Global SITREP B3-17: Northern Front Action

 

Israel's Arrow Anti-Ballistic Missile System

Updated 18 March 2017: An IAF strike deep into Syrian territory on the morning of 17 March resulted in Syria launching a salvo of three ballistic missiles directed against Israel. This would constitute an unprecedented escalation of belligerence on the Northern Front by Syria. It may well be that Iran ordered the missiles to be fired at Israel.

24 hours later the media reporting that Syria fired anti-aircraft missiles appears to be correct. However, the use of Israel's Arrow ABM System against Syrian anti-aircraft missiles makes no sense at all. The use of the Arrow ABM System against incoming Syrian ballistic missiles made no sense yesterday, but in light of what actually transpired very early on Friday morning makes sense in that the Arrow ABM operators believed they saw a trio of ballistic missile launches.

Syrian 5N62 "Square Pair" Radar System

The image above is of the 5N62 target engagement radar system that is directly associated with the Syrian S-200VE 'Vega' air defense system imported from Russia. This system otherwise known in the West and Israel as the SA-5b Gammon SAM system. 

It was reported in Arab social media yesterday, and video footage was part of that report, that the fuselage of a destroyed SA-5b Gammon missile landed in a residential area near Idlib, Jordan. Two others reportedly fell in rural Israel where IDF troops have been searching for their remains. The above radar would without a doubt have been used to guide the SA-5b missile in the direction of IAF aircraft which at the time of the firing would have been well within Israeli territory and well out the the SA-5's range. So why fire them?

SA-5b Gammon Surface-to-Air Missile (SAM)

The map below illustrates at least part of the why factor.

Suspect flight path of the IAF Strike at T4 (Tiyas Air Base)

The line which begins over the eastern Mediterraneans Sea and enters Lebanon north of Tyre is the assessed flight path of the IAF strike mission aircraft "package". The package then used the Lebanon mountains as cover from Syrian radar to the east. North of Baalbek the package then turned northeast and made a full afterburner runs towards the T4 Air Base (Tiyas) which was being used to stage High-Value Target weapons for deliver to Hezbollah in Lebanon. The package then fired stand-off missiles to destroy all of the HVTs on their air order of battle (AOOB). The package then turned southwest and exited the target area towards northwestern Jordan and Israeli air space.

Here's where a pair of key assessments have to be made which have not yet been seen in any OSINT reporting. 

1.) The inbound leg of this strike mission was invisible to the highly capable Russian radar at Hmeimim Air Base near Latakia, Syria. It was invisible to IRGC-QF radar operators in Syria. It was invisible to Syrian air defense systems. Only Lebanese Air Force detected the IAF package, but they soon lost contact with it. Hezbollah did not see this package either, and it appears to have flown right up the Bekaa Valley in the heart of Hezbollahland, Lebanon. What is one to make of this? Four new words in the Israel Air Force vocabulary: F-35 'Adir' Stealth Fighter. I assure you, these four words are now also prominent in the Russian, Iranian, Syrian and Hezbollah military vocabulary also.

2.) No Russian, Iranian, Syrian or Hezbollah enemy had any clue this package was where it was at any point during this deep strike mission against very High-Value Targets (HVTs) at the T4 Air Base. In fact, they had no idea what had occurred following massive explosions at T4 until long after the IAF package had made its way safely back into Israeli airspace. Only then, and likely due to extreme rage powered by extreme red-faced embarrassment over the destruction of the HVTs, was the order given to blindly fire the longest-range capable missiles of Syria's air defenses, the rapidly aging SA-5 Gammon, towards Israeli territory to the southwest. One of the SA-5s was shot down by the Israeli Arrow ABM system as a potential ballistic threat; the other two were clearly out of fuel and descending and were not engaged.

As a result of this action on the Northern Front it seems obvious that Russian President Vladimir Putin could have paid much closer and more serious attention to what Israeli PM Netanyahu had told him during their recent meeting. This additional serious attentiveness would have made the summoning of Israel's ambassador to Russia unnecessary for the purpose "clarifications." That Israel will strike at the time and in the place of its choosing any shipment of arms from Syria or Iran to Hezbollah is beyond question. If I were Netanyahu I would have instructed my ambassador in Moscow to simply ignore the summoning. No clarifications were necessary.

This action is just the latest chapter of the unresolved war between Israel and Syria dating back to 1973. It will not be the last action, but it is certainly the most significant action as it comes with a strong potential for renewed hostilities.

There is also an ever bigger picture to be mindful of with U.S. and allied boots on the ground now operating in Syria. These are forces which Syria's puppet president has declared to be invaders of Syria's sovereignty. The bigger picture also revolves ultimately around the prophet Jeremiah's words in verses 23-24 of the 49th chapter. A much larger clash lies directly ahead, and it is one which results in the fulfillment of verses 25-27. Note also that the region of southern Syria (Bashan), and northwestern Jordan (cities of Aroer) where the shot down SA-5 crash landed, is integral to the prophecy of Isaiah 17 as seen in verse 2.