Global SITREP C10-17: Back to Syria

IDF Northern Command Exercise "Light of Dagan"

UPDATE 15 September 2017: Some may have taken notice, but some may not, that the warfighting occurring in eastern Syria at this time is defining the border that will exist in the future between Israel and the land Bible prophecy refers to as 'Assyria' ('Ashshuwr). (Isaiah 19:23-25)  That border will be the Euphrates River in Syria. In fact, there is something more that very few Christians in the West are aware of: a great many of the soldiers currently spearheading the CJTF-OIR offensive discussed below in the Khabur River valley and Euphrates River valley are ethnic Assyrians. Ethnic Assyrians are overwhemlingly Christian.

12 September 2017: There are major changes occurring on the Syrian battlefield, from the Golan to the Jordanian border to the Iraq border. Most alarming are reports that Hezbollah forces have taken positions on the Jordanian border along with elements of a Syrian armored division. We do not have to guess that this development, if confirmed, seriously crosses one of Israel's red lines.

Israel has an ongoing all-forces warfighting exercise to simulate a Hezbollah incursion from Lebanon; halting that incursion and then going on offense to eradicate the Iranian proxy once and for all. As for Syria and the threats its Deputy Foreign Minister recently made against Israel, Israel Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman responded with a blunt statement of his own, saying, "I strongly suggest to our neighbors from the north not to try us or send threats, because we take all threats seriously. And I do not suggest that they test us, and I do not advise them to enter into a confrontation with the State of Israel. Because for them it will end badly, very badly."

To the east, there appears to be some cooperation (deconfliction) between US-backed forces (CJTF-OIR allied Syrian Democratic Forces or SDF) moving southwards along the east bank of the Euphrates River and the Khabur River valley towards the Iraqi border, and Syrian/Hezbollah/Iranian proxies moving in the same direction along the west bank of the Euphrates River. Both forces are squeezing what's left of Islamic State forces in eastern Syria. Some reports hold that there's only 10 miles separating these two forces in the vicinity of Deir Ezzor, Syria.

The map above depicts the military situation in Syria on 5 September 2017. To this map, and based upon recent OSINT, I have illustrated with red arrows the CJTF-OIR offensive and objective moving southeasterly along the east bank of the Euphrates River and south through the Khabur River valley from Syrian Kurdistan (yellow area). These forces will push through the rapidly diminishing Islamic State controlled territory (gray area) towards Deir Ezzor and Al-Mayadin, Syria and ultimately to the final objective corridor from Abu Hamam, and Al-Bukamal to Al Qaim on the Syrian-Iraqi border. 

It is critically important to note that the success of this mission will preempt the Iranian objective of establishing a "land bridge" from Iran to the Mediterranean Coast. This is where a direct military clash between the US-led CJTF-OIR forces and Iranian, Syrian and Hezbollah forces is most likely to occur in late September or early October. The final rub will come when CJTF-OIR and SDF forces have defeated Islamic States forces and move to turn over the territory they've cleared to local civilian representative councils (anti-Assad), as has already been done in central Syria. The local populace councils (Sunni Muslim) will then manage security and the governance of the region with CJTF-OIR coalition support.

16 August 2017: Israel has discovered through its EROS-B satellite reconnaissance imagery, operated by the Israeli firm ImageSat, that Iranian construction of a major ballistic missile production and storage facility in a wide valley known as Wadi Jan'em. This massive facility lies five miles west of the coastal town of Baniyas, and is rapidly nearing completion, possibly if not probably before the end of this year. This facility is located well within the Russian air defense umbrella located less than six miles to the northwest at Hmeimim Air Base. PM Netanyahu has stated that Israel will do whatever is necessary in the protection of its national security interest.

The Google Earth image above shows the full scope of the construction area. The major southwest to northeast and northwest to southeast axis of the construction zone measure one mile by two miles, respectively, in length each. They contain at least 20 large buildings along each axis. Some images in the media of this construction only show a small portion of the area in the upper right-hand part of the above image. The above image shows the full scope of the construction zone.

Most western media report this massive facility to be a "Scud" missile factory. However, that identification for this site is quite inaccurate. It would be better to state that this is one very massive and advanced long-range missile production complex that is capable of producing every part of a ballistic missile, from engine and fuel, to the fuselage, to the explosive in the warhead.  As if the Middle East needed yet another potential flash-point for a greater conflict, this one is begging to be struck by Israeli air power sooner rather than later, and not unlike the IAF mission of nearly ten years ago against a nuclear reactor at Al Kibar, and which we remember in vivid detail as 'Operation Orchard' (September 2007). 

Global SITREP C5-17: The Syrian Situation Revisited Part VII

Marjan Oil Field rig 

30 June 2017: Last entry for Part VII. Warfare for control of Quneitra resulted again in the Syrian Army deliberately sending mortar rounds into Israel. No one can be that far off in getting their mortar fire on-target. The IAF response was to immediately obliterate the Syrian mortar position.

Also, within the past 24-hours Russian propaganda media has reported that rebel forces in Daraa plan to use chemical weapons in a manner so as to blame it on the Al-Assad regime and in so doing cause retaliatory US/French air strikes on the regime. This report is an I&W that the Al-Assad regime, backed by Russia and Iran, is likely behind any such event should it actually occur in the stalemated Daraa warzone.

28 June 2017: It turns out that we caught the Syrians red-handed making Sarin at one of the Al -Sha'irat Air Base shelters not destroyed in the Tomahawk attack of two months ago. It looks as if the mixed of precursor chemicals has stopped and Syria has, for the moment at least, backed down. 

Last night, 27 June, the White House issued a warning to Bashar al-Assad's Syrian regime which is identical to the expectation published here (highlighted below) one week ago. The Associated Press published and then updated the White House warning early this morning. 

The warning is based on received, actionable and highly critical intelligence that al-Assad's military was detected preparing precursor chemicals "for a possible sarin gas attack in either the east (or) south of the country." So highly critical, urgent and actionable was the received intelligence that the normal American inter-governmental channels for issuing a direct warning to the Syrian government were bypassed. The warning was direct in stating that both Bashar al-Assad and his military forces would pay a "heavy price" if the chemical attack were to occur.

There is nowhere more south in Syria than the under siege city of Dara'a, and the east of the country is hotly contested by the U.S.-led CJTF-OIR forces against approaching Iranian/Hezbollah and Syrian columns as reported here in the previous parts of this SITREP.


26 June 2017: All eyes on the Golan Heights. A major flare-up could occur here at any moment's notice. Since Saturday the IAF has destroyed a Syrian heavy machine gun bunker and two Syrian Main Battle Tanks, both costing Syrian soldiers their lives.  

20 June 2017: Two noteworthy items. First, Saudi coastal security forces caught a team of IRGC-QF terrorists red-handed in the midst of an operation to blow up several Marjan Oil Field rigs. The Saudi's apprehended one IRGC terrorist team in their explosives-laden watercraft while two other teams managed to escape back into Iranian waters. Such an attack, even though it was thwarted, is an act of war, and serves to illustrate the nearness of Jeremiah 49:34-39 to its literal fulfillment.

Second, as noted earlier in comments, Russia is seriously outgunned by the US in the ongoing showdown in Syria. Also noted in the previous SITREP was the recent forward deployment into Syria of just two U.S. HIMARS rocket artillery system vehicles. Russian squawking about this deployment of two HIMARS 6x6 vehicles illustrates how sensitive they are to their mere presence.

However, two HIMARS vehicles do not constitute an overwhelming offensive juggernaut. So why the Russian angst? Note Russia's recent ultimatum to strike U.S. air or ground assets which located west of the Euphrates River. This is precisely where the HIMARS have been deployed. So, would Russia actually launch strikes against the HIMARS to show their resolve to counter the U.S. build up and make good on their threat? If this is Putin and his generals plan they had better reconsider and recalculate their risk assessment.

For the sake of argument, let's say Russia takes them out. In the U.S. counter-strike we would in a matter of minutes, certainly within an hour's time, take out all of their expensive big boy toys toys at Hmeimim Air Base. The embarked airwing of the USS G.H.W. Bush is a mere 5 minutes away from reaching out and touching those Russian toys, even while in port Haifa, and in a manner that would leave none of them operational. Without their vaunted S300 and S400 air defense systems and an operable runway at Hmeimim Air Base the Russian mission in Syria would effectively be eliminated. Mission incomplete, mission fail. The point is that Russia is severely outgunned in Syria.

Putin feeling froggy? Think he might jump? Not if he's as smart as he thinks he is. President Trump and his senior Pentagon military planners are calling Putin's bluff. Nevertheless, miscalculations do happen and Bible prophecy indicates there may well be a near-term miscalculation in Syria.

F/A-18 Super Hornets

The Eschatology Today predicted event written about in Part V of this series has now occurred and the also predicted new phase of the war in Syria is now a fact. It took almost exactly 30 days for the prediction within the 15 May update of that SITREP to occur in the real-world:

15 May 2017: The two nuclear-armed (US and Russia) opposing armed force coalitions in Syria now appear to be engaged in operations designed to seize and hold territory. This is conventional warfare as we have known it for millennia. The real danger here is the allies with each coalition could engage each other in combat, either deliberately or by accident and particularly in southern and western Syria. In the skies overhead a free-for-all dogfight could also occur between the two sides combat aircraft. And then there's the continuing Iranian-Hezbollah drive to seize the Syrian side of the Golan. This is all stage-setting for the major conflagration this series on the Syrian Situation has been highlighting according to Bible prophecy (Isaiah 17; Jeremiah 49:23-27)

If one were to continue to read the paragraph following the above from that same update and then look at the situation that is now developing just to the north of the "cities of Aroer" of northwestern Jordan, that is, around Dara'a, Syria, and as reinforced in the recent 18 June update in Part VI of this series, one might be able to see how these events are eminently predictable through the literal interpretation of the plain text wording of Isaiah's and Jeremiah's prophetic texts:

I would speculate (actually, I expect) that the Dara'a campaign appears to be falling into an Aleppo-like grind where the Syrian regime's offensive makes no headway resulting in the use of chemical weapons by the al-Assad regime in an attempt to break the stalemate. We all should understand what will result if this does occur as Dara'a lies just 9 miles from the Jordanian border.

So, with this as the lead-in to Part VII of this series, we can hopefully have a better understanding of how these prophecies will come to their literal fulfillment. What is Bible prophecy if not God telling us well in advance what will happen in the future due to the decisions made by the opposing sides in these last days "wars and rumors of wars." 

The critical thing is, these are no longer a hazy or distant future fulfillment of prophetic texts, but fulfillment that we can see occurring now, coming with as little advance notice as a Biblical month of 30 days. We're talking in this series on Syria about literal prophetic fulfillment before it happens, not as occurs from far too many preachers pulpits where the discussion is after the fact. This is utilizing the fulfillment of Bible prophecy as testimony to the inerrant nature of the LORD God's prophetic word. If this is not a here and now witnessing tool, then none exist. 

Global SITREP E12-14: 2015 War on the Islamic State

Generic image of an American airborne assault in the Middle East

26 December 2014: Things have progressed to the point where one final SITREP is indeed required to close out the current year.  I believe there is now no doubt that despite all claims to the contrary by the Obama Administration, large numbers of elite American combat troops are returning to staging areas in Kuwait and Iraq, and possibly even the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, in order to close with, engage in ground combat and utterly destroy the forces of the newly declared Caliphate, the Islamic State.  I believe this to be the case because otherwise there would be no reason for the U.S. State Department to have published a little more than two weeks ago its case for an "Authorization for use of Military Force against ISIL (Islamic State). In modern parlance, that amounts to a de facto U.S. declaration of war against the Islamic State.

The initial element of the American "boots on the ground" contribution to the component land forces of the Combined Joint Task Force - Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTF-OIR) engaged and decimated a sizable Islamic State force that was attempting to overrun the Ein al-Asad Air Base in Iraq's Anbar Province. The two-hour battle occurred on Sunday morning, 14 December between 0100 and 0300 hours in the al-Dolab region, approximately 6 miles from the perimeter of the air base. Within the next month an additional 1,300 elite US airborne troops will deploy. This deployment will include an entire Brigade Combat Team of the 82nd Airborne Division, Ft. Bragg, NC (hence the image above).

Another Western power contributing combat troops to CJTF-OIR on the same January 2015 deployment schedule are "hundreds" of the United Kingdom's best troops according to the BBC and other UK news sources.  These two January 2015 deployments, I believe, will constitute the vanguard of other NATO ground forces being requested to deploy into Iraq. Germany may have to change its constitution in order for Chancellor Angela Merkel to make good on her pledge to send even more German combat troops to Iraq in support of CJTF-OIR objectives - unless NATO as a whole authorizes deployments as it did for combat operations in Afghanistan. 

With only five days to go before 2015 can officially be rung in as the New Year, we can already see that the deployment of American, British, German and likely other NATO combat forces into Mesopotamia will make for early headlines. Getting these forces into Syria might not be too far behind as 2015 progresses. The Syrian border cannot be permitted to provide sanctuary to the enemy's forces as had occurred all along the Afghan-Pakistan frontier.