that lead up to my emergency triple bypass surgery in Ft. Smith, AR on 11 Dec. 2015. Long story short, the surgeon that did my bypass told my hubby that I would never be able to drive again, would spend my duration of life in a nursing home and probably not live more than a year at the most. HERE I AM and I live at home now with my hubby, cook and clean, go shopping with him and never been in a nursing home let alone even consider that avenue. Now I am going to drive to the post office to mail my first package and what a celebration that will be. All on my own!

All of the credit belongs to my ABBA FATHER and HIS PRECIOUS SON, because when I was having those heart attacks every day and couldn't get in to see a doctor, ABBA took care of me and reversed everything that was pronounced by the unsaved but learned men of science.

GG5/SHALOM, SHALOM

jmoll106 said...

Well GG5, I for one am very thankful God has kept you with us. Your encouraging words were missed back in 2015.
As for Syria, the picture is getting clearer. Once Is 17 and Ps 83 finish, that hook will surely draw Gog and his hordes to their demise especially after his embarrassing defeat in Syria.

Kevneto said...

You can't keep a good Christian sister down! God bless you dear lady! Man can say one thing, but The Lord has the final say! Glad you are doing so well and enjoy your posts!

Kevin

Anonymous said...

Here, here to what Jmoll and Kevin wrote above. Thank you so much, GG5, for your thoughtful comments on this blog. Your family is blessed to have such a wise lady who can discern and understand the eventful times in which we live. More importantly, they have an excellent model of a prayer warrior who leads by example. May our God bless you today and always. And may He bless Sean for hosting a blog that invites thoughtful reader contributions. We all benefit and learn for the open dialogue posted here. So thank you, sir, for everything you do.

- Brian from Florida

Great Grany 5 said...

Sean, and all of my brothers here on his very dearly appreciated blog:

What a great surprise you all have given me and I so cherish the encouragement and prayers you all have raised up for me in the past. ONLY GOD and I mean that truthfully and much more than I can put into mere mortals words. Thank you again.

As far as being wise sometimes I get the feeling that my family kinda smirks and winks when I want to share just how magnificent our Lord and Savior really is but that's alright. He will prove it all to them just as He has done with me. And is still doing. Along time ago our Sean turned a lot of lights on for me as regards "thus saith the Lord" and he is still doing so for all of us.

Right now I wish you could all smell the great fragrance coming out of my kitchen from my big batch of chocolate chip cookies done the healthy way. I mean, is there a way to do chocolate chip cookies in a healthy manner and still be good? Yep and hubby is still smiling and crunching.

I can't remember now what I was going to post but later I am sure the Holy Spirit will renew my memory if it was supposed to be shared.

GG5/SHALOM

Sean Osborne said...

GG5,

Faithful, watching with patience always - this is our sister in Christ.

89rscam said...

Sean,

That pic is a Mig24 =)

Ken B

Sean Osborne said...

KenB,

There was never any such aircraft made in the USSR/Russian Federation by the Mikoyan-Gurevich (MiG) design bureau as the MiG-24.

There was the MiG-23 Flogger and the MiG-25 Foxbat, but nothing in between.

Sean Osborne said...

By the way, Syria does have MiG-29M/M2 Fulcrum fighters and MiG-31E Foxhound fighters. These are rately if ever seen.

Sean Osborne said...

The jet at the top is definitely an Su-24. Caption has been edited to reflect this.

89rscam said...

Sean,

What is the purpose of placing these planes under Russian control? Just to stop them from being targeted by the U.S.?

It seems like the bulk of bombing going on in Syria at this point is Russia anyways...

Have these Syrian aircraft been participating in a lot of missions? They look in horrible condition! Although that was always one of the "points" to Russian aircraft.

Thank you!
Ken B

Sean Osborne said...

Ken,

"OSINT reports on the transfer of the remaining air worthy fixed wing aircraft of Bashar al-Assad's remaining air force to Russia's Hmeimim Air Base south of Latakia is confirmed. This redeployment effectively places the Syrian Arab Air Force under direct Russian air defense protection of the S-300 and S-400 AD systems."

Syria's fixed-win aircraft are not under Russian control; they are under the Russian air defense umbrella.

Sean Osborne said...

Look at the new map in this SITREP. Compare it to the map I created about a month ago to include within SITREP B3-17: Northern Front Action.

Any question if the IAF aircraft were within the Russian air defense umbrella?

Does it now appear more or less likely that Israel's newly acquired stealthy F-35I "Adir" struck the T4 Air Base in mid-March 2017?

Jenny said...

Three additional F-35I "Adir" were delivered to Israel on Holocaust Memorial Day...

Drops mic! BOOM

Hee hee hee,
Jenny


*Sean, I've having major issues accessing this blog. Anyone else reporting troubles?

WorkOfGrace said...

I am often getting, "Server cannot be found" errors when accessing this blog.

Sean Osborne said...

There are no obvious access issues that I am aware of with Blogger. Gonna double check too make sure.

jmoll106 said...

No problems from the northeast

Sean Osborne said...

Eschatology Today now uses https instead of http for the added bit of security it provides between your browser and this blog site.

Dave said...

No problems in the southwest

89rscam said...

Sean,

Seeing that Damascus is at the edge of the innermost "air defense" circle from the previous diagram you posted... I smiled this morning as I read about the air strike from Reuters!

I think we are seeing the capabilities of Russia vs. the capabilities of Israel and the U.S. developed technology. I hope Putin realizes this but doubt he will..

Maranatha!
Ken B

jmoll106 said...

I wonder why Iran hasn't used their 5th generation IAIO Qaher-313 stealth fighter, maybe it's like their aircraft carrier/barge. :)
So far, it would seem Syria's/Russia's red lines in the sand are like our previous presidents.
Israel is motivated to protect their country by their desire to exist. That's motivation.


Anonymous said...

Sean,

Good uptodate analysis with you as usual: - the patterns of the unfolding long "war" we are seeing/in are getting clearer it seems - Israel is getting more determined to win this, at all costs, and one wonders when the Gideon principle will lead to inevitability of her penultimate "Samson option" to deliver the final blow to gain her long sort eretz/peace - the nuclear strike against the Islamic and Russian enemies... Thus biblical prophetic forfillment of course with Messiah Jesus's mighty sword in aid of Israel.....

Ok, Russian - Putin counter efforts almost certain - feverish efforts to counter Israels new stealth aircraft, and what do you access as the capabilities of the latest generation Russian AD technology - the S-500 system......, soon to be seen perhaps brought to Syrian soil or coastal waters ??.....

Marantha,

Rob
------

Anonymous said...

Hand onto your hats brothers and sisters ! :

Sean, have you caught up with this breaking report ? : Trump probably will make a flying visit to Jerusalem in may - thus he may annouce then solid plans to move US Embassy to where it and all embassies should be - the earthly city of our King of Kings Jesus !!!!. (http://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-us-eyeing-trump-visit-on-may-22-23/).

If so we can see the prophetic red carpet being laid out rapidly - the embassy move would be a red rag to Israel's enemies, including the deluded "strong bulls of bashan" sneaking about on the Golan - Mount Hermon...... May us readers discern who this is by the Word and Spirit of our G-d....

Maranantha !

Rob
-------

Sean Osborne said...

The Qaher-313 is a charade.

Israel knows the since Trump became POTUS he has Israel's back. Israel's enemies now know this as well.

Sean Osborne said...

Rob,

The Almaz Antey S-500 system needs testing over the next few years to become combat effective. After that is will be rougly equivalent to what the US has had for years now and Israel is deploying as we speak.

Nora said...

"The Times of Israel reports: US President Donald Trump refused to confirm reports that he would announce the transfer of the US Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem during a visit to Israel next month, but hinted Thursday that he may clarify the issue at that time."

Maybe he refused to confirm it because of tactical reasons but it could also happen that he'll decide not to move the embassy (as for now). The 22-23th of May is (circa) 3 weeks away, a lot could happen within 3 weeks, even war could break out between Israel and her enemies until then.

Sean Osborne said...

This is about Syria, and nothing but Syria. There's nothing in Isaiah 17 or Jeremiah 49:23-27 about a diversion or a protest.

89rscam said...

Sean,

It appears there was another strike on Syrian targets but I dont know how to verify... Syria denies and Israel is always coy =)



This is from ynet
"The Assad regime rejects reports of an IAF attack on a base belonging to the 90th brigade in southern Quneitra, where explosions were reported on Saturday night."

"The source said the arms depot gets a major part of the weapons supplied to an array of Iranian backed militias, led by Hezbollah, which have thousands of fighters engaged in some of the toughest fronts against Syrian rebels.

Intelligence Minister Yisrael Katz said such a strike would be in line with Israeli policy, but stopped short of taking responsibility for it.

Katz wouldn't comment directly on the strike Thursday morning but said "it absolutely matches our declared policy, a policy that we also implement."

Maranatha!
Ken B

Sean Osborne said...

It is possible that Iranian, Hezbollah and Syrian forces approaching the Golan are requesting area rebels to give them passage to the border (Quneitra crossing) as their goal is to fight Israel.

Sean Osborne said...

Yes, something did go bad for the Syrian 90th Bde base near Quneitra. There is a semi-covert war ongoing on the Syrian side of the Golan, and it could erupt into what this SITREP discusses without notice.

jmoll106 said...

Hey Sean, The missile that was launched and intercepted was a 200kg warhead. What would be the damage from one of those?

Sean Osborne said...

It wasn't intercepted... I hear it was intentionally aborted, because the trajectory would have taken it into Russian territory near Vladivostok.

There was no warhead on the test missile, but it was designed to carry a 200kT warhead which is a pretty standard size warhead for that missile's designed throw weight. Its yield is only a theoretical estimate, about 20 times that of Fat Man/Nagasaki. A city killer.