Global SITREP C10-17: Back to Syria

IDF Northern Command Exercise "Light of Dagan"

UPDATE 15 September 2017: Some may have taken notice, but some may not, that the warfighting occurring in eastern Syria at this time is defining the border that will exist in the future between Israel and the land Bible prophecy refers to as 'Assyria' ('Ashshuwr). (Isaiah 19:23-25)  That border will be the Euphrates River in Syria. In fact, there is something more that very few Christians in the West are aware of: a great many of the soldiers currently spearheading the CJTF-OIR offensive discussed below in the Khabur River valley and Euphrates River valley are ethnic Assyrians. Ethnic Assyrians are overwhemlingly Christian.

12 September 2017: There are major changes occurring on the Syrian battlefield, from the Golan to the Jordanian border to the Iraq border. Most alarming are reports that Hezbollah forces have taken positions on the Jordanian border along with elements of a Syrian armored division. We do not have to guess that this development, if confirmed, seriously crosses one of Israel's red lines.

Israel has an ongoing all-forces warfighting exercise to simulate a Hezbollah incursion from Lebanon; halting that incursion and then going on offense to eradicate the Iranian proxy once and for all. As for Syria and the threats its Deputy Foreign Minister recently made against Israel, Israel Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman responded with a blunt statement of his own, saying, "I strongly suggest to our neighbors from the north not to try us or send threats, because we take all threats seriously. And I do not suggest that they test us, and I do not advise them to enter into a confrontation with the State of Israel. Because for them it will end badly, very badly."

To the east, there appears to be some cooperation (deconfliction) between US-backed forces (CJTF-OIR allied Syrian Democratic Forces or SDF) moving southwards along the east bank of the Euphrates River and the Khabur River valley towards the Iraqi border, and Syrian/Hezbollah/Iranian proxies moving in the same direction along the west bank of the Euphrates River. Both forces are squeezing what's left of Islamic State forces in eastern Syria. Some reports hold that there's only 10 miles separating these two forces in the vicinity of Deir Ezzor, Syria.

The map above depicts the military situation in Syria on 5 September 2017. To this map, and based upon recent OSINT, I have illustrated with red arrows the CJTF-OIR offensive and objective moving southeasterly along the east bank of the Euphrates River and south through the Khabur River valley from Syrian Kurdistan (yellow area). These forces will push through the rapidly diminishing Islamic State controlled territory (gray area) towards Deir Ezzor and Al-Mayadin, Syria and ultimately to the final objective corridor from Abu Hamam, and Al-Bukamal to Al Qaim on the Syrian-Iraqi border. 

It is critically important to note that the success of this mission will preempt the Iranian objective of establishing a "land bridge" from Iran to the Mediterranean Coast. This is where a direct military clash between the US-led CJTF-OIR forces and Iranian, Syrian and Hezbollah forces is most likely to occur in late September or early October. The final rub will come when CJTF-OIR and SDF forces have defeated Islamic States forces and move to turn over the territory they've cleared to local civilian representative councils (anti-Assad), as has already been done in central Syria. The local populace councils (Sunni Muslim) will then manage security and the governance of the region with CJTF-OIR coalition support.

16 August 2017: Israel has discovered through its EROS-B satellite reconnaissance imagery, operated by the Israeli firm ImageSat, that Iranian construction of a major ballistic missile production and storage facility in a wide valley known as Wadi Jan'em. This massive facility lies five miles west of the coastal town of Baniyas, and is rapidly nearing completion, possibly if not probably before the end of this year. This facility is located well within the Russian air defense umbrella located less than six miles to the northwest at Hmeimim Air Base. PM Netanyahu has stated that Israel will do whatever is necessary in the protection of its national security interest.

The Google Earth image above shows the full scope of the construction area. The major southwest to northeast and northwest to southeast axis of the construction zone measure one mile by two miles, respectively, in length each. They contain at least 20 large buildings along each axis. Some images in the media of this construction only show a small portion of the area in the upper right-hand part of the above image. The above image shows the full scope of the construction zone.

Most western media report this massive facility to be a "Scud" missile factory. However, that identification for this site is quite inaccurate. It would be better to state that this is one very massive and advanced long-range missile production complex that is capable of producing every part of a ballistic missile, from engine and fuel, to the fuselage, to the explosive in the warhead.  As if the Middle East needed yet another potential flash-point for a greater conflict, this one is begging to be struck by Israeli air power sooner rather than later, and not unlike the IAF mission of nearly ten years ago against a nuclear reactor at Al Kibar, and which we remember in vivid detail as 'Operation Orchard' (September 2007). 

Global SITREP A9-17: The Syrian Situation Revisited

Russian SS-26 "Stone" Ballistic Missile Launchers at Hmeimim Air Base, Syria

16 February 2017: This month one year ago Eschatology Today reported in Global SITREP A8-16 about the Russian deployment of Iskander (NATO Name: SS-26 "Stone") short-range ballistic missile systems into Syria. The deployment of these ballistic missile systems was to Hmeimim Air Base in coastal Latakia province.

What was not reported at that time were three important facts which were unknown at that time. One, the Iskander SS-26 "Stone" is a nuclear-capable ballistic missile. Two, the Russian government made a deal with the Syrian government which allows it to deploy anywhere into the territory of the Syrian Arab Republic any weaponry, ammunition (including nuclear), or materials necessary for the security of its military forces. And Three, the Hmeimim Air Base will be operated by the Russian Air Force under the terms of a 49-year lease, and the Russian naval base at Tartus will be expanded and modernized under another similar lease.

ISI reconnaissance imaging of Hmeimim AB Iskander missile launches DEC16/JAN17

 

What is also clear at this time is that the Iskander ballistic missiles are not in Syria as static displays intended to impress, but have been put to use in a conventional warhead (most likely cluster munitions) configuration against identified targets of the Islamic State (IS) in either Dier Ez-Zor and/or Raqqa. According to Israel Space Imaging (ISI) reconnaissance imagery (click on the image above to zoom in) Iskander missiles were launched against these IS targets in December 2016 and late January 2017. There will likely be additional launches against important IS targets.

What does all this mean in terms of the prophetic content of Isaiah 17 and Jeremiah 49:23-27? 

I believe it means, as discussed previously on this blog, that both of these near-term fulfillment prophecies indicate some as yet unknown catastrophe will have to occur to nullify the current Russian military presence in Syria. The prophecy of Ezekiel 38:15 tells us this about the invaders: "you will come from your place out of the far north." The "far north" strongly indicates the invaders will not be coming from Israel's next door neighbor Syria. A 49-year lease means that the Russian military presence will continue to 2064 at the minimum. Isaiah 17:1-3 foretells of the demise of the city Damascus as well as the ruling kingdom and remnant of Syria ('Aram). These prophecies are true, therefore some great series of events must take place to eradicate the present paradigm in Syria.

Global SITREP D6-15 Part II: Russian Military Engaged in Syrian Combat Operations.

UPDATE 02 October 2015: In a very recent interview with PBS in New York City, Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi of Iraq offered an invitation to the Russian Federation to send its troops and aircraft to his country if it would be willing to join the anti-Islamic State coalition (led by the United States). 

In this interview conducted on Wednesday, 30 September, PM al-Abadi also revealed that intelligence sharing between Iraq, Iran and Russia regarding air and ground combat operations against the Islamic State  has been ongoing for at least the past 3 months. This means the Baghdad coordination center manned by a Russian three-star general, and Iranian general and an Iraqi general has been receiving intelligence information provided by the United States far longer than the coordination center has been known to exist. Is this how Russia knew precisely where to hit the US-backed rebels in Syria over the past two days in preparation for the expected land offensive by Iranian, Syrian and Russian marines? Are American combat forces in Iraq now at greater risk due to loose Iraqi lips? Stand-by.

30 September 2015: As expected and in the immediate aftermath of the Putin-Obama mini-summit at the UN headquarters in New York City, Vladimir Putin and his rubber-stamp Federation Council (upper legislative house of the Federal Assembly) have made President of the United States of America Barack Hussein Obama and his entire corps of mainstream media lap dogs look like rank amateurs.  Within hours after Putin declared that Russia had no plans to deploy large numbers of combat troops into Syria, the exact opposite is now the fact as approved by the Federation Council.

Students of Bible prophecy should know that on the prophetic timeline following Isaiah 17 and Jeremiah 49:23-27 there is no further mention of what we know as Syria in the prophetic texts, neither in the Psalm 83-related texts or Ezekiel 38/39. I believe we are now about to witness in real-time the reason for this omission. Unrestrained warfare will soon commence to consume and obliterate this land. Refugee problem? Humanitarian crisis? We have not seen anything yet.

In Russian strikes conducted today by Su-25 (NATO: Frogfoot) aircraft, who hit targets near Homs, Hama and Latakia governorates. While Russia claims they struck Islamic State targets, it is well known by Western observers that there are no Islamic State forces anywhere within a radius of 40 miles from these locations. Therefore, what the Russians aircraft struck were anti-Assad rebel forces other than Islamic State, possibly Jabhat al-Nusra and Ahrar al-Sham, or possibly other rebels supported by the US-led coalition. Map below.

In another bit of news, it is also being reported by Western military observers that there is severe disagreement, if not outright resentment, between loyal al-Assad officers of the Syrian Army and the Iranian officers of the IRGC who are in positions of command. Several Syrian officers have been put before firing squads for objecting too strenuously against the Iranians.  A house divided cannot stand.

29 September 2015: Despite the recent Netanyahu-Putin mini-summit in Moscow, yesterday in New York the Russian Federation president made public his "worry" concerning Israel's retaliatory strikes against enemy fighting positions and command posts on the Syrian side of the Golan. This "worry" may belie a secret mutual defense agreement among the Syrian, Iranian/Hezbollah and Russian forces. At some point Russian forces may find themselves obligated or otherwise ordered to militarily respond to an Israeli preemptive or retaliatory strike against one or more of Putin's allies, such as Sunday's attack on the Syrian 90th Brigade command post which fired upon Israel under Iranian orders. The clear and present danger noted below just became a little more clear and dangerous.

21 September 2015: PM Netanyahu and a dozen of his IDF staff officers were in Moscow this morning to meet with Russian Federation president Vladimir Putin in order to negate the possibility of a military engagement between Israeli and Russian combat forces in or over Syrian territory. 

Putin made it very clear that the objective of Russian forces deployed into Syria is the defense of the Bashar al-Assad regime against all of its enemies. This is a clear and present danger for Israel. I will state here what virtually all mainstream media are reluctant to put into print. 

Syria's list of enemies includes the State of Israel. Since 1973 the two nations have remained in a state of war against each other, which amounts to a total of 67 years and counting to be precise. 

It is also being reported that Vladimir Putin told Bibi Netanyahu that Russian military forces deployed in Syria will act in a responsible manner. This is no where near reassuring as it was without question Russian military forces taking part in the invasion of sovereign Ukrainian territory which shot down the civilian Malaysian Airlines Flight MH-17 fourteen months ago during its flight from Amsterdam, Holland to Kuala Lumpur Malaysia.

Russia and its Iranian ally both have considerable military forces in Syria; they are of one accord in the utilization of those forces. This presents a clear and present danger to the State of Israel, and Bibi Netanyahu can be under to illusion of reassurance coming from the leader of the Russian Federation.

17 September 2015: Looks like the folks at DEBKAfile have begun to read this blog. They've also included some commentary indicating they now fully understand  the tactical urgent reason for the Russian military intervention as reported here in SITREP D6-15 on 14 September. This is a good thing. What remains to be seen is if Israel's political leadership will call out Russia's political leadership for the egregious lies given to them regarding ongoing Russian combat operations.  

The ingredients for a military miscalculation in the virtual free-for-all warfare going on in Syria increases with each new day. As Russia's military operations expand outwards into central Syria they will eventually make hot contact with Kurdish YPG rebels fighting against al-Assad's army who have US Special Forces embedded with them as "non-combatant advisors." The entire mess in Syria could turn wicked ugly very quickly.
 
UPDATED 16 SEPTEMBER 2015: The image above was taken by a Syrian photo journalist near Latakia, Syria is proof positive that the Russian Federation intends to engage in full-scale combat operations against any and all jihadist armies fighting to overthrow the Ba'athist government of Bashar al-Assad. In this image is seen one of the Russian army's jam-resistant R-166-0.5 command and control HF/VHF/UHF communication vehicles.  Thus far the reported eight of these vehicles in Syria constitute a battalion-level signals unit to provide continuous voice and data command and control signals to an entire brigade combat team from line-of-sight to distances of well over a thousand miles. This means well over a thousand Russian combat troops will likely be deployed into northwestern coastal Syria in the coming days, with larger numbers to follow by both air and sea.

And here below is a recent satellite image (click on the image for full details) of the Russian forward operating base (FOB) being stood up at the former Bassel al-Assad International Airport adjacent to the coastal town of Jableh, just south of the port at Latakia. This well-annotated image makes it absolutely clear that Russian military forces intend to remain in Syria for a very long time indeed.

Russian fighter aircraft and attack helicopters will be stationed here, and twice daily flights of war materiel direct from Russia on An-124 Condor strategic lift aircraft have occurred continuously over the past few weeks. The improvements being made to this as yet unnamed FOB appear to have commenced not-so-coincidentally around the time of the signing of the JCPOA agreement with Iran. This newly acquired Russian base in Syria is proof positive that the Obama Administration has been played the willing fool once again by Russia and Iran; that its foreign policy with respect to Russia, Iran and Syria has attained an unbelievably higher level of incompetence than its unilateral withdrawal from Operation Iraqi Freedom and Operation Enduring Freedom had previously evidenced. 

These are the type of things that make what was all but inconceivable a couple of weeks ago a virtual reality now and into the near-term future. However, that said and with an eye to the literal prophetic word of the Lord, Ezekiel tells us that Gog of Magog "will come out of his land in the utmost north (tsaphown yĕrekah)" which is much farther distant than northern Syria. In fact, within the Ezekiel 38/39 prophecy there is no mention of Syria whatsoever, nor is any other country currently located on Israel's present borders or future border. This is rather anomalous considering the many nations of this confederation that constitute a rather detailed or itemized list. This leads me to conclude in analysis of current events that this Russian military presence in Syria is not long-term and limited in scope for one or more unforeseen reasons, but which may well be directly related to the events foretold in Jeremiah 49:23-27, and which constitute a prophetic direct link to Isaiah 17.