Global SITREP B10-17: The Syrian Situation Revisited Part IV



Smoke rises from Al-Quneitra with Mt. Hermon as a backdrop.

UPDATE 28 April 2017: There is enough corroborating foreign media OSINT available to report that an Israeli fire mission also occurred early this week (Monday, 24 April) as another warning to Tehran, Damascus and Moscow. The IDF fired three high-precision ground-to-ground missiles from a position on the Golan destroying a Hezbollah armory within the al-Fawwar camp just outside of Quneitra, Syria.  

The al-Fawwar camp has been manned by Hezbollah-trained, pro-Assad conscripts known as (Syrian) National Defense Forces, or 'the Golan troop.' The three IDF missiles struck the intended target causing multiple high-order secondary explosions which obliterated the Hezbollah armory. It is also important to note that due to Moscow's failure to make any attempt to rein in the IRGC-commanded militias and Hezbollah forces closing in the Golan border the IDF missile strike occurred without Israel using the established hot line to inform Russian military forces in Syria of the fire mission it launched. In other words, IDF ground forces (Northern Command) are not communicating with Russian ground forces in Syria. Such silence equates to overt hostility.

Later in the day yesterday the IDF fired a Patriot air defense missile which intercepted and destroyed a probable Iranian drone that had just penetrated into Israeli airspace from Syria. In addition there a newspaper reports from Beirut, Lebanon stating the Syria has prepared four Scud missiles with half-ton warheads for launching against targets in Israel without warning. The situation on the Northern Front is currently as dangerous and unpredictable than it has been in decades.

27 April 2017: It has now become abundantly clear that the retreat of Syria's best remaining combat aircraft northward to Hmeimim Air Base leaves the whole of southern Syria open to Israel's best fighter aircraft, of which the F-35I 'Adir' is now firmly established at the top of the IAF's power pyramid. 

Early this morning there occurred a series of at least 5 major explosions followed by a huge fireball at the Damascus International Airport. Eschatology Today assesses that the only Israeli aircraft which could have conducted this stealthy strike would be the F-35I. No one saw them arrive, or leave, No Syrian or Russian air defense reaction occurred. 

There is also the near-admission of responsibility for this strike by Israeli Intelligence Minister, Yisrael Katz, who stated during an Israel Army Radio interview today, "We are acting to prevent the transfer of sophisticated weapons from Syria to Hezbollah in Lebanon by Iran." Hezbollah's al-Manar radio agreed with Minister Katz in its own report.

We have known in recent month about Israel keeping close tabs on the Iranian/Hezbollah military advances on the slopes of Mt. Hermon and toward Quneitra on the Golan. This advance is intolerable from the Israeli perspective; Israel will never allow and Iranian Hezbollah to establish permanent bases in southern Syria. The presence of Syria's more elite forces (4th Mechanized Div/42nd Bde) mixed in with the advancing Iranian/Hezbollah columns provide no cover whatsoever. That Israel is striking to the rear of the advance of these forces of late (T4 strike and now Damascus Airport) must be seen as a clear warning by Israel of far, far worse to come should these advances continue.

Here's the current tactical picture and Israel's highly likely response to it. With Russia's tacit approval, the attempt to establish an Iranian/Hezbollah front against Israel from the Mediterranean Sea in southern Lebanon pivoting on Mt. Hermon and then through southern Syria southeastwards to the Golan Heights will leave Israel no other option than to execute its recently developed Gideon Doctrine into practice. Readers may recall we discussed this on Eschatology Today when the Gideon Doctrine was suddenly released in its sanitized public-release form in late 2015.

Eschatology Today believes there is a direct correlation between the warfighting foretold through the prophecies of Isaiah 17, Joshua 13 and Psalm 83 and Israel's "Gideon Doctrine." 

Simply put, the Gideon Doctrine is a warfighting doctrine which is based upon a very few key principles mirroring the national goals of the State of Israel and the current realities of the region.

1) Israel has no officially declared borders; 

2) Preserve Israel's values and character as a Jewish state; 

3) Secure the social and economic strength of the State of Israel; 

4) Secure regional and international status of the State of Israel while seeking peace. 

In order to accomplish these objectives the Gideon Doctrine recognizes that when war becomes an inevitability Israel must use the totality of all its military power in an overwhelming, offensive manner to crush all enemy forces. Therefore, the coming war can be seen as a preemptive no-holds-barred war to achieve the four key principles noted above. And when it happens, it will in all likelihood come without further warning.
  

Russian Air Defense Systems currently deployed to Syria

21 April 2017:  OSINT reports on the transfer of the remaining air worthy fixed wing aircraft  of Bashar al-Assad's remaining air force to Russia's Hmeimim Air Base south of Latakia  is confirmed. This redeployment effectively places the Syrian Arab Air Force under direct Russian air defense protection of the S-300 and S-400 AD systems. This is a prudent move as these antique Syrian aircraft of 1980's vintage have zero chance of surviving air-to-air combat with either the state-of-the-art IAF or US combat aircraft.

Note the new image above. The Russian AD systems did not give pause to Israel's air strike against the T4 air base recently. The IAF strike aircraft were well within the Russian air defense capabilities umbrella. The IAF aircraft must have been invisible to the Russian's state-of-the-art electronic warfare and radar systems at Hmeimim Air Base, or the Russian's simply allowed the devastating IAF strike to occur on their Syrian and Iranian/Hezbollah allies. Which of these possibilities is more plausible to you?

Knowing what's coming according to Bible prophecy makes the daily passage of time seem like watching individual grains of sand fall through the hourglass. However, today's exchange of mortar fire from the Syrian side and IDF artillery returning fire on the Syrian mortar positions serves to remind that there are  any number of fuses that could ignite the northern front.

Yesterday, 24 April 2017, the U.S. Trump Administration took the largely irrelevant step of placing economic sanctions on 271 individuals having direct ties to the Syrian chemical weapons program (CERS). Sanctions have never worked as a political tool, and this instance will be no exception in the history of economic sanctions.