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| IDF Northern Command Exercise "Light of Dagan" |
UPDATE 15 September 2017: Some may have taken notice, but some may not, that the warfighting occurring in eastern Syria at this time is defining the border that will exist in the future between Israel and the land Bible prophecy refers to as 'Assyria' ('Ashshuwr). (Isaiah 19:23-25) That border will be the Euphrates River in Syria. In fact, there is something more that very few Christians in the West are aware of: a great many of the soldiers currently spearheading the CJTF-OIR offensive discussed below in the Khabur River valley and Euphrates River valley are ethnic Assyrians. Ethnic Assyrians are overwhemlingly Christian.
12 September 2017: There are major changes occurring on the Syrian battlefield, from the Golan to the Jordanian border to the Iraq border. Most alarming are reports that Hezbollah forces have taken positions on the Jordanian border along with elements of a Syrian armored division. We do not have to guess that this development, if confirmed, seriously crosses one of Israel's red lines.
Israel has an ongoing all-forces warfighting exercise to simulate a Hezbollah incursion from Lebanon; halting that incursion and then going on offense to eradicate the Iranian proxy once and for all. As for Syria and the threats its Deputy Foreign Minister recently made against Israel, Israel Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman responded with a blunt statement of his own, saying, "I strongly suggest to our neighbors from the north not to try us or send threats, because we take all threats seriously. And I do not suggest that they test us, and I do not advise them to enter into a confrontation with the State of Israel. Because for them it will end badly, very badly."
To the east, there appears to be some cooperation (deconfliction) between US-backed forces (CJTF-OIR allied Syrian Democratic Forces or SDF) moving southwards along the east bank of the Euphrates River and the Khabur River valley towards the Iraqi border, and Syrian/Hezbollah/Iranian proxies moving in the same direction along the west bank of the Euphrates River. Both forces are squeezing what's left of Islamic State forces in eastern Syria. Some reports hold that there's only 10 miles separating these two forces in the vicinity of Deir Ezzor, Syria.
The map above depicts the military situation in Syria on 5 September 2017. To this map, and based upon recent OSINT, I have illustrated with red arrows the CJTF-OIR offensive and objective moving southeasterly along the east bank of the Euphrates River and south through the Khabur River valley from Syrian Kurdistan (yellow area). These forces will push through the rapidly diminishing Islamic State controlled territory (gray area) towards Deir Ezzor and Al-Mayadin, Syria and ultimately to the final objective corridor from Abu Hamam, and Al-Bukamal to Al Qaim on the Syrian-Iraqi border.
It is critically important to note that the success of this mission will preempt the Iranian objective of establishing a "land bridge" from Iran to the Mediterranean Coast. This is where a direct military clash between the US-led CJTF-OIR forces and Iranian, Syrian and Hezbollah forces is most likely to occur in late September or early October. The final rub will come when CJTF-OIR and SDF forces have defeated Islamic States forces and move to turn over the territory they've cleared to local civilian representative councils (anti-Assad), as has already been done in central Syria. The local populace councils (Sunni Muslim) will then manage security and the governance of the region with CJTF-OIR coalition support.
16 August 2017: Israel has discovered through its EROS-B satellite reconnaissance imagery, operated by the Israeli firm ImageSat, that Iranian construction of a major ballistic missile production and storage facility in a wide valley known as Wadi Jan'em. This massive facility lies five miles west of the coastal town of Baniyas, and is rapidly nearing completion, possibly if not probably before the end of this year. This facility is located well within the Russian air defense umbrella located less than six miles to the northwest at Hmeimim Air Base. PM Netanyahu has stated that Israel will do whatever is necessary in the protection of its national security interest.
12 September 2017: There are major changes occurring on the Syrian battlefield, from the Golan to the Jordanian border to the Iraq border. Most alarming are reports that Hezbollah forces have taken positions on the Jordanian border along with elements of a Syrian armored division. We do not have to guess that this development, if confirmed, seriously crosses one of Israel's red lines.
Israel has an ongoing all-forces warfighting exercise to simulate a Hezbollah incursion from Lebanon; halting that incursion and then going on offense to eradicate the Iranian proxy once and for all. As for Syria and the threats its Deputy Foreign Minister recently made against Israel, Israel Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman responded with a blunt statement of his own, saying, "I strongly suggest to our neighbors from the north not to try us or send threats, because we take all threats seriously. And I do not suggest that they test us, and I do not advise them to enter into a confrontation with the State of Israel. Because for them it will end badly, very badly."
To the east, there appears to be some cooperation (deconfliction) between US-backed forces (CJTF-OIR allied Syrian Democratic Forces or SDF) moving southwards along the east bank of the Euphrates River and the Khabur River valley towards the Iraqi border, and Syrian/Hezbollah/Iranian proxies moving in the same direction along the west bank of the Euphrates River. Both forces are squeezing what's left of Islamic State forces in eastern Syria. Some reports hold that there's only 10 miles separating these two forces in the vicinity of Deir Ezzor, Syria.
The map above depicts the military situation in Syria on 5 September 2017. To this map, and based upon recent OSINT, I have illustrated with red arrows the CJTF-OIR offensive and objective moving southeasterly along the east bank of the Euphrates River and south through the Khabur River valley from Syrian Kurdistan (yellow area). These forces will push through the rapidly diminishing Islamic State controlled territory (gray area) towards Deir Ezzor and Al-Mayadin, Syria and ultimately to the final objective corridor from Abu Hamam, and Al-Bukamal to Al Qaim on the Syrian-Iraqi border.
It is critically important to note that the success of this mission will preempt the Iranian objective of establishing a "land bridge" from Iran to the Mediterranean Coast. This is where a direct military clash between the US-led CJTF-OIR forces and Iranian, Syrian and Hezbollah forces is most likely to occur in late September or early October. The final rub will come when CJTF-OIR and SDF forces have defeated Islamic States forces and move to turn over the territory they've cleared to local civilian representative councils (anti-Assad), as has already been done in central Syria. The local populace councils (Sunni Muslim) will then manage security and the governance of the region with CJTF-OIR coalition support.
16 August 2017: Israel has discovered through its EROS-B satellite reconnaissance imagery, operated by the Israeli firm ImageSat, that Iranian construction of a major ballistic missile production and storage facility in a wide valley known as Wadi Jan'em. This massive facility lies five miles west of the coastal town of Baniyas, and is rapidly nearing completion, possibly if not probably before the end of this year. This facility is located well within the Russian air defense umbrella located less than six miles to the northwest at Hmeimim Air Base. PM Netanyahu has stated that Israel will do whatever is necessary in the protection of its national security interest.
The Google Earth image above shows the full scope of the construction area. The major southwest to northeast and northwest to southeast axis of the construction zone measure one mile by two miles, respectively, in length each. They contain at least 20 large buildings along each axis. Some images in the media of this construction only show a small portion of the area in the upper right-hand part of the above image. The above image shows the full scope of the construction zone.
Most western media report this massive facility to be a "Scud" missile factory. However, that identification for this site is quite inaccurate. It would be better to state that this is one very massive and advanced long-range missile production complex that is capable of producing every part of a ballistic missile, from engine and fuel, to the fuselage, to the explosive in the warhead. As if the Middle East needed yet another potential flash-point for a greater conflict, this one is begging to be struck by Israeli air power sooner rather than later, and not unlike the IAF mission of nearly ten years ago against a nuclear reactor at Al Kibar, and which we remember in vivid detail as 'Operation Orchard' (September 2007).
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