Wednesday, August 22, 2012

Timing of Iran Strike

22 August 2012:  I would assess that a decision by Israeli PM Netanyahu to launch a preemptive strike against the Iranian nuclear weapons program before the US election on November 6, 2012 will boil down to the final two 7-day optimum windows of low observability: 13-19 September and 11-18 October 2012.

20 comments:

Rapture Forums said...

Very interesting observations Sean. Thanks for highlighting those "window of opportunities" that most of us don't know about. It will be very interesting to see what happens.

God bless.

Chris

SeanOsborne said...

Those moonless nights make the most sense.

I envision this strike will be along the lines of the hypothetical "Operation Gibor" ("Operation Strong One") with significant elements of the real-world strike we know as "Operation Orchard" in Syria during September of 2007.

If you recall that Special Operation included F-15I, F16I, ELINT/EW aircraft and a number of Shaldag special forces commando with their boots on Syrian terra firma.

'Nuff said...

hartdawg said...

I keep hearing rumours of war and such, have been since late 2008. Your assessment makes sense if Israel is going to attack, but from your understanding, are you pretty certain Israel will attack before the elections? id like a military experts insight.

SeanOsborne said...

Israel's military commanders are on record that Israel is prepared for any contingency. Any contingency.

Israel has launched long-distance preemptive strikes previously and its leaders are aware that most of the world appreciated what they did in Iraq and Syria to halt those nuclear programs.

We don't know for sure what Romney said in private conversation to Netanyahu, but I'd hazard a guess that it was something like "you do what is right for Israel's security. Under my presidency America will have your back."

Israel knows better than anyone that doing the right thing and risking the consequences is the right thing for millions of human beings.

ObaMao is all but a lame duck who is very likely on his inglorious way out.

War is coming irregardless, so its better to wage that war on a battleground you have prepared in advance. When the "fog of war" rolls in the advantage will still be Israel's advantage.

For these primary reasons I think Netanyahu will issue the execute order.

hartdawg said...

My personal feelings (perhaps you share them) is that id love to see Netanyahu openly defy obama, then shortly after see obama lose the elections. i hope you are right about obama being on his way out, frankly i don't share your confidence on that one.

Great Grany 5 said...

Sean,
what are the dates of the Fall Feasts? I think a lot of the timing will depend on that aspect and also, I would love to see Bibi tell the USA state depart,etal that Israel is a nation and quite capable of making their own decisions. In the first place, how much faith does Israel have, or for that matter, do we have that Boo Hoo means what he is saying. After all, in the Muslim faith, it is alright to lie when it comes to matters of the Islamic faith and winning over the enemies of Islam. That's us folks, right along with Israel.

I am praying that Sean is correct about the exit door swinging wide for the current occupiers but I think a lot of it will depend on the amount of the same type of voting corruption tht took place in 2008. Just how powerful is the extreme groups that are undermining our nation?

I am praying that God, in all of his wonderous power and purposes will put a huge hedge around all of these United States of America and that the hand of evil cannot be allowed to come into power in way, shape or form until that Which Holds Back is removed from the earth. Does that sound familiar?

Anyway, there isn't enough time or energy to waste any longer on trivia so, I have to get moving. Can you believe we are the generation that will see these things come into being? I am excited but also very cautious, paying attention to all the little foxes right along with the big bad wolves.

Shalom, GG5

sparrow said...

I'm also interested in how this will affect the fall feast times in Israel.

Rapture Forums said...

Sean,
What is your take on whether Israel will strike before the elections? I know that none of us can tell for sure, only time will, but I'm just curious as to what your "gut" feeling is? I see good merits for both before and after but just kind of remain undecided right now. Confused is more like it. LOL

I've thought about the scenarios and I think Israel would be making a big mistake waiting until after the elections. With the reports of the Obama admin purposefully leaking info to the media in order to sabotage any Israeli strike, I just don't get the feeling that Israel should trust him.

Also considering the passages in Ezekiel 38-39 suggest that the some (perhaps the West) will just sit there and watch instead of helping Israel out. That to me sounds like a perfect picture of the Obama admin.

What are your thoughts?

God bless.

Chrisd

SeanOsborne said...

Chris,

There are two likely windows in my assessment - one in September and one is October - if PM Netanyahu gives the execute order. I believe he will do so.

My comment above on 23 AUG adds body to the assessment by noting the actual strike package assets and historical templates likely to be used.

The positive criteria calling for a strike are listed in the second comment of that date.

All of this constitutes "my gut" on what could occur either 30 or 60 days from now.

SeanOsborne said...

GG5 and Sparrow asked about the dates for The Fall Feasts for this year.

The Feast of Trumpets (Rosh Hashanah and the "Days of Awe") occurs on 16-18 September 2012 (Jewish year 5773) which is smack dab in the middle of the first no-moon period I noted in the strike assessment.

In Jewish tradition this is the day of creation, and it marks a time of rebirth, and a call to repentance as well as divine judgment. The shofar, has a prominent role in this feast.

Incidentally, when it is precisely 11:56 AM in San Diego, CA on 18 September that moment will mark the start of my 58th orbit around the sun on planet earth. I will be blowing the shofar.

Yom Kippur (Day of Atonement) the most sacred day on the jewish calendar occurs on 25-26 September and Sukkot (Tabernacles) ocurs on 30 September to 7 October 2012.


Great Grany 5 said...

Those dates are very interesting indeed! So many of the prophecy teachers have believed for some time that the rapture will be somehow tied to the Rosh Hashanah. Interesting that it is also smack dab in the middle of one of your time sets.

I am a little acquainted with the signal for the Feast to begin, ie: the moon phase but I never gave it any kind of importance in our modern day scenario. It is way past wake up time and in some ways, I am relieved.

Oh, by the way, Congratulations to both Sean and Chris for their elevation to the Banned By Joel List. You guys earned it but I wonder just how hard headed that guy is. Is it possible that the Days of a strong delusion have already begun? I know the scriptures tell us it will begin after the rapture of the church but from all of the chatter on the internet I can't help but wonder.

Shalom,GG5

Rapture Forums said...

GG5,
I think the days of deception have arrived, in fact I'd say they have been here for quite some time. This is not the same thing as THE GREAT DELUSION OR LIE, but nonetheless we are seeing more and more people turn from sound teachings to embrace whatever new book (claiming new revelations) is on the market at the time. This is a disturbing pattern.

I also find it disturbing that people don't want to accept the Word of God as truth, as they want to re-write history to fit theories that are just ridiculous.

I think we will see more and more of that as the lines are blurred and people are swayed by shrewd snake oil salesmen promoting one new theory after another. Right now, one of the biggest deceptions is all this stock being placed into Islamic prophecy. We know that the koran is a counterfeit of the Bible and that the koran is satan inspired. Why anyone would put satan's word above God's word is just beyond me. We are told in the Bible to avoid the appearance of evil. We should not be placing one iota of faith or substance into satan's book. We need to stick solely with the Word of God.

We are also seeing some people fall away from God's promises of a pre-trib rapture. Satan is trying to plant seeds of doubt in order to rob people of their crowns for longing for His coming.

Satan is the name, and deception is the game. We need to march on with the Bible in one hand and the sword of God in the other while marching forward. God will take care of the rest. :-)

God bless.

Great Grany 5 said...

Chris,
I like the way you think!

I know about the deception is here but it also seems like delusion is running rampant also.

Shalom, GG5

Rapture Forums said...

The first of September is right around the corner. Keep watching, you never know what might happen.

SeanOsborne said...

Indeed! There are so many "irons in the fire" right now that just about anything could happen.

That's why for some time now I have metaphorically referred to these prophetic things as a line of dominoes.

Rapture Forums said...

I see that one of the latest news reports has Netanyahu "yelling" at U.S. diplomats. To me, that sounds like he is feeling betrayed that nothing is getting done.

Israel needs to do what Bolton said and use their right to attack. And now!! Forget about zero's elections, he can't be trusted as they are finding out.

Great Grany 5 said...

Seems Israel has replaced Egypt with the USA in terms of Go To For Help. Don't they remember the rebuke by Yahweh for doing that? I would love to see them take out Persia the same way they did Syrian processing plant in 2008. That was so quietly done and without the approval of anyone else.


Shalom,GG5

SeanOsborne said...

"And you will hear of wars and rumors of wars. See that you are not troubled; for all these things must come to pass, but the end is not yet."

Our Lord Jesus Christ as recorded in Matthew 24:6

I believe we (the Bride of Christ) are eyewitnesses to the literal fulfillment of this prophetic statement by our Lord.

It perfectly describes the current situation in the Middle East and beyond, both at this moment and for the immediate future.

And by His direction we are not to be troubled by them. They are birth pangs and harbingers of both our Harpazo as well as the coming of His Kingdom.

We are eyewitnesses to the literal fulfillment of Divine prophecy.

ragamuffin said...

Sean... your strike package appears to be based on prior history and typical conventional military mechanics. What are the possibilities of a limited precisely targeted EMP over central Iran? Seems to me this could be accomplished by a single rocket launch... from let's say the middle of some body of water... so nobody really know where it came from?

This would minimize Israel's need for any USA support... and would also allow them to maximize their defense forces at home.

SeanOsborne said...

ragamuffin,

What I have posted here is an IDF-derived assessment that notes two available windows of low observability which affords the best possibility of a successful NON-NUCLEAR strike.

A single NUCLEAR strike does not afford the best possibility of a successful strike and comes with very risky political price tag.

On the contrary, Israel will not use nuclear weapons in a preemptive first strike.