Global SITREP A3-19: Israel's Northern Front Offensive

F-16I Sufa

UPDATED 21/22 January 2019: The IDF pummeled IRGC-QF forces across Syria beginning just before midnight Israel Standard Time with one of the heaviest rocket and missile barrages ever. Iran's allies in Syria were also warned to stand down unless they desired to recieve the same. Ammo dumps, command and control (C2) sites, training camps, Iranian structures at Damascus International Airport, and dozens of mobile Syrian air defenses, like the Russian-made Pantsyr and Buk, have been all but obliterated during these strikes. The Iranian targets struck were on every side of Damascus, completely encircling the city.

The Iranian buildings at Damascus International Airport destroyed tonight.
Click on this image for a much more detailed view.

One of the reasons for this action was that Israel determined it was IRGC-QF forces which fired an Iranian Ra'ad-1 surface-to-surface rocket (good read at link) at northern Israel yesterday morning. It could not go unanswered; an overwhelming response was needed to teach the Iranians a lesson. Thus, as intimated yesterday, the war against Iran in Syria has suddenly eschalated to a new and much higher level. The fulfillment of Isaiah 17 may just be in the offing as the end result of the war against Iran in Syria. One of several prophetic dominos set to topple in rapid sequence.

20 January 2019: It took all of just four days for the new IDF CoS Lt. Gen. Aviv Kochavi to continue the war against Iranian military entrenchment and arming of Hezbollah in Syria. Moreover, he threw a Russian ultimatum and threats concerning no more IAF attacks in Syria right back into Moscow's face. This morning, in broad daylight, at least four IAF strike aircraft attacked one or more targets in Syria. 

Apparent disinformation coming from Russian and Syrian sources claims the attack was on Damascus International Airport and it failed completely with all Israeli missiles destroyed by Pantsyr and Buk air defense systems. However, there is considerable OSINT reporting that the strike actually targeted the Iranian Hezbollah underground weapons bunkers located at al-Kiswah. Damascus Int'l and the al-Kiswah bunkers are about equidistant from central Damascus.

An hour after the airstrike Syria launched one or more rockets towards northern Israel which were promptly shot out of the sky by Israel's Iron Dome ADS. Bottom line: Lt. Gen. Kochavi has called the Russians bluff in the most forceful , broad daylight manner. In this gambit Russia wisely stood down and did not fire at the IAF strike aircraft. Israel's deterrent power is as it has always been. There was never any doubt that Israel would stand down in the face of empty Russian threats. On this blog those kinds of doubts never existed.

12 January 2019: At about 11 PM last night in southern Syria that latest strike in the war Israel has been waging against Iranian entrenchment in Syria and the arming of Hezbollah began. As before the IAFs targets were Iranian weapons storage facilities at Damascus International Airport and a Hezbollah weapons depot a few miles to the southwest at Al-Kiswah. Media disinformation that last night's strikes were unsuccessful should be ignored. They were quite successful. Also, this particular strike was assessed to be imminent 11 days ago in the 30 December update to SITREP E4-18. It is the most recent strike since the strike on the night of 25 December 2018.

Satellite Photo Reconnaissance of Damascus Int'l Strike

It is interesting to note that this strike occurred on the very same day as reports of non-essential U.S. military equipment were seen to be withdrawing from northern Syria. In this light, last nights IAF strikes could be seen as a message to Tehran, Damascus and Moscow: nothing has changed. The strike would also mesh neatly with IDF CoS Lieutenant General Gadi Eisenkot's pre-retirement interview of yesterday with the New York Times.

Key points in the information coming from LTG Gadi Eisenkot are that a January 2017 decision of the cabinet authorized him to commence a sustained series of military actions against Iran in Syria. This authorization followed Israel's intelligence assessment that IRGC-Qods Force chief Qassem Soleimani had amassed 22,000 men of an eventual 100,000-strong force in Syria. According to LTG Eisenkot this was Soleimani's greatest strategic error - he picked a fight where he did not have the forces to sustain it much less win it.

LTG Eisenkot made clear that between 2011 and 2016 "thousands" of strikes occurred and they were conducted within specific parameters, such as the targeting of Iranian arms shipments moving overland via Syria to Hezbollah in Lebanon. However, from his January 2017 authorization the strikes against Iranian assests in Syria have been an almost daily occurrence; the inference here is that many were not reported or attributed to actions of the waring sides in the Syrian civil war. Most recently, the general stated that in 2018 alone there were more than 2,000 ordnance strikes on Iranian targets in Syria.

LTG Eisenkot officially retires next week, but he leaves behind complete Israeli superiority in intelligence collection, combat air superiority, strong deterence and justified freedom of action, not to mention the continued full-support of the United States. This reality has forced Soleimani to transfer his troops to eastern Syria and Iraq. U.S. forces may yet directly engage Iranian forces in Iraq.

So, we still watch the ongoing real-world process for the filfillment of Isaiah 17 and Jeremiah 49:23-27 continue. These night-time events in Syria that we wake up to here in the U.S. will continue, and more than likely increase in severity. The incoming IDF CoS Major-General Aviv Kochavi, who will certainly will be promoted to Lieutenant General, will have the same authorization as his predecessor and will likely be able to expand the operations he leads against Iran in Syria.