Global SITREP B3-17: Northern Front Action

 

Israel's Arrow Anti-Ballistic Missile System

Updated 18 March 2017: An IAF strike deep into Syrian territory on the morning of 17 March resulted in Syria launching a salvo of three ballistic missiles directed against Israel. This would constitute an unprecedented escalation of belligerence on the Northern Front by Syria. It may well be that Iran ordered the missiles to be fired at Israel.

24 hours later the media reporting that Syria fired anti-aircraft missiles appears to be correct. However, the use of Israel's Arrow ABM System against Syrian anti-aircraft missiles makes no sense at all. The use of the Arrow ABM System against incoming Syrian ballistic missiles made no sense yesterday, but in light of what actually transpired very early on Friday morning makes sense in that the Arrow ABM operators believed they saw a trio of ballistic missile launches.

Syrian 5N62 "Square Pair" Radar System

The image above is of the 5N62 target engagement radar system that is directly associated with the Syrian S-200VE 'Vega' air defense system imported from Russia. This system otherwise known in the West and Israel as the SA-5b Gammon SAM system. 

It was reported in Arab social media yesterday, and video footage was part of that report, that the fuselage of a destroyed SA-5b Gammon missile landed in a residential area near Idlib, Jordan. Two others reportedly fell in rural Israel where IDF troops have been searching for their remains. The above radar would without a doubt have been used to guide the SA-5b missile in the direction of IAF aircraft which at the time of the firing would have been well within Israeli territory and well out the the SA-5's range. So why fire them?

SA-5b Gammon Surface-to-Air Missile (SAM)

The map below illustrates at least part of the why factor.

Suspect flight path of the IAF Strike at T4 (Tiyas Air Base)

The line which begins over the eastern Mediterraneans Sea and enters Lebanon north of Tyre is the assessed flight path of the IAF strike mission aircraft "package". The package then used the Lebanon mountains as cover from Syrian radar to the east. North of Baalbek the package then turned northeast and made a full afterburner runs towards the T4 Air Base (Tiyas) which was being used to stage High-Value Target weapons for deliver to Hezbollah in Lebanon. The package then fired stand-off missiles to destroy all of the HVTs on their air order of battle (AOOB). The package then turned southwest and exited the target area towards northwestern Jordan and Israeli air space.

Here's where a pair of key assessments have to be made which have not yet been seen in any OSINT reporting. 

1.) The inbound leg of this strike mission was invisible to the highly capable Russian radar at Hmeimim Air Base near Latakia, Syria. It was invisible to IRGC-QF radar operators in Syria. It was invisible to Syrian air defense systems. Only Lebanese Air Force detected the IAF package, but they soon lost contact with it. Hezbollah did not see this package either, and it appears to have flown right up the Bekaa Valley in the heart of Hezbollahland, Lebanon. What is one to make of this? Four new words in the Israel Air Force vocabulary: F-35 'Adir' Stealth Fighter. I assure you, these four words are now also prominent in the Russian, Iranian, Syrian and Hezbollah military vocabulary also.

2.) No Russian, Iranian, Syrian or Hezbollah enemy had any clue this package was where it was at any point during this deep strike mission against very High-Value Targets (HVTs) at the T4 Air Base. In fact, they had no idea what had occurred following massive explosions at T4 until long after the IAF package had made its way safely back into Israeli airspace. Only then, and likely due to extreme rage powered by extreme red-faced embarrassment over the destruction of the HVTs, was the order given to blindly fire the longest-range capable missiles of Syria's air defenses, the rapidly aging SA-5 Gammon, towards Israeli territory to the southwest. One of the SA-5s was shot down by the Israeli Arrow ABM system as a potential ballistic threat; the other two were clearly out of fuel and descending and were not engaged.

As a result of this action on the Northern Front it seems obvious that Russian President Vladimir Putin could have paid much closer and more serious attention to what Israeli PM Netanyahu had told him during their recent meeting. This additional serious attentiveness would have made the summoning of Israel's ambassador to Russia unnecessary for the purpose "clarifications." That Israel will strike at the time and in the place of its choosing any shipment of arms from Syria or Iran to Hezbollah is beyond question. If I were Netanyahu I would have instructed my ambassador in Moscow to simply ignore the summoning. No clarifications were necessary.

This action is just the latest chapter of the unresolved war between Israel and Syria dating back to 1973. It will not be the last action, but it is certainly the most significant action as it comes with a strong potential for renewed hostilities.

There is also an ever bigger picture to be mindful of with U.S. and allied boots on the ground now operating in Syria. These are forces which Syria's puppet president has declared to be invaders of Syria's sovereignty. The bigger picture also revolves ultimately around the prophet Jeremiah's words in verses 23-24 of the 49th chapter. A much larger clash lies directly ahead, and it is one which results in the fulfillment of verses 25-27. Note also that the region of southern Syria (Bashan), and northwestern Jordan (cities of Aroer) where the shot down SA-5 crash landed, is integral to the prophecy of Isaiah 17 as seen in verse 2.

Global SITREP A9-13 : Prophetic Dominoes All Lined Up!

 U.S. Navy F-35 Lightning II - Israel Air Force "Adir"

28 April 2013: Preparations have continued which were postulated in the Eschatology Today article of 7 March 2009 entitled "Prophetic Dominoes." Global SITREP A9-13 will basically constitute an comprehensive update for that article. Those now four-year old strategic preparations have progressed to a very advanced, ready-to-go, now-or-never stage. Only the back-and-forth in relations between the United States and Israel regarding how to deal with the Iranian nuclear problem over these past fours years has kept a preemptive strike simmering in the interim. At the present time it does appear that a strike will occur before the summer months of 2013 have made their passage from our calendars. 

A very recent weapons agreement between the US and Israel has all the earmarks of being a virtual hardware upgrade reward for Israel's patience with the U.S., E.U. and U.N. diplomatic application of sanctions against Iranian nuclear progress. This is a hardware upgrade of such state-of-the-art American-made weapons being injected into Israel's armory that the total real-world military dominance I believe is made evident in the Lord's prophetic word found Jeremiah 49, Isaiah 17 and Psalm 83 is now completely unambiguous.

One piece of the new hardware is the F-35 Lightning II Joint Strike stealth fighter (image above) which Israel will shortly begin building its combat squadrons around in replacing its aging F-16A Hawk models. Traditionally Israel gives its own name to its aircraft and the F-35 will be no different as it has been christened with the Hebrew name Adir meaning Great, but conveying a more 21st century meaning along the lines of Unrivaled Awesomeness,  which is an apt description of this aircraft's capabilities. Air superiority on steroids in other words. 

There is also another bit of hardware that was all but missed. It's so new that the usually weapons savvy Israeli publications like YNET and DEBKAfile didn't even notice it. YNET News.com even reported the exact opposite, headlining that no bunker busters were in this weapon agreement. (Oops, I hate when that happens!)  The New York Times reported it, but they even they played a low-key note in reporting it.  What is "it"?  It is the GBU-39A/B, which true to this weapons true capability passed straight through almost undetected in only being identified as "advanced focused munitions bombs" in the Times article on the arms deal.

Speaking of steroids, the GBU-39A/B is a flechette-on-steroids of high precision, high lethality, low-to-no-collateral damage aerial weapons.A dart of a bunker buster, if you will. This is the state-of-the-art weapon Israel could immediately deploy on its F-16I Sufa strike aircraft to hit nuclear related bunkers or human targets in downtown Tehran and barely disturb the person sleeping in the building next door. The US has had these weapons since 2008, and now, just five years later, Israel will get the GBU-39A/B too. 

The GBU-39A/B is light, only 285 pounds - but it has a high explosive (blast velocity = 5 miles per second) warhead that weighs 205 pounds. This bomb is more than 2/3rds high explosives. Makes a bad day for the bad guy his last day on earth no matter where he is hiding from a launch point that is 60 miles away - and that is well outside the range of most point air defense systems Iran or Syria possess. Additionally, this weapon's guidance system cannot be jammed or spoofed.

It is my own assessment that the North Korean nuclear test of 12 February 2013 was in-fact an Iranian test of a weapon with an HEU fissile core. A possible second test will confirm it.  Global SITREP A7-13 spoke to the strategic implications. More recent news articles have made clear with respect to the North Korean nuclear warhead test, and the new US military assessment regarding a missile-borne delivery system for that warhead, that Israel regards Iran as now having fully taken a stride over the red line it established in consultation with the United States. A strike on Iran looks as imminent as it ever did and Israel is more prepared than ever to deliver that strike.  Add to this the looming WMD situation in Syria and the conditions for a "perfect storm" in the Middle East to accelerate the toppling of prophetic dominoes are all too apparent.