Global SITREP C6-20: Eyes on Lebanon

 

Hezbollah's Beirut Missile Sites

4 October 2020: With the IDF's very public releasing of intelligence this week (GPS image above) on Hezbollah's precision missile manufacturing sites in residential neighborhoods of Beirut, it isn't, pun intended, "rocket science" to assess that precision Israel Air Force strikes on these locations are an imminent probability.

Poor Beirut, as if it hasn't had an abundance of of massive explosions and fires of late, it's problems have compounded thanks to Hezbollah's stupidity. Following the IDF intel release, which PM Netanyahu had promptly revealed to the world during his U.N. address, Hezbollah organized a rather hasty tour for media through the neighborhood buildings and structures which had been identified, as if to show Israel's intel was bogus. 

To the contrary, the video tour validated the Israeli intel as beyond reproach as specific machinery and dual use technologies (lasers, hydraulic and manual metal benders) for precision rocket manufacturing were clearly identified in the Beirut residential neighborhoods of Janah, Laylaki and Chouaifet. The Hezbollah factories are located under apartment buildings adjacent to a mosque, gas station and a medical facility.

Hezbollah did not deserve this advance warning of Israel's intelligence gathering successes and detailed knowledge of its activities, yet it serves as the clearest warning possible to the people in these Beirut neighborhoods and Hezbollah itself of exactly where the next IAF air assault will occur. 

Given recent history since 4 August in Beirut one can understand how the local population feels about Hezbollah and its Iranian masters activities underneath their homes, wives and children. We will probably read about the IAF knocking on the roofs of these structures as a final warning for the people to move, or for them to dismantle the factories themselves before Israel does.

Our eyes remain on Beirut, and elsewhere.

Global SITREP B5-19: IAF Standoff Strike on Iran in Syria

DELILAH ALCM: 25 YEARS OF SUCCESSES

UPDATED 17 April 2019: A (clickable) ISI satellite photo reconnaissance image has been added below showing the utter devastation the IAF's Delilah missiles wrought on the Syrian-Iranian missile installation in Masyaf. This area has at least one Russian S-400 and three newly acquired Syrian S-300 anti-air missile batteries very nearby for defense. None of them were activated to bring down Israel's now decades old Delilah missiles. The Iranian's must be completely livid with their erstwhile Russian and Syrian allies as strike after strike of the IAF occurs unimpeded, laying waste to their facilities and personnel with regularity and precision.

Now, for those who are wondering, here is the prophetic perspective that Eschatology Today believes is in play here. As noted several times previously, the military action that is described by the Scriptures in Isaiah 17 and Jeremiah 49:23-27 make it crystal clear that Damascus is a populated city during a time of conflict when catastrophe strikes. Jeremiah was inspired by the LORD God to make a lamentable point of this fact in verse 25: "Why is the city of praise not deserted, the city of My joy?" All who are in Damascus at that time shall fall over dead in her streets; they will be cut off by fire.

As can be seen in this image of Tahrir Square in Damascus taken on the morning of Monday, 15 APRIL 2019 this city is anything but a heap of ruins. The drivers of these  hundreds of taxis and  privately owned cars are protesting the severe shortage of gasoline in the city. The Al-Firdous Mosque is directly across the square from the camera's point of view. Does Damascus look deserted? Is it in ruins? Tahrir Square is downtown Damascus. The "Grandpa Fuel Station" is on the right-hand side of this image. The prophecies of Isaiah 17 and Jeremiah 49:23-27 are most certainly in a process of fulfillment, but obviously they have not yet arrived at that point. Soon.

The 21st Century destruction of Damascus has the appearance of a nuclear strike according to the Scriptures. So this begs the question: Is this destruction of Damascus the result of a Syrian/Iranian biological/chemical first strike upon Israel? This is the view Eschatology Today has held for at least two decades. And that means a strong concern that the expected retaliation - of which there has been exactly zero of any consequence thus far since the IAF strikes began - could be exactly that, a bio-chem WMD strike upon Israel for which Israel retaliates by nuking Damascus. 

And that is the point where it really hits the fan, because as Isaiah tells us, not only does Damascus get burnt and crisped, but the whole of Syria fails to survive the conflict. This also is a likely scenario under which all of the other prophetic flood of prophecies go into fulfillment. Why wouldn't Israel's enemies go full bore after her, as Asaph informs in Psalm 83, when they see an Israel reeling following a substantial WMD attack? In military tactical and strategic terms, it's a virtual no-brainer, yet we'll see how it actually transpires.

13 April 2019: Last year when Russia delivered the S-300 anti-air missile batteries to Syria and began training Syrian troops in their operation, many hand-wringers said that it marked the end of Israel's freedom of action in Syrian skies. What took place at 02:30 in the morning today at Masyaf, Syria resoundingly put that falsehood to bed without any supper.

The secondary site of Iranian-Syrian facilities in Masyaf for making precision improvements to the highly mobile, Iranian-made Zelzal-2 rockets, were wiped out by the Israeli F-16I Sufa aircraft while over over Sidon, Lebanon, a distance of about 250 kilometers. From this location the Sufa's cut loose their battle-proven Delilah Air Launched Cruise Missiles (ALCM). It was these vary facilities which received a contingent of the Syrian-manned S-300s specifically to defend them from Israeli air attack. In 2018 the primary facilities in this area, about a dozen buildings in total, was struck by the IAF, wiping out the entire chain-like series of missile production facilities (35.10N 36.38E). The strike this morning took out the closely related facilities (35.08N 36.34E) about 2 miles to the southwest.

INTELLI TIMES Composite Image of the Masyaf strike of 2018-2019

Same buildings as in left-side of the image above, but rotated a little over 45 degrees to the right.
Notice the primary missile production hangers are utterly obliterated. Courtesy: ISI.

In the past week, and perhaps much longer, IRGC-linked 747 cargo aircraft have been closely monitored by Israel and the U.S. intelligence collection assets as they flew from Iran to the Syrian T4 Air Base. Dozens of round-trips have been catalogued. It was apparently assessed that specialized components and other materials were then transported overland, through Homs, to the second group of facilities at Masyaf. A little more than three days since the Netanyahu/Likud election victory and the war to remove Iran from Syria has been resumed. Now the watch for some type of retaliation begins.

Global SITREP E3-16: IDF Publishes AOOB for Lebanese Hezbollah in Southeast Lebanon

IDF Air Order Of Battle for Lebanese Hezbollah

07 December 2016: Yesterday the IDF Spokesperson's Office posted to its Twitter account what amounts to an approved, declassified public release of the IAF's color-coded Air Order of Battle (AOOB) for Hezbollah and IRGC targets in southeastern Lebanon.  The IDF is on record for months now saying that its next war with Hezbollah will be the last war with Hezbollah. This image would tend to confirm that battle plan.

The color-coding within the above image lends itself to understanding how the IDF has prioritized its targeting data and how this war will be prosecuted against Hezbollah from Day One to Day X.  I would surmise the prioritization is Green Dots (Communications, Command and Control - i.e. C3 targets) and Blue Dots (fixed offensive weapons positions) and Black Dots for the obvious reasons. Pink, Orange and Purple dots are subsequent targets during the landwarfare phase of the coming war.

08 December 2016: The coming war? Didn't President-elect Donald Trump yesterday near the home of the 82nd Airborne Division and US Army Special Operation Command (USASOC) say that America would "stop toppling foreign regimes that we know nothing about, that we shouldn't be involved with." Yes, indeed he said that loud and clear. 

However, he also said loudly and clearly so that his words could be heard at the same volume in Tehran, Iran. He said, "Instead, our focus must be on defeating terrorism and destroying ISIS, and we will."  The emphasis here is on the phrase "defeating terrorism," because the Islamic Republic of Iran is the world's number one terrorist state and has been in a state of war against the United States of America for the past 35 years. 

President-elect Trump has also said he will completely enforce the compliance of Iran on the ridiculous nuclear agreement his predecessor and his EU allies made with Iran. This is an agreement that the government of Iran has thus far never officially accepted nor ratified nor abides by in full compliance. So how does one completely enforce a nuclear agreement that Iran, the world's number one terrorist state, has not accepted or ratified nor abides by? By force of arms, that's how.

So, did you see or feel the tectonic shift which just occurred within this SITREP? We went from Israel vs. Hezbollah and Iran in Lebanon to the US vs. Iran in Iran. Has this blog not given a sort of 'heads up' warning for months now of a literal flood of prophetic fulfillments in these final months and years prior to the start of the 70th Week. Yes, indeed these warnings have been given. And a flood of prophetic fulfillments literally links them all together, like a series of cascading prophetic dominoes. One tips over the next. I think you're getting the picture now.

9 December 2016: At the beginning of His sermon on the Mount of Olives, our Lord Jesus said that at the end of the current age and of the things there were to come there would be wars (akouō polemos: literally meaning the Jewish people would hear with their own ears both single battles and series of battles) and rumors of wars (akoē polemos: literally meaning the learning from multiple reports of battles occurring elsewhere), and "take heed, do not be frightened by these, they must take place, but notwithstanding these battles and wars, the end is not yet." 

He immediately followed that prophetic statement saying literally "For multitudes of foreign heathen (not worshipers of the true God) shall rise against multitudes of foreign heathen (also not worshipers of the true God), and kingdom against kingdom..."  

I hope we are all aware that this is precisely and exactly what has been occurring close to the borders of Israel - close enough so that some of these battles between heathen armies can be heard by Israeli ears, and others are conveyed in news reports coming from the neighboring lands. Non-state foreign heathen warriors are at war with other non-state foreign heathen warriors; non-state foreign heathen warriors are at war with foreign heathen nation states, and nation states are at war with nation states. Jesus in these two prophetic sentences perfectly described the current situation in Syria, just across and within hearing distance of the Israeli Golan, and just as is seen in the map above. The rest comes in media reports, again, exactly as He said it would happen. Indeed, we know there is more to come.

"Take heed, do not be frightened by these, they must take place, but notwithstanding these battles and wars, the end is not yet."

Global SITREP C7-16: Is Iran About To Cross the Rubicon?

Iranian General Mohammed-Reza Naghdi in Quneitra, Syrian Golan
Credit Screenshot: Fars News Agency/Ha'aretz

Update: See Global SITREP C8-16:Iran Crossing the Rubicon

31 July 2016: This morning, five days after-the-fact, Iran is denying anti-Iran Arab media reports that the commander of the Iranian Basij (Iranian paramilitary militia of the IRGC general command) Brigadier General Mohammed-Reza Naghdi was either killed or wounded in Israeli and rebel forces assassination attempts in the Syrian Golan last Tuesday (26 July).  

The Syrian side of the Golan around Quneitra has been the scene of heavy fighting between regime and rebel forces, with the regime and its allies using Highway 7 from Damascus as the Main Supply Route (MSR) into this very active battlefield. Cross-border fire has occurred heavier than usual in the past couple of weeks, with a much-publicized failed attempt by the IDF to shoot-down a Syrian/Iranian drone occurring on Sunday, 17 July. The drone was about 2.5 miles inside Israel airspace at its deepest penetration.

There is no doubt doubt that BG Naghdi was in the Golan region near Israel's border. The Sunni Arab media created a circus-like fuss concerning his presence in southern Syria last week which was confirmed via a video and screenshots from the video published by Iran's semi-official Fars News Agency and the official Basij media itself, along with accompanying text which confirmed his "powerful presence" in Quneitra governorate; a screenshot of the video is seen above. I would assess the image above was taken very near to al-Hmidaiah (al-Hamediyya) village which is about one mile north of Quneitra and approximately 2000 feet from UNDOF Line Alpha separating that no-mans-land from Israel's Golan territory. This is one of the hottest front-lines in Quneitra governorate.

Those images were published on Wednesday, approximately 24 hours after the reported decapitation strike attempt was made. BG Naghdi's presence on the Golan would not have gone unnoticed by Israeli military intelligence, and an order to launch an opportune decapitation strike would have been received by the IDF directly from PM Netanyahu's war cabinet. As we all know, such a decapitation strike by Israel against IRGC and Hezbollah leadership on the Golan, most notably the strike which killed IRGC BG Mohammed Ali Allahdadi and Hezbollah commander Jihad Mughniyeh, son of the also deceased Hezbollah terrorist Imad Fayed Mughniyeh, on 19 January 2015. The reported IDF attempt was also probably not lost on anti-regime rebels who very likely followed it with their own mortar artillery barrage on a target easily identified by pillars of smoke. 

So, the question Eschatology Today would like to have answered in the affirmative is: Did an Israeli missile strike occur occur in Quneitra on 26 July? Simply stated, Israel has never and will never discuss reports of IDF military action made by foreign media. However, it is very much in evidence that some kind of offensive action did take place, and that action validates the fourth bullet and two concluding sentences of the original 22 July portion of this SITREP regarding the IRGC's intent, and Israel's certain response to it.

I would make note of the illustrated fact that whatever line-of-sight view into Israeli positions BG Naghdi was observing through his binoculars would be just as observable by an Israeli ground or airborne targeting system in guiding a pair of IDF Nimrod missiles to their target in the Golan. History is on the side of an IDF strike occurring last Tuesday against a high-priority enemy target. The next SITREP could well be about renewed warfare on the Golan and in Lebanon.

Iran's Ethnic Diversity (U.S. Institute of Peace)

Update 28 July 2016: An article written by Lea Speyer was posted yesterday on The Algemeiner (Mideast Analyst: Iran in Throes of Domestic Battle as Ethnic Groups Carry Out Attacks Against Regime Targets) immediately brought to mind some near-term prophetic themes for these 'last days' that are found in Jesus' Olivet Discourse according to Matthew 24:7 and the prophecy of Jeremiah concerning the fate of Iran found in chapter 49, verse 37 (respectively), 

"For nation (ethnos) shall rise against nation (ethnos), and kingdom against kingdom..."

"For I will cause Elam to be dismayed before their enemies, and before them that seek their life: and I will bring evil upon them, even my fierce anger, saith the Lord; and I will send the sword after them, till I have consumed them."

The analyst of the cited report that was originally published on 24 July by the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs (JCPA) is IDF Lt. Col. (retired) Michael Segall. The image at the head of the JCPA report is seen above. The analysis by LTC Segall, as all who go to the linked report can see, contains the following bullets:

• Since June 2016, Iran has been enduring terror attacks and assassinations by ethnic-opposition elements operating within its territory and adjacent to it.
• Attacks on Iranian petroleum infrastructure in Ahvaz are a reaction to Iran’s ongoing repressive policy against the Arab minority in Ahvaz, including the ongoing arrests, trials, executions, and expulsions of young people in that area.
• There are currently six to seven million Kurds living in Iran. Although they are part of the Iranian state, they may be distinguished from the Shiite minority by language and religion (most Kurds are Sunnis).
• The Arab Sunni fighters’ targeting of the oil facilities, if it gains momentum, could pose a problem for Iran just as it is trying to renew oil exports after the lifting of sanctions. Attacks on energy infrastructure for gas and oil could foster an unsafe, unstable environment for international energy companies.
• Iran’s security forces have been cracking down on the Arabs, augmenting this population’s discontent along with its separatist aspirations.
• The Iranian regime, which so far has been spared the regional repercussions of the Arab Spring – or Islamic Awakening as the regime calls it – is now starting to feel the effects.

As seen in the report's accompanying images, these attacks by ethnic Arab Sunni jihadists against the ethnic Persian Shi'a mullah-led government's internal infrastructure are by no means mere pinpricks, but are indeed major attacks that will take months if not years to repair or rebuild completely, if that is possible in the face of the promised continuation of these attacks against the "Iranian interior." A photo of the aftermath of the early June 2016 attack in Bandar-E Mahshahr, Khuzestan province, Iran on the Bou-Ali-Sina petrochemical complex is seen below.

The sabotaged Bou-Ali-Sina Petrochemical Complex in Bandar-E Mahshahr, Khuzestan

This and other attacks against Iran's oil and gas industry, most recently occurring on 11 and 17 July, has caused a "state of emergency" to be declared by the Ayatollah's regime. Moreover, the ethnic Sunni Arab insurrection going on inside Iran is not being lost on their brethren Sunni Arabs living in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Kuwait, Jordan, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia. They are taking keen note of it as evidenced in their social media websites. 

As has been noted previously in several articles here on Eschatology Today,  the bulk of the Iranian nuclear infrastructure is located on the territory of ancient Elam, and not surprisingly so to is the emergent "sword" of the insurrection against the regime based on ancient Elamite soil, known today as Ahvaz and Khuzestan. If you believe Bible prophecy, if you believe in the literal word of God, then this fact is of no great surprise to you. If you do not believe the prophetic word of God is literal, then this fact must grab your attention and cause you to reconsider your views about Bible prophecy. If this prophetic content is literal and true, then so is the Gospel of Jesus Christ and your need to cover your sin with the Blood of the Lamb of God.

So, have we seen anything in American media of this ethnic insurrection and ongoing civil warfare occurring within Iran? No, we have not, and the reason why we have not seen it is because that kinds of reporting would be diametrically opposed to the entirely bogus narrative on Iran that the Obama Administration has been deceiving the American people with for years now, or, at the minimum, those Americans who will blindly voting pro-Obama to elect the Democrat ticket in the November presidential election. 

And, not surprisingly, the Iranian government-controlled media are largely failing to report on the Arab insurrection in the country's southwestern region, and also other attacks by Kurdish militia in the northwest and other Sunni militias in the easternmost provinces of Khorasan, Kerman and Sistan-va-Balochestan on the borders of Afghanistan and Pakistan. The stated goal of the Sunni insurrection in Iran is the total liberation of every last inch of soil upon which they live from the Shi'a regime in Tehran. 

Are they the "sword" the LORD has brought after the Ayatollah's regime? I believe they are, in part, because our God is Sovereign and does as He pleases to bring about His will. In the near future another larger military "sword" will be brought against this evil Shi'a regime.

Also noted is the doubtfulness that numerous foreign oil and gas corporations will invest their fortune, time, materials and civilian workers in Iran regardless of the sanctions having been lifted as a result of the equally bogus Iran nuclear deal.

All of this relates to literal fulfillment of God-breathed prophecy regarding Iran and its near term future. However, it will not keep Iran from participating in the event described by Ezekiel 38/39, but an active, large-scale insurrection on your home soil would keep any regime from committing its full military resources in an adventure against Israel (where they will be utterly destroyed). The forces Iran keeps at home will have their fate decided in the full, consuming context of Jeremiah 49:34-39. 

Iranian troops on parade

22 July 2016: Asking if Iran is about to cross the Rubicon is the same as asking if Iran is about to reach the point of no return, per the prophecy of Jeremiah 49:34-39.

Iranian boastfulness is nothing new; their military leaders and clerics have long gained infamous notoriety for making such bellicose commentaries from time to time since the advent of the Islamic Republic. 

However, this time things are different I think given the year since the insane Obama nuclear deal infused the Islamic Republic with cold, hard cash and put the theocratic dictatorship on a fast track to nuclear weapons capability. 

This is likely the backdrop and basis for the content of a speech made yesterday, 21 July 2016, by the Commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, Major General Mohammed Ali Jafari.

An accurate, paraphrased executive summary of MG Jafari's speech goes something like this.

• Iran is now fully prepared and capable of seizing any and all ships of its choosing which "trespass" into the Persian Gulf.
• Iran is now fully prepared and capable of "sending US warships to the depths of the Persian Gulf."
• Certain countries in the region, like the Saudi's, have joined the group of Iran's clear enemies. 
• The IRGC's traditional role has been an armed group that defends the Revolution, and only deals with defense and war, and behaves like like other armed forces in the world. Now, the IRGC can no longer limit its duty to armed protection of the Revolution; the very nature of the IRGC requires its direct supervision over the Revolution.

It's just an early assessment, but this sounds like a military commander about to embark on an offensive warfighting campaign in regions and against the armed forces other than those in the Eastern Mediterranean Littoral (Syria, Lebanon, Israel), or wage war by proxy armies in Iraq and Yemen.  

The Iranian Shi'a Hojjatieh revolution has always been about spreading its theology to the rest of the world. To earnestly begin that process requires a direct confrontation against the armed forces of the United States and its allies, and Saudi Arabia and its allies. MG Jafari appears to have just instructed his subordinate commanders that the time for great conflict has arrived.

Global SITREP A3-16: The Invisible Persian Gulf Tsunami

UPDATE 19 January 2016: This link to AmericanThinker.com will provide the reader with former U.S. Navy SEAL Matt Bracken's assessment on what was really going on last week in the middle of the Persian Gulf. This is a MUST read for those week seek the truth not coming from Obama's lap dog media.

17 January 2016: No single image has exposed the abject malfeasance of the Obama Administration and its military rules of engagement (ROE) than the above image of the two crews of the two U.S. Navy combat watercraft surrendering, weapons still cold from not firing a single shot, to Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps naval forces in the Persian Gulf. This image and others in a series of images released by the Iranian regime has resulted in a tsunami of unprecedented intensity through the entirety of the United States Armed Forces.

That these US Navy combat vessels did not know their location is belied by the fact that Iran seized as a part of its booty the DAGR GPS (Defense Advanced GPS Receiver) devices which were on board both vessels. An image of the DAGR GPS is above. 

These devices, along with their integrated and now fully compromised COMSEC (Communications Security) electronic circuits, were also summarily surrendered to Iran by the Obama Administration. This loss is a high level crime and misdemeanor. Per American federal law (Title 18, US Code sections 641, 793, 798 and 952) it is illegal for any person or organization to be in possession of these devices irregardless of the fact that they are operational or not without the express authorization of the U.S. National Security Agency (NSA). The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps now has possession of at least two DAGR GPS devices. And the U.S. Congress has done exactly what about this compromise?

In recent times we have seen the illegal launching of Iranian nuclear-capable missiles and volley missile fire in very close proximity and with virtually no warning as the USS Truman Carrier Strike Group transited the Strait of Hormuz. No reaction of substance from the Obama Administration whatsoever to these overt provocations.

More importantly, The IRGC Naval Commander, Rear Admiral Ali Fadavi (image above) claimed that news of the IRGC seizure of the two small combat craft was reflected in preparations for combat operations that were immediately executed over a forty-minute period by the USS Truman CSG. The Truman's obvious call to battle stations also resulted in Iran targeting the Truman CSG with its shore-based missile batteries and other naval missile firing platforms. War was imminent.

I have no doubt that yet another in a now infamous series of "stand down" orders was issued by the Obama Administration on 13 January to the US naval commanders afloat in the Persian Gulf and other US military commands in the region. 

The "stand down" order was issued within three days (16 January) of the JCPOA nuclear deal lifting of sanctions on Iran and the freeing of $100 billion in frozen cash assets. These things could not have occurred had the United States Navy gone to war with the Iranian regime on Wednesday of this past week. As suspected, what is truly sacred to the Obama Administration above all other things is on full display to all who would dare to look with eyes wide open.

How completely revealing of Iran's true intentions, and the internal Iranian political struggle noted on 28 December (see: fourth paragraph of SITREP E10-15) is it that within 72 hours of the lifting of sanctions the Ayatollah-led IRGC would literally go to the brink of war with America, a war they have ostensibly had been working to avoid at all cost by engaging in the nuclear weapons JCPOA negotiations to begin with? 

There is a point coming where orders from this White House will no longer be considered lawful and will be disobeyed. This is when the invisible Persian Gulf tsunami will have hit Washington DC.

Global SITREP A30-13: A Nuclear Iran

26 September 2013: It appears that the worst fears of many regarding a nuclear-armed Islamic Republic of Iran may well be realized, and we have a DEBKAfile article published yesterday and the Ayatollah Khamenei and IRGC-linked Kayhan newspaper published in Tehran this morning to thank for the confirmation of those fears.

Yesterday DEBKAfile published an article in which it reported that President Obama has been in direct secret negotiations (led by SECSTATE John Kerry) with Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his newly elected sock-puppet president Hassan Rouhani. The core issue in the DEBKAfile report on the secret deal is that Obama has caved-in and accepted Iranian nuclear enrichment capability at 20% as well as all of the stocks of fissionable uranium possessed by Iran. Additional details are at the link.

In exchange for Obama's epic proportion cave-in Iran will agree to limit the number of enrichment centrifuges operating at its Natanz facility. The number of advanced IR2 and IR1 centrifuges Iran will be limited to is unknown. There is no mention of the many other Iranian enrichment facilities known to be in operation. Also completely absent are any undeclared sites involved in the Iranian nuclear weapons program, or what penalties might be incurred should Iran secretly execute the short hop from 20% to a weapons grade level enrichment of uranium. This sounds like a trust but verify secret deal with the IAEA in full control of the verify portion.

This morning the Kayhan newspaper published a front-page article under a red-letter banner headline declaring that DEBKAfile had revealed the details of the secret US-Iranian nuclear agreement. 

What I wouldn't give to be a fly on the wall of Israeli PM Bibi Netanyahu's next Security Cabinet and fully-staffed National Security Council meetings. For that matter, as loud as voices might be raised anywhere in a near vicinity might suffice.

Global SITREP A11-13: No 'Game Changer' for Hezbollah/IRGC

 IAF F-16I Sufa

After Action Update 7 May 2013: There are more articles, Op-Eds, speculations, and just plain wild-donkey guesses on what has occurred, what has resulted and what will happen next between Israel, Syria, Lebanon (Hezbollah) and Iran than anyone can shake a stick at.

Nobody can possibly predict what will happen in the next 24-48 hours because no one knows through the current fog of war what has just taken place in its totality.

The very best that can be said is that absolutely surreal and total chaos reigns supreme around Damascus, Syria.

This surreal chaos was captured its best and rawest form through a video which was obviously recorded by anti-Assad jihadist rebels of the assault that occurred on the western slopes of Mount Qasioun, the slopes that are on the far side from Damascus, facing Hezbollah and Iranian controlled central Lebanon.

In this video, posted in its raw form on YouTube, the rebels are heard in the audio track whispering and then shouting the Islamic takbir "Allah-hu Akhbar" (Allah is Greater!) as Israeli Air Force F-16I Sufa strike aircraft fire rockets and drop very large ordnance that erupts in tremendous explosions, thunders, pops and a massive fireball which turned night into day and whose shock-wave registered a 4 on the Richter scale for seismic activity. This same video was replayed endlessly on US evening news reports Monday night but without the accompanying Islamic jihadist soundtrack.

What can possibly emerge out of such utter chaos than a more unprecedented chaotic result? I think we all know the answer to this, but we're all still holding our collective breath less we speak the unspeakable horror that will result from a fulfillment of Isaiah 17 in the next few days. I am only reminded and reassured of Jesus' prophetic words concerning these very wars and rumors of wars: "See that you are not troubled; for all these things must come to pass, but the end is not yet." (Matthew 24:6 NKJV)

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UPDATE 05  May 2013: The missiles that Israel has struck in Syria between Friday and early this morning is the subject of the update to this SITREP.  These missiles, according to most main stream media reports are Fateh-110's that were allegedly struck in a warehouse at Damascus International Airport, and which also reportedly would constitute a "game changer" have been in Hezbollah's possession since January 2010 in Lebanon according to Israeli media report (Naharnet) that was confirmed by the IDF. These same missiles, which are also known by a different name (M-600) were transferred to Hezbollah from Syria and made operational three years ago.

This advanced missile transfer wasn't a "game changer" three years ago, but it is today? Sorry, but I'm not buying that story - there is something much bigger going on that would suddenly get Israel to do what it did this past January, and again this past Friday morning in Damascus, and - based upon new information - a third massive attack has just occurred in the same Qudssaya area west of Damascus that was hit in January. I was going to update this SITREP with the new info, but how do you update something that was news from my perspective on this blog three years ago? Just because the MSM wasn't paying detailed attention to those critical events is not something I'm going to worry about now.

So, for the bulk of this update to the current situation I must first direct your attention "back to the future," to the report I researched and posted here on Eschatology Today three years ago:

The Syrian Missile Crisis: Threat of War Very Real : Friday, May 14, 2010 

So what could the "something much bigger" be that has caused Israel to determine it had collected, analyzed and decided it must now act upon as a "red line" too far?  I believe that Israel, perhaps with American assistance or perhaps not, but certainly with American concurrence, has determined that Iran, through their Hezbollah/IRGC forces in Lebanon had made final preparations to attack Israel's Dimona Nuclear Power Plant with the missiles and advanced warheads that are being struck in their staging areas around Damascus.

I think the key part of the intelligence assessment that made the determination were the two Iranian drones which were shot down, the first as it flew across the Negev Desert towards the Dimona NPP complex on October 6, 2012, and the second just 9 days ago as it flew south along Israel's Mediterranean coastline off Haifa. Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said at the time of the second Iranian drone shoot-down that he viewed the situation with the "utmost gravity." This morning that gravity appears to be pulling Israel and Syria towards the full-scale war I believed "The Syrian Missile Crisis" was going to provoke three years ago. What Syria does in the next few hours or days may well determine if we will be witness to the fulfillment the prophecy concerning Damascus, the rest of Syria, the cities of northern Jordan and northern Israel found in Isaiah 17.

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04 May 2013: The Israel Air Force appears to have launched another precision strike package against an anti-aircraft missile depot located somewhere in western Syria. However, the IAF has suddenly changed its tactics in launching a strike inside Syria by using only stand-off, 'fire and forget" air-to-ground missiles. No IAF strike aircraft actually entered Syrian airspace on this mission flown very early Friday morning. The F-16I Sufa strike package apparently launched their missiles from the skies over northern Israel and Lebanon at the distant targets.

As reported in Global SITREP A9-13: 

"Speaking of steroids, the GBU-39A/B is a flechette-on-steroids of high precision, high lethality, low-to-no-collateral damage aerial weapons. A dart of a bunker buster, if you will. This is the state-of-the-art weapon Israel could immediately deploy on its F-16I Sufa strike aircraft to hit nuclear related bunkers or human targets in downtown Tehran and barely disturb the person sleeping in the building next door. The US has had these weapons since 2008, and now, just five years later, Israel will get the GBU-39A/B too.

The GBU-39A/B is light, only 285 pounds - but it has a high explosive (blast velocity = 5 miles per second) warhead that weighs 205 pounds. This bomb is more than 2/3rds high explosives. Makes a bad day for the bad guy his last day on earth no matter where he is hiding from a launch point that is 60 miles away - and that is well outside the range of most point air defense systems Iran or Syria possess. Additionally, this weapon's guidance system cannot be jammed or spoofed."

I'd assess that since an anonymous US official announced this strike before an IDF spokesperson did that our guy was in effect taking credit for a strike on advanced anti-aircraft missiles that a joint intelligence operation had determined were destined for delivery to Hezbollah in Lebanon. As in the 1 February 2013 strike on the Qudssaya military depot in the Western Damascus suburb (see The "Morton Salt Scenario"), perhaps these new anti-aircraft missile systems are intended as payment for the sacrifice Hezbollah and IRGC troops are making for the Al-Assad regime's fight against Jihadist Sunni rebels all over the Syrian countryside. 

With respect to that strike on Qudssaya, after-action analysis of photography issued by the Syrian government itself revealed perhaps a dozen or more completely destroyed Russian-made SA-8 (NATO-Name: Gecko) 9K33 Osa (Wasp) tactical surface-to-air missile systems, an example of which is seen in the image below.

Hezbollah and the IRGC in Lebanon currently have nothing like this very capable and battlefield proven point air defense system in their known inventory. The introduction of this system into the valleys of Lebanon might constitute a tactical "game changer" situation for Israel in the coming war with Hezbollah and the IRGC. Israel appears to have launched two strikes to prevent the transfer of either the Syrian SA-8 systems or WMD materials to the enemy forces in Lebanon. The first was that apparently bottle-necked convoy of SA-8 Gecko systems, and this one a fixed, non-moving target such as a warehouse. There is no information which indicates the GBU-39A/B can strike a moving target like a convoy. As expected the next IAF strike or series of strikes could occur at any time, as could a Syrian or Hezbollah/IRGC response against Israel.  Whatever the case, the war is in progress and we're watching it closely. An update on the actual location of the IAF airstrike will be made when it has been determined.

Iran Completes Its Conquest of Lebanon

UPDATE: 20 January 2011: Today's DEBKAfile report, Hezbollah's eleventh-hour pullback from siege of UN sites and troops, might be dismissed by some as being fanciful, but I'm here to inform that there's a whole lot of facts behind it.

On December 6, 2010 the Lebanese newspaper The Daily Star reported that Hezbollah's political ally and world-class Jew hater, Wi'am Wahhab, made the following statement: "If the outside [world] is indifferent toward strife in Lebanon, we can confirm that in the event of strife, UNIFIL troops in Lebanon will not be left in peace." But this really isn't new news, Wahhab's been making the same threat since last July.

Obviously, Hezbollah's current military operational orders, as directed by the Iranian Ayatollah, were planned well in advance. The enhanced Western military presence referred to below indicates that our intelligence and military command authorities took these threats seriously. We'll soon see if Hezbollah is feeling froggy enough to go ahead and jump. It might be the last thing they ever do.

UPDATE 18 January 2011: As of early this morning Hezbollah and AMAL (AMAL is a former rival and secular Lebanese Shi'a militia) soldiers were seen taking up positions on the streets of Beirut. While this might seem to be much-ado-over-nothing in the crazy world of Lebanon, the streets in which these Shi'a soldiers were taking up fighting positions are in Sunni Muslim neighborhoods. The Sunni's are obviously very concerned with this turn of events.

The cause of the Hezbollah/Amal deployment is due to the U.N. STL Prosecutor, Daniel A. Bellemare, CONFIDENTIALLY filing his indictments in the 2005 assassination of PM Rafiq al-Hariri and the murder of 22 others with the Tribunal Registrar yesterday, 17 JAN 11. The Tribunal Registrar will next submit the indictment to the U.N. STL Pre-Trial (international) Judge. Thus, the U.N. STL has entered into the judicial phase of its existence. The (international) Pre-Trial Judge is expected to confirm the indicments and release them publicly. Most observers expect both living and deceased members of Hezbollah's leadership to be named in the indictments, with at least one French report (AFP) publicly indicating that Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamene'i to also be included among those indicted.

Additionally, according to new information from Al-Arabia, the former first President of the Islamic Republic of Iran Abolhasssan Bani Sadr, (now living in exile in France) has confirmed the U.N. STL indictments will name Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamene'i as well as both living and deceased members of Hezbollah as being the persons responsible for the assassination and murders. Bani Sadr reportedly stated that Khamene'i personally ordered the assassination of Rafiq al-Hariri saying, "only someone in my position can understand the necessity of such an action." Bani Sadr went on to state that he expects Ayatollah Khamene'i will now "liquidate" Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah, mostly likely due to his extemely poor handling of the U.N. STL situation.

UPDATE 12 January 2011: Today Hezbollah's threatened "Zero Hour" arrived at 4:30 PM Beirut time, 07:30 AM Eastern Standard Time.

The "Zero Hour" arrived with the resignations of all eleven Hezbollah government ministers from their posts. The effect of these resignations was the immediate collapse of Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri's government. The resignations occurred as an effective preemption of Prime Minister al-Hariri's meeting with Obama in Washington later today.

I believe Hezbollah and their militia allies will now move rapidly to fill the lack of a functioning government vacuum their long-planned action was designed to cause. The resignations of Hezbollah's government minister has the effect of being a coup d'etat.

This crisis may also become an impetus for the U.N. STL to immediately issue their long anticipated indictments of Hezbollah for Rafiq al-Hariri's assassination, and possibly for some form of Western military intervention to thwart Iranian military expansion into the Eastern Mediterranean.

The USS Enterprise (CVN-65) Carrier Strike Group (CSG), including Destroyer Squadron-2, the AEGIS cruiser USS Leyte Gulf (CG-55) and destroyers USS Barry (DDG-52), USS Bulkeley (DDG-84), and USS Mason (DDG-87) are enroute to the Mediterranean Sea in an augmentation of the US Navy's 6th Fleet.

27 November 2010: The Islamic Republic of Iran's long-term conquest of the Republic of Lebanon is a fait accompli. Once again the agenda of the Islamic Republic has not only trumped that of the inept and feckless Western Powers but it is in fact a de facto usurpation of the imminent, and so-called "inviolable" United Nations Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) indictments in the case of the 2005 assassination of Prime Minister Rafiq HARIRI.

This chessboard-like achievement was made evident as Western leaders slept early this morning with the arrival in Tehran of the current Lebanese Prime Minister Saad HARIRI. The Lebanese Prime Minister's trip to Iran ahead of the official releasing the the STL's indictments on the assassination of Saad's father belies Hezbollah's threatened "Zero Day" coup d'etat.

A report by the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC) published on Sunday 21 November, and aired globally on Monday 22 November, revealed that the U.N. STL's indictments provided irrefutable proof in the form of a loyal Lebanese officer's intelligence operation which identified senior members of Hezbollah as Rafiq Hariri's assassins.

According to documentation in the U.S. Library of Congress, Hezbollah has from its inception in 1982 has been a forward deployed element of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) when a small contingent of Pasdaran, a/k/a the "Army of the Guardians of the Islamic Revolution," a/k/a the Islamic Revolutionary Guards, arrived and set up shop at Baalbek in Lebanon's Bekaa Valley in 1982.

Therefore, Lebanese Prime Minister Saad-eddine Rafiq al-Hariri is this morning, and tomorrow the esteemed quest and the newest sock-puppet of the Iranian Ayatollah's regime, a regime who ultimately ordered the assassination of his father.

The word treason is probably in the forefront the minds of those few liberty loving Lebanese citizens who brought about the short-lived "Cedar Revolution" and now watch as their nation has been taken from them with nary a word or deed from the so-called democratic West. Never have I entertained the thought that the treachery of Neville Chamberlain would be eclipsed. Today I stand quietly corrected.