Global SITREP C7-16: Is Iran About To Cross the Rubicon?

Iranian General Mohammed-Reza Naghdi in Quneitra, Syrian Golan
Credit Screenshot: Fars News Agency/Ha'aretz

Update: See Global SITREP C8-16:Iran Crossing the Rubicon

31 July 2016: This morning, five days after-the-fact, Iran is denying anti-Iran Arab media reports that the commander of the Iranian Basij (Iranian paramilitary militia of the IRGC general command) Brigadier General Mohammed-Reza Naghdi was either killed or wounded in Israeli and rebel forces assassination attempts in the Syrian Golan last Tuesday (26 July).  

The Syrian side of the Golan around Quneitra has been the scene of heavy fighting between regime and rebel forces, with the regime and its allies using Highway 7 from Damascus as the Main Supply Route (MSR) into this very active battlefield. Cross-border fire has occurred heavier than usual in the past couple of weeks, with a much-publicized failed attempt by the IDF to shoot-down a Syrian/Iranian drone occurring on Sunday, 17 July. The drone was about 2.5 miles inside Israel airspace at its deepest penetration.

There is no doubt doubt that BG Naghdi was in the Golan region near Israel's border. The Sunni Arab media created a circus-like fuss concerning his presence in southern Syria last week which was confirmed via a video and screenshots from the video published by Iran's semi-official Fars News Agency and the official Basij media itself, along with accompanying text which confirmed his "powerful presence" in Quneitra governorate; a screenshot of the video is seen above. I would assess the image above was taken very near to al-Hmidaiah (al-Hamediyya) village which is about one mile north of Quneitra and approximately 2000 feet from UNDOF Line Alpha separating that no-mans-land from Israel's Golan territory. This is one of the hottest front-lines in Quneitra governorate.

Those images were published on Wednesday, approximately 24 hours after the reported decapitation strike attempt was made. BG Naghdi's presence on the Golan would not have gone unnoticed by Israeli military intelligence, and an order to launch an opportune decapitation strike would have been received by the IDF directly from PM Netanyahu's war cabinet. As we all know, such a decapitation strike by Israel against IRGC and Hezbollah leadership on the Golan, most notably the strike which killed IRGC BG Mohammed Ali Allahdadi and Hezbollah commander Jihad Mughniyeh, son of the also deceased Hezbollah terrorist Imad Fayed Mughniyeh, on 19 January 2015. The reported IDF attempt was also probably not lost on anti-regime rebels who very likely followed it with their own mortar artillery barrage on a target easily identified by pillars of smoke. 

So, the question Eschatology Today would like to have answered in the affirmative is: Did an Israeli missile strike occur occur in Quneitra on 26 July? Simply stated, Israel has never and will never discuss reports of IDF military action made by foreign media. However, it is very much in evidence that some kind of offensive action did take place, and that action validates the fourth bullet and two concluding sentences of the original 22 July portion of this SITREP regarding the IRGC's intent, and Israel's certain response to it.

I would make note of the illustrated fact that whatever line-of-sight view into Israeli positions BG Naghdi was observing through his binoculars would be just as observable by an Israeli ground or airborne targeting system in guiding a pair of IDF Nimrod missiles to their target in the Golan. History is on the side of an IDF strike occurring last Tuesday against a high-priority enemy target. The next SITREP could well be about renewed warfare on the Golan and in Lebanon.

Iran's Ethnic Diversity (U.S. Institute of Peace)

Update 28 July 2016: An article written by Lea Speyer was posted yesterday on The Algemeiner (Mideast Analyst: Iran in Throes of Domestic Battle as Ethnic Groups Carry Out Attacks Against Regime Targets) immediately brought to mind some near-term prophetic themes for these 'last days' that are found in Jesus' Olivet Discourse according to Matthew 24:7 and the prophecy of Jeremiah concerning the fate of Iran found in chapter 49, verse 37 (respectively), 

"For nation (ethnos) shall rise against nation (ethnos), and kingdom against kingdom..."

"For I will cause Elam to be dismayed before their enemies, and before them that seek their life: and I will bring evil upon them, even my fierce anger, saith the Lord; and I will send the sword after them, till I have consumed them."

The analyst of the cited report that was originally published on 24 July by the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs (JCPA) is IDF Lt. Col. (retired) Michael Segall. The image at the head of the JCPA report is seen above. The analysis by LTC Segall, as all who go to the linked report can see, contains the following bullets:

• Since June 2016, Iran has been enduring terror attacks and assassinations by ethnic-opposition elements operating within its territory and adjacent to it.
• Attacks on Iranian petroleum infrastructure in Ahvaz are a reaction to Iran’s ongoing repressive policy against the Arab minority in Ahvaz, including the ongoing arrests, trials, executions, and expulsions of young people in that area.
• There are currently six to seven million Kurds living in Iran. Although they are part of the Iranian state, they may be distinguished from the Shiite minority by language and religion (most Kurds are Sunnis).
• The Arab Sunni fighters’ targeting of the oil facilities, if it gains momentum, could pose a problem for Iran just as it is trying to renew oil exports after the lifting of sanctions. Attacks on energy infrastructure for gas and oil could foster an unsafe, unstable environment for international energy companies.
• Iran’s security forces have been cracking down on the Arabs, augmenting this population’s discontent along with its separatist aspirations.
• The Iranian regime, which so far has been spared the regional repercussions of the Arab Spring – or Islamic Awakening as the regime calls it – is now starting to feel the effects.

As seen in the report's accompanying images, these attacks by ethnic Arab Sunni jihadists against the ethnic Persian Shi'a mullah-led government's internal infrastructure are by no means mere pinpricks, but are indeed major attacks that will take months if not years to repair or rebuild completely, if that is possible in the face of the promised continuation of these attacks against the "Iranian interior." A photo of the aftermath of the early June 2016 attack in Bandar-E Mahshahr, Khuzestan province, Iran on the Bou-Ali-Sina petrochemical complex is seen below.

The sabotaged Bou-Ali-Sina Petrochemical Complex in Bandar-E Mahshahr, Khuzestan

This and other attacks against Iran's oil and gas industry, most recently occurring on 11 and 17 July, has caused a "state of emergency" to be declared by the Ayatollah's regime. Moreover, the ethnic Sunni Arab insurrection going on inside Iran is not being lost on their brethren Sunni Arabs living in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Kuwait, Jordan, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia. They are taking keen note of it as evidenced in their social media websites. 

As has been noted previously in several articles here on Eschatology Today,  the bulk of the Iranian nuclear infrastructure is located on the territory of ancient Elam, and not surprisingly so to is the emergent "sword" of the insurrection against the regime based on ancient Elamite soil, known today as Ahvaz and Khuzestan. If you believe Bible prophecy, if you believe in the literal word of God, then this fact is of no great surprise to you. If you do not believe the prophetic word of God is literal, then this fact must grab your attention and cause you to reconsider your views about Bible prophecy. If this prophetic content is literal and true, then so is the Gospel of Jesus Christ and your need to cover your sin with the Blood of the Lamb of God.

So, have we seen anything in American media of this ethnic insurrection and ongoing civil warfare occurring within Iran? No, we have not, and the reason why we have not seen it is because that kinds of reporting would be diametrically opposed to the entirely bogus narrative on Iran that the Obama Administration has been deceiving the American people with for years now, or, at the minimum, those Americans who will blindly voting pro-Obama to elect the Democrat ticket in the November presidential election. 

And, not surprisingly, the Iranian government-controlled media are largely failing to report on the Arab insurrection in the country's southwestern region, and also other attacks by Kurdish militia in the northwest and other Sunni militias in the easternmost provinces of Khorasan, Kerman and Sistan-va-Balochestan on the borders of Afghanistan and Pakistan. The stated goal of the Sunni insurrection in Iran is the total liberation of every last inch of soil upon which they live from the Shi'a regime in Tehran. 

Are they the "sword" the LORD has brought after the Ayatollah's regime? I believe they are, in part, because our God is Sovereign and does as He pleases to bring about His will. In the near future another larger military "sword" will be brought against this evil Shi'a regime.

Also noted is the doubtfulness that numerous foreign oil and gas corporations will invest their fortune, time, materials and civilian workers in Iran regardless of the sanctions having been lifted as a result of the equally bogus Iran nuclear deal.

All of this relates to literal fulfillment of God-breathed prophecy regarding Iran and its near term future. However, it will not keep Iran from participating in the event described by Ezekiel 38/39, but an active, large-scale insurrection on your home soil would keep any regime from committing its full military resources in an adventure against Israel (where they will be utterly destroyed). The forces Iran keeps at home will have their fate decided in the full, consuming context of Jeremiah 49:34-39. 

Iranian troops on parade

22 July 2016: Asking if Iran is about to cross the Rubicon is the same as asking if Iran is about to reach the point of no return, per the prophecy of Jeremiah 49:34-39.

Iranian boastfulness is nothing new; their military leaders and clerics have long gained infamous notoriety for making such bellicose commentaries from time to time since the advent of the Islamic Republic. 

However, this time things are different I think given the year since the insane Obama nuclear deal infused the Islamic Republic with cold, hard cash and put the theocratic dictatorship on a fast track to nuclear weapons capability. 

This is likely the backdrop and basis for the content of a speech made yesterday, 21 July 2016, by the Commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, Major General Mohammed Ali Jafari.

An accurate, paraphrased executive summary of MG Jafari's speech goes something like this.

• Iran is now fully prepared and capable of seizing any and all ships of its choosing which "trespass" into the Persian Gulf.
• Iran is now fully prepared and capable of "sending US warships to the depths of the Persian Gulf."
• Certain countries in the region, like the Saudi's, have joined the group of Iran's clear enemies. 
• The IRGC's traditional role has been an armed group that defends the Revolution, and only deals with defense and war, and behaves like like other armed forces in the world. Now, the IRGC can no longer limit its duty to armed protection of the Revolution; the very nature of the IRGC requires its direct supervision over the Revolution.

It's just an early assessment, but this sounds like a military commander about to embark on an offensive warfighting campaign in regions and against the armed forces other than those in the Eastern Mediterranean Littoral (Syria, Lebanon, Israel), or wage war by proxy armies in Iraq and Yemen.  

The Iranian Shi'a Hojjatieh revolution has always been about spreading its theology to the rest of the world. To earnestly begin that process requires a direct confrontation against the armed forces of the United States and its allies, and Saudi Arabia and its allies. MG Jafari appears to have just instructed his subordinate commanders that the time for great conflict has arrived.