Global SITREP D1-18: The End-Game in Syria?

Russian IL-22M Coot-A ELINT Aircraft (a/k/a IL-18D-36 Bizon)

18 September 2018:  At approximately 11 PM IDT a very large-scale Israeli missile attack from the Mediterranean Sea against Syrian-Iranian targets in the area of Latakia, Syria commenced. Huge fireballs erupted in the area around a technical facility linked to the production of missiles and chemical munitions and storage warehouses used by Iran to transfer war materiel to Lebanese Hezbollah. 

Iran uses this location adjacent to the Russian Hmeimim Air Base and its air defense system in an attempt to cover their preparations for war against Israel. Israel immediately recognized the critical and intolerable nature of what the Iranians were doing with Syrian government acquiescence in the area adjecent to Hmeimim Air Base.

As the IAF strike mission completed and the Israeli F16I Sufa's had recovered back into Israeli airspace, a Russian IL-22M Coot-A ELINT aircraft enroute to recover at Hmeimim Air Base following an intellgence collection mission over Idlib goverorate, was shotdown with 15 crew members on board by "excessive and inaccurate" Syrian air defense fire. 

Initial Russian comments made by Ministry of Defense personnel blamed Israel for the loss of their aircraft, stating that the IAF strike was an "irresponsible action" in that the IAF had deliberately used the IL-22M as cover against Syrian anti-air fire. The Russian MoD spokeperson, Igor Konashenkov, made a threat of retaliation against Israel in what he termed wered "irresponsible actions of the Israeli military," and a "hostile act."

A Russian MoD flight profile map as published by the BBC can be seen below. Subsequent reports say that Russian President Vladimir Putin has characterized the shhotdown as "a chain of tragic and chance circumstances." What it means is that the Syrian anti-aircrat system operators were completely spooked by the intense middile of the night IAF strike and continued to fire wildly at anything in the air off the Syrian coastline. In U.S. military parlance, this was a 'Murphy's Law" event. Tragic, completely avoidable, but the direct result of Iranian war preparations within Syrian territory for which the Syrian government bears full responsibility.

Also concurrent with the aftermath of the IAF strike the Russian media were also reporting that the recently commissioned French FREMM-class frigate, FF-D654 Auvergne, was also launching missiles into Syria. The French Ministry of defense has vehemently denied any role in the downing of the Russian aircraft or that their frigate launched missiles of any kind. The Russian reports have been characterized by the French Ambassador to the United States as Russia having gone mad with their "fake news" reports.

These are the type of events in northwestern Syria and off its coastline that Eschatology Today has for the past three years put forward as a strong potential leading edge in the fulfillment of Jeremiah 49:23-27, and Isaiah 17. From Global SITREP D6-15, posted on 15 September 2015, we have the following excerpt:

"15 September 2015: I believe it would serve us well to look closely at the passage below from Jeremiah 49. Verse 23 is referring directly to that swath of territory in northwestern Syria adjacent to the Eastern Mediterranean seacoast, from the Turkish border to the Lebanese border, and which is currently known as the Governorates of Aleppo, Idlib, Hama, Latakia and Tartus. Hamath is the modern-day the city of Hama, and Arpad is located in the present day city of Tell Rifaat in Aleppo.

Jeremiah 49:23-27

 Against Damascus.

“Hamath and Arpad are shamed,
For they have heard bad news.
They are fainthearted;
There is trouble on the sea;
It cannot be quiet.
²⁴ Damascus has grown feeble;
She turns to flee,
And fear has seized her.
Anguish and sorrows have taken her like a woman in labor.
²⁵ Why is the city of praise not deserted, the city of My joy?
²⁶ Therefore her young men shall fall in her streets,
And all the men of war shall be cut off in that day,” says the Lord of hosts.
²⁷ “I will kindle a fire in the wall of Damascus,
And it shall consume the palaces of Ben-Hadad.”"

By now virtually all regular readers here are very aware of this. The question now is, have we arrived at the point of no return; the point where the war in Syria, in which many nations are militarily directly involved, makes a turn from an active process to actual fulfillment? Based upon the final words of verse 23, there will be more to come in terms of "trouble on the sea" where two opposing naval armadas may find themselves in recept of legitimate or illegitimate orders to push buttons in hostile or pre-emptive strikes against the other. 

Final Word 19 September 2018: Russia will be looking for retribution. Despite the good cop (Putin) bad cop (Shoigu) PR act of yesterday, Russia will want retribution. Here's our link within this situation to Ezekiel 38/39. This will require a good amount of patience from fellow eschatologists. Several other prophetic events must take place first.

Global SITREP A3-18: SYRIA

A convoy of U.S. Army Stryker M1126 combat vehicles on-the-move in northern Syria

Update 18 January 2018: Speaking at Stanford University yesterday, U.S. SECSTATE Rex Tillerson confirmed what is stated below - U.S. troops are staying put in Syria, primarily as a hedge against Iranian military expansion within Syria. He also made clear that the U.S. is not willing to give up to the Al-Assad regime the territory that the CJTF-OIR Coalition forces have under their military control in northern and eastern Syria. SECSTATE Tillerson made clear that this policy is guarding against the error made by the Obama Administration through unilateral U.S. withdrawal from Iraq in 2010-2011. 

Is it now a fact that U.S. forces have secured all of Syria east of the Euphrates River. The prophetic implications for what happens in Syria to the west of the Euphrates River are blatantly obvious to the astute student of Bible prophecy, especially with respect to Israel (all the land to the Euphrates).

Anyone can plainly see this places the U.S. in theater conflict with the interests of the Al-Assad regime, militarily supported by Russia, Iran/Hezbollah and other pro-regime militias, as well as Turkey which stands opposed to Kurdish autonomy. The geographical map of what was, is and will be Syria is being redrawn by this new American anti-Assad policy. American defense of Israel against Iran is also a cold, hard, crystal clear fact.

Speaking of Turkey, a recent news item revealed that Turkey and Sudan have an agreement to turn over a small Sudanese island on their Red Sea coast to Turkey for re-development as a gateway into the Arabian peninsula. This island's redeveloped utility will be more fully realized as a probable invasion staging ground into southern Israel for the Ezekiel 38/39 prophetic fulfillment.

12 January 2018: It's on! To dispense with all manner of diplomatic speak, it's on in Syria. The US, Israel and allies versus Iran, Russia, Syria and, perhaps for the moment, Turkey standing against the two in accord with its own interests in Syria. 

A report on The Hill published yesterday afternoon confirms reports appearing in several foreign media, the gist of which is that the US has reversed its stance from an agreed upon strategic withdrawal of US forces from Syria (following the eradication of Islamic State forces) in the face of a blatant continuation of Iranian military aggression in the country. The strategic reversal applies to not only Iranian moves in Syria, but also its overt control of Iraq. We're not wiping out Islamic State just so that Iran can walk in and take over all the territory from its border with Iraq to the Mediterranean Sea. Not gonna happen. Period.

Earlier this week, both the US and Israel detected the Iranian transfer of "game changing" military hardware into the Syrian theater of operation. Such hardware is utterly unnecessary with Islamic State having been nearly eradicated. Such hardware was easily identifiable as destined for use against Israel. Accordingly, the US promptly green-lighted the Israeli annihilation of every ounce of that military equipment. Israel completed that specific mission on Tuesday of this past week. Message sent. Israel used both strike aircraft and surface-to-surface missiles in three distinct waves following as many battle damage assessments to ensure the total annihilation of the Iranian equipment.

Now that "it's on" the watch for military developments in Syria will have to be 24/7. The next update will be in the form of a SYRIA Part II SITREP.


9 January 2018: It appears the attack discussed below was more high-tech than anyone, including Russia, suspected. It appears now that the 82mm mortars (Weight = 7 lb. 2 oz. or 3.23kg) were not fired from a 2B9M Vasilek mortar-gun, but were transported undetected by a flight of semi-autonomous combat drones programmed to fly to specific GPS (Global Positioning System) coordinates. The correct nomenclature for combat drones such as these pending a more precise identification is UCAV (Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicle).

Intact and lightly damaged "bombs" recovered from enemy UCAVs at Hmeimim Air Base

Example of a captured Islamic State UCAV

On Friday, 6 January 2018 a swarm of 13 UCAVs flew into the area of Russia's Hmeimim Air Base and Tartus Naval Base on the Syrian Mediterranean Sea coast from somewhere in opposition-controlled territory in northwestern Syria. According to multiple reports Russian counter-UCAV systems overpowered and took effective control of six drones while Russian Pantsir-S1 (30mm auto-cannon) close range anti-air defenses shot down the other seven drones. 



Islamic State forces have demonstrated the technological capability for UCAV utilization on Syrian battlefields. In fact the specific type of UCAVs used in these attacks are known by US military intelligence to have been used by Islamic State forces These attacks have occurred in sharp contrast to Russian President Vladimir Putin's declaration of victory over anti-Assad forces at Hmeimim Air Base on 11 December 2017.

Eschatology Today data-mining of information has determined that these UCAVs are commercially available off-the-shelf (COTS). COTS UCAVs have been utilized by all sides in the Syrian-Iraqi conflict. Islamic State, Hezbollah, Ahrar al-Sham and the governments of Iraq, Syria and Iran have all deployed UCAVs. The UCAV bombs seen in the image above do bear a striking resemblance to those used by Islamic State UCAV strikes conducted in March 2017 in Raqqa and Aleppo. 

Never before has Islamic State launched an attack against an airfield or aircraft as has occurred on 31 December 2017 and 6 January 2018. Russian aircraft have no armor and sit out in the open, so this makes them the most high-value targets there are in Syria, aside from a convoy of unarmored Syrian regime or Russian vehicles. Thus far explosive warheads are the weapon of choice, but it may be a matter of time before chemical, biological or radiological warheads make an appearance on the Syrian battlefield.

Damaged Russian Su-24 'Fencer' at Hmeimim Air Base

6 January 2018: There is no question that a mortar attack occurred on 31 December 2017 against the Russian Hmeimim Air Base in Syria. The image above confirms that damage was done to at least one Su-24 (NATO Name 'Fencer'). The image below confirms that the Su-24 with tail number 29 was recently parked, as is the norm, closely together in a neat row of other Fencers along the Hmeimim Air Base tarmac, with the munitions they carry also stored close by. 

Russian Mi-24 'Hind'

Incidentally, a Russian Mi-24 'Hind" flying tank chopper was apparently downed by hostile fire (Russia says no hostile fire was involved) on the same day, just 9 miles, and in the vicinity of Ain Ash Sharqiyeh (a mountainous region) in the direction of Hama from the Hmeimim Air Base. Both Russian aviators were killed. Not many media have noted what a bad day 31 December 2017 was for Russian military aviation in Syria on that day. Odd. Then again, for what its worth, the media are utterly obsessed with anything and everything in the Trumposphere, real or imagined.

Su-24 'Fencer' number 24 parked at Hmeimim Air Base

However, and all of the foregoing aside, what is now being questioned is not how many Russian combat aircraft sustained damage in the attack on Hmeimim, or how many Russian servicemen will killed during the attack (Russia's MoD admits 2 were killed; 8 wounded) but who was responsible for the attack. Normally the 'radical jihadists' claim their victories and achievements in the Syrian war, but not so this time. They've been oddly silent in making any claim, a claim Eschatology Today has patiently waited on over the past week. As of today, no one but those who fired their weapons upon Hmeimim knows for sure.

This attack on Hmeimim Air Base is now being questioned by Russia upon their Syrian hosts. Initially and publicly, Russia blamed the attack on ISIS militants armed and trained by the U.S. This was done without any proof put forward on the size or type of shells which impacted Hmeimim. No photos of ordnance fragments. Nothing. What is known is that the area the Mi-24 overflew is supposed to be 'friendly' territory, controlled by the regime or its Iranian militia allies. 

Now comes leaked word that a 1970s-era Russian (Warsaw Pact) weapon known as the 2B9M Vasilek gun/mortar was the weapon system used in the attack. The Vasilek, (i.e. Cornflower), is a vehicle-towed, automatic burst firing four-round clips, optically-sighted 82mm mortar. 

What this techno jargon means is that Hmeimim was attacked with a line-of-sight heavy weapon system that is in the inventory of Syrian Arab Army as well as having been taken as war booty by the Ansar al-Sham jihadist opposition forces. What this techno jargon also means is that the attacker was - at the very most - just 2.5 miles from Hmeimim Air Base. Ansar al-Sham mobile infantry using this weapon system just 2.5 miles from Russia's air bridge foothold in Syria? No wonder Moscow thinks the Syrian Arab Army was the attacker. It does not seem likely that Ansar al-Sham jihadists are driving around the Alawite stronghold of coastal Syria dressed as Syrian Arab Army soldiers with this weapon in tow. One thing is also for sure, "friendly fire" is never friendly.

What this should mean to Eschatology Today readers is that this lightly-reported attack, and the same day Mi-24 flying tank chopper shoot-down, have both occurred within the past week in the northwestern part of Syria where the literal interpretation of Jeremiah 49:23 has always been highlighted here as the location, the geographic point of origin, of a prophetic event which will turn the ongoing war in Syria upon its inglorious head. Such an event will be the driving impetus for the remainder of Jeremiah 49:24-27 and Isaiah 17 to come to their fulfillment. Always watching for news most folks never see, or would not understand fully if they did.

Syria will be a hotter place in 2018.

Global SITREP B10-17: The Syrian Situation Revisited Part IV



Smoke rises from Al-Quneitra with Mt. Hermon as a backdrop.

UPDATE 28 April 2017: There is enough corroborating foreign media OSINT available to report that an Israeli fire mission also occurred early this week (Monday, 24 April) as another warning to Tehran, Damascus and Moscow. The IDF fired three high-precision ground-to-ground missiles from a position on the Golan destroying a Hezbollah armory within the al-Fawwar camp just outside of Quneitra, Syria.  

The al-Fawwar camp has been manned by Hezbollah-trained, pro-Assad conscripts known as (Syrian) National Defense Forces, or 'the Golan troop.' The three IDF missiles struck the intended target causing multiple high-order secondary explosions which obliterated the Hezbollah armory. It is also important to note that due to Moscow's failure to make any attempt to rein in the IRGC-commanded militias and Hezbollah forces closing in the Golan border the IDF missile strike occurred without Israel using the established hot line to inform Russian military forces in Syria of the fire mission it launched. In other words, IDF ground forces (Northern Command) are not communicating with Russian ground forces in Syria. Such silence equates to overt hostility.

Later in the day yesterday the IDF fired a Patriot air defense missile which intercepted and destroyed a probable Iranian drone that had just penetrated into Israeli airspace from Syria. In addition there a newspaper reports from Beirut, Lebanon stating the Syria has prepared four Scud missiles with half-ton warheads for launching against targets in Israel without warning. The situation on the Northern Front is currently as dangerous and unpredictable than it has been in decades.

27 April 2017: It has now become abundantly clear that the retreat of Syria's best remaining combat aircraft northward to Hmeimim Air Base leaves the whole of southern Syria open to Israel's best fighter aircraft, of which the F-35I 'Adir' is now firmly established at the top of the IAF's power pyramid. 

Early this morning there occurred a series of at least 5 major explosions followed by a huge fireball at the Damascus International Airport. Eschatology Today assesses that the only Israeli aircraft which could have conducted this stealthy strike would be the F-35I. No one saw them arrive, or leave, No Syrian or Russian air defense reaction occurred. 

There is also the near-admission of responsibility for this strike by Israeli Intelligence Minister, Yisrael Katz, who stated during an Israel Army Radio interview today, "We are acting to prevent the transfer of sophisticated weapons from Syria to Hezbollah in Lebanon by Iran." Hezbollah's al-Manar radio agreed with Minister Katz in its own report.

We have known in recent month about Israel keeping close tabs on the Iranian/Hezbollah military advances on the slopes of Mt. Hermon and toward Quneitra on the Golan. This advance is intolerable from the Israeli perspective; Israel will never allow and Iranian Hezbollah to establish permanent bases in southern Syria. The presence of Syria's more elite forces (4th Mechanized Div/42nd Bde) mixed in with the advancing Iranian/Hezbollah columns provide no cover whatsoever. That Israel is striking to the rear of the advance of these forces of late (T4 strike and now Damascus Airport) must be seen as a clear warning by Israel of far, far worse to come should these advances continue.

Here's the current tactical picture and Israel's highly likely response to it. With Russia's tacit approval, the attempt to establish an Iranian/Hezbollah front against Israel from the Mediterranean Sea in southern Lebanon pivoting on Mt. Hermon and then through southern Syria southeastwards to the Golan Heights will leave Israel no other option than to execute its recently developed Gideon Doctrine into practice. Readers may recall we discussed this on Eschatology Today when the Gideon Doctrine was suddenly released in its sanitized public-release form in late 2015.

Eschatology Today believes there is a direct correlation between the warfighting foretold through the prophecies of Isaiah 17, Joshua 13 and Psalm 83 and Israel's "Gideon Doctrine." 

Simply put, the Gideon Doctrine is a warfighting doctrine which is based upon a very few key principles mirroring the national goals of the State of Israel and the current realities of the region.

1) Israel has no officially declared borders; 

2) Preserve Israel's values and character as a Jewish state; 

3) Secure the social and economic strength of the State of Israel; 

4) Secure regional and international status of the State of Israel while seeking peace. 

In order to accomplish these objectives the Gideon Doctrine recognizes that when war becomes an inevitability Israel must use the totality of all its military power in an overwhelming, offensive manner to crush all enemy forces. Therefore, the coming war can be seen as a preemptive no-holds-barred war to achieve the four key principles noted above. And when it happens, it will in all likelihood come without further warning.
  

Russian Air Defense Systems currently deployed to Syria

21 April 2017:  OSINT reports on the transfer of the remaining air worthy fixed wing aircraft  of Bashar al-Assad's remaining air force to Russia's Hmeimim Air Base south of Latakia  is confirmed. This redeployment effectively places the Syrian Arab Air Force under direct Russian air defense protection of the S-300 and S-400 AD systems. This is a prudent move as these antique Syrian aircraft of 1980's vintage have zero chance of surviving air-to-air combat with either the state-of-the-art IAF or US combat aircraft.

Note the new image above. The Russian AD systems did not give pause to Israel's air strike against the T4 air base recently. The IAF strike aircraft were well within the Russian air defense capabilities umbrella. The IAF aircraft must have been invisible to the Russian's state-of-the-art electronic warfare and radar systems at Hmeimim Air Base, or the Russian's simply allowed the devastating IAF strike to occur on their Syrian and Iranian/Hezbollah allies. Which of these possibilities is more plausible to you?

Knowing what's coming according to Bible prophecy makes the daily passage of time seem like watching individual grains of sand fall through the hourglass. However, today's exchange of mortar fire from the Syrian side and IDF artillery returning fire on the Syrian mortar positions serves to remind that there are  any number of fuses that could ignite the northern front.

Yesterday, 24 April 2017, the U.S. Trump Administration took the largely irrelevant step of placing economic sanctions on 271 individuals having direct ties to the Syrian chemical weapons program (CERS). Sanctions have never worked as a political tool, and this instance will be no exception in the history of economic sanctions.

Global SITREP A9-17: The Syrian Situation Revisited

Russian SS-26 "Stone" Ballistic Missile Launchers at Hmeimim Air Base, Syria

16 February 2017: This month one year ago Eschatology Today reported in Global SITREP A8-16 about the Russian deployment of Iskander (NATO Name: SS-26 "Stone") short-range ballistic missile systems into Syria. The deployment of these ballistic missile systems was to Hmeimim Air Base in coastal Latakia province.

What was not reported at that time were three important facts which were unknown at that time. One, the Iskander SS-26 "Stone" is a nuclear-capable ballistic missile. Two, the Russian government made a deal with the Syrian government which allows it to deploy anywhere into the territory of the Syrian Arab Republic any weaponry, ammunition (including nuclear), or materials necessary for the security of its military forces. And Three, the Hmeimim Air Base will be operated by the Russian Air Force under the terms of a 49-year lease, and the Russian naval base at Tartus will be expanded and modernized under another similar lease.

ISI reconnaissance imaging of Hmeimim AB Iskander missile launches DEC16/JAN17

 

What is also clear at this time is that the Iskander ballistic missiles are not in Syria as static displays intended to impress, but have been put to use in a conventional warhead (most likely cluster munitions) configuration against identified targets of the Islamic State (IS) in either Dier Ez-Zor and/or Raqqa. According to Israel Space Imaging (ISI) reconnaissance imagery (click on the image above to zoom in) Iskander missiles were launched against these IS targets in December 2016 and late January 2017. There will likely be additional launches against important IS targets.

What does all this mean in terms of the prophetic content of Isaiah 17 and Jeremiah 49:23-27? 

I believe it means, as discussed previously on this blog, that both of these near-term fulfillment prophecies indicate some as yet unknown catastrophe will have to occur to nullify the current Russian military presence in Syria. The prophecy of Ezekiel 38:15 tells us this about the invaders: "you will come from your place out of the far north." The "far north" strongly indicates the invaders will not be coming from Israel's next door neighbor Syria. A 49-year lease means that the Russian military presence will continue to 2064 at the minimum. Isaiah 17:1-3 foretells of the demise of the city Damascus as well as the ruling kingdom and remnant of Syria ('Aram). These prophecies are true, therefore some great series of events must take place to eradicate the present paradigm in Syria.